May Day, then “Mayday”?

8:20PM

After a Saturday that featured lots of clouds until mid afternoon in the Boston area, then more sun toward the end of the day, we will be able to enjoy a sunny Sunday for the first day of May! But enjoy the sun while you can, because when it fades away on Monday I don’t expect we will see much of it for the balance of the first week of May.

High pressure building overhead will be responsible for the nice weather on Sunday, though expect the coast to be quite cool thanks to a sea breeze. By Monday, this high pressure area will be moving offshore, making way for a frontal system to move in. This front will be slow to move in, and then likely slow to leave, as the upper level air flow will become parallel to the front along the East Coast. Also, slow-moving upper level low pressure will dominate New England the deeper into the week we go. All this means that a lengthy stretch of unsettled weather is likely in the cards. It will not rain all of the time, but several periods of damp weather and generally below normal temperatures can be expected, starting about Tuesday. More on this upcoming unsettled pattern on tomorrow’s blog. Meanwhile, for now, the details for the Boston area go like this…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low ranging from near 33 inland valleys to 43 along the coast. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High ranging from near 50 along the shore to the lower 60s over the interior. Wind N up to 10 mph early, mostly E 10 to 15 mph from late morning on.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 42 to 47. Wind SE 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. High ranging from the upper 50s south-facing shores to the upper 60s inland. Wind S 5 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few showers during the day. Chance of rain at night. Low 51. High 63.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain in the morning. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Low 49. High 59.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of light rain and drizzle. Low 48. High 55.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 48. High 59.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 47. High 62.

Friday Forecast Update

2:45AM

TODAY: Mostly sunny this morning. Partly sunny this afternoon. High 70 to 75. Wind W 10 to 20 mph.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with isolated showers early. Partly cloudy late. Low 45 to 50. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. High 60 to 65. Wind N 10 to 20 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 43 to 48. Wind NW 10 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 64 to 69. Wind SW 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 51. High 75.

TUESDAY: Chance of showers. Low 49. High 62.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 45. High 59.

THURSDAY: Chance of rain. Low 45. High 55.

Thursday Forecast Update

3:00AM

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight risk of isolated thunderstorms. High 70 to 75. Wind S 15 to 25 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and a chance of thunderstorms early, then clearing. Low 50 to 55. Wind S 10 to 20 mph shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy in the evening. High 65 to 70. Wind W 10 to 20 mph.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 43. High 59.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 66.

MONDAY:  Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 51. High 74.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 51. High 63.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 49. High 58.

That’s Spring!

10:40PM

50 in Boston, 80 in Fitchburg at the same time this afternoon. 46 in Boston, 77 in North Adams at the same time this evening. That’s Spring in New England, and these contrasts are especially pronounced when you have a very warm air mass trying to move in, and being met with resistance from a still-cold North Atlantic Ocean. You don’t need me to tell you how cold the ocean still is if you  live near the water today, and were under a bank of low clouds & fog with chilly air, as areas well inland felt a bit like summer…

So, what’s coming up? Not quite an exact repeat Wednesday, but some similarities. The warm air will start to win out in more areas than it did on Tuesday, so areas that stayed in the 50s today will warm at least to the 60s tomorrow, with some reaching 70 or higher, provided the wind is not blowing with some trajectory off the water. I believe that shower activity will be minimized tomorrow, but cannot be completely ruled out. The main action will still be well west of New England with a cold front. This front is expected to cross the region during Thursday, which will be a warm day pretty much everywhere, but with a greater chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Later this week, expect a cool-down, but not with total sunshine, as a pool of chilly air has to cross the region from west to east. This usually means some cloud development, and we will probably see that both Friday & Saturday. And it’s still several days out, but Sunday looks like it will turn out nice.

Details for the Boston area…

TONIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog and drizzle. Low 45 to 50 through 4:00AM then warming into the 50s. Wind light NE to E, shifting to S up to 10 mph toward dawn.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. High 70 to 75 except 60s along the coast. Wind S to SW 10 to 15 mph gusting 20 to 25 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 55 to 60. Wind SW to S 10 to 20 mph.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms developing from west to east during the afternoon. High 72 to 77 except still cooler along some south-facing coastal areas. Wind S 15 to 25 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and a chance of thunderstorms early, then clearing. Low 50 to 55. Wind S 10 to 20 mph shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Sunny early, then partly to mostly cloudy. High 60 to 65. Wind W 10 to 20 mph and gusty.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 43. High 59.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 66.

