5:14PM

The first week of April 2013 will be a week of changing weather. It starts with low pressure lifting away to the northeast for April Fool’s Day, but it’s no joke that it will be a mild day. However it does carry a shower and thunderstorm threat as a secondary cold front approaches (the first having gone through pre-dawn ending a good slug of rain tonight). This front, when it passes, will deliver a late-season shot of cold air for Tuesday & Wednesday, followed by milder weather Thursday as high pressure that first builds in from Canada sinks to the south and a westerly wind develops. But another cold front will deliver some chilly air for Friday and a wave of low pressure passing south of New England Friday night and early Saturday will bring the chance of precipitation (rain and snow, with the snow depending on timing and intensity of precipitation). Things move along though, and the majority of next weekend should turn out ok with a chilly start and warmer finish.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 40-45. Wind S 10-20 MPH gusting 20-30 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of passing showers and possibly a thunderstorm, especially in the afternoon. Highs 50-55 south-facing shores, 56-61 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting 20-30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-30 except 30-35 urban centers and immediate coast. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 40-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 45.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 32. High 55.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/snow at night. Low 35. High 48.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain/snow showers early. Low 33. High 46.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 38. High 64.

8:27PM

Even with an overall cooler than normal pattern, we’re now in the time of year where you can feel it in the air. You can tell we’re climbing fast, climate-wise, out of the winter pit. The next few days will hold even more of this, as it is somewhat milder, despite the passage of a storm system Sunday night. There is a significant shot of chilly air waiting in the wings next week, but for now with a slightly faster and flatter jet stream flow, I’m looking at things being on the dry side, absent of late-season snow threats, for most of next week.

For those celebrating Easter this Sunday, expect a mostly clear and chilly start for sunrise services, sun giving way to clouds during the course of the day but turning milder (well into the 50s except where a southerly wind comes off the water where it will be cooler), and rain holding off until the very end of the day or at night, arriving from west to east.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 50-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-30 inland, 30-35 coast. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Rain arrives south and west of Boston by late day. Highs 54-59 except 48-53 south-facing coastal areas. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouds depart early and return late, with plenty of sun in between. Showers/thunderstorms possible evening and early at night west fading to showers east. Low 48. High 60.

TUESDAY: Slow clearing. Low 33. High 48.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 46.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 49.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 46.

8:53PM

The big spinny low is losing its grip but will hold on enough through Saturday to still produce some clouds and at least a slight shower threat.

Easter Sunday will start glorious, and end wet as a storm system approaches from the west. As this system clears the region by Monday, some mild air will be a nice Spring treat, but by the middle of next week another chilly pattern will be established.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated afternoon rain showers. Highs around 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated midday rain showers. Highs around 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain by late day. Low 32. High 55.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 44. High 60.

TUESDAY: Slow clearing. Low 30. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 43.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 44.

5:32PM

The next 7 days will be a good example of the volatile nature of Spring time in New England. Not in an extreme way, but rather a tutorial courtesy of mother nature.

We start out with a continuation of a broad low pressure circulation east of New England, sending lobes of energy/moisture southwestward to southward across the region. One such lobe is moving down from northern New England now and ahead of it some instability allowed a lot of pop up cumulus clouds during Wednesday afternoon, some producing light rain showers. As this energy from the north northeast comes across tonight into Thursday, it will set off rain and snow showers, with some minor snow accumulation possible on unpaved surfaces in the pre-dawn hours of Thursday. By late Thursday, this area will be moving away, but another one will come down on Friday afternoon and evening with another threat of some showers (mostly rain this time as some milder maritime air will be involved). Lingering instability will allow for some more pop up clouds and maybe a sprinkle on Saturday, but overall it looks like the balance of the weekend including Easter Sunday (for those celebrating) will be on the nice side. However, but the afternoon of Sunday, clouds will be racing in ahead of the next disturbance as things will be moving again in the atmosphere with the big low to the east out of the way. Rain associated with this may arrive by Sunday evening from the west and be gone by Monday morning (still working on exact timing). If this faster timing is true, Monday, which is the first day of April, may turn out to be a very mild day. That won’t last, however, as a secondary modified arctic cold front will come through late in the day or at night, setting off rain showers and even the chance of the first thunderstorm of the season. Behind that comes a blast of very late season arctic air. No it doesn’t mean we’ll see mid winter temperatures. What it means is that temperatures will be significantly below normal Tuesday into the middle of next week. Will there be a snow threat? Maybe. Too early to know. But can’t rule it out.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

THROUGH SUNSET: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers mainly south and west of Boston ending. Temperatures in the 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers develop north to south and change to snow showers, with minor accumulations possible on unpaved surfaces in the pre-dawn hours.  Lows 30-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers in the morning possibly ending as rain showers. Highs 42-47. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows upper 20s to middle 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Chance of rain showers late day and evening. Highs 44-49. Wind NW 10-15 MPH shifting to N.

