Thursday PM Update

2:41PM

Day-before-wedding crazies continue! Here’s a quick forecast update…

High pressure rules through the daytime on Friday with great weather (a warm land breeze most areas today and a cooler ocean breeze Friday). An unsettled stretch begins Saturday as upper level low pressure parks itself over the Northeast. It won’t be raining all the time, but expect unsettled days with cooler than normal temperatures Saturday into the middle of next week.

Forecast for eastern MA, southeastern NH, and RI…

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly sunny. High around 80, 70s coast.  Wind N 10-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low from 50 inland valleys to near 60 coast. Light wind.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High around 70, 60s coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Low 58. High 68.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 70.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 53. High 66.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 52. High 65.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 52. High 65.

Wednesday AM Update

7:15AM

Updated forecast for southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may occur at any time but are most likely from late morning through late afternoon. High around 80 most areas, holding in the upper 60s to lower 70s where winds come off ocean water. Wind W-SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny early, then mostly sunny. High 70-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 77.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 60. High 72.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 58. High 68.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 53. High 70.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 55. High 68.

Temperature Contrast, T-storms, Then What?

5:09PM

Big temperature range across New England this Tuesday afternoon from the upper 50s to the lower 90s (coolest being in coastal Maine and hottest being interior southwestern New England). This, and a cold front approaching from the west, are triggers for thunderstorms. And indeed there have been some firing up during the afternoon, mainly across NY State and parts of VT into NH. A marine layer has held low clouds in for much of the day up until mid afternoon over a large portion of Middlesex and Essex Counties of MA and adjacent NH, but this has eroded away finally. However, this marine layer has been tough to get rid of, and remains in place. This will be a factor in limiting the storm potential for much of eastern MA for this evening. As storms try to  move in this direction, they will likely weaken and eventually fall apart. The warmer and more humid air has made it into parts of southeastern MA away from the immediate shore, but by the time any storms get into this region in the overnight hours, it will have cooled down and the atmosphere will not be too unstable there. So this means that most of the WHW forecast area of southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI, will not see any severe weather tonight. There will be some chance of storms, however, with the primary window of time being 9PM tonight to about 4AM Wednesday. Any storms may produce heavy rain and of course some lightning.

We still have to get the front to clear the region and another trough on Wednesday, so during the day there will still be some chance of showers and thunderstorms. The final trough will be moving offshore Thursday morning which will set the stage for 2 great days Thursday and Friday as high pressure dominates. Some clouds may return before Friday is done, in advance of the next low pressure system. This is expected to cross the region Saturday with some showers, though at this time it does not look like a widespread rain event. Sunday, we may see a few pop up showers as a cool upper level low crosses New England.

Updated forecast for southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI…

THROUGH EVENING: Clouds increase. Temperatures ranging from the 60s coastal northeastern MA, NH, and Cape Cod, to the lower 80s southwest of Boston. Wind variable from light onshore near the coast to S-SW around 10 MPH inland areas.

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms, a few possibly heavy. Low 63-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH may be gusty around any storms.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may occur at any time but are most likely from late morning through late afternoon. High around 80 most areas, holding in the upper 60s to lower 70s where winds come off ocean water. Wind W-SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny early, then mostly sunny. High 70-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 77.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 60. High 72.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 58. High 68.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 53. High 70.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 71.

Memorial Day Forecast Update

7:31AM

“They gave their tomorrows for our todays.” Please pause to remember them.

I apologize for the lack of a week ahead post last night. Spent most of the afternoon and evening in NH. This update will cover through next weekend.

The one change the previous forecast will be the lower temperatures for today because of the front still across the area, keeping the 80 degree temperatures that I was anticipating off to the south and west of much of the forecast area. One trade-off is that with a more marine-stabilized layer of air, there is less of a chance of showers and thunderstorms today.

This will not be the case later tonight through Tuesday and into Wednesday, as a slow-moving front will push through the area.

