With no major changes to the forecast, this is basically a re-issue of the last blog with tweaks for timing and a few added details, and of course updated for the time period.
Here is my best guess at the weather pattern and resultant day-by-day weather through the first week of July.
The battle between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean and low pressure trough centered near the Great Lakes will continue through the first 2 days of July, with a retrograding ridge eventually being the victor. The result will be mild to warm air, high humidity, and episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms through early Tuesday, though many areas will see lengthy stretches with no rain. The wettest times are most likely to be the early hours of Monday, late Monday night, and very early Tuesday.
High pressure will continue to drift westward over the western Atlantic and US East Coast through much of next week, only weakening a little as disturbances try to ride over the top of it from the west by the first weekend of July. The overall pattern for this area will become hotter and continued humid. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be isolated to scattered at best.
Updated forecast for southeastern New England (RI, eastern MA, southern NH)…
TODAY: Variably cloudy – sun more dominant morning and first part of afternoon, clouds more dominant later. Only isolated showers and a slight risk of a heavier thunderstorm. Humid. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s, coolest South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind S 5-15 MPH, up to 20 MPH some coastal areas.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms increasing from the west and south. Some downpours. Humid. Lows in the middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms in the morning, less numerous in the afternoon, may increase again at night. Highs 75-80, cooler some south-facing coastal areas. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lingering showers/storms possible early in the day. Isolated storms may develop again later in the day. Low 67. High 83.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated late-day thunderstorms. Low 68. High 84.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated late-day thunderstorms. Low 68. High 86.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated late-day thunderstorms. Low 69. High 88.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 70. High 90.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 70. High 88.