MONDAY:  Increasing clouds. Low 49. High 64.

TUESDAY: Chance of showers. Low 51. High 63.

Monday Evening Update

7:25PM

A frontal system will continue to oscillate back and forth over New England during the next couple days. This setup makes for a tricky forecast since there is a very warm air mass just south of the front, and it is much cooler to the north of it. And we also can’t forget the chilly ocean sitting next to us. Instead of launching into why I think the Boston area will be stuck in the cooler air Tuesday and finally bust into the warmer air Wednesday, and then why I think some areas may reach 80 Thursday because a final cold front from the west will be delayed in arriving (until that night sometime), let’s just go ahead and look at the details of what I expect for Metro Boston (and areas not too far away) for the next several days, including a peek at the coming weekend. My apologies for the run-on sentence. 🙂

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy along and south of the Mass Pike early, mostly cloudy to the north. Generally cloudy all areas later at night. Showers and thunderstorms traveling west to east across southern NH and extreme northern MA later at night (most should stay out of the city of Boston though there is a risk of a few brief showers there). Areas of fog, some locally dense. Low 45 to 55, coolest over eastern NH, mildest in the southwest suburbs of Boston. Wind variable up to 10 mph.

TUESDAY: Areas of fog, some dense, mainly before 8:00AM, otherwise cloudy. Isolated showers possible. Chance of drizzle in coastal areas from Boston northward. High 50 to 60, coolest along coastal areas north of Boston, mildest in Boston’s southwestern suburbs. Wind NE 5 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 45 to 55 from northeast to southwest across the region. Wind variable up to 10 mph becoming S to SW 10 to 15 mph toward dawn.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible. High 65 to 70. Wind S 10 to 20 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 50 to 55. Wind SSW 10 to 20 mph.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. High 75 to 80. Wind SW 15 to 25 mph. Showers/thunderstorms at night.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 51. High 64.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 61.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 42. High 63.

The Week Ahead

A frontal system is oscillating back and forth over the Northeast. This will continue for the next few days. On Saturday we were on the chilly side. Today, Easter Sunday, we were on the warm side here in the Boston area. Tomorrow, we will find ourselves back on the chilly side again. The front is expected to push further north putting the Boston area into the warm air again Tuesday, only to sink back to the south and return the cooler ocean air Wednesday, but yet another northward push on Thursday will return the region to the warm air. A cold front coming in from the west should produce showers and thunderstorms before pushing the whole see-saw system out of the region. High pressure will try to build in at the very end of the week with mainly dry weather.

Detailed forecast for the Boston area…

TODAY: Cloudy. A few periods of light rain. High 45 to 50 coast, 50 to 55 inland. Wind light NE.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Low 43 to 48. Wind light variable becoming S.

TUESDAY: Cloudy to partly sunny. High 68 to 73. Wind S to SW 10 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind SW 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle. Temperature falling through the 50s. Wind NE 10 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY: PM showers & thunderstorms. Low 49. High 71.

FRIDAY: Isolated showers. Low 50. High 64.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 48. High 60.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 43. High 63.

Weekend Tweak

1:45AM

Good morning all! This is a quick update of the Boston Area Forecast. Not much of a new discussion this time, since there are no major changes in the overall thinking layed out yesterday, just some tweaks for timing and tracks of systems during the forecast period, yielding the following forecast…

TODAY: Overcast. Periods of rain, though a very brief mix with wet snowflakes may occur especially over higher elevations in any pockets of heavier rain during the morning. Embedded heavier showers and thunderstorms possible, especially midday through early afternoon. High 45 to 50. Wind SE 15 to 25 mph.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Lingering showers early. Patchy fog. Temperature rising into the lower 50s. Wind SW 10 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny morning through mid afternoon. Mostly cloudy with showers late afternoon. High 65 to 70. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely early. Periods of very light rain and drizzle possible later. Low 42 to 47. Wind N 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of light rain. High 50 to 55. Wind E 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Temperature rising to the upper 50s. Wind S 5 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. High 68 to 73. Wind SW 10 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 53. High 74.

