How Much?

5:35PM

Hi all! Our storm will be getting underway this evening, and already has in some areas with some snow/mix falling, especially along and southeast of I-95. This area will expand and intensify during this evening, leading to heaviest precipitation sometime after 10pm, and especially after midnight, until sometime shortly before dawn.

As I have been worried about all along, it appears the intensity of the precipitation and the time of occurrence will be enough to produce some significant snow in much of the area from near Boston, west and north. There is still some uncertainty of where a rain/snow line sets up and oscillates, so amounts I am about to forecast are still subject to change. Here is what I expect from this system, snowfall-wise, through Friday.

Cape Cod & Islands: Nothing (rain) except perhaps a dusting of light snow Friday afternoon.

SE MA: Around 1 inch.

Immediate Boston Area: 1-3 inches with potentially a little more just NW of the city.

I-95 corridor: 2-6 inches with a very slight chance of isolated heavier amounts along and just NW of I-95.

495 belt south of the Mass Pike: 2-6 inches.

495 belt north of the Mass Pike including Worcester Hills: 6-10 inches with locally around a foot in the higher elevations.

NH Seacoast: 2-6 inches, lowest along the immediate shoreline.

Inland southern NH: 4-8 inches except 6-10 inches in the higher elevations of SW NH.

Lakes Region NH: 6-12 inches.

Be back later with a full forecast including an update on this storm and a look at the first weekend of April and beyond. Have a safe evening!

Quick Forecast Update … Not changing much yet!

12:55 AM

Call me stubborn. I’m still not convinced this thing goes just like the TV guys say. So once again, not making major changes and not giving final amounts until later this afternoon…

TODAY: Cloudy. Slight chance of very light rain or snow in the afternoon. High 40 to 45. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Steadier rain/snow developing, becoming heavier especially after midnight, most snow along and NW of the I-95 corridor, with more rain to the SE. A few inches of snow likely NW of I-95 with less to the SE, and very little south of Boston. Low 33 to 38. Wind E increasing to 10 to 20 mph.

FRIDAY: Overcast & stormy with rain and/or snow, possibly heavy at times. Several additional inches of snow accumulation occur where precipitation remains mostly snow, greatest chance of this will be inland and higher elevations. Temperature holding 33 to 38 but may fall slightly during the day.  Wind NE 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with snow showers tapering off. Low 25 to 30. Wind N 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy and windy. High in the lower 40s.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny and breezy. High in the upper 40s.

No Fooling?

12:00 AM

Well, well. Seems our old friend winter is returning for a late visit. After a couple of cold & dry March days, the month will wind-up with a dry & milder Wednesday followed by a cloudy & colder Thursday.  Thursday’s clouds will be from an initial low pressure system passing just south of New England. Some light rain and/or snow may reach the South Coast from this system, but nothing major will occur. As we flip the calendar to April, it seems mother nature will deal us a prank for April Fools Day, in the form of a late-season winter storm!

There is much to be determined with Friday’s storm system, including precipitation type, amount, and coastal flooding impact. It is looking more and more like this storm system will feature snow versus rain for a good part of the area, but some rain is likely, at least in the early stages of the storm. Though not a tremendous amount of cold air will be around as the storm arrives, these storms can and often do make their own cold air, dragging it down from above, in a process called “dynamic cooling”. There should be plenty of moisture available for precipitation.

The next update will have a bit more detail, as I want to step slowly into trying to detail the impact of this event. For now, here’s an updated Boston area forecast!

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 45 to 50. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 35 to 40. Wind S under 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain or mixed snow/rain developing from south to north. Low 33 to 38. Wind E increasing to 10 to 20 mph.

FRIDAY: Overcast & stormy with rain and/or snow, possibly heavy at times. Several inches of snow accumulation occur where precipitation remains mostly snow, greatest chance of this will be inland and higher elevations. Temperature holding 33 to 38 but may fall slightly during the day.  Wind NE 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy and windy. High in the 40s.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny and breezy. High in the 40s.

Boston Area Forecast

12:30 AM

Not a lot of change from the last discussion, so today we’ll just post up a new local forecast and look things over again as we get closer to potential rain & snow as the new month begins… Still way too early for any details on the late week storm threat. Models continue to be all over the place and in this case I find it better to just stick with the same wording, as there is plenty of time to work things out.

Forecast details…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 40 to 45. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 25 to 30. Wind NW 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 45 to 50. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind SW 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY: Chance of rain or snow. High 35-45.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Chance of rain or snow showers. High in the 40s.

The Week Ahead: March 28 – April 3

9:30PM

After a dry & chilly weekend that felt more like mid February than late March, it is time to take a look at what is expected during the coming week in the Boston area.

As expected, the medium range computer models are “all over the place”. They have a general idea of how the pattern is going to go during the next 7 days, but can’t agree on the details, even run-to-run with the same model. This can be a forecasters nightmare, but not necessarily. I’ve always found that the best approach to this situation is to not change much in the thinking you were forming when the models were a bit more stable. Also, drawing upon experience, having seen this setup before, can be helpful. With this in mind, I’m making only minor adjustments again to the outlook.

