April’s Exit

3:59PM

The month of April 2012 is on its way out after having been on the dry side (except one significant rain event). May will start unsettled with a wet day Tuesday, then lots of clouds dominating with an east wind hanging on for Wednesday, keeping it on the cooler side. Thursday-Friday should feature somewhat warmer air on a more southerly flow. There is some uncertainty as to exactly how the weekend plays out. It may trend cooler and still feature at least some cloudiness. Also keeping a chance of showers in the forecast through the period as we will be near a frontal boundary at times and a few disturbances will pass by. Do not expect widespread, heavy rainfall during the next 7 days.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Clouding over west to east. Low 43-48. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of mostly light rain. Areas of drizzle and patches of fog too. High 48-53. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of drizzle. Areas of fog. Low 43-48. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 53-58. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 48. High 67.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 53. High 72.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 51. High 66.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 49. High 64.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 42. High 64.

The Week Ahead

10:24PM

One more cold night tonight as high pressure builds across the region from the west. Clear skies, slackening winds, and super dry air will allow temperatures to fall to below freezing in many inland areas. The cities and immediate coast will not be quite as cold.

High pressure will bring sunshine and pleasant weather Monday after a cold start to the day.

The first few days of May will be more unsettled as a frontal boundary is nearby. A wave of low pressure will bring showers to the region on Tuesday. Less of a shower threat is seen for Wednesday though clouds may try to hang on if the wind stays off the water. By Thursday-Friday, a more southerly flow will result in warmer weather but there will be some shower risk as additional disturbances move through the region. Still not sure of the timing of showers and any sunshine, so temperature forecasts for the second half of the week are low confidence. It may continue unsettled for at least part of the weekend though no major storms are expected.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Clear. Frost and freeze away from the coast, especially in valley areas. Low 30-35 most areas except 25-30 inland valleys and 35-40 urban centers and coastline. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine, filtered at times by high cloudiness especially during the afternoon. High 58-63. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Thickening cloudiness. Rain arriving from west to east after midnight. Low 45-50. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain in the morning, steadiest and possibly moderate southern areas, lighter and more spotty to the north. Patchy light rain and drizzle during the afternoon. High 50-55. Wind E around 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 49. High 61.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 51. High 68.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 53. High 71.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 51. High 66.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 50. High 64.

Sunday Midday Update

11:15AM

Quick forecast update, only change for now is to tweak Wednesday’s high temperature down a little, otherwise not changing anything until re-evaluation of information before I write The Week Ahead post this evening. Have a great Sunday everybody!

Eastern MA, RI, southern NH…

REMAINDER OF TODAY:  Sunny. High 55-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Low from near 30 to near 40, coolest in the valleys and mildest near the coast. Wind NW diminishing to around 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High near 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Low 47. High 60.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 47. High 63.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 51. High 71.

FRIDAY:  Variably cloudy. PM showers. Low 53. High 69.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. AM showers. Low 45. High 59.

Saturday Evening Update

5:38PM

No major changes to the previous discussion. Cold front coming through tonight will bring a reinforcing shot of chilly air into southern New England through Sunday night. Both tonight and Sunday night will have frost and freeze risk for much of the region, though freezes are not likely near the coast and in urban centers. The greatest freeze threat will be outside the cities, in rural areas, especially valleys.

The dry and tranquil weather will continue through April’s final day on Monday. As we reach the first few days of May, a milder and slightly unsettled pattern will take hold, but it will still be an overall drier than normal pattern through next week. Shower threats seem to be concentrated on Tuesday and perhaps late Friday for next week, though with these days far enough out to be low-confidence in timing, please check back.

Updated forecast for southern NH, eastern MA, and RI…

TONIGHT: High cloudiness decreasing, clear overnight. Low ranging from the upper 20s inland valleys to upper 30s at the shore and in urban centers. Wind W under 10 MPH, calm in some valleys.

SUNDAY: Other than early clouds possible in southeastern MA and southern RI, sunny. High from the lower 50s in the hills northwest of Boston to the upper 50s interior southeastern MA. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low from near 30 to near 40, again coolest in the valleys and mildest near the shore. Wind NW diminishing to around 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High near 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Low 47. High 60.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 49. High 69.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 51. High 71.

FRIDAY:  Variably cloudy. PM showers. Low 53. High 69.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. AM showers. Low 45. High 59.

Dry Days

2:41AM

Departing low pressure and entering high pressure will set up a dry/cool last few days of April. A reinforcing cold front will move through southern New England Saturday night, but will not carry any precipitation with it.

As May begins next week, there may be a few threats of showers, and it will be milder, but the overall dry pattern will rule as shower threats look like they will be from weak and fast-moving systems.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Sunshine, filtered in the afternoon by high cloudiness. High 54-59. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: A band of middle clouds moving across the region NW to  SE. Low ranging from near 30 inland valleys to near 40 immediate coast. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds may linger over southeastern MA & RI early otherwise mostly sunny. High 54-59. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low from the upper 20s inland valleys to upper 30s coast. Wind NW slowly diminishing to under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High 58-63. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Variably cloudy with a daily risk of scattered showers. Overnight lows middle 40s to middle 50s. Daytime highs middle 60s to lower 70s.

