Spring-Type Upper Low To Bring Fall-Type Weather

9:02PM

The upper level pattern is more like Spring right now, with cut off low pressure areas, slow-moving, making timing of things difficult. This is true for my recent forecasts. If you look back to posts from last week, you can see that I initially thought we would have a rainy start to the week and a better ending. The low took so long to get here that the first half of the week was quite nice, the unsettled weather got here Thursday, and the fact that yet another upper level cut off low is about to form and hang around, the once nice-looking weekend outlook has to be adjusted to a more unsettled one. Another complex example of the inexactness of weather forecasting. So be it.

So to summarize, we’ve had our showers and storms for now, we have a nice day coming up Friday between today’s activity and a newly forming low that will bring unsettled and cooler weather for the weekend and probably into Monday of next week.

It still looks like we will see fair, milder weather by the middle to end of next week. It just will have a delayed arrival.

It wouldn’t surprise me of the weather has other tricks up its sleeve during the next week, but for now, this is the way I see it…

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 73-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms especially from 8PM to midnight, then scattered showers overnight. Areas of fog. Low 55-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. High 65-70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Low 52-57. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. High 59-64. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Chance of rain. Low 52. High 59.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 49. High 66.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 65.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 52. High 66.

Transition Time

2:30AM

Upper level low pressure that has been spinning over the Midwest for about a week is finally moving eastward and will take about 4 days to cross the Northeast. There will be a transition from mild and showery weather starting out this period to dry and cool weather by the end of it. Follow along in the latest forecast for the Boston area…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog in the morning. Episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms but not raining all the time. Mild and muggy. High 70-75 except 64-69 immediate coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely early, then becoming partly cloudy but with areas of fog forming. Mild and humid. Low 55-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Warm but less humid. High 73-78. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm early, then becoming partly cloudy. Cooler and drier. Low 50-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Slight chance of passing showers. Cooler and drier. High 63-68. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Cool and dry. Low 43-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Crisp and cool. High 58-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 66.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 49. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 52. High 75.

September Swoon

9:32PM

Yes, we all know the Red Sox have been in their own September swoon, but the weather is about to do the same, as a trough that has been hanging back to the west of us, far enough to allow mostly fair weather the past few days, finally moves eastward and brings showers into the region. Most of these will occur on Thursday. Behind this system, drier air will move in Friday, though there still may be a few showers due to unstable air. Much cooler air is expected over the weekend for the first couple days of October, but the sky will not be cloudless, as cold air aloft will promote cloud development each day. Looking ahead, we remain in a warmer than normal regime overall, so despite the weekend cool shot, it looks like a rapid warm-up takes place early next week.

The Boston Area Forecast…

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of light rain after midnight. Low 53-58. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers along with a chance of thunderstorms. High 65-70. Wind SE 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers especially in the afternoon. Low 51. High 72.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 45. High 64.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 41. High 59.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 64.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 72.

Boston Area Forecast

3:05AM

My latest forecast for the Boston Area… Full discussion to follow this afternoon.

TODAY: Areas of fog early, otherwise partly to mostly sunny. High 70-75. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 55-60. Wind E under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain midday and afternoon. High 65-70. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy fog. Low 55-60. Wind SE around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. High 65-70. Wind SE 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 56. High 70.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 48. High 59.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 44. High 61.

The Week Ahead

1:33AM

The humid stretch of weather continues, but rainfall was limited during the weekend as most of the moisture was going around the edge of a high pressure area over the western Atlantic, and staying offshore of New England. This will continue to be the case early this week, also aided by a high pressure area at the surface, building down from the Canadian Maritimes. This means mostly dry weather through Tuesday, lots of clouds at times but sun as well, and air still somewhat humid but not oppressively so. As we get to the middle of the week, the rain chances will increase as a cut-off low pressure area to the west moves westward and the ridge to the east also nudges westward, pushing the area of moisture back to the west as well. This low to the west is finally expected to shift northeastward, combine with another trough, and swing through New England at the end of the week, first with additional showers, then opening the door for some drier and cooler air by weekend, which is also the start of October! It should be noted that some of the computer guidance slows this trough down as it comes by here, and even tries to close it off, or cut it off from the main jet stream, allowing it to sit over or just east of New England next weekend. This scenario would be more unsettled than what I have in my extended forecast, but I consider it only a slight possibility at this time, hence the more optimistic forecast. Stay tuned for later updates…

Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT & MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Intervals of sunshine during the day Monday. Low 64-69. High 75-80 except slightly cooler coast. Wind light E.

