Bye Bye July

8:38PM

July, we  bid you farewell. A month hotter than average and a little wetter than average in most of the region. As August arrives, we’ll watch a cold front sweep across the region Thursday night and Friday morning, bringing some showers and thunderstorms to the region. This will set up a decent first weekend of the month, though we cannot rule out a shower or storm sometime on Sunday. Looking into next week, though we’ll be in a mean trough position, the weather will be largely dry with the air seasonable to cooler than normal.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 56-63. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms developing. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms ending. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 83.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. PM scattered showers. Low 64. High 78.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 77.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 55. High 74.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 60. High 75.

First More, Second Less

12:29AM

An area of high pressure holds on to provide another spectacular day for the final day of July, though an upper level trough departing to the northeast will still trigger some developing diurnal clouds today.

A cold front approaches Thursday but slowly enough that the day itself should be fine with clouds, showers, and thunderstorms holding off until nighttime. This front looks a little stronger than it did yesterday and therefore it may produce fairly widespread showers and storms, which will linger into Friday as the front slowly clears the coast.

The general pattern repeats again over the weekend, but a second front coming along Sunday looks much weaker and may produce only cloudiness with shower activity absent.

A comfortable air mass is expected to arrive at the beginning of next week, quite nice for August, which can often feature very warm and muggy weather.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, RI)…

TODAY: Sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 78-83, cooling near the coast. Wind NW to N 5-10 MPH turning E to SE in the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly clear overnight. Lows 59-64, cooler some inland valleys. Wind light S to SW.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-82, cooler South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds arrive west to east followed by numerous showers/thunderstorms. Lows 62-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Additional scattered showers/thunderstorms. Highs 77-82. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 83.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 64. High 84.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 79.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 57. High 77.

Two Comfy

7:41AM

After a case of the muggies, ending with a spectacular sky courtesy scattered thunderstorms in a no-haze environment late Monday, we are in for 2 comfortable days thanks to a bubble of high pressure and drier air from Canada as July concludes.

Humidity will return, though not to excess, during the first few days of August, with heat absent, but some warmth certainly in place. Interruptions to a nice weather pattern will come from a couple cold fronts passing by (Thursday night and early Friday for the first one and sometime Sunday for the other).

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind light W.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Late-day or nighttime showers/thunderstorms. Low 61. High 84.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Morning-midday scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 83.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 83.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. PM showers/t-storms. Low 64. High 84.

The Week Ahead

11:58AM (FIRST POST) / 8:40PM (EDIT TO REMOVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST) / 11:59PM (EDIT TO REMOVE SUNDAY NIGHT FORECAST)

JULY ENDS NICELY

The last 3 days of July will trend to very nice Summer weather after an unsettled beginning early Monday as a cold front moves slowly eastward off the coast. It will take a while for the humidity to be replaced by drier air, so Monday will still be a somewhat humid day, warming up as sun replaces clouds, and after some morning showers and possibly a thunderstorm around the region I still cannot rule out a pop up shower or storm in the afternoon, though chances will likely decrease as the day goes on. Upper level low pressure will be moving eastward north of the region as surface high pressure builds in on Tuesday, and this means that some clouds will have to share the sky with sunshine, but it will be a nice summer day overall. Even more sun will dominate Wednesday as high pressure dominates. Dew points will be lower with comfortable air Tuesday into Wednesday, and though the humidity may begin to creep upward later Wednesday, it will probably go unnoticed.

AUGUST’S EARLY DAYS UNSETTLED BUT NOT TOO BAD

The first 4 days of August will feature a pattern of a digging trough of low pressure into the Great Lakes and high pressure off the East Coast. A couple cold fronts will pass through the region during this time (early guess on timing suggests early Friday and early Sunday). There will be a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms during this stretch, but much of the time will end up being rain-free.

PUTTING IT TOGETHER…

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, RI, and eastern MA)…

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and possible thunderstorms in the morning, then partly to mostly sunny with only isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 78-83 coast, 83-88 inland. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Less humid. Lows 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-85, some 70s Cape Cod & Islands. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-65, some upper 50s inland valley locations. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-87, cooler Cape Cod & Islands. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mostly late in the day. Low 64. High 86.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mostly morning-midday. Low 64. High 82.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 83.

SUNDAY:  Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 84.

Split Weekend

7:46AM

High pressure brings great summer weather today before a cold front approaching from the west brings much more cloudiness and episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms Sunday, lingering into Monday before another area of high pressure returns nice summer weather to the region Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. This is how the final 5 days of July are expected to go. The first couple days of August (Thursday-Friday) look humid with a shower and thunderstorm threat.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (RI, eastern MA, and southern NH)…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s, some upper 70s South Coast. Wind W shifting to S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-85, coolest South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with showers. Clearing afternoon. Low 65. High 80.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 85.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 84.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 65. High 86.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 84.

