July 4th Week Extended Outlook (Update)

2:08AM

With no major changes to the forecast, this is basically a re-issue of the last blog with tweaks for timing and a few added details, and of course updated for the time period.

Here is my best guess at the weather pattern and resultant day-by-day weather through the first week of July.

The battle between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean and low pressure trough centered near the Great Lakes will continue through the first 2 days of July, with a retrograding ridge eventually being the victor. The result will be mild to warm air, high humidity, and episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms through early Tuesday, though many areas will see lengthy stretches with no rain. The wettest times are most likely to be the early hours of Monday, late Monday night, and very early Tuesday.

High pressure will continue to drift westward over the western  Atlantic and US East Coast through much of next week, only weakening a little as disturbances try to ride over the top of it from the west by the first weekend of July. The overall pattern for this area will become hotter and continued humid. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be isolated to scattered at best.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (RI, eastern MA, southern NH)…

TODAY: Variably cloudy – sun more dominant morning and first part of afternoon, clouds more dominant later. Only isolated showers and a slight risk of a heavier thunderstorm. Humid. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s, coolest South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind S 5-15 MPH, up to 20 MPH some coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms increasing from the west and south. Some downpours. Humid. Lows in the middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms in the morning, less numerous in the afternoon, may increase again at night. Highs 75-80, cooler some south-facing coastal areas. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lingering showers/storms possible early in the day. Isolated storms may develop again later in the day. Low 67. High 83.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated late-day thunderstorms. Low 68. High 84.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated late-day thunderstorms. Low 68. High 86.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated late-day thunderstorms. Low 69. High 88.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 70. High 90.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 70. High 88.

July 4th Week Extended Outlook

2:30AM

Here is my best guess at the weather pattern and resultant day-by-day weather through the first week of July, including the Independence Day holiday (and 2 weekends either side of it).

The battle between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean and low pressure trough centered near the Great Lakes will continue this final weekend of June and the first 2 days of July, with a retrograding ridge eventually being the victor. The result will be mild to warm air, high humidity, and episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms through Monday, with less shower activity but still a shower and storm threat lingering Tuesday. Many areas will see lengthy stretches with no rain, but any tropical showers and storms may produce drenching downpours. At this point, I expect the day with the most numerous shower activity in southeastern New England to be Monday.

High pressure will continue to drift westward over the western  Atlantic and US East Coast through much of next week, only weakening a little as disturbances try to ride over the top of it from the west by the first weekend of July. The overall pattern for this area will become hotter and continued humid. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be isolated, increasing to scattered in some areas with passing disturbances later in the period.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (RI, eastern MA, southern NH)…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning with isolated to scattered showers. Partly sunny afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s. Wind S 5-15 MPH, up to 20 MPH some coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms early. Patchy fog overnight. Muggy. Lows in the 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms redeveloping. Humid. Highs upper 70s to lower 80s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 77.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered late-day showers/thunderstorms. Low 67. High 83.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated late-day thunderstorms. Low 68. High 84.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated late-day thunderstorms. Low 68. High 86.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated late-day thunderstorms. Low 69. High 88.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low 70. High 90.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 70. High 88.

Summer Battle

9:31AM

The battle will be on between a Great Lakes trough and a western Atlantic ridge for several days. The ridge will eventually win out for much of southern New England, but enough of a battle from the trough will be given to result in a continued threat of showers and thunderstorms for several days. The thing is, there will be high variability in rain coverage. Widespread wet times will be few, scattered to isolated coverage will be much more common.

