7:27AM

A cold front will slice through the region today with showers, even a few thunderstorms, and cooling air. This will set the stage for a chilly and dry remainder of the week. Sunshine will dominate Wednesday, sun & clouds will share parts of Thursday & Friday as a weak disturbance drifts through the region, and sunshine is expected to again dominate at least the start of the weekend. More cloudiness may arrive later in the weekend as we watch an area of low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north setting up a battle zone.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, with a few downpours. Temperatures cooling through the 50s and into the 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

TONIGHT: Slow clearing west to east. Lows 32-37. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 42-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Low 28. High 46.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Low 28. High 46.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 50.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 49.

10:52PM

Heading into the new week, it looks much the same as described on the previous post. Indian Summer weather will be the theme of Monday (which is a holiday for some people). Tuesday will be a day of transition as a cold front slides west to east through the region. Showery weather should be occurring mainly during the first half of the day with the front. This front may be a bit slow to clear the coast with clouds lingering there early Wednesday, otherwise the middle and end of the week will feature dry weather with a seasonable chill as high pressure is in general control.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

MONDAY: Areas of low clouds and patchy fog into mid morning, a sunny interval late morning into mid afternoon, then clouds increasing by late day. Highs 65-70 except 60-65 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers after midnight. Lows 50-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Showers in the morning. Highs 55-60 early then cooling toward 50. Wind S 5-15 MPH in the morning shifting to NW from midday on.

WEDNESDAY: Early clouds Cape Cod & Islands otherwise sunny. Low 33. High 48.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Low 29. High 46.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Low 29. High 45.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 47.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 29. High 49.

11:24AM

The next 7 days will feature 3 days of warming, a day of transition, and 3 days of chill. Today through Monday (long Veterans Day weekend for some) will feature fair weather and a warming trend, with sun much of today, clouds tonight as a warm front pushes through, a return to some sun Sunday, and even more sun with Indian Summer warmth for Monday. Tuesday will be the divide as a front moves across the region bringing a cloudy sky and a period of rain or showers at some point (working on the exact timing). Wednesday through Friday will be governed by high pressure and will be bright days with a typical November chill.

Forecast details for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Sunshine & a few clouds (more clouds showing up in the western sky late day). Highs 50-55. Wind up to 10 MPH mainly NW to N.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 40-45. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Clouds & sun mixed with clouds dominating the morning, more sun afternoon. Highs 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-55 except a few upper 40s in deep valleys/bogs. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (VETERANS DAY OBSERVED): Sunny. Highs 70-75 except 64-69 South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain or showers. Temperature cooling through the 50s.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 31. High 44.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 24. High 45.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 26. High 48.

12:45AM

The storm responsible for wind, rain, and snow the past couple of days is on its way out. Other than a leftover brisk breeze today, tranquil weather will be the rule through the start of the next week. Only an interruption of cloudiness will occur at some point over the weekend as warmer air pushes into the region. The warmest day of the stretch will be Monday. Tuesday, clouds and a shower threat exist as a cold front moves in, and the middle of next week looks fair and chilly.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 45-50. Wind W to variable around 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 40-45. Wind variable 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-63. Wind S-SW 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 70.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. PM showers. Low 45. High 55.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 36. High 49.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 47.

10:56PM

Nothing like coming out of the gate on the first “winter storm” of the season and stumbling. Not to be too harsh on myself, this was not an easy one to spot ahead of time. Even knowing it could snow in some places, the areas I’d have expected more got less, and some of the areas I expected less are getting the most. Other people are saying “snow? what snow?” because they haven’t seen any, just rain. Some areas that have been cold enough to snow throughout this have also seen very little, due to dry air holding strong. Heavier snow has largely been the result of meso-scale banding, or strips of heavier snow which can sit over one area for a while. As of late evening, some of the heaviest amounts of 4 or more inches have occurred southwest of Boston. The jackpot in New England has been in portions of western and southwestern CT, where 5 to 10 inches of snow have occurred thanks to intense banding much earlier in the day and continued banding into the evening. Some coastal areas are finally getting into snow after being stuck in a rain area due to warmer air from the ocean.