MONDAY NIGHT & TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. A fair amount of sun during the day Tuesday. Low 61-66. High 70-75. Wind light E.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially midday-afternoon. Low 58. High 72.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 60. High 70.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 68.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 47. High 61.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 42. High 62.

Saturday Midday Quick Update

12:50PM

Boston Area Forecast Update…

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Intervals of sun at times during days. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may occur at any time but most times rain-free. Patchy fog mainly during the overnight hours. Mild to warm and humid the entire time. Daytime highs 75-80. Overnight lows 65-70. Wind variable mainly S to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Chance of showers. Low 59. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of showers. Low 57. High 68.

THURSDAY: Chance of showers. Low 56. High 69.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 71.

Boston Area Forecast Update

Re-posted Friday September 23 2011

4:26PM

REMAINDER OF TODAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Mild and humid. High 67-72. Wind S-SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Some heavy downpours. Areas of fog. Mild and muggy. Low 62-67. Wind light S.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Areas of fog early. Mild and humid. High 70-75. Wind S-SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 63. High 77.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Low 62. High 70.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Low 61. High 66.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 56. High 64.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 49. High 68.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 47. High 70.

Mild & Wet

1:30AM

Not a great deal of change from the previous post , so just a quick update here, and a new forecast to tweak timing.

A frontal boundary along the East Coast and tropical moisture riding up along this front means that we are in for a few unsettled days today into the weekend. The wettest weather is expected this morning and for a good portion of Friday. We may catch a break for at least part of the weekend as much of the wet weather may shift to the east and be mostly just off the coast Saturday. Just enough drier air may work in on Sunday for partial sun, but we will not be able to rule out a shower threat completely if any sun does pop out.

A more organized low pressure system in upper levels and a couple disturbances at the surface spell out a greater chance of rain for the beginning of next week.

The tropics have become a little more active again, with Tropical Storm Ophelia located far east of the Caribbean and moving to the west. This system may threaten the northeastern Caribbean Islands sometime over the coming weekend. Ophelia is many days away from being any possible concern to Bermuda or the US East Coast.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Cloudy. Episodes of showers, heaviest and most numerous during the morning. Mild and muggy. High 70-75. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy fog and isolated showers. Mild and humid. Low 61-66. Wind S under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Mild and humid. High 67-72. Wind S-SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 63. High 72.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 63. High 77.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Low 62. High 68.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Low 61. High 66.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 56. High 64.

September Muggies

9:45PM

The muggies are making a comeback, and will not be in a hurry to leave. The disturbance that brought the showers in today, more showers than I anticipated, is also responsible for bringing in the humidity. High pressure offshore will pump warmer air in for Wednesday, with continued humidity. A frontal system will move eastward into the region Wednesday night and Thursday, but stall in the region for a couple days, causing unsettled weather through Saturday. A sliver of high pressure may improve the weather for Sunday. Looking into next week – an unsettled weather pattern may end up the rule yet again. More later…

Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Patchy fog. More humid. Low 58-63. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny.  Humid. High 73-78. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers after midnight. Humid. Low 62-67. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of showers. Humid. High 71-76. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Showers likely. Low 66. High 73.

SATURDAY: Chance of showers. Low 59. High 70.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 78.

MONDAY: Chance of rain. Low 59. High 74.

TUESDAY: Chance of rain. Low 59. High 71.

Unsettled Days Ahead

10:35PM

Today was very likely the nicest day of the week. The next fair weather day, Wednesday, will be warm but also rather humid. In between, a frontal system crossing the region Tuesday will produce a few showers, but this system will be weakening, so shower chances are greatest west of Boston, and less from Boston southeastward toward Cape Cod. Another frontal system will move into the region Thursday, then stall along the East Coast, with a low pressure area forming along it, holding unsettled weather in through at least Friday, and probably for a portion of the weekend as well.

Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 50-55 except a few upper 40s over valley areas. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers from mid morning on, earliest and greatest chance north and west of Boston, lesser chance to the southeast. High 67-72. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Slight chance of showers early. Low 62-67. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. High 74-79. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Showers likely. Low 66. High 74.

FRIDAY: Periods of rain. Low 61. High 71.

SATURDAY: Chance of showers. Low 55. High 69.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 54. High 70.