Dry Spell Lurking

3:38PM

The whirlpool of unsettled air spinning about the Northeast US will be exiting via southeastern Canada during the next 24 hours as another disturbance travels west to east on a path just south of New England. This will keep slightly unsettled weather in the forecast through Thursday night. After this, a dry spell will return. The disturbance that earlier looked as if it would bring some wet weather Sunday is likely to pass out to sea, south of New England, with high pressure being the main player in the weather starting Friday and lasting well into next week.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with scattered showers through 11PM, clearing overnight. Patchy frost forming in outlying suburban and rural areas, especially in deeper valleys. Low 33-38 most inland areas, 38-43 coast and urban centers. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Chance of light rain mid afternoon on favoring areas south of the Mass Pike. High from the mid 50s Cape Cod and the Islands to lower 60s near the MA/NH border. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy through midnight with light to briefly moderate rain along and south of the Mass Pike and periods of lighter rain north of the Mass Pike. Clearing toward dawn. Low 40-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 54-59. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 56.

SUNDAY: Filtered sunshine. Low 39. High 58.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 42. High 56.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 37. High 61.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 43. High 63.

Low Spins About (What’s The 4-1-1?)

4:11PM

Low pressure will continue to spin in the northeastern US into Wednesday before departing via southeastern Canada late Wednesday and Thursday. The center of this low northwest of New England means a mostly southerly wind tonight, shifting more to the west as the low starts to move north of the region during Wednesday. Spokes of energy moving around this low pressure area will cause a chance of showers during this time. Thursday, another low pressure area will move rapidly eastward from the Midwest, bringing a chance of wet weather late day and mainly at night. The track of this low may be just south of the forecast area, which puts us in a risk of a steady period of rain at night, though it does not look like a heavy rain event. This low departs on Friday with drier weather and a gusty wind in its wake. Fair weather is expected Saturday but by Sunday, the next disturbance will return clouds and a chance of showers to the region. A peek into early next week shows mainly fair and slightly milder weather.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers. Low 41-46. Wind S 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers. High 55-60. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting around 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Low 42-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. High 57-62. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain. Low 45-50. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. High 55-60. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 39. High 57.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 44. High 53.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 42. High 61.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 63.

Shower Spokes

5:47PM

The storm that brought the rain and wind to the area will spin slowly into southeastern Canada through midweek. The circulation around it will send a couple disturbances across southern New England which will send some spokes of  showers through the region. After this low lifts away, another one will cross the region late Thursday and early Friday, but this one will be moving right along and will not be a big rain producer.

An early call on the weekend shows that it may be split with a decent Saturday and an unsettled Sunday.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

THROUGH EVENING: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers lingering. Temperature falling through the 50s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Low 43-48. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. High 58-63. Wind S 15-25 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 48-53. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly to partly cloudy. Chance of showers. High 57-62. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle. Low 44. High 55.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 39. High 57.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 41. High 58.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle. Low 44. High 53.

MONDAY: Slow clearing. Low 46. High 59.

The Week Ahead

10:20PM

A drought-denting rain is underway. This is not enough to end the drought over eastern New England, but it is enough to get the deficits down a little. And for the most part the rain is coming in such a way that flooding is not a problem. The heaviest rain areas are moving through during this Sunday evening into the early hours of Monday, with the heaviest axis shifting west of the forecast area as low pressure to the south pivots into the NY/NJ area. The large circulation around this system will impact the weather through Wednesday, but a dry slot moving up from the south will cut off the majority of the rainfall by mid morning Monday, and then only scattered showers will be around due to unstable air for the following couple days. A low pressure trough will remain in control as we get later into the week with another disturbance bringing a shower threat Thursday-Friday. Looking ahead to next weekend, departing low pressure should cause a windy/cool Saturday and high pressure should result in more tranquil weather for Sunday.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain with embedded heavier showers. Temperature rising from the upper 40s to the lower 50s. Wind E 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers becoming less numerous during the morning. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. High 60-65. Wind SE 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Low 48-53. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. High 58-63. Wind SW 15-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Low 48. High 61.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 46. High 58.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Low 48. High 56.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 55.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 59.

Forecast Update – Sunday Morning

9:17AM

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH.  No changes to previous discussion at this time.

Rainfall amounts for upcoming storm: 1/2 to 2 inches generally across the forecast area.  Slight chance a few isolated locations see 2+ inches. Some places get short-changed and come in under 1 inch in this despite all the hype of widespread 2-4 inch rainfall amounts.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle this morning. Periods of rain during the afternoon. Temperature falling through the 50s to the upper 40s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, possibly heavy at times. Low 44-49. Wind NE-E 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially in coastal areas and higher elevations.

MONDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the afternoon. High 60-65. Wind SE-S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Low 46. High 58.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Low 44. High 61.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 46. High 60.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 43. High 57.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 39. High 55.