Rain Punch

9:50PM

The cold front that barely made it through the region Wednesday is sitting just southeast of New England and on Thursday served as a lifting ramp for warm air trying to come back into the region but riding up over a wedge of cooler air near the surface. This created clouds and eventually rain that moved into the region. A wave of low pressure on the front will bring a stronger punch of rain overnight and early Friday, especially to eastern areas. Rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 1.50 inch additional are expected through Friday morning, with some areas of Cape Cod probably seeing greater than 1.50 inch. As low pressure crosses Cape Cod and then moves northward into Maine during Friday, the rain will taper off but clouds will be stubborn. But by Saturday, the clouds will have departed and the nasty weather will be replaced by a very nice summer day. This will not last, as a cold front approaching from the west will return clouds and eventually showers and thunderstorms to southeastern New England from west to east on Sunday. Showers will linger Monday as the front slowly moves offshore. A couple of nice summer days are expected Tuesday-Wednesday next week as high pressure takes control.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Overcast. Showers/rain and a slight chance of thunder increasing from south to north, heaviest Cape Cod and far eastern MA after midnight. Areas of fog. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts across east coastal MA and Cape Cod.

FRIDAY: Overcast morning with showers/rain, heaviest eastern areas, then decreasing from south to north. Mostly cloudy with a few additional showers possible in the afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind N 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH especially Cape Cod in the morning.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Patchy fog. Lows 60-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 80s except 70s South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 65-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny Cape Cod in the morning otherwise mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms developing west to east afternoon. Highs 75-85, coolest South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms especially eastern areas. Low 65. High 80.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 85.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 85.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 88.

Get It Through, Bring It Back

6:37PM

A cold front finally made it through the region Wednesday, which has been a warm and still somewhat humid day, though dew points have been lowering from west to east as drier air moves in behind the front. This drier air will continue through Thursday, though clouds will start to make a comeback as moisture rides up along the front that will not have gotten that far offshore before stopping. Low pressure developing on this front will bring another batch of wet weather Thursday night into Friday, and some of it may be quite heavy. With luck, this all lifts away and weak high pressure brings a much nicer day Saturday, though warm and still somewhat humid. Humidity will hang around for Sunday and Monday as well but another front in the region will bring shower and thunderstorm chances once again. Nice summer weather should followed this toward the middle of next week.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs lower to middle 70s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain and embedded thunderstorms developing, some heavy. Lows 62-67. Wind NE 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain and thunderstorms including torrential downpours morning. Mostly cloudy with lingering showers and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs middle to upper 70s. Wind NE 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 86.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 68. High 82.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Low 66. High 80.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 65. High 85.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 86.

Quick Forecast Update

7:17PM

No major changes to the discussion. Front gets through tonight/Wednesday but still close enough to kick off a few showers/storms Wednesday, then hangs about just offshore with a shower threat for eastern areas for at least part of Friday. Feeling optimistic about early weekend with a sliver of high pressure in control. New front approaches from the west and returns unsettled weather to the region Sunday. Early  next week some uncertainty but for now will play it optimistically.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Lingering showers and possibly a thunderstorms mainly east central MA southward. Lows in the 60s. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower to middle 60s. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers especially East Coast region. Low 64. High 78.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 85.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely. Low 68. High 82.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 64. High 81.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 85.

What’s The Weather Gonna Be? (The Week Ahead, Belated Edition)

3:34PM

Plain and simple, a week of changing weather. Not that abnormal for New England anyway. No heat waves, no super dry air, kind of everything in between, driven by these systems with these expected results.

Tonight/Tuesday: Warm front and wave of low pressure traverse the region with the return of clouds and eventually showers and possible thunderstorms. Some areas may be visited by heavy downpours.

Wednesday: Cold front slogs eastward through the region and finally gets offshore during the day, but with some heating and humidity around and lift with the front, we could see a round or 2 of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday: Sliver of high pressure brings slightly drier, mild air – a nice day.

Friday: Warm front tracks through the region but probably with only variable clouds and a slight risk of passing showers.

Weekend: Low pressure trough approaches from the west but battles a weak ridge over our area. This probably means a warmer, humid, but mostly rain-free day on Saturday, and a mild and muggy day that turns showery Sunday. Long way off – plenty of time to fine-tine.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, RI)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and a few thunderstorms, mostly after midnight. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning. More numerous showers and possible thunderstorms with some downpours possible in the afternoon. Humid. Highs in the 70s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Showers decreasing in frequency. Humid. Lows in the 60s.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms especially morning through early afternoon. Highs 75-85, coolest South Coast. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 79.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 62. High 81.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 86.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely. Low 68. High 82.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 81.

Where Do We Go From Here?

8:05PM SATURDAY (EDITED 8:00AM SUNDAY to remove TONIGHT portion)

Things worked out pretty much as expected in a general sense during Saturday. The idea of earlier timing and most widespread thunderstorm activity being southwest to south of  Boston worked out for the most part. Some areas to the north did see brief heavy downpours with some lightning and thunder. And still, some areas are “still waiting” for the storms, and will do so in vain as things are winding down as the sun sets on the day, and the heatwave. A cold front will finish sweeping across the region during the night, kicking off a few last thunderstorms over RI and southeastern MA, and this will lead us to a much more comfortable Sunday with clouds and a few showers lingering on the South Coast early, sun and clouds elsewhere, and a slight risk of a pop up shower but mainly dry weather, not as hot, and less humid than the recent stretch of weather. Enjoy it though, because we get into a low pressure trough pattern much of next week, which will be unsettled and rather humid, but without the return to heat.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds and scattered showers moving across southern RI and the South Coast of MA. Partly cloudy elsewhere. Slight risk of isolated showers mainly inland this afternoon. Highs 80-86 but cooling back to the 70s coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to NE.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind light NE.

MONDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 75-80. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Daily episodes of showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the 60s. Highs 75-85.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 65. High 85.