July Ends Wet, August Starts Humid

11:14PM

I blew this one. Never expected solid rain to get into eastern MA the way it did. However, blown forecast aside, the rain is beneficial, so it’s not a bad thing all together. Anyway, this mini sorta tropical low pressure area will be gone before we know it, exiting via the Gulf of Maine by early Wednesday. A second mini low will have to be watched as it may take a similar track or a track slightly further east later Thursday, otherwise, the coming several days will feature a typical August pattern as the new month gets underway, warm temperatures, increased humidity, and a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms. The most likely days for showers/storms will be Wednesday, Thursday, and Monday. Friday and the weekend will likely be rain-free in just about all locations.

Eastern MA, southern NH, and RI forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Rain ending southwest to northeast but remaining mostly cloudy with patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-67, mildest city and coast. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Decreasing clouds in the morning then redeveloping clouds by afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing, favoring southern NH and the 495 belt in MA. Highs in the lower to middle 80s, some 70s south-facing coastal areas. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-70. Wind light S.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the middle 80s., cooler some coastal areas. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH but some coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 67. High 89.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 68. High 86.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 67. High 87.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 69. High 84.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 85.

Tropical Toss

11:50PM

Well for a few days I’ve been calling for dry weather Monday and Tuesday, and for the most part that continues to be the case. However, a small tropical-type low pressure area will come northward in the western Atlantic on Tuesday and Tuesday night and scrape Cape Cod and the Islands with a shield of rain during this time. I’m not expecting this rain to make it all the way to Boston. It should stay just offshore. Watching it, in case…

As August gets underway, warmth and humidity will be the general rule, along with a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms, but this risk will not be too high, and much of the time any given location will be rain-free. We do, however, have to watch for the possibility of one more batch of tropical moisture near Cape Cod and the Islands late Thursday or Thursday night.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 61-66. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Rain or showers developing during the afternoon over Cape Cod and the Islands. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s, coolest in coastal areas. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH, becoming more E 10-20 MPH over Cape Cod and Islands late.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain and possible thunder Cape Cod and Islands. Some rain or showers may expand across southeastern MA perhaps up to near Boston briefly. Lows 63-68. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly near 495 north of the Mass Pike through southern NH. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Slight chance of rain Cape Cod and Islands at night. Low 65. High 82.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated PM thunderstorms. Low 65. High 85.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 87.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day thunderstorms. Low 67. High 84.

The Week Ahead

10:10PM

Low pressure pulls away to start the next week, and last 2 days of July will be dominated by a very small high pressure area, bringing mostly dry weather with mild to warm temperatures and mostly moderate humidity Monday & Tuesday.

The first 5 days of August, Wednesday through Sunday, will feature generally warm but humid weather with a daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms as weak high pressure sits off the East Coast and a weak trough of low pressure dominates the Northeast, with minor disturbances moving through it.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs middle 70s coast to lower 80s inland. Wind variable to SE around 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 62-67. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs upper 70s coast to lower 80s inland. Wind S around 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Daily risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows 60-65. Highs 75-85, coolest coastal areas.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly afternoon hours. Lows upper 60s. Highs in the 80s.

Sunday Forecast Update

1:21PM

This is basically a carry-forward of the forecast issued yesterday, as I have made only tiny tweaks at this point. A new update for the week ahead will be posted this evening.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Humid. Highs upper 60s coastal areas to middle 70s inland. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partial clearing north to south. Patchy fog. Still humid. Low 60-65. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 80-85. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 63-68. Wind S 5-10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 80-85 inland, 70s coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. Overnight lows 65-70. Daytime highs 75-85, coolest in coastal areas.

Soggy Saturday Evening, Sunday Too?

6:34PM

Some places get beneficial rain, and some places get localized flooding in a situation like this. Heavy showers and thunderstorms which developed over western New England during the day Saturday have moved slowly eastward and finally made it into parts of eastern New England (still yet to cross parts of RI and southeastern MA as of 6PM). The leading edge of this zone, especially south of the Mass Pike, has the heaviest thunderstorm activity, and the slow-moving nature of these storms is resulting in some flash flooding. This will continue to move across RI and portions of MA especially south of the Mass Pike during the first couple hours of Saturday evening, with mostly moderate to occasionally heavy but more beneficial rain to the north. Later tonight, activity will subside. However, with low pressure riding along a front just to the south, expect clouds and occasional showers to last through Sunday.

