8:55 PM

Let’s be realistic. It’s not going to be a stellar week ahead. While it is true there will be some warm temperatures early in the week, keep in mind it is just April, the ocean nearby is cold, and ’tis the season for cut-off low pressure systems. The latter will likely come into play after our warmer start to the week.

For those interested in what’s causing the weather…

A warm front will very slowly push across New England through Monday. Energy moving southeastward on the eastern side of a high pressure ridge (which brought warm to hot weather to the middle of the US the past few days) and warm air overriding the relatively cooler air over us will result in showers and thunderstorms tonight into Monday. As the warm front edges northeastward, these showers and storms will taper from southwest to northeast. Temperatures will never reach the 80s Monday, but will remain in the 60s near the coast while reaching the 70s inland as southwest winds increase. The immediate shore will be coolest as winds will take the longest to shift to south there. The South Coast of New England will remain in the 50s as the wind will be more directly off the water. Those areas may see low clouds and areas of fog much of the day Monday.

Low pressure passing well north of New England will drag a cold front and a couple low pressure troughs through the region Tuesday. Winds will shift to west then eventually north and these disturbances will be accompanied by scattered showers. Temperatures will remain mild on Tuesday.

Winds are expected to shift more to the northeast as low pressure develops along the cold front, as it slows down while moving offshore, Tuesday night & Wednesday. Although I am not sure of precise timing, I do expect this low pressure system to become cut off from the jet stream, meandering northward into New England later Wednesday and Thursday. This will bring unsettled weather and cooler temperatures. This is in disagreement with some of the fair weather midweek forecasts you may have heard, but this is how I feel it will play out right now.

This system should lift out of the region by Friday, but will make way for yet another low pressure system to bring additional unsettled weather sometime during next weekend. That’s Spring in New England.

For those who just want to know what it’s gonna do around Boston…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. More humid. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms, most numerous after midnight. Any thunderstorms could produce downpours as well as frequent lightning. Low 45 to 50. Wind SE to S 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs ranging from near 60 along the immediate coast to near 75 well  inland. Wind S to SW increasing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts around 30 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 55 to 60. Wind SW 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. High 65 to 70. Wind W 10 to 20 mph and gusty, shifting to N.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 42 to 47. Wind N 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 45 to 50 coast, 50 to 55 inland. Wind NE 10 to 20 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 42 to 47. Wind E 10 to 20 mph.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. High 47 to 52. Wind NE to N 10 to 20 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 44. High 55.

SATURDAY: Chance of showers. Low 42. High 54.

SUNDAY: Chance of rain. Low near 43. High near 51.

9:55 AM

Just a quick forecast update. Changed today to reflect more sun. I’m sure most of you will welcome it, and I don’t mind being wrong in having said mostly cloudy only to have a mostly sunny morning underway.  Clouds will increase later, but enjoy the bonus sun if you can, for now!

The rest of the forecast is unchanged for now. A full update for the week ahead will appear this evening! Have a great Sunday!

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Mostly sunny through the morning. Increasing clouds during the afternoon. High 50 to 55. Wind S to SE 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Low 45 to 50. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Cloudy with showers likely early. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny from mid morning on. High ranging from the upper 50s along the immediate coast to the 60s just inland to the lower 70s further inland (495 belt & inland Merrimack Valley). Wind E to SE 5 to 15 mph along the immediate coast in the morning shifting to S and increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Wind S to SSW 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts inland.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Low 53 to 58. Wind S to SW 10-20 mph gusting around 25 mph.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms too. High 67 to 72. Wind SW to W 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low near 49. High near 60.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low near 40. High near 58.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low near 46. High near 61.

4:20 PM

As another marathon baseball game goes on at Fenway (hopefully the Sox pull it out though it’s not looking great as of the writing of this blog) and a the final home game of the regular season wraps up for the Bruins with a win over Ottawa, a beautiful day is ongoing in the Boston area, thanks to high pressure over the region. This high will begin to give way, however, as low pressure moves toward the Great Lakes, pushing a warm front into the region later Sunday into Monday. Clouds and showers will accompany this front.

The question for the last several days is how warm will it get on Monday… Well up to this point, the blog I wrote a couple days back about what I expect to happen pretty much holds true to what I am still thinking. So without repeating the entire thing here, I will say that it will certainly warm up Monday, but that the summery temperatures will be confined to areas well away from the coast (the East Coast may see delayed warming due to the front being stubborn to clear the area, and clouds lingering, and the South Coast will have a wind more off the water south of New England).

