Pieces Parts

9:37PM

I still hesitate to call this a storm, just because it comes in some many parts and pieces for this area. The advance first batch, caused mainly by warm air trying to move in from the southwest and riding up and over a bank of cold air pressing down from eastern Canada, is still with us, and will be in place for most of the night. But the snow will be varying in its intensity, and as warmer air starts to come in more above us, and milder surface air floods into coastal areas on an easterly wind, we’ll start to see some mixing with sleet and rain become a factor, especially within several miles of the shoreline and over far southern New England, as the night goes on, as well as into the day tomorrow.

What many are calling part 2 of the storm is a batch of showers and thunderstorms moving across Pennsylvania this evening, but that will mainly miss to the south. We do have to watch other showers and thunderstorms firing up to the north west and north of this region. The moisture from these may play a role in trying to redevelop precipitation in the belt over southern New England overnight and into Thursday. The final part of this long-duration event will come later on Thursday, as the upper level low pressure area crosses southern and central New England. This may produce some pockets of moderate to even briefly heavy snow, but it remains to be seen how widespread this will be and how much impact it will have.

Commutes…

Minimal impact with just wet roads along the coast and south of Boston for the Thursday morning commute. Minor to moderate impact further inland and especially higher elevations where a few periods of heavier snow could slick up roads.

The Thursday evening commute will also be impacted but again probably not in a widespread significant fashion. Though it will be colder and most areas that are precipitating are snowing, roads will have been treated and will likely be wet in most areas. Just periods of heavier snow showers may slick roads up anywhere in the region.

Friday morning commute should see no major impact unless some black ice has formed on untreated surfaces, especially walkways and driveways.

Remember that total snowfall accumulation can be deceiving in this type of event, as it is a prolonged event under marginal temperature conditions. Settling and melting takes place during the event. Example: An area that receives 6 inches of snow for the entire event will never have 6 inches on the ground.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT: Periods of snow, with sleet/rain along the coast, trying to push inland slightly, and also further south, trying to work north. Temperatures holding 30-35 most areas, coolest inland higher elevations, some upper 30s near the shore. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Periods of snow, except rain/mix to snow in areas to the south and east. High 35-40 early, then cooling back toward 30. Wind E-NE 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Snow ending. Mostly cloudy. Low 23-28. Watch for some icy spots. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

Total snow accumulation ranging from 1-3 inches coastal areas to 4-8 inches most inland areas, with some locally heavier amounts possible in a few higher elevations. (See above about snow-on-ground vs. accumulation forecast.)

FRIDAY: Cloudy. High 40-45. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Low 38. High 54.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 34. High 46.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 41.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 46.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 39. High 56.

Disorganized “Storm” Not Big Snow Producer For Boston

6:25PM

Ok, so the headline mentions Boston, but what about elsewhere? Patience is all I ask… 🙂

Here is the setup: High pressure to the north, with a cold air supply. Low pressure to the south, moving eastward in ripples or waves. These, along with some overrunning of warmer air over the top of the colder air, will produce periods of precipitation from mid or late afternoon Wednesday through much of Thursday. I say precipitation, because it won’t all be in the form of snow. Much of it will be, in parts of the region, and in some areas it may stay all snow (northern Worcester  County hills, southwestern NH). Elsewhere, enough warm air should work in aloft to bring some mixing. This will also become an issue when the precipitation intensity is lighter. In addition, a wind turning out of the east will bring modified air in off the ocean, which is running 3 to 5 degrees above normal for this time of year. So this drawn-out event will never really be that intense. The greatest chance for snow to accumulate in the Boston area will be roughly during the window of 8PM Wednesday to about dawn on Thursday, but this will depend on intensity of snowfall and the position of the line of mix/rain.

Once this mess exits Thursday night, clouds will probably hang tough on Friday, with the next storm due to arrive on Saturday. The track of this one, well north and west of southern England, spells mild temperatures and rain.

