New Year’s Weekend Forecast

8:29PM

A warm front will drift northward across southern New England tonight, putting a cap on any temperature drop. Low pressure will track across central and northern New England on New Year’s Eve with mild weather in the Boston area along with showery weather. Shower activity should be done in time for First Night outdoor activities. Temperatures will remain above freezing all night too, with the exception of some inland locations. New Year’s Day on Sunday will be fair and mild, but a change will be coming as several cold fronts and troughs move across the region from Sunday night through Monday night, resulting in some rain to snow shower activity as the cold air comes in waves. This will lead to the 2 coldest days of the season so far Tuesday & Wednesday of next week as some Arctic air is tapped in Canada and delivered to New England. There is still no significant snow in sight.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Temperature rising through the 30s but holding in the lower 30s in some inland areas. Wind variable from NE to SE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely, especially midday through mid afternoon. Chance of thunderstorms. Patchy fog. High 45-50. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.

SATURDAY NIGHT – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Slow clearing. Patchy fog. Low 31-36. Wind SW shifting to W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly sunny. High 50-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers before midnight. Isolated snow showers after midnight. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered snow or rain showers during the day. Chance of a snow squall in the evening. High 40-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 25.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 20.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 10. High 30.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 20. High 35.

Mild End To ’11

11:37PM

The weather pattern is making a shift, in a way. The upcoming pattern will feature temperature swings, with the colder shots more pronounced, and mainly dry weather. The snow drought continues.

A warm front will lift northward through the Boston area Friday, with clouds dominating. Low pressure will pass north of the region, across northern New England, during Saturday, and with mild air in place, we’ll see rain showers. This should exit, stage east, in time for First Night, which will be fair and relatively mild (that is, temperatures above freezing). Fair, mild weather will dominate for the first day of 2012.

As we enter the first full week of 2012, the coldest air of the season will dive out of eastern Canada and make a 2-day visit by Tuesday & Wednesday.

Detailed Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 20-25. Wind light variable.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 40-45. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers after 11PM. Temperature steady 40-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. High 45-50. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Clearing. Low 32-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Sunny in the morning. Increasing clouds in the afternoon. High 47-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers during the day, snow showers night. Low 37. High 44.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 23.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 4. High 19.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 10. High 35.

Briefly Colder, No Major Storms

3:51PM

A  cold front moving through with no precipitation, few clouds, but plenty of wind, will bring a shot of cold air into the Boston area tonight through Thursday night. High pressure north of the region will give a bright day on Thursday.  Clouds will move in rapidly by early Friday as a disturbance from the west moves in, probably in 2 stages, 1 during the day and a second one at night. The track of these disturbances will determine whether the Boston area sees rain/snow showers, or a period of mix/snow. Leaning toward option number 1 right now, but the second disturbance’s track may be close enough to go either way. A sliver of high pressure will bring dry weather for First Night and milder weather to the region for the start of 2012 on  Sunday, but a cold front approaching by late day will increase clouds and bring a threat of rain showers later Sunday. A second cold front on the observed holiday, Monday, will bring colder temperatures and a snow shower risk. Fair, cold weather is expected as we head toward the middle of the first week of 2012.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clearing. Low 18-23. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting over 30 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 20-25 early then rising back toward 30 later. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow showers in the morning and rain showers in the afternoon. High 40-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers changing back to snow showers. Snow accumulation less than 1/2 inch. Low 30-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers through mid morning. High 35-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Partly cloudy. Low 24-29. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly sunny in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. High 40-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 33.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 13. High 31.

You Blinked!

This is an edit/update of the previous blog entry.

2:39AM

Dry weather will be back today, with any snow showers hanging out in the Mountains far west and north of Boston as colder air moves in. Temperatures will fall during the day.

Expected a cold and dry Thursday as high pressure dominates.

By Friday, warmer air will try to move back in, and riding up over the cold air it will generate some snow and rain showers in the region. By late in the day and at night, a stronger impulse is expected to cross the region and may produce a general period of mixed precipitation to snow, with just enough cold air in place. By later Saturday, New Year’s Eve, mostly dry weather is expected but a gusty breeze and chilly air is likely. It will not be frigid, however, as some New Year’s Eves have been around these parts.