High pressure will bring drier weather Thursday and Friday before another low and frontal system brings a shower threat for the early part of the weekend.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Lots of clouds but intervals of sun. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are most likely near 495 in areas mostly south of the Mass Pike to around northern RI. High ranging from the 60s coast to the upper 70s inland areas south of the Mass Pike. Wind variable but often E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms, with the most likely time periods 11PM to 4AM overnight tonight, midday and afternoon Tuesday, morning and early afternoon Wednesday. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s. Wind 5-15 MPH mostly S through Tuesday shifting to W Wednesday.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 73.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 52. High 71.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 58. High 68.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 56. High 72.

Memorial Day Weekend & Last Days Of May

9:16AM

For eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

Three-day synopsis and forecast for the Memorial Day Weekend (Saturday-Monday):

This is a slightly tricky 3-day forecast because of the proximity of a frontal system to the area. This front has moved through from the northwest early this Saturday morning and is now settling near the New England South Coast. A front that close usually means that things can happen, and they will. I think for today, the vast majority of southern New England is rain-free, not too humid, but very warm. We cannot rule out a pop up shower or thunderstorm in  parts of RI or over Cape Cod and the Islands due to the front being nearby and some convergence (colliding air masses and/or wind flows that allow air to rise and form showers and storms). Any of this activity that does occur in that area will settle down tonight and expect a quiet but mild to warm night across southern New England.

Sunday, the front will still be sitting just to the south but should remain inactive in terms of showers/storms during the day. I’m optimistic that only some variable cloudiness will be the result of the front sitting there, as warm/humid air to the south starts to ride up and over a slightly cooler air mass to the north. As we often see during the late Spring and  Summer, these fronts can be the avenue for a cluster of showers and thunderstorms, and sometimes these are most potent in the overnight and early morning hours with this set-up. This may be the case here in which we see an area of showers and storms (some with heavy rain) moving through from west northwest to east southeast somewhere New England in the overnight hours of Sunday night and early hours of Monday morning. Since I am not sure exactly how widespread such an area would be and its exact track at this point, I am going to just add showers/storms to the forecast for Sunday night and try to pinpoint it as we get closer.

For Memorial Day on Monday, any of that activity should be winding down and moving out via far southern and eastern areas in the early morning, and I believe the front may be able to lift northward allowing much of southern New England to get into more humid and very warm air. I’m not 100% certain this front makes it all the way back through again, and that will determine how much sun comes back during the day and how warm it gets. So this is another day to check back on, but I’ll go the summery route for now. We may see showers and storms later Monday forming in NY and western New England and could see some try to approach at the very end of the day or at night.

TODAY: Sunshine more often than not but some clouds as well. Slight chance of a few showers or thunderstorms in RI and over Cape Cod and the Islands. Highs reach the middle to upper 80s most locations except 70s to lower 80s where winds come off ocean water. Wind W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows from the middle 50s valley areas far inland to lower 60s urban areas. Wind variable  up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy, but there will be some sunshine as well, though clouds may tend to win out more toward the end of the day. High from the upper 60s coast and Cape to middle 70s inland. Wind variable mostly E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms mostly after 11PM, some possibly heavy. Low around 60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, possibly gusty near storms.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9AM especially far southern and eastern areas. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm inland late in the day. High around 80, cooler where winds come off ocean water. Wind becoming SW 10-20 MPH.

Synopsis & forecast for the last 3 days of May (Tuesday-Thursday):

A cold front is expected to slowly move through the region on Tuesday, and may  never completely make it through or just wash itself out (like a very weak wave barely making it onto the shore at the beach). Either way there will be enough moisture around for showers and thunderstorms here. What I am not really sure about is how Wednesday and Thursday play out between the remnants of this front and very weak high pressure trying to build in. I think Wednesday is more likely to be the less-fair of the 2 and Thursday stands a better chance of improvement, but take this outlook with a grain of salt for now and check back for more details later. Sorry for being so vague but I just don’t really know how those days are going to turn out yet. 🙂

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 62. High 78.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 60. High 74.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 58. High 73.

Friday AM Update

7:44AM

Feeling better. Catching up on things.  Quick forecast update for now. Full discussion this afternoon! Weather isn’t looking so great the next several days (except Saturday). Memorial Day Weekend will not be a total washout, however there is a chance of showers and storms both Sunday and Monday.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog. High from the middle 60s south-facing coastal areas to middle 70s most inland locations. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Low 55-60. Wind light SW.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High 84-89 except 70s over Cape Cod and the Islands. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 60-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming SE.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. High 70-75 except upper 60s some coastal areas. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 60. High 80.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Low 62. High 77.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 59. High 73.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 75.