Expected snow accumulation from the entire event: Coating to around 1 inch immediate shore, 1-3 inches away from the coast to around Route 495, 3-6 inches outside Route 495, with greater than 6 inches in the hills of Worcester County and southern NH.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, southern NH…

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 24-29. Wind light NE.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of light snow possible in southern NH and extreme northern MA early afternoon but most snow holding off and advancing west to east across the region mid to late afternoon. High from near freezing in the hills well NW of Boston to near 40 along the coast. Wind NE to E increasing to around 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow, except a changeover line of sleet/rain working northward toward the Mass Pike, may push north of the Pike later at night and may approach the NH border, especially in northeastern MA. Precipitation intensity will vary from light to moderate. Temperatures holding around 30 in the hills well NW of Boston to near 40 along the shore. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Periods of snow/mix well northwest of Boston, rain/mix elsewhere, trending to turn back to lighter snow or snow showers from NW to SE later in the day. High ranging from around 33 Worcester Hills to the lower 40s along the coast. Wind E 10-20 MPH, shifting to N late.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Watch for some freezing of untreated surfaces. Low 27-32. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. High 40-45. Wind variable around 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Rain. Low 35. High 50.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Low 34. High 45.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 28. High 43.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Low 31. High 44.

Tuesday AM Update

Full discussion this afternoon…

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 40-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 24-29. Wind light N.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow late. High 35-40. Wind light NE.

THURSDAY: Mix/snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 44.

SATURDAY: Chance of rain. Low 38. High 50.

SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 32. High 42.

The Week Ahead

10:45PM

As we get ready to close out February and one of the mildest, least-snowy Meteorological Winters we’ve ever seen, and begin March, we’ll see several weather changes, which should be expected in this part of the country at this time of the year. The question is, will we see any significant snowfall? Many say “yes”. At this point, I say “not so fast”. As has been the case with most threatening systems this winter, I have my doubts that this one will come together in the right place at the right time to produce a widespread appreciable snowfall. However, the fact that this is a threat we are looking at for the Wednesday/Thursday time frame, a lot can change, and initially we will just give thoughts on how we think it could break down. Then as the time period draws closer, we’ll try to nail it down better.

Before we have to deal with whatever midweek brings, there will be a low pressure area cruising west to east across the US/Canadian border of VT/NH and then across Maine late Monday and Monday night. This will bring clouds into southern New England and possibly a band of light rain showers Monday evening, as temperatures will have moderated significantly during the day Monday.

High pressure will build across the region, centered to the north, on Tuesday, bringing dry and only slightly cooler weather. Slightly colder air will filter in Tuesday night into Wednesday, and at the same time a new low pressure system will be approaching from the west. The early indications for this is that it will come in 2 parts, the first bringing a chance of snow late Wednesday, with the greatest chance being the further south you go in southern New England. A second batch of precipitation is expected on Thursday with the  main low pressure area. It is really too early to tell what the impact will be, but a very early feeling is that it may be fast-moving, disorganized, and arrive at the time of marginal temperatures, so I will remain very reserved on calling for a chance of plowable snow, a practice generally not wise this far out even in a more clear-cut situation. Please check back on this.

Another storm at the very end of the week (probably Saturday) should travel to our north, bring warm air with it, and a chance of rain.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

OVERNIGHT: Some high clouds otherwise mostly clear. Low ranging from near 15 in the deep valleys to near 30 along the immediate shore, with  most areas in the 20s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouds increasing, may lead to a shower of rain well west of Boston by late day. High 44-49. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts around 25 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and a few rain showers crossing the region early, followed by clearing. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 40-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light snow especially southern MA and RI by late afternoon. Low 20. High 37.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow and mix. Low 30. High 38.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 38.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. PM rain. Low 33. High 44.

SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 22. High 39.

Saturday Update

10:47AM

Just a forecast update for now…

Adding more clouds and a few snow showers to the forecast for today. Already have seen a few very light snow showers that have migrated all the way from the Great Lakes across NY and southern New England.

Also, not making any changes to the Thursday-Friday forecast yet, but eyeing potential stormy weather for that time period… More later.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Isolated light snow showers. High 40-45. Wind W 25-35 MPH with gusts 45-55 MPH. Potential wind damage and power outages.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Low 25-30. Wind NW 20-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 36-41. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH through midday, diminishing slowly in the afternoon.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 19. High 41.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 46.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM light mix/rain. Low 29. High 40.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 33. High 44.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 42.

Wet Night, Wild Winds Saturday

6:47PM

Low pressure will continue to cross New England tonight then rapidly deepen as it departs into eastern Canada this weekend. Here in southern New England it will be warm enough for mainly rain to occur this evening, with some pockets of heavier rain and even some thunder possible. Mixed precipitation and snow, including some heavier snow for the mountains of northern New England, will take place. All of this will be heading out late tonight and early tomorrow, replaced by strong and gusty winds. Wind gusts around and possibly over 50 MPH on Saturday may be enough to cause damage and power outages in some locations. Though it will still be windy into Sunday, winds will be down some from Saturday. Temperatures will be mild Saturday though strong winds will make 40s feel like 30s. Seasonable chill is likely Sunday.