A milder day is expected for the first day of 2012.

The latest guidance for next week is in a little more agreement and is leaning a little more away from a big storm on the East Coast. But there are many days to monitor what goes on next week.

Forecast details…

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Temperature falling slowly through the 40s into the 30s by late afternoon. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting over 30 MPH, shifting to NW by late in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 15-20. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill falling below 10 at times.

THURSDAY: Sunny. High 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Steadier mix or snow at night. Low 18. High 38.

SATURDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Snow/mix early. PM snow showers. Low 29. High 37.

SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly sunny. PM rain showers. Low 29. High 44.

MONDAY – NEW YEAR’S HOLIDAY OBSERVED: Partly sunny. PM snow showers. Low 25. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 31.

Don’t Blink, You’ll Miss It!

8:25PM

A stormy night is underway, but the rain part of it will not last long. The heaviest is moving into the Boston area from the southwest as of 8PM and will be gone in about 4 hours. The positives about this are that it is quick-moving, the unfrozen ground allows absorption of the rain, and the lack of a frozen snowpack means less threat of flooding.

The main story with this system will be the wind. Strong south to southwest winds may occur with the heaviest rain especially  south of the Mass Pike. As the storm passes north of the area and moves away Wednesday, strong northwest winds are expected on the back side. Some minor wind damage may occur, and power outages, though not widespread, are not out of the question. Dry weather will be back for Wednesday, with any snow showers hanging out in the Mountains far west and north of Boston as colder air moves in. Temperatures will fall during the day.

Expected a cold and dry Thursday as high pressure dominates.

By Friday, warmer air will try to move back in, and riding up over the cold air it will generate some snow and rain showers in the region. By late in the day and at night, a stronger impulse is expected to cross the region and may produce a general period of mixed precipitation to snow, with just enough cold air in place. By later Saturday, New Year’s Eve, mostly dry weather is expected but a gusty breeze and chilly air is likely. It will not be frigid, however, as some New Year’s Eves have been around these parts.

A milder day is expected for the first day of 2012.

Longer range models are divergent in their forecasts for what goes on during the first week of 2012, with one showing weak weather systems and no major storms, while the other shows a major storm threat for the East Coast. In the interest of the New Year’s weekend upcoming, and many other things going on during the next few days for holiday week traveling, I’m going to just leave next week alone for now and look at it later.

On to the details…

TONIGHT:  Rain, moderate to heavy at times, with a chance of thunder, ending from southwest to northeast by 2AM, with partial clearing following. Temperature rising to around 50. Wind S shifting to SW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, especially south of Boston.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Temperature falling through the 40s into the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting over 30 MPH, shifting to NW by late in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 15-20. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill falling below 10 at times.

THURSDAY: Sunny. High 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Steadier mix or snow at night. Low 18. High 38.

SATURDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Snow/mix early. PM snow showers. Low 29. High 37.

SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly sunny. PM rain showers. Low 29. High 44.

MONDAY – NEW YEAR’S HOLIDAY OBSERVED: Partly sunny. PM snow showers. Low 25. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 31.

Quick Update – Tuesday AM

7:36AM

Full discussion and new forecast later today.

TUESDAY: Clouding up. Periods of rain by late afternoon. High 45-50. Wind SE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain early, then rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms through late evening, followed by scattered rain showers changing to snow showers from west to east overnight. Temperature rising into the 50s early then dropping to a low 30-35 by dawn. Wind SE 10-20 MPH shifting to SW with gusts up to 30 MPH in the evening, then shifting to W at similar speeds later at night.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. High 35-40. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH possible.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 35.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/mix. Low 25. High 38.

SATURDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 36.

SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly sunny. Low 18. High 35.

The Week Ahead (December 26-January 1)

6:46PM (editted at 7AM) to remove the overnight info.

Down the home stretch for 2011…

I hope all of you celebrating Christmas had a wonderful holiday!