A cold front will sweep through the region from west to east Monday night & early Tuesday, but will slow down offshore. A series of troughs behind this front and some upper level energy hanging along the coast will likely keep clouds and a shower threat going through Tuesday. Clouds may even linger into midweek, depending on positioning of high pressure and proximity of an upper level low pressure area cut off from the jet stream not far south and east of New England. For this reason, the wording of the detailed forecast will be a little more generalized, until I can pin down how things will play out.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 38 to 43. Wind S under 10 mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 50 to 55. Wind S to SE 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Low 45 to 50. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Cloudy with showers likely early. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny from mid morning on. High ranging from the upper 50s along the immediate coast to the 60s just inland to the lower 70s further inland (495 belt & inland Merrimack Valley). Wind E to SE 5 to 15 mph along the immediate coast in the morning shifting to S and increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Wind S to SSW 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts inland.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Low 53 to 58. Wind S to SW 10-20 mph gusting around 25 mph.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms too. High 67 to 72. Wind SW to W 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low near 49. High near 60.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low near 40. High near 58.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low near 46. High near 61.

Hi everyone! Again thanks for coming to visit this blog. If you’re a reader but have not commented yet, I encourage you to do so!

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-TK

Hi all! Limited time today, so just posting a quick forecast. No big changes from yesterday, so if you want to read more in depth thinking, go to the previous blog and skip over the part that already went by. 🙂

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog in deeper valleys where areas of frost are possible as well. Low 30 to 35 inland valleys, 35 to 40 elsewhere. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY: Sunny. High 60 to 65 except cooling back through the 50s near the coast in the afternoon. Wind variable up to 10 mph with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of passing rain showers. Low 43 to 48. Wind light SE.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers late in the afternoon or at night. High 55-65 coast to inland. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 45 to 55. Highs 55 to 65 coastal areas, 65 to 75 inland areas.

TUESDAY: Chance of showers. Lows 48 to 58. Highs 65 to 75.

8:45PM

Yes, it can reach 80 this time of year. It can even reach 90. In fact, one year ago today, Boston’s high temperature was 90 – a preview of the very hot summer of 2010.

You may have heard chatter on the news and net about “80s” on Monday in the Boston Area. Not so fast. This time of year, the ocean waters surrounding New England are still very chilly. The water temperature in Boston Harbor is in the lower to middle 40s right now. The waters just south of New England and Long Island may not be quite as chilly as that, but are still fairly cool. And both of these may be working against record warmth in eastern Massachusetts on Monday. In fact, I will venture to say now that Boston’s high temperature on Tuesday will be warmer than that of Monday. Why am I confident of the weather 4 and 5 days out? I’m not. At least not significantly. I am just aware of what can and often does happen this time of year, so I’m cautious to check myself into the record warmth camp right now. I think when it comes down to forecasting Monday’s high temperature for Boston (and most of eastern MA), we have to watch 2 things: 1) Does the warm front even push through far enough to not come back as a back-door cold front to significantly cool the East Coast of MA? and 2) even if we get into the warm sector, will the wind be too much from the south, transporting ocean-influenced air from south of  New England up across southeastern New England including Boston, keeping high temperatures down from what they would be if the wind was more westerly, off the warm land? Either or both of these may come true for parts of the region, so we’ll have to see how it plays out.

In the mean time, we have a nice stretch of weather underway, and our frosty dawn on Thursday morning was followed by a sunny day with light winds and pleasant temperatures. Friday will be similar, as high pressure building overhead will promote chilly temperatures to start, with areas of frost, sunshine during the day, and generally light winds, except a better chance for a more widespread sea breeze developing during the day. The sunshine will probably become filtered as high cloudiness from a disturbance passing to our south fans up across the sky.

High pressure will hold strong on Saturday, with a sunny, milder day. The coast may still remain on the cooler side, however, thanks to another developing sea breeze.

A disturbance passing by on Saturday night may result in a few scattered rain showers, but most areas should remain dry.

Sunday, warmer air moving in above us will result in more cloudiness. Another round of showers, this one possibly more widespread, should hold off until late day or evening.