To note, the most important cause of the snow today was very dry air that was in place as the moisture from the storm started to fall into it. For a while most of the precipitation was evaporating, but as this happens, the air above is cooling and that cooling gets pulled earthward as precipitation falls. In this case, it cooled enough in many areas to support snow for much of the early to middle portion of this storm event. That, combined with banding, has resulted in a highly variable snowfall distribution.

Now that I have missed most of my forecast snow amounts, it’s time to reset, finish off the rest of this storm with updated info, then look ahead to the coming days.

During the next 24 hours, the low pressure area responsible for the snow as well as pounding surf along the coast and some strong to damaging wind in South Coastal New England will weaken and spin its way east of New England. Unsettled weather will continue but with milder air at all levels precipitation on Thursday will be mostly in the form of light rain and drizzle. Drier air finally works in as the low departs Thursday night. Friday through Monday (observed Veterans Day) will feature fair weather with a cool start then a warming trend. A warm front may push an area of clouds through the region Saturday night into Sunday. By Tuesday of next week, high pressure building to the north of the region will push cooler Atlantic air in along with clouds. A disturbance trying to move in from the west will bring a chance of showers at some point later Tuesday into Wednesday – too far away for precise timing of course.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Bands of snow except mix/rain over southeastern MA, Cape Cod, & Islands. Additional accumulation up to 1 or 2 inches in a few areas. Precipitation tending to become lighter and mixed with rain/drizzle toward dawn. Lows 32-38. Wind NE-N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts except 25-35 MPH with higher gusts over coastal areas and some higher elevations.

THURSDAY: Overcast with periods of light rain and drizzle, but some mix may still occur inland areas early. Highs 41-46. Wind N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Starting cloudy with any light rain and snow showers ending. Gradual clearing overnight. Lows 30-35. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 50-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Low 33. High 55.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Low 44. High 64.

MONDAY – VETERANS DAY OBSERVED: Partly sunny. Low 51. High 70.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. PM showers. Low 44. High 53.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 41. High 51.

3:37PM

Yes it’s upon many in southern New England rather quickly. Very dry air has allowed the early precipitation to drag cold air down and start many areas off as snow. This will add a little bit to the overall totals but warm ground and also warming at mid levels will keep this from being a significant snowfall. The rest of the storm should behave as previously advertised, and then get out of here by early Friday, with nice weather for the Veterans Day Weekend (the holiday being observed on Monday).

Full discussion later on another update. For now, updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THROUGH EVENING… Rain Cape Cod & Islands, rain and snow RI and southeastern MA, snow interior MA and southern NH. Temperatures ranging from the middle 30s to middle 40s NW to SE across the area. Wind NE-N 15-25 MPH except 25-45 MPH with higher gusts in coastal areas especially Cape Cod & Islands.

OVERNIGHT: Rain coastal areas, mix/rain inland but some snow hanging on northwestern fringes of the forecast area before mixing. Snow accumulation through the event ranging from a slushy coating to around 1 inch on grassy surfaces except 1 to 3 inches in higher elevations. Main roads will remain just wet. Steady temperatures. Wind NE-N 15-35 MPH with higher gusts especially in coastal areas.

THURSDAY: Overcast with periods of rain and drizzle. Highs in the 40s. Wind N 15-25 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain or snow showers ending by late at night. Lows in the 30s. Wind N 15-25 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs around 50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 55.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 40. High 62.

MONDAY – VETERANS DAY OBSERVED: Partly sunny. Low 48. High 66.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Low 40. High 52.

7:28AM

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Rain develops SE to NW midday-afternoon but mix/snow in the 95/495 belt. Highs reach 50 Cape Cod but struggle to upper 30s interior southern NH, 40s by late day most areas. Wind NE increasing to 15-35 MPH but gusts 40-55 MPH by late day especially in coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow/mix to rain inland, rain elsewhere, may be heavy for a time. Snow accumulation slushy coating to 1 inch 95/495, 1-3 inches in some of the highest elevations, mainly on grassy areas. Overnight rain tapers to drizzle and periods of lighter rain. Temperatures steady. Wind NE-N 15-35 MPH with strong gusts continuing especially in coastal locations.

