Saturday AM Update

9:12AM

Snow threat done! Anything left will be light rain/mix south of Boston. As one of my bloggers said, “if you sleep late you’ll miss it”. That was only partially true because many places never had anything to miss. 🙂

Updated forecast below…

TODAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain/mix mainly south of Boston through early afternoon. High 40-45. Wind light variable becoming E.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Low around 30 except some middle 20s inland valleys. Wind light N.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. High 45-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain showers, may end as snow showers after midnight. No accumulation expected. Low 30-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming NW.

MONDAY: Decreasing clouds. High 42-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 28. High 53.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain showers. Low 35. High 49.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 50.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 55.

EASTER WEEKEND SNEAK PEAK: Dry weather, warming trend.

A One-Two Tap

4:24PM

“Punch” seemed a bit too strong a word for the two systems that will impact southern New England this weekend. Both of them moving along a fast jet stream from west northwest to east southeast, the first will be a low pressure system passing just south of the region Saturday morning, bringing a swath of snow and rain to the region from the early morning to the midday hours of Saturday before tapering off. It will be cold enough above us to support snow with the heaviest precipitation, and this is slated to pass across southern Worcester County, northern Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where the “greatest” accumulations will occur in the highest elevations. Even in these areas we are not talking about more than 3 inches maximum (there is an outside chance of a 4 inch amount). Most locations will see less than 2 inches, and many less than 1 inch with slushy coatings being most common. In all areas that see snow, the accumulations will really take place only on unpaved surfaces, with the areas seeing the most only getting some slushy build up on side roads, sidewalks, and walkways. With temperatures above freezing, I’m not expecting icy grounds to become a problem, as anything that falls will have melted off surfaces by the end of the day Saturday. The second disturbance will appear in the form of a low pressure area tracking right over southern New England Sunday night and offshore by early Monday. With milder air in place, the bulk of this system will be in the form of rain, and on the light side, though it is  not out of the question that as colder air starts to work in as the system departs, any lingering precipitation may switch to snow, especially west and north of  Boston. If this occurs it will be during the early morning hours of Monday and the mild grounds should prevent any problems for the Monday morning commute, but follow updates just in case something changes with this.

Once we are beyond this, medium range guidance is coming into agreement in suggesting that much of next week will be on the quiet side, with one unsettled weather system late Tuesday and Wednesday interrupting what will be a mostly dry week. A chilly start to the week is expected, with a reinforcing cool shot at midweek. As we head toward the late week (Good Friday and Easter coming up for those who celebrate it), early indications are that we may be looking at a warm-up. But as recently as yesterday, some guidance showed a much cooler and unsettled pattern for this time period, so I speak of the drier/warmer pattern by then with some reservation.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Clouding up from west to east early. Cloudy with snow developing from west northwest to east southeast, except rain/mix over southeastern MA, southern RI, and Cape Cod to start with, and little or not precipitation in far northeastern MA and southern NH. Low from the middle 20s across southern NH to middle 30s over Cape Cod. Wind NW under 10 MPH shifting to N.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow, steadiest along and south of Route 2, less to the north, and some mix over southern RI and Cape Cod during the morning, then tapering off from northwest to southeast as light mix/drizzle in the afternoon. Snow accumulations from a slushy coating to 1 inch on unpaved surfaces except locally up to 2 or even 3 inches over the highest elevations west and southwest of Boston. High 40-45. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Low around 30 except some middle 20s inland valleys. Wind light N.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. High 45-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain showers, may end as snow showers after midnight. No accumulation expected. Low 30-35. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming NW.

MONDAY: Decreasing clouds. High 42-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun to clouds. Low 28. High 53.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain showers. Low 35. High 49.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 50.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 55.

EASTER WEEKEND SNEAK PEAK: Dry weather, warming trend.

Basically A Battle

5:27PM

Over the next several days, the old pattern will be battling with what wants to be a new one, so the short result is details and timing of weather systems will be a pain to deal with. The best idea at this point is to expect variable temperatures and several rather weak and fast moving systems. One such system is on its way out now, another will move through early Saturday, probably passing far enough to the south so that some snow flakes may fly in parts of southern New England Friday night or Saturday morning. Other disturbances are timed for later Sunday and later Tuesday to early Wednesday, but check back for tweaks in timing.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Clouds breaking in the evening. Clearing overnight. Low from the upper 20s remote suburbs and rural areas to middle 30s urban centers and coastline. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High from the middle 40s higher elevations to around 50 coast. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Chance of rain and snow especially in RI and the southern two thirds of eastern MA after midnight. Low 30-35. Wind NE around 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain and snow in the morning especially along and south of the Mass Pike with minor snow accumulation possible especially in higher elevations.  High 45-50. Wind NE 10-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers  late in the day and at night. Low 30. High 52.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 54.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 35. High 57.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Low 32. High 46.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 31. High 51.

Mostly Dry, Temperatures Swing Again

8:16PM

The players…

Tonight… Low pressure tip-toeing through the region and not making much noise.

Thursday… Low pressure moving away to the east but only whispering a little.

Friday… High pressure building in – bright and breezy.

Saturday… Low pressure passing south of the region.