Monday & Tuesday will bring a break as a small area of high pressure builds in.

Starting Wednesday, tropical moisture will make a comeback and stay for at least a few days, bringing humid weather and daily shower and thunderstorm threats.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THROUGH EARLY EVENING (REMAINING DAYLIGHT): Thunderstorms advance eastward across RI and southeastern MA with downpours and local flash flooding. Elsewhere, rain and showers with a chance of a few additional rumbles of thunder. Temperatures in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind light variable.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Weakening thunderstorms arrive on Cape  Cod as mostly showers with a few rumbles of thunder. Elsewhere, showers and rain diminishing. Areas of fog. Humid. Lows in the middle to upper 60s. Wind light variable to NE.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periodic showers. Humid. Highs upper 60s coastal areas to middle 70s inland. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partial clearing north to south. Patchy fog. Still humid. Low 60-65. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 80-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 63-68. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. More humid. Highs 80-85. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. Overnight lows 65-70. Daytime highs 75-85, coolest in coastal areas.

Friday Forecast Update

3:19PM

Pardon the delay in updating today. Several issues prevented me from getting here when I planned to. Hope everybody is having a great day!

The front that moved into the region is sitting across southern New England with warm/muggy air over far southern areas and mild but still humid air just to the north. This will fuel a few showers and thunderstorms through evening, with most thunder activity to the south (RI and southeastern MA), with mostly just showers to the north where the air is more stable. This setup will be similar into Saturday though the front will sag more to the south with time, and also into Sunday when the front should be just offshore and a wave of low pressure ripples along it. Although the weekend will not be a wash-out, it looks unsettled.

Early next week, a break comes for the final 2 days of July. As August begins the middle of next week, it looks like we enter a pattern of humidity, showers, and thunderstorms.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

REMAINDER OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with most sun south of the Mass Pike (mainly RI & southeastern MA). Scattered showers and thunderstorms, greatest chance of storms with a few heavy downpours in RI and southeastern MA. Temperatures ranging from the upper 60s in coastal areas north of Boston to the middle 80s RI and southeastern MA. Wind variable from light NE in areas to the north of Boston to SW up to 15 MPH in areas to the south.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of showers. Lows 60-65. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly in the afternoon. Highs in the 70s except some lower 80s interior RI.  Wind E 5-15 MPH, except S in some far southern areas.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-65. Wind light E-NE.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs in the 70s. Wind light E-NE.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 81.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 63. High 82.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.

Severe Weather Potential Thursday / Unsettled Into Weekend

10:20PM

A strong disturbance will move into the region Thursday and Thursday night. First, its warm front will slide into New England from the southwest, with a thunderstorm potential ahead of it. This first threat will favor areas along and north of the Mass Turnpike in northern MA and southern NH, but with some limited instability, activity may weaken as it moves eastward. The timing for this threat is between dawn and the end of the morning. Right now, this threat appears to be the weakest of the several upcoming.

The second round comes in the form of clusters of storms that are expected to form near and south of the warm front as it lifts to the north across the region. The most likely areas for these storms are near and south of the Mass Pike, including Rhode Island. Damaging winds, large hail, flash flooding, and even isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out with these storms, though the tornado potential is highest in areas to the west (western MA, western CT, and eastern NY). This round of potential severe weather can occur any time from early afternoon to early evening.

The third round of threatening weather is expected to occur during a 6-hour window from 9PM Thursday to 3AM Friday across all of the region, with the highest potential in central and southern portions of eastern MA through RI. The main threat with numerous storms moving east and northeast across the forecast area will be damaging winds, with a secondary threat being flash flooding if storms train (develop over the same areas for an extended period of time).

I didn’t mention lightning in any of these threats, but frankly that’s because all thunderstorms produce lightning and all cloud-to-ground lightning is dangerous. Some of these storms, especially in rounds 2 and 3, can produce frequent lightning.

What happens beyond this?

We stay unsettled Friday into the weekend as the frontal boundary remains in the area. The severe weather potential is less on Friday but cannot be completely ruled out, especially from southern MA through RI. Otherwise, look for fairly numerous showers and storms over the region Friday. Saturday and Sunday, the current expectations are that things will shift southward with time, but the boundary will still be close enough to provide the threat of showers and a few thunderstorms.

