Category Archives: Weather

Friday June 26 2020 Forecast

7:10AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 26-30)

For the final 5 days of June, this is quite the complex forecast. So right to it. We start out with a trough over southeastern Massachusetts this morning, triggering a few showers. This shifts offshore as a second weak trough ambles its way eastward across the region during the day today. This will provide enough focus for at least clouds to pop, and probably a few isolated to possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms. It will once again be a case where most people don’t get anything, but those who happen to be under one of them can experience a heavy downpour. This moves off tonight, and more changes are on tap for the weekend. First a warm front will cross there region Saturday with varying amounts of cloudiness, although contrary to some model data bringing showers, in some cases steadier rain, into the region as early as the morning, I feel that we’ll hold off any wet weather threat until afternoon and that it will be more patchy in nature. However, if there is enough sunshine, I cannot rule out a couple heavier thunderstorms popping up near and just south of the frontal boundary. The real dilemma with this is that the front may never really cleanly get through the region, and may hang up around the MA/NH border, which could make for an interesting temperature contrast in the region by late in the day. We may have a case where an easterly wind is blowing near the NH Seacoast where it is quite cool, while areas west and south of Boston are much warmer and more humid. We may have to iron-out these details in “now-cast” form during Saturday. That front will push back to the south during Sunday, but will be in no hurry to do so, so there will be the continued opportunity for showers and thunderstorms to pop up. Again, don’t expect a widespread soaking rain event with this. It will struggle to provide much in the way of beneficial rain, with downpours running off, and a longer-lasting gentle rainfall not in the cards. When we get to Monday and Tuesday, we’ll find ourselves in a cooler but weak north to northeast air flow behind the front and a departing low pressure wave, but upper level low pressure over the region with cold air aloft keeps the atmosphere unstable so we can see diurnal showers and thunderstorms develop each day. Again, not a widespread rain fall, just pop up activity. And while it’s a little early to call for this, with cold air aloft like that sometimes these types of pop up showers/storms can produce hail as well. So that will be something to also watch for as we get into early next week. I must stress, however, that the overall pattern remains dry and with the exception of the South Coast, for now, we are in the early stages of a drought.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers near Cape Cod early to mid morning. Isolated showers / thunderstorms anywhere but favoring southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI this afternoon. Highs 78-83 South Coast, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind W-SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Early sun, then variably cloudy. Risk of showers and possibly a thunderstorm mid afternoon on. Highs 83-90 except 76-83 Cape Cod. Temperatures may cool back during the afternoon especially southern NH and northeastern MA. Wind SW 5-15 MPH may shift to E in southern NH and northeastern MA during the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. More humid. Lows 63-70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Lows 56-63. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 1-5)

Look out! Here comes July! A tiny bit more confidence today that the pattern for the early days of the month will be similar to what we have seen recently, and stubbornly, and that is high pressure that likes to be centered north of New England with weaker low pressure to the south. This is a dry pattern overall, limited shower activity, and no intense heat or humidity.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 6-10)

I cautiously lean toward a shift, finally, to a more zonal pattern, west to northwest flow in the upper levels, temperatures near to above normal, and continued limited opportunities for any showers and thunderstorms. Expect drought conditions to expand through the first third of July.

Thursday June 25 2020 Forecast

7:10AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 25-29)

A “cold front”, by definition, maybe more of a “dewpoint front” has passed through the region and you’ll notice that while today is still a warm early summer day, the air will not feel nearly as sticky as it did yesterday. There will be some cloudiness around at times, otherwise expect a decent amount of sun too. A couple of troughs will cross the region later tonight and Friday, both potentially triggering a few showers and thunderstorms. The greatest chance will be midday and afternoon Friday over the eastern half of the WHW forecast area (southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI) as the passage of the second trough will coincide with maximum heating. The weekend dilemma: timing of next feature. Models have not been performing in a stellar fashion of late and they can easily lead a forecaster astray, so instead of going over the various scenarios they present, I’m sticking basically with the same idea of a warm front / cold front combo over the weekend, with the best chance of unsettled weather occurring later Saturday and into Sunday, but not to be translated into “we’re going to have a rainy weekend”, rather just noticed as an opportunity for a few episodes of showers and/or thunderstorms. When we get to Monday, an upper level low in the area may trigger some diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 80-88. Wind W-SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm overnight, favoring southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT. Lows 61-68. Wind SW-W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers, possibly a few thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon, favoring southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Early sun, then variably cloudy. Risk of showers and possibly a thunderstorm mid afternoon on. Highs 83-90 except 76-83 Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. More humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 79-86. Wind SW-W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

