I still hesitate to call this a storm, just because it comes in some many parts and pieces for this area. The advance first batch, caused mainly by warm air trying to move in from the southwest and riding up and over a bank of cold air pressing down from eastern Canada, is still with us, and will be in place for most of the night. But the snow will be varying in its intensity, and as warmer air starts to come in more above us, and milder surface air floods into coastal areas on an easterly wind, we’ll start to see some mixing with sleet and rain become a factor, especially within several miles of the shoreline and over far southern New England, as the night goes on, as well as into the day tomorrow.
What many are calling part 2 of the storm is a batch of showers and thunderstorms moving across Pennsylvania this evening, but that will mainly miss to the south. We do have to watch other showers and thunderstorms firing up to the north west and north of this region. The moisture from these may play a role in trying to redevelop precipitation in the belt over southern New England overnight and into Thursday. The final part of this long-duration event will come later on Thursday, as the upper level low pressure area crosses southern and central New England. This may produce some pockets of moderate to even briefly heavy snow, but it remains to be seen how widespread this will be and how much impact it will have.
Minimal impact with just wet roads along the coast and south of Boston for the Thursday morning commute. Minor to moderate impact further inland and especially higher elevations where a few periods of heavier snow could slick up roads.
The Thursday evening commute will also be impacted but again probably not in a widespread significant fashion. Though it will be colder and most areas that are precipitating are snowing, roads will have been treated and will likely be wet in most areas. Just periods of heavier snow showers may slick roads up anywhere in the region.
Friday morning commute should see no major impact unless some black ice has formed on untreated surfaces, especially walkways and driveways.
Remember that total snowfall accumulation can be deceiving in this type of event, as it is a prolonged event under marginal temperature conditions. Settling and melting takes place during the event. Example: An area that receives 6 inches of snow for the entire event will never have 6 inches on the ground.
Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT: Periods of snow, with sleet/rain along the coast, trying to push inland slightly, and also further south, trying to work north. Temperatures holding 30-35 most areas, coolest inland higher elevations, some upper 30s near the shore. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Periods of snow, except rain/mix to snow in areas to the south and east. High 35-40 early, then cooling back toward 30. Wind E-NE 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Snow ending. Mostly cloudy. Low 23-28. Watch for some icy spots. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
Total snow accumulation ranging from 1-3 inches coastal areas to 4-8 inches most inland areas, with some locally heavier amounts possible in a few higher elevations. (See above about snow-on-ground vs. accumulation forecast.)
FRIDAY: Cloudy. High 40-45. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Low 38. High 54.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 34. High 46.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 41.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 46.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 39. High 56.