First, we have a wedge of cooler air that came southwestward last evening behind a disturbance and pseudo-back-door cold front. It has left low clouds and areas of fog in much of the region and it will take a while to burn that away today. During this time, a band of heavier clouds just to the south as indicating the position of a boundary between this cooler air and the return push of warm and humid air from the south. This boundary will be a focus for generation of some rain as we go through today and this evening, but there is some question as to exactly how much rain will generate and fall in the region. I’m banking on less than some have advertised. So today may feature more “bark” than “bite” in terms of clouds and rainfall. By later tonight, we will see a heavier band of rain and embedded thunderstorms move in from the west with a trough line swinging out from a low pressure center passing northwest of New England. The axis of this heavy rain should time through southern New England between midnight and mid morning Friday. The remainder of Friday may not feature all that much in the way of widespread rain, but we’ll still have to look for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. This boundary will be close to the coast or maybe just offshore, and along with a more established southerly flow of tropical air, showers and thunderstorms will be possible any time during the weekend, favoring Saturday over Sunday, but it’s quite possible that long rain-free periods will take place as well.

Retrogression (westward-movement) of the ridge of high pressure in the western Atlantic will take place during the first half of next week, putting the region into hotter conditions, still humid, and still with a threat of showers and storms, but more isolated with time as the axis of most likely activity shifts to the west.

Tomorrow, a special 10-day forecast looking out through the entire first week of July.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Low clouds and areas of fog through the morning. Remaining mostly cloudy midday through afternoon however breaks of sun and isolated showers both possible. Highs in the 70s, upper 60s few coastal points. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of light rain possible in the evening, favoring southern NH. Widespread showers/thunderstorms arriving west to east mainly after midnight. Lows in the 60s. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and embedded thunderstorms ending west to east in the morning. Partly sunny with isolated to scattered passing showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 80-85 except 70s some coastal areas. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of scattered showers/thunderstorms. Lows 65-70. Highs 75-85, coolest south-facing coastal areas.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Daily risk of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Lows 66-72. Highs 77-90, coolest south-facing coastal areas.

Heat Eases, Humidity Teases

8:52PM

The hot stretch that began Sunday will give way to slightly more moderate temperatures from mid week through the coming weekend as high pressure ridging, though still off the East Coast, is a bit weaker and battles a trough setting up in the Great Lakes. In addition to a little less heat for southern New England, this also means continued humidity and episodes of showers and thunderstorms, some producing tropical downpours. It will not rain all the time, but expect that many areas will get wet, sometimes quite wet, at times, during the next 5 days. Looking ahead a bit further, there are signs that retrogression (westward movement) and strengthening of high pressure off the East Coast will return our region to hotter weather with less numerous showers and storms as July begins early next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Showers and a few thunderstorms mainly in northern MA and southern NH early,  with fading showers south of Boston, otherwise variably cloudy, warm, and muggy. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy with episodes of showers and thunderstorms midday on. Any storms may produce very heavy rain and gusty wind. Warm and humid. Highs in the 80s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers and thunderstorms possible. Warm and humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SW to variable.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of showers favoring morning and midday, and a few additional showers or thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Mild and muggy. Highs in the middle 70s to lower 80s. Wind variable to S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: Daily episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Lows 65-75. Highs middle 80s to lower 90s, some cooler areas mainly South Coast.

The Week Ahead

12:12AM

Summertime and the weather matches it, and will for the entire week ahead. In the Northeast we will sit in a weakness between ridges to the West and East. This will result in some episodes of showers and thunderstorms, but much of the time it will be rain-free. The dominant weather will be warm to hot, humid conditions, the heat being more dominant through Wednesday before relaxing some later in the week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the 60s. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon and mainly over northern MA and southern NH. Highs around 90 except cooler some South Coast areas. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind light W.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms northern MA and southern NH in the afternoon. Highs around 90, cooler South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 68. High 88.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 65. High 80.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 79.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 81.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 83.

Friday PM Update

2:46PM

This update is to adjust the forecast for the remainder of Friday afternoon, as a weak surface boundary sitting along the Mass Pike may trigger a few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from mid afternoon through early evening. The remainder of the forecast is unchanged at this time.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm central and southern  MA and northern RI. Highs 73-78 South Coast, 78-83 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 60-65. Wind light SW.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible in NH and MA in the late afternoon. Highs 75-85, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms southern NH early. Lows 63-68. Wind light SW.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated showers or thunderstorms southern NH and northern MA in the afternoon. Highs 75-85 again coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 67. High 84.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 68. High 88.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 68. High 82.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 63. High 78.