Early next week looks nicer, but that may not last too long…

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

OVERNIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 60-65. Wind light variable to S.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the Mass Pike in the morning. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon, with highest potential for severe storms along and south of the Mass Pike. Becoming very humid. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s, warmest southwest of Boston. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH. Strong, gusty winds near some thunderstorms.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely, some storms possibly severe. Lows around 70. Very humid. Wind SW 5-15 MPH. Strong winds possible near storms.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms most numerous in the morning, more scattered in the afternoon. Humid. Highs in the 70s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 62. High 76.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 62. High 77.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 81.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 63. High 83.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 80.

Intermission Day

1:17AM

A series of troughs and a cold front set off scattered thunderstorms Tuesday, providing quite a show for some people in southern NH, eastern MA, and even parts of  RI. As of midnight, the final showers are exiting via far southeastern New England, and a dry air mass is settling in, but it’s only going to be here for a day, Wednesday – the pick of the week. Although plenty of bright sun and dry air will dominate, there will be a gusty breeze to go along with it.

But wait! Just when you are about to say “I could take days like this all summer…” the weather will throw a curve ball and we’ll see a rapid turn to unsettled weather Thursday that will then last into if not through the coming weekend. Thursday itself may become a volatile weather day, as there is potential for a couple rounds of strong thunderstorms. This may repeat in some areas on Friday and additional showery weather may linger through the weekend. The details of the unsettled stretch to end the week are unknown but will be worked out.

In the mean time…………….. forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gust.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds increasing west to east overnight. Lows 61-66. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-80. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 78.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 62. High 75.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 62. High 74.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 83.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 84.

Short-Lived Humidity Breaks Tuesday

4:51PM

This one doesn’t last long, folks, and it never really gets that hot either. We’ve felt the humidity come back and temperatures have climbed into the 80s in many areas today, and this will again be the story for tomorrow, but the humidity will make a quick exit tomorrow afternoon and evening after a cold front passes. The thunderstorm threat this go-around is minimal for eastern MA, southeastern NH, and RI, because of the timing of advancing storms today/tonight (they fade with the setting sun and it’s also not that unstable in this area), and tomorrow the front coming through shortly after noon versus late day or evening will not allow very much time for widespread big storms to form. Though there is still the threat of a few strong storms ahead of and along the front, so it is unwise to let our guard down at this point.

The front coming through Tuesday sets the area up for a windy/warm/dry day Wednesday. This nice weather will be short lived, however, as a low pressure trough and a series of disturbances returns unsettled weather to the region during Thursday, lingering through the end of the week.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

THROUGH SUNSET: Hazy sun & a few clouds. Humid. Temperatures mainly upper 70s to lower 80s, coolest south-facing coastal areas. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT: Variably cloudy. A few showers and a very slight chance of a thunderstorm, mainly north and west of Boston. Warm and muggy. Lows upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy through midday with a few passing showers and a slight chance of a few isolated stronger thunderstorms. Mostly sunny for the rest of the day. Starting humid then drying out. Very warm. Highs 80-90, coolest Cape Cod & Islands. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Mild, drier. Lows 60-65. Wind NW 10-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Warm and dry. Highs 80-85. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. PM showers. Low 61. High 80.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Low 64. High 76.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 77.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Low 63. High 76.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 61. High 83.

The Week Ahead

10:37PM

A warm front will cross the region Monday morning with the slight chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. This will open the door to a very warm and humid air mass which will dominate the region Monday into Tuesday, though a series of troughs and a final cold front coming through later Monday through late Tuesday will cause several chances for showers and thunderstorms, but lead to a mild and dry day on Wednesday. By Thursday, a trough of low pressure will approach, and a series of weak low pressure areas will move through with an unsettled and cooler ending to the week ahead.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Clouds move in. Slight chance of a few showers and thunderstorms late. More humid. Lows 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Muggy and very warm. Highs 85-90, lower 80s Cape & Islands. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Warm/muggy. Lows 65-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Hot and still humid. Highs around 90, 80s Cape & Islands. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 61. High 82.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 60. High 80.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Low 62. High 76.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 62. High 75.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 64. High 74.