Summary… Look for a dry & chilly end to March during the next 4 days, thanks to low pressure over eastern Canada and high pressure over central Canada, not moving all that much, and feeding polar air into the region. A couple disturbances passing by from time to time will only produce clouds. One such disturbance is expected to move through tomorrow afternoon. The first attempt at the southern jet stream sending a storm this way will likely be thwarted by this northwesterly flow of dry air at midweek, as one stormo passes south of New England.  But as steering currents begin to bend around and the setup in Canada weakens, April should open with a bout of storminess sometime during the first 3 days of the month (we hinted at this last week as a potential period of stormy weather). It is still uncertain what type of precipitation will occur with this system, so I will be vague in my wording for now, and we’ll keep a close eye on the developing situation during the next few days.

Detailed forecast…

TONIGHT: Clear. Low 23 to 28. Wind W 10 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy in the morning. Partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon. High 40 to 45. Wind W 10 to 20 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Low 20 to 25. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph gusting to 25 mph. Wind chill in the teens.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 40 to 45. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 25 to 30. Wind NW 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 43 to 48. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind SW 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY & SATURDAY: Chance of rain and snow. Highs 35-45.

SUNDAY: Chance of rain or snow showers. High in the 40s.

Boston Area Forecast – Saturday Update

2:15 PM

Good afternoon everyone! A brisk, chilly late March day out there. Temperatures holding in the 30s along with a gusty W to NW breeze means wind chills dip into the upper 20s at times!

There is not much in the way of change in how things look over the next few days. Low pressure traveling well south of the area tomorrow may present a shield of high clouds across the southern sky, possibly enough to filter the sun at times. Otherwise, a dry and chilly pattern will last into the beginning of the week. As we get to midweek, moderating temperatures seem fairly certain. What is uncertain is the timing & track of a low pressure system approaching from the southwest. There are vast differences in the medium range guidance, but given the emergence of a split flow pattern – seperate northern (polar) and southern (subtropical) jet streams, the models will have a little difficulty with timing and phasing, or lack thereof, of the jet streams. History has shown me that a certain computer model (The European, or ECMWF), performs better, than the GFS. My forecast will be influenced more by that model, when it comes to potential events at the middle of the coming week. With this in mind, we will introduce increasing clouds to Wednesday’s forecast and precipitation to Thursday’s. I say precipitation, because there is about an equal risk of rain or snow, or a combination of the 2, and this far out from the event, it’s too early to say with any confidence which kind may dominate in the Boston area.

Forecast details…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 20 to 25. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph early, diminishing late.

SUNDAY: Sunshine may be dimmed by high cloudiness at times. High 40 to 45. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind W under 10 mph.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. High 35 to 40. Wind W 10 to 20 mph shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the lower 40s.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. High in the middle 40s.

THURSDAY: Chance of rain or snow. High 35-45.

EARLY DAYS OF APRIL: More frequent storminess with variable temperatures, averaging a little closer to normal.

Boston Area Forecast

4:50PM

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers possible in Essex and eastern Middlesex Counties before midnight. Low 20 to 25. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny in the morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 35 to 40. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph gusting to 25 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 20 to 25. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph early, diminishing late.

SUNDAY: Sunshine may be dimmed by high cloudiness at times. High 40 to 45. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. High in the upper 30s.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the lower 40s.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the middle 40s.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. High in the upper 40s.

QUICK PEEK: Unsettled weather more likely during the first several days of April.

Dry for Days

3:00 AM

It looks like we’re in for several days of generally dry, chilly weather, thanks to upper level low pressure over southeastern Canada (pushing the storm track to the south) and surface high pressure spending most of its time over south central Canada, ridging down over the Great Lakes (supplying chilly, dry air. This pattern appears to want to lock in for a while.

Our friends the GFS & Euro disagree on when this pattern will break, with the GFS wanting to slide a low pressure system across the Northeast March 30-31, and the Euro waiting for a day or 2 longer. For the  moment, I’m leaning toward the slower Euro. One thing seems pretty certain though, the overall pattern will be a chilly one for some time to come…

Looking out a bit further…I think we stay in a relatively cool pattern in early April, but return to a more active pattern with several storm passages in fairly rapid succession. And sticking with that original March 15 to April 15 window for a final significant snowfall for parts of the Boston Area, I still feel this is not 100% out of the question. Climatology alone supports this, and the pattern beyond the final days of March may also do same.

Boston Area Forecast for the next several days…

TODAY: Mostly sunny start, then a mix of sun & a fair amount of diurnal clouds. Slight risk of a passing light snow shower. High in the lower 40s. Wind W to NW 5 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds early, then clearing. Low in the upper 20s. Wind W up to 10 mph.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. High in the upper 30s to 40. Wind WNW 10 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low ranging from the lower 20s inland to upper 20s coast. Wind NW up to 10 mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 40 to 45. Wind W 5 to 15  mph.

MONDAY-THURSDAY: Continued dry weather. Sunniest early in the week. More clouds midweek. Highs closer to 40 Monday moderating toward 50 by Thursday.

Have a great day!

Updated Boston Area Forecast

Our little storm is becoming even smaller as it gets torn apart while passing south of New England. Snowfall will be minimal, but some accumulation is still possible today as a couple more areas of energy pass by the region. A lingering trough may produce a few additional snow showers tonight into Friday. High pressure will dominate the region with chilly & dry weather for the weekend.