Monday should be a warmer day in most locations, but there are uncertainties, as noted above. I’ll try to nail down what I think is going to happen as we get closer, but for now, don’t count on any 80s near Boston.

A couple troughs and a cold front will pass the region from west to east between Monday night & Tuesday night. This will likely result in a few rounds of showers, and may mean that Tuesday is quite a mild day, as the cooler air will probably reside behind the final frontal passage. This is a slight change in thinking from yesterday, when I thought we had a shot of ending up with a northeasterly flow and much cooler air sooner. But it’s several days away, so there is plenty of time to figure this out as well.

Detailed Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Clear. Frost likely. Low ranging from around 22 in the deeper valleys to near 32 along the coast. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunshine, filtered at times by high cloudiness. High 50 to 55 except cooling back into the 40s at the coast. Wind calm early then E up to 10 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog in deeper valleys where areas of frost are possible as well. Low 30 to 35 inland valleys, 35 to 40 elsewhere. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY: Sunny. High 60 to 65 except cooling back through the 50s near the coast in the afternoon. Wind variable up to 10 mph with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of passing rain showers. Low 43 to 48. Wind light SE.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers late in the afternoon or at night. High 55-65 coast to inland. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 45 to 55. Highs 55 to 65 coastal areas, 65 to 75 inland areas.

TUESDAY: Chance of showers. Lows 50 to 60. Highs 60 to 70.

4:30PM

Discussion…

A weak disturbance will cross southern New England tonight, producing clouds, and a brief period of rain or even some wet snow, greatest chance from the southern half of Massachusetts southward.

High pressure will build in from the north Thursday then hang on through  much of the coming weekend, with fair weather expected. It will start out on the cool side, especially near the coast, Thursday & Friday due to some onshore winds. Milder weather is expected this weekend. Clouds may increase on Sunday as warmer air from the SW tries to move in, first aloft, then toward the surface.

A strong southwest flow is expected to bring a preview of summer on Monday. A cold front will put an end to that by Tuesday. I am not sure if we will see clearing Tuesday or get into a period of northeast winds with damp weather, as often happens right after a warm spring day. There is plenty of time to figure out those details. In the mean time, enjoy the nice stretch of weather upcoming!

Detailed Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy through 2:00AM with some light rain showers changing to snow showers, especially along and south of the Mass Pike. Clearing after 2:00AM. Low 31 to 36. Diminishing wind.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 44 to 49 coast, 50 to 55 inland. Wind E 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear except partly cloudy along the coast. Low 30 to 35 inland, 35 to 40 coast. Wind E under 10 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High ranging from 45-50 coast to 55-60 well inland. Wind E 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog inland valley areas. Low ranging from 25 to 30 inland valleys to 35 to 40 along the coast. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High 55 to 60 except turning cooler along the coast. Wind variable around 10 mph with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind S 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. High 50 to 55 except cooler coast. Wind S to SE 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Low 46. High 73.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and drizzle. Low 44. High 53.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 39. High 60.

4:47PM

We have a friend on the way. This friend is a high pressure system that will be building across eastern Canada then down over New England in the coming days. It now appears that this high will be strong enough to suppress rainfall to the south and keep us dry Thursday into the coming weekend, including for the Red Sox home opener on Friday afternoon against the Yankees. Before we get there though, we still have wet weather behind the cold front that passed by today, and another disturbance that has to move through tomorrow evening with the threat of rain and even some wet snow.

Peeking into next week, an active but milder pattern is expected, with the main storm track through the Great lakes. The best bet for showers/rain is Tuesday & Thursday, as timing stands now.

Forecast details for the Boston Area…

THROUGH SUNSET: Mainly cloudy with periods of rain, ending from southwest to northeast. Temperature cooling into the 40s where it has not done so already. Wind W 10 to 20 mph.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Low 30 to 35. Wind W 10 to 20 mph. Wind chill in the 20s at times.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing cloudiness. High 50 to 55. Wind W 10 to 20 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain developing, changing to snow, potentially coating the unpaved surfaces inland and over higher elevations, then ending late. Low 31 to 36. Wind NW 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. High 50 to 55 except holding in the 40s along the coast. Wind N to NE 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind light NE.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. High 40 to 45 immediate coast ranging to 55 to 60 well inland. Wind NE to E 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 54.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 36. High 59.

5:30 PM

For a discussion about this week, go back 2 posts, as nothing has really changed in my thinking.

