Since it is leaf-peeping season, this time The Week Ahead will venture to the virtual edge of the meteorological plank, otherwise known as day 8, which by coincidence will be the 8th day of October.
Saying goodbye to September this weekend was done with periods of showers and rain, though the sun popped out in many neighborhoods late Sunday afternoon. The last of some sun-fueled showers and thunderstorms have been trying to wander into the western parts of the forecast area as the sun sunk below the horizon for the final time in September and the just-beyond-full moon shared the eastern sky with some clouds as it started its journey across the heavens.
Now it’s time to look ahead to the first week of a month that marks a big transition from the final warmth of summer to the first hints of a coming winter, from the green leaves of summer to the multicolored splashes of Autumn splendor. The atmosphere will be doing its own shifting and shuffling during this week, with direct impact on our weather here in southern New England. As upper level low pressure responsible for the unsettled stretch lifts out of the way via northern New England and southeastern Canada, a ridge of high pressure will build off the East Coast. This means that the air will be fairly mild for much of the coming week, even though another low pressure trough will try to press eastward into the area as the middle of the week approaches. This low should have some trouble against the high pressure to the east, and weaken and remain mostly to the west, though it will send enough moisture in for a chance of showers from late Tuesday through early Thursday. What will likely knock the high pressure ridge down will be a deepening and advancing low pressure trough dropping out of Canada and into the Great Lakes and Midwest, broadening and eventually pressing into the Northeast as we reach the Columbus Day Weekend. A transition of about 4 days will begin on Friday from breezy and mild weather to much cooler weather, if timing goes as expected. This transition may be marked by some shower activity at some point, but it is difficult to time when that will happen this far in advance. The following forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI will give my best shot at how things will unfold for the first 8 days of the tenth month of 2012…
EVENING (THROUGH 9PM): Partly cloudy. A dying shower or thunderstorm may reach the 495 belt north of the Mass Pike. Temperatures 55-60. Wind southwest up to 10 MPH.
OVERNIGHT (9PM ON): Mostly clear. Patchy fog forming over inland valley locations. Lows upper 40s to middle 50s, coolest inland valley areas and mildest in urban centers. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs upper 60s south-facing coastal areas, 70-75 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting up to 30 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers late day. Highs 70-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 55. High 70.
THURSDAY: Decreasing clouds. Chance of showers early day. Low 56. High 74.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 52. High 72.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 54. High 74.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 54. High 66.
MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 39. High 57.