It still looks like a quiet start to next week with moderating temperatures, and unsettled weather heading in as we reach the midweek period. More on that as we get closer to it.

Forecast for Eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Overcast with areas of fog and periods of rain with a chance of thunderstorms, ending by midnight with breaking clouds following. Low 34-39. Wind NE-E under 10 MPH, shifting around to SW then increasing to 20-30 MPH gusting 40-50 MPH late.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 41-46. Wind W 25-35 MPH with gusts 45-55 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Low 25-30. Wind W 20-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 36-41. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH through midday, diminishing slowly in the afternoon.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 19. High 41.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 46.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM light mix/rain. Low 29. High 40.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 33. High 44.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 42.

Friday AM Update

7:31AM

The storm is in 2 pieces. The first one carried some moderate to heavy snow/mix/rain across areas south of Boston for a short time, with only spotty very light snow from the Mass Pike northward. This area will be moving out through mid morning with only a little spotty light snow/sleet/rain around for the remainder of the morning as the temperature hangs in the 30s with a very light N wind.

The next part of the storm will come through tonight, in the form of a strong cold front with showers of rain and possible thunder. The weekend continues to look dry but windy, especially Saturday, when local wind damage may occur as winds gusts as high as 50 MPH, especially over open areas and higher elevations.

Rest of the forecast for eastern MA, RI, southern NH from this afternoon on…

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Cloudy with spotty light rain and drizzle. Patchy fog forming. High 40-45 late day but may hang in the upper 30s in the valleys. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy through midnight. Rain showers and possible thunderstorms crossing the region from west to east. Becoming partly cloudy after midnight. Low 32-37. Wind variable eventually shifting to W and increasing to 15-30 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. High 40-45. Wind W 20-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH. Wind damage is possible.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Low 21. High 38.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 19. High 43.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 29. High 46.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light mix/rain. Low 30. High 44.

A Touch Of Winter, Then Rain Wins Out

4:32PM

Colder air is filtering into New England at this time and is setting the stage for a short-duration snow event Friday morning as a warm front crosses the region. The warmer air will win out at least aloft so that rain should take over before the steadiest precipitation moves out. It may never really get all that warm at the surface as the cold air gets stuck there. In either case, a cold front will sweep west to east across New England Friday evening with a round of rain showers (some possibly heavy including a chance of thunder). This will set the stage for a cool and very windy Saturday and slightly more tranquil conditions by  Sunday though still chilly with a gusty breeze.

The first part of next week should feature quiet weather with moderating temperatures. Unsettled weather may move in as we close out February (Leap Day) on Wednesday.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, southern NH…

TONIGHT: Clouds return. Snow developing between 4AM & 6AM except mixed rain/snow south of the Mass Pike. Low from the middle 20s inland valleys to lower and middle 30s immediate coast. Wind diminishing to calm.

FRIDAY: Overcast. Snow north of the Mass Pike, mix to the south, eventually changing to mix and rain all areas from south to north by noon with snow accumulations generally 1 inch or less. High 40-45 late day but may hang in the upper 30s in the valleys. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog early. Rain showers and possible thunderstorms moving west to east across the region mostly before 9PM. Low 30-35. Wind variable eventually shifting to W and increasing to 15-30 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. High 40-45. Wind W 20-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH. Wind damage is possible.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 38.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 19. High 43.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 29. High 46.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light mix/rain. Low 30. High 44.

Warmer, Then Wetter, Then Windier

4:39PM

The mild pattern goes on, with no snow in sight. There is some rain in sight however, in the form of showers tonight as the leading edge of warmer air moves in, and a more widespread rainfall Thursday night into Friday as a stronger low pressure area moves into New England. Behind this storm expect a very windy start to the weekend as it dries out.

Forecast for eastern MA and nearby neighbors…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely from around 8PM to just before sunrise. Low 37-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. High 55-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 40-45. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. High 50-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain, ending late. Low 40. High 49.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 30. High 45.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny and breezy. Low 25. High 40.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 43.

TUESDAY: AM rain showers. Variably cloudy. Low 34. High 43.