SATURDAY: Sun & clouds. Isolated rain showers. Low 33. High 48.

SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Clouding up afternoon. Late-day or night rain west to east. Low 32. High 53.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms late day or evening. Low 44. High 61.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of PM mix/snow. Low 34. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 28. High 42.

10:44PM

A storm still spins offshore. A parcel of drier air came in Tuesday, but another spoke of moisture will rotate southward later Wednesday into Thursday with more clouds and a risk of rain/snow showers. The storm finally drifts away and high pressure nudges eastward for the end of the week. This won’t last though. Already there are signs of a new trough and blast of chilly air from Canada next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows middle 20s inland valleys to lower 30s coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun dominates the morning. Clouds arrive in the afternoon north to south. Highs around 50. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Lows in the 30s. Wind N 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Clouds dominate the morning. Increasing sun north to south afternoon. Highs upper 40s. Wind N 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 32. High 47.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 33. High 48.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 38. High 53.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 56.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 26. High 38.

2:32AM

The air will feel milder at times this week even though temperatures will still be running generally below normal. Some episodes of late March sunshine will make it feel less cool. There will also be one more throwback area of clouds and a few rain/snow showers later Wednesday through Thursday from a large storm circulation offshore to the east. This finally drifts away to the east and high pressure ridging nudges eastward later in the week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Variably cloudy. Few snow showers especially southeastern MA. Lows 30-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows around 30. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/snow showers. Low 30. High 44.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 48.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 49.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 52.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 38. High 49.

8:43PM

This week, which is Passover and Holy Week for those celebrating either, will see a continuation of the cool pattern that has characterized much of the month of March. For southern New England, it starts out with a sideswiping by the northern edge of a large storm exiting the US East Coast. This storm brought severe weather to parts of the Southeast and ice/snow to parts of the Mid Atlantic, but will only graze far southern New England with a little bit of mix/snow later Monday before heading out to sea. The balance of the week will be dominated by low pressure to the east and high pressure to the west with just a few disturbances rotating through with periods of clouds and minimal precipitation threats.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 30-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Late day light mix South Coast of MA & RI. Highs 40-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Light mix to snow pushing northward to around the Mass Pike and southward with just a few flakes of snow possible to the north of there. Little snow accumulation most areas but 1-2 inches possible over southern RI through Cape Cod MA. Lows around 30. Wind NE 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Sun & passing clouds. Highs 42-47. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-35. Wind NW 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of passing rain or snow showers. Low 31. High 42.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 32. High 46.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 47.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 34. High 48.

7:33PM

Chilly & dry is the overall pattern. The late March sun will make the air feel milder at times (Sunday and mid to late next week) But there is one storm threat, Monday. Right now I still think it will slide JUST underneath southern New England on its way to sea, but may very well be close enough to spread some light precipitation into the southern half of the forecast area, some of which would be snow. Keeping an eye on this for late changes.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early. Clear overnight. Lows middle 20s to near 30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty, dropping off later.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs middle to upper 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows around 30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain/snow south of the Mass Pike and especially near the South Coast. Highs around 40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially coastal areas.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 44.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 29. High 45.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 28. High 46.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 47.

11:39PM

What is a lock is the cold pattern. That’s not going anywhere, right into April.

What is becoming more certain is a drier than normal pattern becoming established, but this does not leave us in the clear of snow threats either. As many of you know, anywhere from 1 to 6 inches of snow fell over southeastern MA Thursday afternoon & evening, courtesy of an inverted trough. The next threat in the pipeline is a large storm moving eastward off the Mid Atlantic Coast about Monday. Most signs point to it being just too far south for significant impact on southern New England but it needs to be watched…

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Lingering snow showers southeastern MA and Cape Cod, ending by dawn. Breaking clouds. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 30. High 40.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 27. High 42.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 43.

1:56AM

The chilly March pattern will continue for the foreseeable future. High pressure will often be in a position ridged from central Canada southward through the eastern US, supply plenty of cold air from the snow-covered regions in Canada and the Arctic. In addition, a storm track south of the region will continue to bring some snow threats, though it remains to be seen how many will materialize during the coming week or so. The first of these develops today and lingers through early Friday in the form of an inverted trough reaching back from a developing ocean storm. It looks like most of the snow will fall over far southeastern Massachusetts with mostly insignificant amounts up as far north as Boston. The next threat will be from a large storm moving east northeastward to the south of New England late Sunday through Monday. It still looks like this system will be too far south to have direct impact, but needs to be watched.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Clouds increase. Snow showers develop eastern MA during the afternoon. Highs middle 30s to around 40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of snow showers, favoring coastal areas especially southeastern MA. Snow accumulation up to a coating along the I-95 belt to 1-3 inches over Cape Cod – localized 4 inch amounts are possible. Lows 25-30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy start southeastern areas otherwise partly to mostly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 23. High 42.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 44.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 33. High 41.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 28. High 42.