Why not? It’s snowed in October before, and it will again. And all of this snow talk you are hearing today is based on speculation prompted by meteorologists reading computer models and news directors trying to activate the hype machine.
That said, yes, there are a couple shots of snow, even in the Boston area, before this week is out, but instead of trying to get all technical and then hedging, I’ll just outline briefly what I think is going to cause the weather, and then follow that with an updated forecast based on my best guess at this point. I’ll use this format for the next couple of days and only get detailed on specific events when it’s close enough to be confident enough.
No hype. Here goes…
Tonight… A cold front approaches, and passes the region by dawn. It’s relatively mild ahead of this front, and somewhat dry, so a weakening band of showers is about it for this.
Tuesday… Low pressure wraps up to our northeast, high pressure tries to build in from the west, and between them it will be on the windy side here, but nice, with sun & passing clouds, but a bit of an October chill to the air as it is in the 50s for most of the day.
Tuesday night… The front that goes by tonight will be sitting south of the region through the day then start to drift back toward the north, generating clouds that will move in.
Wednesday… The front remains south of the region and a wave of low pressure moves along it, passing south of New England, and a chance of light rain is the result.
Wednesday night… Clouds hang in, cold air filters in, but it is mostly dry between low pressure #1 and low pressure #2.
Thursday… Low pressure area #2 moves along the front, this one a bit closer and a bit stronger than the one before it. Rain overspreads the region. Cold air continues to filter in, cold enough to probably start mixing rain with snow in the higher elevations to the northwest of Boston by day’s end.
Thursday night… As long as the precipitation from low pressure #2 does not get really light or move out too quickly, enough cold air will be available to change the rain to snow from northwest to southeast across the area, the exception possibly being the immediate coast and areas south of Boston, which may remain just a little too warm. Even areas that were to go over to all snow would see little in the way of accumulation other than brief coatings on unpaved surfaces. The ground, after 2 very mild months in September & most of October, will be just too warm, so you won’t need to run out and get any ice melt.
Friday… Low pressure #2 moves away, high pressure moves toward the region, and like Tuesday we will have a bright but breezy day, with a chill in the air.
Saturday… Low pressure #3 threatens. And when I say threaten, I mean that I’m not even sure we will even have a #3. Just because 4 of 7 major computer models have a storm for southern New England guarantees nothing. It does mean we should follow it closely, as it should be cold enough to support snow in at least parts of the area if precipitation occurs. This day will be played very generically in the detailed forecast for now.
Sunday… Whatever happens, or doesn’t happen, on Saturday, will be moving away and expect a dry and chilly day.
Monday (Halloween)… Very early call: Dry weather. Cool air.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few rain showers crossing the region from west to east late. Low 44-49. Wind S up to 10 MPH shifting to W.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 55-60. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 35-40. Wind W diminishing to 5-10 MPH then shifting to N.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain. High 45-50. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain especially in the afternoon. Chance of rain/mix/snow at night. Low 38. High 48.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 29. High 49.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow. Low 32. High 44.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 50.
MONDAY – HALLOWEEN: Variably cloudy. Low 35. High 53.