TUESDAY: Dense fog early, otherwise mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms pushing through from west to east between 10AM & 1PM, then a few periods of rain through mid afternoon. High near 60 early, then temperature cooling through the 50s into the 40s by late in the afternoon. Wind SW 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts, shifting to W by early afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 32 to 37. Wind W 10 to 20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. High 50 to 55. Wind variable 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain, possibly mixing with or changing to wet snow especially inland higher elevations. Low 32 to 37. Wind N 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. High 45 to 50. Wind N 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind N to NE 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain late in the day or at night. High 45 to 50. Wind NE 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY: AM rain. PM clearing. Low 38. High 54.

SUNDAY: AM sun. PM clouds, late day showers. Low 41. High 56.

For any of you interested in looking at model data (NAM, GFS, RUC, etc.) through NCEP, in case you were unaware, their web page is being taken offline tomorrow and being replaced with a new, easier to use version. I’ve tried it out and generally like it. In case you have not been there, you can find it here:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller

Good luck!

The sun has just set on a cool, breezy first weekend of April, which of course followed some late season snow. What do we have to look forward to for the first full week of April? Activity. I don’t see anymore late season snowstorms at the moment, but we will be looking at a fairly active pattern, as a fast-flowing jet stream sends several systems our way. As mentioned yesterday, the timing can be hard to pin down with this pattern, and I am going to try my best to get it close on this shot. Based on that thinking, I’ll be diverging from some of the guidance, applying my own ideas on movement of systems, and therefore influencing the forecast details.

Highlights…

Warm front rain Monday, shot of warm air at night.

Showers & possible thunderstorms with a cold front Tuesday.

Ripple of low pressure brings clouds and a shower threat by late Wednesday, and we may even see some surprise wet snow from this system at night.

High pressure to the north delays clearing Thursday, and approaching warm front holds clouds in on Friday, but hopefully rain stays away until after the Red Sox Home Opener against the Yankees.

Weekend starts damp and ends damp, with a dry interlude between.

Boston Area Forecast Details…

TONIGHT: Increasing cloudiness. Low 31 to 36. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph early, diminishing to calm.

MONDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain, may begin as brief sleet and/or snow early. Embedded thunderstorms may track west to east across northern MA & southern NH during the afternoon. Temperature slowly climbing into and through the 40s. Wind SE 10 to 20 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Temperature rising into the 50s. Wind S to SW increasing to 15 to 25 mph.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms pushing west to east across the region between mid morning and early afternoon. Lingering scattered showers possible afterward. High 60 to 65 early, then temperature cooling through the 50s. Wind SW 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts, shifting to W by early afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 32 to 37. Wind W 10 to 20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. High 50 to 55. Wind variable 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain, possibly mixing with or changing to wet snow especially inland higher elevations. Low 32 to 37. Wind N 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. High 45 to 50. Wind N 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind N to NE 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain late in the day or at night. High 45 to 50. Wind NE 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY: AM rain. PM clearing. Low 38. High 54.

SUNDAY: AM sun. PM clouds, late day showers. Low 41. High 56.

2:30 AM

No big changes in the previous discussion. Just posting an updated Boston Area Forecast. Have a great Sunday everyone!

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 48 to 53. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph gusting to 25 mph.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 31 to 36. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 mph early, becoming calm around midnight, then SE under 10 mph toward dawn.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of very light snow, sleet, and rain in the morning. Rain in the afternoon. High 40 to 45. Wind SE increasing to 10 to 20 mph, higher gusts especially along the coast.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Temperature rising through the upper 40s into the 50s, possibly reaching 60 in some areas. Wind SW 10 to 20 mph.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with rain showers and possible thunderstorms in the morning. Mostly cloudy in the afternoon with some lingering rain possible mainly to the south of Boston. Temperature falling through the 50s. Wind SW to W 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts in the morning, W to N 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY: AM sunshine. PM clouds. Low near 35. High near 52.

THURSDAY: Periods of rain possible. Low near 40. High near 50.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low near 34. High near 48.

1:00 PM

As the snow (where there is still some) from our April Fools snowfall melts this weekend, it will do so as a gusty west to northwest wind blows between our departed storm over the Canadian Maritimes and a high pressure area sliding across the US East Coast. We will see mostly dry weather though, with just a fair amount of clouds and a few scattered instability rain or snow showers this afternoon. Sunday will be sunnier day.

