DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 16-20)
Our first significant storm in a while is in progress, and despite the fact that snow grabbed the headlines in most media, even though it is fairly confined to expected areas and seems to be following expecting accumulations, the biggest story with this system is the beneficial precipitation it is bringing, since essentially all of southeastern New England had been categorized in abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions as of the last update. So this will knock that back significantly, though we still need more precipitation to further deplete the deficit. We’ll see how that goes as we move into later April. But for now, it’s this system we have to deal with. And today, low pressure will do a cyclonic loop right over southeastern New England as it is captured by upper level low pressure tracking slowly eastward across there region. The stacked system, which you can visualize as an atmospheric un-stretched slinky, will then drift away tonight and Saturday. It’ll take a good amount of time for it to pull its moisture out of here, and even longer for us to be rid of its cloudiness, but it will happen eventually. Sunday, we’ll be in a westerly flow of slightly milder and mostly dry air, but a weak disturbance will still bring some cloudiness and a slight rain shower chance. For now I’m keeping that shower chance out of Monday’s forecast, a day which will be milder still. And finally the warmest day of the next five will be Tuesday, when we’re in a southwesterly air flow ahead of an approach trough, a day that I think will be dry as the next frontal system and associated moisture will still be far enough west to not impact this area.
TODAY: Cloudy with snow/mix inland areas especially higher elevations, rain most coastal areas possibly mixing with or turning to wet snow at times, tapering to snow/rain showers and areas of drizzle. Total snowfall accumulation for the event expected to be 3-6 inches in highest elevations of southwestern NH to around the MA border, 1-3 inches on mainly unpaved surfaces mostly west of I-495 and mostly near and north of I-90, and slushy coatings possible as far east as the I-95 region from I-90 northward. Highs 38-45. Wind E to NE 15-25 MPH, strongest coast with gusts 30-40 MPH possible.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers and areas of drizzle. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially coastal areas.
SATURDAY: Cloudy start with lingering rain showers and/or drizzle eastern coastal areas, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a slight chance of a passing light rain shower. Highs 45-52. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 56-63 South Coast region, 64-71 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 21-25)
A strong cold front is expected to move across the region from west to east April 21 which will itself be mild with rain showers, followed by much cooler but dry weather April 22-23. Moderating temperatures but rain chances go up again later in the period based on expecting timing of the next area of low pressure from the west in what will be a more zonal (west to east flow) pattern.
DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 26-30)
Continuing a zonal pattern idea but with a mean trough in eastern Canada and the northeastern US opening the door for some additional shots of chilly air. Overall pattern may trend drier again.