THURSDAY: Chance of showers. Low 55. High 68.

Forecast Refresh

12:15AM

For those that celebrate, Easter Weekend (or Good Friday through Easter Sunday) has arrived. Will the weather cooperate? For the most part, the answer is yes. Two dry days will surround one wet one. And as it stands, the wet one (Saturday) won’t be all that wet. After the windy day Thursday which saw mixed sun/clouds & even a few sprinkles, we have seen a clear and cold night as winds dropped off. High clouds ahead of the Saturday system will spill across the sky at times on Friday, dimming the sun. Some scattered lower fair weather clouds may also develop, so it will not be a completely sunny day. An ocean wind will keep temperatures rather cool. This cool weather will continue Saturday, which will be a cloudier day. Episodes of rain are possible, especially in the afternoon into the night. The frontal system responsible for the Saturday unsettled weather will stall just offshore Sunday, but there should be enough dry air working in to result in at least a little sun at times, along with milder temperatures for Easter.

The details for the Boston area with a peek into next week as well…

TODAY: Partly sunny. High 50 to 55 but holding in the 40s right along the shore. Wind E 5 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind E 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a period of very light rain or snow during the morning. Periods of rain and a few embedded heavier showers possible during the afternoon. High 50 to 55. Wind SE 10 to 20 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain in the evening. Areas of fog. Low 45 to 50. Wind SW 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. High 60 to 65. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Chance of showers. Low 48. High 56.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 48. High 68.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of showers. Low 52. High 71.

THURSDAY: AM showers. PM clearing. Low 50. High 66.

Wind Blows The Dry Air Back In

10:55PM

Low pressure pulls away from the region Thursday as high pressure builds toward the area from the west. Between the two will blow some gusty winds, but with fair weather. High pressure builds overhead on Friday providing tranquil weather for Good Friday / Earth Day. The weather pattern continues to support progressive weather systems, and the next disturbance is expected to arrive Saturday bringing showers with it. A bubble of high pressure may clear the area out somewhat for Easter Sunday, but this is uncertain as it is difficult to time disturbances in this pattern.

For now, the details as I see them for the Boston area…

OVERNIGHT: Slow clearing but areas of fog. Low 38 to 43. Wind SW under 10 mph shifting to W and increasing to 10 to 20 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 54 to 59. Wind W 15 to 30 mph gusting around 40 mph at times.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 32 to 37. Wind NW 10 to 15 mph gusting over 20 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 58 to 63. Wind N 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 39 to 44. Wind N to NE under 10 mph.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain developing midday and afternoon. High 48 to 53. Wind NE to E 10 to 20 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain in the evening. Mostly cloudy with areas of fog and a chance of showers overnight. Low 43 to 48. Wind E 10 to 15 mph shifting to S and diminishing.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny in the morning. Partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon. High 61 to 66. Wind SW 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: AM rain/drizzle. PM showers. Low 46. High 56.

TUESDAY: Chance of rain. Low 43. High 54.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of showers. Low 51. High 72.

Monday Night Update

11:11PM

The weather during the day Monday was as expected. It was breezy with sun dominating the early part of the day, clouds dominating later. During this evening, a disturbance has been moving through with scattered showers. These will be moving out overnight. From here on, there is not a great deal of change in thinking from the discussion posted on the last blog. There is greater confidence that we will stay in the cooler airmass through Wednesday. The greatest chance for heaviest rain will be during the 2nd half of Wednesday as low pressure makes its approach. I don’t have much to add at this point about later in the week so the forecast remains essentially unchanged.

Here’s an updated Boston area forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers ending. Low 41 to 46. Wind N 5 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle or very light rain. High 49 to 54. Wind NE 10 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of light rain and drizzle. Low 43 to 48. Wind NE 10 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain and drizzle into mid afternoon then an increasing chance of steadier/heavier rain later. High 49 to 54. Wind E 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Chance of showers. Low 41. High 57.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 39. High 61.

SATURDAY: Chance of showers. Low 44. High 58.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 43. High 63.