Monday, we’ll see fair but windy and chilly weather as the energy moving offshore ignites an ocean storm. This storm will be too far out to threaten us with any precipitation. This storm will also race off to the northeast and be gone rather quickly, but this will make way for another storm approaching from the southwest on Tuesday. This rather strong package of energy is expected to cross the region in the form of deepening low pressure, cutting across southern and central New England, the center passing west of  Boston Tuesday night. This will bring a healthy period of rain starting during the day Tuesday and as we get into the warm sector in greater Boston we will see rain showers and even a chance of thunderstorms at night. As the low departs in the early morning hours of Wednesday, cold air will flow back into the region, and snow showers may whiten the ground in some locations. We’ll have to watch for a quick freeze-up of some wet surfaces as well. During the daylight hours of Wednesday, other than a few isolated snow showers, expect a dry but very windy day.

Thursday will be an in-between-systems day, with fair weather chilly air, and a diminishing wind. The last 2 days of 2011 (Friday & Saturday) will see the next low pressure system affecting the region. This one looks weaker. Its associated warm front may produce some light snow or mix on Friday, and as it gets beyond the region and starts to intensify heading toward the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday, New Year’s Eve, expect gusty winds and a chance of snow showers.

A look ahead to New Year’s Day (Sunday) reveals a tranquil start to 2012.

Detailed Boston Area Forecast…

MONDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. High 40-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 30-35 early then rising back toward 40 overnight. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to SE.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, becoming heavy at times during the afternoon. High 45-50. Wind SE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain early, then rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms through late evening, followed by scattered rain showers changing to snow showers from west to east overnight. Temperature rising into the 50s early then dropping to a low 30-35 by dawn. Wind SE 10-20 MPH shifting to SW with gusts up to 30 MPH in the evening, then shifting to W at similar speeds later at night.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. High 35-40. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with gusts over 40 MPH possible.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 35.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/mix. Low 25. High 38.

SATURDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 36.

SUNDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 35.

Christmas Day Forecast Update

10:57AM

Merry Christmas everybody celebrating this wonderful holiday!

Snow showers moved in a little early, forcing me to make a slight forecast adjustment. The ground has even been covered in some locations from around the Lakes Region of NH and even near Providence RI! A very light dusting here in Woburn as flakes have been drifting down since around 9AM.  Below is an updated forecast but very little change from the previous. A full discussion of the week ahead and updated forecast will appear later today or tonight.

Thanks to all of you for  supporting Woods Hill Weather, which marks its ONE YEAR anniversary tomorrow!!!

Boston Area Forecast Update…

CHRISTMAS DAY: Mostly cloudy. Periodic snow showers, may mix with rain southeast of Boston. High 35-40. Wind NW-SW 5-15 MPH.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely with some minor accumulation. Low 25-30. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. High 34-39. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouding over. Rain and a chance of thunderstorms later in the day and at night, may change to snow before ending overnight. Low 33. High 50.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Low 26. High 38.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 35.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 22. High 33.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.

Christmas Weekend Forecast

2:40AM

Merry  Christmas!

It looks like 2011 won’t be the year for a White Christmas for most of the region, but still a few areas may get coated white with a little snow today and a few more tomorrow, thanks to some ocean-effect snow showers on the South Shore today and more widespread snow showers later tomorrow as a potent disturbance moves in from the west northwest. It’ll sure feel like late December too, with temperatures actually running below normal today and barely recovering back toward normal Christmas. What else is coming up?

– Sunday’s disturbance ignites an ocean storm just too far east to do much on Monday.

– A Tuesday warm-up is followed by a fast-moving storm from the southwest, and with warmer air in place mostly rain will fall, but snow may sneak in at the end as cold air comes back.

– Quiet weather for midweek.

– A disturbance coming along a dominant northern jet stream will bring a chance of snow for the last 2 days of 2011. It’s too early to determine if anything significant will take place.

Boston Area Forecast…

CHRISTMAS EVE DAY: Mostly sunny except bands of ocean-effect clouds and snow showers on the South Shore with minor accumulation from near Marshfield southward. High 29-34. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 15-20. Wind N-NW 5-10 MPH.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Mostly cloudy. Periodic snow showers, may mix with rain southeast of Boston. High 35-40. Wind NW-SW 5-15 MPH.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely with some minor accumulation. Low 25-30. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. High 34-39. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouding over. Rain and a chance of thunderstorms later in the day and at night, may change to snow before ending overnight. Low 33. High 50.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Low 26. High 38.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 35.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 22. High 33.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.