THURSDAY: Overcast with periods of rain and drizzle. Highs 45-50. Wind NE-N 15-25 MPH, some higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Low 38. High 48.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 52.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 40. High 60.

MONDAY – VETERANS DAY OBSERVED: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 70.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers arrive. Low 51. High 60.

8:44PM

The coming 7 days will showcase the many sides of New England’s weather. We’ll see cold and tranquil, wind & rain, maybe some snow, blustery unsettled, drying and moderating, and probably even Indian Summer before it’s all done.

The break-down:

Tonight… High pressure builds in, clouds vanish, winds die off, and the temperature drops to the coldest levels of the Autumn so far.

Tuesday… High pressure overhead brings tranquil, sunny, but chilly weather. It’s Election Day and despite the chill in the air it will be perfect for getting out to your local polling place so don’t come up with any excuses. 🙂

Wednesday… As we are enjoying our nice day Tuesday, a strong shortwave (bundle of energy) dropping through the southeastern US will join forces with a low pressure area off the Southeast Coast and intensify a coastal storm which will then deepen rapidly and move northward. This will throw a shield of precipitation into southern New England during the afternoon and evening (though some guidance has faster timing and a late morning arrival). With cold air in place, some snow may be leading the precipitation off, especially over the interior and higher elevations. The best chance of accumulating snow will be outside of the forecast area in the mountains, but I cannot rule out some accumulation of wet snow in the hills of north central MA and southwestern NH at some point Wednesday afternoon or night. The bigger story with this storm will be the wind, which will reach gale force in gusts especially in coastal areas. Wind damage is possible, as well as some scattered power outages. Coastal flooding should be minimal because of astronomically low tides, but even minor flooding can be a problem especially along the South Coast where moderate to significant flooding occurred with Sandy.

Thursday… The low pressure area should track to somewhere near Cape Cod and may do a small loop before heading east then north again in the waters just east of New England. Gusty winds will continue but will be shifting more northerly with time. Gusts should diminish and the threat of wind damage and coastal flooding will lessen. It should still be quite wet, even though the heaviest of the precipitation will likely have occurred overnight. There should be sufficient warming during the height of the storm so that anything falling on Thursday will be in the liquid form over the entire forecast area.

Friday… The storm departs, but how quickly this happens will determine the magnitude of clearing of the sky. Optimistic guidance shows clearing in the morning. A more reliable model shows clouds hanging on until late in the day when it should finally clear. Going to split the difference for now and adjust accordingly.

Weekend (Saturday / Sunday / Monday which is observed Veterans Day)… Fair weather, a warming trend, with some downright warm Indian Summer weather possible by Monday as high pressure ridging builds rapidly along the US East Coast.

The Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH:

TONIGHT: Any clouds vanish. Clear and cold. Lows ranging from 19 in deep valleys to near 30 in Downtown Boston, 20s everywhere else. Wind NW-N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY – ELECTION DAY: Mostly sunny. A chilly day. Highs in the 40s. Light wind.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to start then high clouds advancing S to N toward dawn. Lows ranging from the middle 20s inland valleys to middle 30s coast. Wind light NE.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds thicken S to N early. Rain develops SE to NW midday-afternoon but may start as snow in the 495 belt where some minor slushy accumulation is possible. Measurable snow may take place in the hills of north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs reach the lower 50s Cape Cod but struggle to the lower 40s in southern NH, middle to upper 40s by late day most areas. Wind NE-E increasing to 15-35 MPH but gusts 40-55 MPH by late day especially in coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Stormy with rain, possibly heavy. Any mix well N & W to rain. Overnight rain tapers to drizzle and periods of lighter rain. Temperatures hold in the 40s. Wind E-NE 15-35 MPH with strong gusts continuing especially in coastal locations.

THURSDAY: Overcast with periods of rain and drizzle. Highs 45-50. Wind NE-N 15-25 MPH, some higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Low 38. High 48.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 52.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 40. High 60.