Low to moderate confidence on this forecast, but I believe we will transition from a small scale blocking pattern (high pressure north, upper level low pressure nearby to south) with opportunities for diurnal showers and thunderstorms, into more of a zonal (west to east) flow with mainly dry weather during the course of this period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 5-9)

General zonal pattern, west to northwest air flow. Temperatures near to above normal, limited opportunities for any showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday June 24 2020 Forecast

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 24-28)

For several days now, I’ve thought that June 24 would be the greatest risk for the most places to see some kind of rainfall, and that June 26 & 28 would carry risk as well. These 3 days are now inside the DAYS 1-5 so we can hit all 3 events head on. First, obviously, today: Starts with low overcast which then breaks, much as it has the last couple days, but there have been differences each of these days. Monday we kept a regional onshore flow so the clouds were slow to break and the temperature were somewhat cooler. Tuesday we had more of a regional land breeze, clouds broke sooner, and it warmed more substantially. Both of those days so extremely limited shower activity mostly occurring west of this WHW forecast area. Today, with a cold front approaching, we have a southerly air flow and additional cloudiness moving in above the lower clouds, so even when they do break it won’t be to the brighter sunshine they broke to the last couple days in most cases. However, any sun we do get will help to destabilize the atmosphere so that there will be a risk of showers and thunderstorms anywhere in the region as we progress through the afternoon and very early evening. However, we will have to weight the risk highest west and north of Boston, where the combination of more sun (pre-threat) and better dynamics will exist. Anywhere that does experience a shower or storm this afternoon (and possibly very early evening to the southeast) could see brief but torrential rain, gusty wind, lightning, and even the risk of hail. But don’t take this as a definite and certainly not as a “going to happen everywhere” kind of thing. Also, while any rain is welcomed for our dry spell, heavy rain tends to run off quickly and while it can aid in being a minor recharge for a reservoir it will not help that much for agriculture as it doesn’t have a chance to sink into the ground. We’d need a slower, gentler rain for that, and nothing like that is in the cards. But I am getting ahead of myself. Once we get beyond today’s threat, we get a break for Thursday as a slice of drier air arrives. But a couple troughs need to move through from later Thursday night through Friday, and one or two rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms may occur with these. The greatest risk of something will be during the afternoon hours of Friday if we can combine one of those trough passages with daytime heating. The threat for Sunday (June 28) actually arrives first late Saturday as thunderstorms that form to our west and north may try to make a run at the region late in the day, well ahead of another frontal system. This front will be passing through the region during Sunday, so the threat of showers and storms will exist that day as well. For the weekend, the warmest / hottest day will be Saturday, when we are likely to see the most sun and a southwesterly wind. More clouds and a shower threat should limit our temperature rise for Sunday. But there will be additional fine-tuning to the weekend forecast over the next couple of days. Sadly, the combination of these 3 threats the next 5 days will do little to help what is pretty certainly a developing drought now. Will continue to monitor that.

TODAY: Cloudy start, then variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms, greatest chance north and west of Boston. Humid. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 82-89 elsewhere. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of showers and possibly a thunderstorm favoring southeastern MA & RI early evening. Patchy fog. Slightly less humid. Lows 61-68. Wind SW-W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Less humid. Highs 80-88. Wind W-SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm late evening or overnight. Lows 61-68. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers, possibly a few thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 83-90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. More humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 79-86. Wind SW-W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