Sunday… High pressure building in.

Next Week… Mild and dry start, cold and stormy finish?

The play (eastern MA, RI, southern NH)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Low 40-45. Wind W 5-10 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain or snow showers through early afternoon. High 45-50 then dropping to near 40. Wind N 10-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Low 30-35. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 45-50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain or snow early. Low 30. High 47.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 61.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 43. High 63.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 55.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 51.

Winter Hints

9:47PM

Short and sweet.

I don’t believe the NWS’s extended forecast.

I don’t believe the GFS model (ask me if you don’t know what I mean).

I do believe the European model (again ask me if you don’t know what I mean).

The pattern is going to feature near to below normal temperatures and overall mostly dry weather, but storm threats will not be completely absent. A weak one will pass through at midweek but not produce much precipitation. A more important one will be just south of New England this weekend, initially expected to stay just far enough away to avoid major impact, but should be watched. And I think we may repeat this process in the next week or so.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming light and variable.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of very light rain or snow in southern NH during the morning. Chance of very light rain in northern MA and light to briefly moderate rain in southern MA and RI in the afternoon. High 45-50. Wind light variable in the morning, S around 10 MPH in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Low 35-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain and snow showers in southeastern NH and eastern MA mid morning to early afternoon. High 43-48. Wind N increasing to 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY:  Partly cloudy and windy. Low 28. High 47.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 28. High 46.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain or snow. Low 31. High 42.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 29. High 49.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 33. High 52.

Cool, Mostly Dry

8:44PM

Though the temperatures have come way down from their record levels of last week and it now feels more like the month that it is, continued drier than normal weather will keep fire danger high during the next few days. A gusty wind through Tuesday afternoon will not help. A low pressure area will bring clouds and a chance of a little wet weather at midweek but this doesn’t look important. It may be cold enough as the system departs on Thursday for a few snow showers mixed in with rain showers. A similar system may sneak through southern New England on Saturday, at least serving to reinforce some cool air over the weekend. This pattern may continue into next week as well, and even though some of the longer range models have hinted at snow chances, it is simply too early to be sure if those chances will become reality. Something to watch, as snow can easily happen in New England during the Spring, regardless of what the winter has been like.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Low from the upper 10s to upper 20s, coldest low lying areas away from the city. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, dropping off to below 10 MPH over inland valley areas.

TUESDAY: Sunny. High 40-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty in the morning, diminishing in the afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 30-35 but some upper 20s inland valleys. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. High 45-50. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: AM rain/snow showers. Low 33. High 49.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 28. High 49.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers. Low 33. High 46.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 46.

The Week Ahead

8:44PM

The warm summer days of March are a memory. 😉

It’s back to reality for the week ahead. High pressure builds in Monday through Tuesday with dry, breezy, and chilly weather. A warm front will approach on Wednesday bringing clouds. Low pressure crossing the region Thursday will bring some unsettled weather. At this time it looks like it will be mild enough for rain, but some mixed precipitation cannot be completely ruled out at this point. This system will be beyond the region by the end of the week which will turn dry and seasonable.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Cloudy through midnight. Clearing overnight. Low 35-40. Wind NE under 10 MPH shifting to NW and increasing to 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 45-50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 20-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill in the teens.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 40-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 48.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain/mix. Low 32. High 43.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 50.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 51.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 37. High 56.

Weekend Update #2

9:21AM

Updated Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Cloudy. Chance of very light rain or drizzle through early afternoon. High 45-50. Wind E around 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy early then slow clearing overnight. Areas of fog. Low 35-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 45-50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 24. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 26. High 50.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain or snow showers. Low 32. High 46.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 51.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 50.

Weekend Update

5:23PM

Updated Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Slight chance of light rain before midnight especially north of the Mass Pike. Chance of light rain all areas after midnight. Areas of fog. Low 40-45. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Periods of light rain, favoring southern MA and RI through mid afternoon. High 45-50. Wind E around 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy early then slow clearing overnight. Areas of fog. Low 35-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 45-50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 24. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 26. High 50.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain or snow showers. Low 32. High 46.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 51.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 50.

Grey, Cooler Weekend

4:20PM

The weather this weekend will present itself in a more typical March fashion, mostly grey and cool. This will be due to high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south of  Southern New England. It looks like the bulk of the rainfall associated with the low pressure area will remain south of the region, which is not really great news, as we have been quite dry and fire danger has responded by reaching very high levels. This problem will likely become more prominent as much of next week also looks dry. The difference between recent and upcoming days will be that the extremely warm pattern will be gone, replaced by somewhat more seasonable temperatures.

Forecast for RI, southern NH, and eastern MA…

TONIGHT: Clouds moving in from northwest to southeast. Low 38-43. Wind N around 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. High 54-59 by noon before falling slowly. Wind  shifting to E around 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and a chance of light rain after midnight. Low 40-45. Wind E around 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Areas of light fog and a chance of light rain mainly during the morning. High 45-50. Wind E 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouds & sun, windy. Low 35. High 50.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny, windy. Low 27. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Sun & high clouds. Low 22. High 50.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain or snow. Low 30. High 40.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy, windy. Low 30. High 50.