Summer For The Solstice

6:41PM

Summer “officially” begins at 1:04AM Friday, and Summertime weather of the generally favorable kind will be with us for several days to come. A frontal system will be draped across northern New England and will trigger showers and thunderstorms across that region Friday through Sunday. I cannot rule out a stray one making it into southern NH or MA any of the next 3 afternoons or evenings as the air will be warmer and increasingly humid, but for the most part we’ll be seeing dry weather in the WHW forecast area. By early next week, it will be a bit hotter with continued increased humidity.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows middle 50s interior valleys to middle 60s urban centers. Wind S to SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm northern MA and southern NH late day. Highs 73-78 South Coast, 78-83 elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 60-65. Wind light SW.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible in NH and MA in the late afternoon. Highs 75-85, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms southern NH early. Lows 63-68. Wind light SW.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated showers or thunderstorms southern NH and northern MA in the afternoon. Highs 75-85 again coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 67. High 84.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 68. High 88.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 68. High 82.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 63. High 78.

Drier Future

8:22PM

One more low pressure wave riding along a front will continue the chance of wet weather through the night. It won’t rain all places at all times, but some significantly heavy rain will be around the South Coast including the Islands off Cape Cod at first. Eventually all of this will pull out to sea as low pressure wraps up and moves away. A northeasterly flow has developed in much of the region, dragging cooler air in along with the damp weather. This northeast flow will continue into Wednesday, but drier air will return sunshine to the region. This drier spell will continue through late week, but the air will be warming with time. Humidity will eventually come into play as we reach the weekend, at which time isolated showers or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. However, we won’t see a return to the soaking wet pattern we have been in recently.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Cloudy with areas of fog. Rain, some heavy, near the South Coast and Islands, with isolated to scattered showers elsewhere. Slight risk of thunderstorms. Lows 55-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds linger very early otherwise turning mostly sunny. Highs ranging from the middle 60s over the Islands to middle 70s interior MA and southern NH. Wind NE 10-15 MPH shifting to N.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows ranging from the upper 40s inland valleys to middle 50s coastal areas. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs from near 70 South Coast to near 80 inland locations. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 81.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 82.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms. Low 66. High 83.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. AM showers. Low 64. High 84.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 88.

The Week Ahead

11:08PM

A low pressure trough and associated disturbances will move across the northeastern USA bringing a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms to southern New England through Tuesday. This will not be a repeat of the washout rains of last week, however.

High pressure will dominate mid to late week and into the start of the weekend, delivering a  pleasant air mass at first, which will then turn warmer and more humid with time as high pressure sinks to the south toward the end of the week. An approaching front by the end of the weekend may trigger more showers and thunderstorms.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, RI, and eastern MA)…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind W around 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s, 70s some coastal areas. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers early. Patchy fog in valleys late. Lows 60-65, few upper 50s interior valleys. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s, cooler some coastal areas. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 56. High 76.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 56. High 79.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 60. High 82.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 84.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. PM thunderstorms. Low 67. High 83.

Better For A Bit

7:47PM

We’ve gotten rid of another wet storm, but got lucky in that flooding has been limited and not severe, the rainfall deficit is essentially gone, and the pollen count was knocked way down and kept there.

The weather will be better for the first half of the weekend as high pressure controls, but the rapid movement of weather systems means that clouds will advance by Sunday and showers are a possibility by late in the day. This will be due to a warm front and associated disturbance moving through the Great Lakes. This will keep lots of clouds around probably through early next week, probably enhanced later Tuesday in the form of heavier clouds and a chance of rain as a low pressure wave comes along the front wavering in the area. Perhaps we will break out of the unsettled stretch during the second half of next week, but it seems to want to happen very slowly so we shall see.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy then clearing. Lows in the 50s. Wind NW around 10 MPH, diminishing.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 75-80. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-60, some cooler spots interior valleys.  Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the 70s. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 60. High 77.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain late. Low 60. High 74.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers early. Low 62. High 76.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 78.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 80.