An early summer version of a temporary blocking pattern, while the pattern wants to be zonal overall, a stronger ridge of high pressure in eastern Canada and weaker upper low extending from the Northeast to Mid Atlantic Coast sets up for the last couple days of June into the first few days of July, with a general but weak northerly air flow here in southern New England. This pattern would be dry most of the time, but would provide a daily opportunity for pop-up showers and thunderstorms in daytime heating. As for details – impossible to know this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 4-8)

General zonal pattern, west to northwest air flow. Temperatures near to above normal, limited opportunities for any showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday June 23 2020 Forecast

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 23-27)

The marine layer again covers the region to start the day today, but the low clouds are already somewhat thinner over portions of eastern MA / Boston area as of 7AM. Today will be quite similar to yesterday where we see the clouds break up for sunshine, but showers and storms that pop will be generally outside of the WHW forecast area. The one exception yesterday was a series of cells popping up around eastern CT near the RI border. That probably will not happen today. Temperatures come up just a tick from yesterday but still will be coolest in coastal areas. Tonight, more clouds arrive in advance of the only system that has a shot at bringing more widespread shower / thunderstorm activity – a cold front crossing the region Wednesday. Drier air arrives behind this front for Thursday, but a couple troughs crossing the region Thursday night and Friday may trigger a few more showers and possibly a thunderstorm. The next disturbance will be moving through the Great Lakes by Saturday with its warm front extending toward New England, probably meaning additional cloudiness and a shower threat by later Saturday, though I have a little lower confidence on forecasting this particular feature at this time.

TODAY: Clouds break for sun. Very slight risk for an isolated shower inland. Humid. Highs 77-84 coast, 85-92 inland. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH, some sea breezes likely.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely, favoring the afternoon. Humid. Highs 73-80 South Coast, 80-87 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers and thunderstorms evening. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Highs 80-88. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Lows 61-68. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers, possibly a few thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine then increasing clouds. Risk of showers late. Highs 78-85. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

Disturbance moving through brings a shower and thunderstorm risk June 28. There is a little uncertainty in how the last couple days of June and first couple days of July play out because there have been some indications of a little more high pressure in eastern Canada and perhaps a boundary nearby to southern New England. This makes for the possibility of some unsettled weather and a shaky temperature forecast. Will re-evaluate next update.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 3-7)

Look for return of a more zonal flow pattern with limited risks for any precipitation and temperatures near to above normal.

Monday June 22 2020 Forecast

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 22-26)

Yesterday’s thunderstorm activity fired closer to the coast than I expected and, while still isolated in terms of the entire region, was pretty impactful in the areas that it did impact, especially in terms of road flooding. Unfortunately, heavy rainfall like that does a whole lot of running off and not sinking into the ground to help alleviate developing drought conditions. And even with a few opportunities for additional showers and storms this week, the longer term dry spell will continue. Today begins with an extensive layer of marine air with low clouds over much of the region. Tuesday and Wednesday will also see some marine air to start, with the lower clouds probably confined a little more to coastal locations. These low clouds should burn away each day today and Tuesday but a coastal sea breeze will exist both days as well. During each afternoon today and Tuesday, a few pop up showers and thunderstorms may occur, mostly over interior locations. When we get to Wednesday, with high humidity in place and a cold front arriving from the west, that will be our best chance at a little more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, with timing of the front playing a roll in both coverage of rainfall and intensity of storms. A couple days to fine-tune that. Drier air arrives behind this front for Thursday, but a small disturbance may bring another round of showers to the region for Friday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy start, then becoming partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms favoring areas away from the coast. Humid. Highs 73-80 coast, 80-88 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy start for some locations, otherwise partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon over inland locations. Humid. Highs 77-84 coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely, favoring the afternoon. Humid. Highs 75-85, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers early. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A little less humid. Highs 80-88. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers, possibly a few thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

Warm front / cold front combo may bring some unsettled weather during the June 27-28 weekend. Next front brings a shower/thunderstorm risk around June 30. Upper low may trigger a few more storms around July 1. Temperatures variable, averaging slightly above normal, but may drop a little below normal at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 2-6)

Zonal flow (from the west, northwest at times). This is a dry pattern overall, but fast-moving disturbance can bring shower and thunderstorm risks.