An active April pattern will continue, however, next week. Expect at least a couple of system to cross the region with unsettled weather. Although the models will have trouble pinning down the timing. Best bets at the moment are to expect rain ahead of a warm front Monday, showers with a cold front Tuesday, and another low pressure system bringing a chance of some wet weather around Thursday.

Boston Area Forecast…

THIS AFTERNOON: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered rain showers except rain or snow showers over higher elevations. High 49 to 54 but temperatures can drop several degrees quickly under any showers. Wind W 10 to 20 mph gusting to 25 mph.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early. Clear late. Low 30 to 35. Wind W 10 to 20 mph gusting to 25 mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 48 to 53. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph gusting to 25 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 31 to 36. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 mph early, becoming calm around midnight, then SE under 10 mph toward dawn.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of very light snow, sleet, and rain in the morning. Rain in the afternoon. High 40 to 45. Wind SE increasing to 10 to 20 mph, higher gusts especially along the coast.

TUESDAY: Rain showers likely. Low near 40. High near 55.

WEDNESDAY: AM sunshine. PM clouds. Low near 35. High near 50.

THURSDAY: Periods of rain possible. Low near 40. High near 50.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low near 35. High near 50.

5.0 inches of snow in Woburn last night & this morning. Happy April Fools Day!

Meanwhile, Sox have just started their season in Texas, under a partly cloudy sky with a game time temperature of 90!

Not doing a full forecast update right now as I’m heading out the door, so basically what follows is a copy/paste of the previous forecast, as I don’t see any reason to make big changes right now, and I’m uncertain how things are going to time-out after the weekend anyway. I will re-examine the upcoming weather and post a new forecast by tomorrow morning. Have a great weekend everybody!

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers early, then partly cloudy late. Low 25 to 30. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. High 40 to 45. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind NW 10 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 45 to 5o. Wind NW to W 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Late day rain. High in the 50s.

TUESDAY: Showers & thunderstorms. High in the 60s.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of rain. High in the 40s.

On this date 14 years ago, it was snowing. Hard. A lot of snow. Over 25 inches in Boston, 30 inches here in my hometown of Woburn MA. The April Fools Blizzard as it is known, was well underway, having started out as a rainstorm on Monday March 31. Though a different setup than the one we have today, there were some similarities, in that cold air being brought down from above helped to initially turn the rain to snow. But that was a much more dynamic, powerful storm system. This one won’t reach those levels, or anything close to that, until it is well beyond the region, heading for the Maritimes of  Canada, which stand to get quite a punch of snow & wind. Even parts of eastern NH & Maine will get a good hit of snow & wind from this, with over a foot in some areas.

Instead of going further into a discussion of the structure of today’s storm and why it’s doing what it is, I’ll just state that it all should be winding down as we go through the afternoon & evening, with all the heaviest precipitation, mainly snow from Boston north & west, with a mix to the south, and some rain toward the Cape. Many of these areas of southeastern MA & parts of RI already saw 2 to 4 inches of snow during last evening. As far as amounts go for the remainder of the area, there really isn’t any change to what I posted on the previous blog, so you can go there to see the breakdown.

What’s coming up? Our storm will be spinning about in eastern Canada this weekend, bringing drier air into our region, along with gusty winds and cool, but tolerable temperatures. Some clouds will be around Saturday, and Sunday should be the sunnier of the 2 weekend days. Looking into next week, another unsettled period of weather is expected from later Monday through Tuesday, with some threat for rain, showers, and even the potential for thunderstorms by Tuesday. This will be from a warmer system tracking to the northwest of the Boston area. It is unclear whether or not there will be additional storminess at midweek. This being many days away, I’ll just keep an eye on it and update as it gets closer.

Forecast details for the Boston area…

TODAY: Overcast in the morning with snow, heavy at times, through about 9AM from Metro Boston northward, lighter snow & rain showers to the south. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers of mostly snow and some mix/rain (to the south) in the afternoon. High 35 to 40. Wind N to NW 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers. Low 25 to 30. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. High 40 to 45. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 25 to 30. Wind NW 10 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 45 to 5o. Wind NW to W 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Late day rain. High in the 50s.

TUESDAY: Showers & thunderstorms. High in the 60s.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of rain. High in the 40s.