Shower Threat / Summer Treat

1:55AM

A weak southerly flow will dominate through Friday, including a weak disturbance drifting north northeastward through New England, means lots of clouds and a threat of showers and a few thunderstorms.

By Saturday, a cold front will approach from the west, turn the wind southwest, and bring in some summertime air, but also the threat of a thunderstorm with the frontal passage.

The next question, regarding the remainder of the Memorial Day Weekend, is how far will the front move offshore? It may stay close enough to the coast that a shower and thunderstorm threat will exist both Sunday and Monday. But it does not look like this front will create any long-lasting unsettled weather. Also, the air behind the front is not that much cooler than the air ahead of it, so expect above normal temperatures for the entirety of the weekend.

The warm pattern will likely continue into the middle of next week, with a shower and thunderstorm threat Tuesday with another cold front passing by, and drier weather by Wednesday as high pressure moves in.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Sun and clouds. Isolated showers north central MA and southern NH during the afternoon. High from the  middle 60s coastal areas to lower and middle 70s inland areas. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Low 55-60. Wind light variable.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. High from the middle 60s to lower 70s, coolest along the coast. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. PM shower/thunderstorm. Low 60. High 84.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 60. High 77.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms. Low 62. High 82.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 82.

Tuesday PM Update

3:11PM

Updating the forecast, basically because I completely blew the amount and frequency of rain for today. 😉

REMAINDER OF TODAY: Cloudy. Numerous showers and areas of drizzle/fog. Temperatures holding in the upper 50s to middle 60s, coolest coast. Wind light E.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low in the 50s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. High from the middle 60s to lower 70s, coolest in coastal areas. Wind mostly S around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 55. High 68.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 56. High 71.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 58. High 80.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 52. High 75, cooler coast.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 77.

Unsettled But Not Much Rain

8:18PM

Low pressure will hang around through Tuesday then drift away at midweek, but clouds will dominate through the midweek period with a daily risk of showers, though the risk will be decreasing with time. It is still looking decent heading toward and into the Memorial Day Weekend but we probably will have to deal with the passage of a cold front at some point (most likely Saturday).

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of showers with patchy fog. Low in the 50s. Wind E around 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. High from the lower 60s south-facing coastal areas to lower 70s inland. Wind E shifting to S around 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low in the 50s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. High from the middle 60s to lower 70s, coolest in coastal areas. Wind mostly S around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 55. High 68.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 56. High 71.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 58. High 80.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 52. High 75, cooler coast.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 77.

The Week Ahead

10:11PM

Upper level low pressure hangs near the northern Mid Atlantic Coast through midweek then should get pushed a little further south late in the week. Tropical Storm Alberto is expected to meander offshore of the Carolinas before heading out to sea by the middle of the week. For southern New England, a weak surface low pressure area will spin some moisture in from the Atlantic later Monday into Tuesday which will hang around into the middle of the week as well. This should get pushed out toward the end of the week as the northern jet stream gets a little stronger and further south and pushes things along.

An early call on the Memorial Day Weekend: Cold front passes through on Saturday which means a shower and thunderstorm threat, but not a widespread heavy rain event. High pressure builds in Sunday with a northerly wind and dry air, then moves offshore by Memorial Day when it warms up in most locations with continued dry weather.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Low from the middle 40s inland valleys to middle 50s urban centers. Wind light SE to E.

MONDAY: Sun shines in the morning in MA and southern NH except less so over Cape Cod through RI then clouds overtake areas further north during the afternoon hours. Showers developing from south to north. High from the lower 60s at the coast to lower 70s inland areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of showers with patchy fog. Low in the 50s. Wind E around 10 MPH becoming light and variable.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. High from the lower 60s south-facing coastal areas to lower 70s inland. Wind S around 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low in the 50s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. High from the middle 60s to lower 70s, coolest in coastal areas. Wind mostly S around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 55. High 68.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 56. High 71.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 58. High 78.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 52. High 73, cooler coast.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 77.