MONDAY – VETERANS DAY OBSERVED: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 70.

12:12AM

There are no significant changes to the discussion issued early Sunday morning. What I am doing in this update is adding some cloudiness to the Monday forecast. Still enough of a low pressure trough over us through the day to allow some additional cloudiness – more than I had been expecting. Also may be a band of clouds with a reinforcing cold front which will be passing through late in the day. So, slightly less bright for Monday, still a bright and chilly Election Day, and a midweek storm to deal with.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 44-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s except some upper 10s inland valley areas. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY – ELECTION DAY: Sunny. Highs 43-48. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding over south to north followed by rain developing south to north. Potential for some mix/snow higher elevations well NW of Boston. Low 29. High 45.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain/wind, tapering off late. Low 38. High 50 (possibly warmer SE).

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Low 33. High 48.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 34. High 52.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 36. High 57.

7:17AM

Hi all! A quick personal note: Still in hospital but I have laptop with me therefore after a pretty decent night of rest and some nice medication to slow my heart rate (staying for a while today for a few tests then we’ll see what happens…) I am able to do a quick update for the WHW forecast area of eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

Discussion…

No big changes in the overall idea from the last entry. We’re chilly and dry through Tuesday as a low pressure trough departs to the east and high pressure builds in, with a northwest to northerly flow. Election Day (Tuesday) looks bright and chilly. No excuses not to get out and vote! Strong signals continue for the East Coast storm for midweek. Slowing the timing slightly so that for most of our area the heaviest precipitation and strongest wind take place Wednesday night into Thursday. The main concern about this storm threat is coastal flooding, and there will be some, but it will likely be only minor to locally moderate due to an astronomically much lower tide that what occurred during Sandy. Wind, though significant, will not be nearly as strong. However, some weakened trees and branches that did not come down during Sandy may do so in the midweek storm, so there will be a risk of additional power outages. Precipitation should be mainly rain across the forecast area due to a strengthening east wind ahead of the storm that should warm the atmosphere enough. Also, upper levels will be warming during the storm. Snow should be limited to the mountains. It is not out of the question that higher elevations of southwestern NH and central MA pick up accumulating snow from part of the storm. Friday should be a dry, windy, chilly day behind the storm. An early peek at next weekend indicates fair weather and moderating temperatures.

Forecast…

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs around 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s except around 30 urban centers. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 44-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 20s except some upper 10s inland valley areas. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY – ELECTION DAY: Sunny. Highs 43-48. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding over south to north followed by rain developing south to north. Potential for some mix/snow higher elevations well NW of Boston. Low 29. High 45.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain/wind, tapering off late. Low 38. High 50 (possibly warmer SE).

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 48.

WEEKEND: Fair weather. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.

10:22PM

A low pressure trough hangs on nearby, and a northwesterly flow will deliver chilly weather for the next few days. Clouds will dominate through Saturday with some instability and colder air aloft, but Sunday and the start of next week will feature more sun.

I continue to watch the potential for an East Coast storm for the middle of next week. But at 5 days away it’s still too early to talk about details, other than there is potential for a significant rain and wind event in the forecast area.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs around 50. Wind NW 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 25. High 46.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 28. High 48.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. PM rain/wind. Low 35. High 49.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain/PM rain showers. Low 45. High 53.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 50.

3:50PM

November is here, and as if on cue, the weather is turning a bit blustery and cooler. This general pattern will be with us into the start of next week as the trough associated with what was once Sandy, combined with another trough from the west, hangs over eastern Canada, getting reinforced and delivering cool air to New England. This is also a largely dry pattern.

As we reach the middle of next week, things may get a little more active again as we’ll be watching a potential storm on the East Coast. It is far, far too early to even think about details at this point. Just watching the potential for the next couple days, and then will start to try to paint a picture.

Meanwhile, the updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH goes this way…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 42-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 53-58. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 31. High 49.

TUESDAY – ELECTION DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 46.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 35. High 45.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Low 30. High 44.