Unsettled & Humid Labor Day Weekend

3:20PM

For the next 5 to 7 days we will be stuck in a pattern of humid southwesterly flow between high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean and a mean low pressure trough to the west of New England. Weak frontal systems will try to push through from time to time, responsible for kicking off episodes of showers and thunderstorms, but none of these fronts will make a strong push through the region. I don’t see a big change in this pattern right into the middle of next week. The news here is mixed, since many people have outdoor plans for the long weekend, showers in that case are not so welcomed. But it has been dry in August, so any rain in that regard is welcomed. I believe that most of the shower activity will be north and west of Boston through Sunday and more likely anywhere in the region Monday. By Tuesday it should back off somewhat but the threat will still be there. It remains to be seen how much dry air works in by the middle of next week. I’m leaning away from it making a strong push into the region, at least initially.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

THROUGH SUNSET: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy with only a slight risk of an isolated shower. Temperatures ranging from near 70 immediate coast to near 80 inland locations. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SW.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly west of I-95. Highs 70s coast, 80-85 inland. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-70. Wind light SW.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms  along and west of I-95. Highs 70s coast, 80-85 inland. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-70.  Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY- LABOR DAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 63. High 83.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 84.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 80.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 78.

Fogging In

8:55PM

In the short term (tonight), a disturbance moving southward from Maine and eastern NH has fired off some showers and thunderstorms and they will be advancing southward into southeastern NH and northeastern MA. I expect them to weaken, but one or 2 cells may hold together enough to produce local downpours and some lightning/thunder. Something to watch out for. Not expecting any severe weather if storms due hold together.

Broad but weak low pressure offshore of southern New England brought cooler air to eastern coastal areas along with some fog and low clouds during Wednesday, and this will expand as low clouds push inland and fog envelops much of coastal NH, eastern MA, and southeastern RI overnight into Thursday. The marine air should prevent showers from forming though there will be some in the warmer air located far west and north of southeastern New England. By Friday, the low pressure area will be far enough offshore so that high pressure building in will develop a land breeze over most of the region and warmer air will arrive on Friday. This should last into Saturday though a few spot showers cannot be ruled out as a disturbance slides through from the northwest. The remainder of the Labor Day weekend will see a slightly increasing risk of showers and a few thunderstorms but no wash-outs are expected. Despite the warm-up on Friday, there is no significant heat in sight through the weekend.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Fog spreads and thickens across coastal NH, east coastal MA, southeastern MA, and southern and eastern RI. Otherwise mostly cloudy with isolated showers mainly in southeastern NH and northeastern MA early then dissipating. Lows 59-65. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy coastal areas, mostly cloudy inland. Foggy areas remain, especially near the coast. Highs 65-70 immediate coast, 70-75 inland. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 60-65. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 80-85 except 70s some coastal areas. Wind SE shifting to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of PM showers inland. Low 60. High 80.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 62. High 80.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 63. High 77.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 63. High 81.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 83.

Unsettled Midweek, Better Late Week

2:32AM

Broad but weak low pressure sitting just offshore during the next 2 days will add clouds and a shower threat to the weather in southern New England before pulling offshore and allowing high pressure to bring nicer late Summer weather by Friday and much of the Labor Day Weekend, though the next trough from the west is expected to bring a shower and thunderstorm threat by the holiday itself, and delay the onset of a shot of  heat from the Midwest/Plains heatwave. Still looking for some of this to eventually get to the eastern US though it may take a while.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Variably cloudy with a few episodes of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Highs around 80 except cooler coast. Lows around 60. Somewhat humid. Winds primarily E to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 58. High 79.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 55-65. Highs 75-85.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 60. High 80.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 83.

The Week Ahead (Plus)

7:42AM

8 days a week! It’s bonus time! An 8 day forecast? Say it ain’t so! Just once in a while, and this time it’s because next weekend is Labor Day Weekend. So let’s attempt to simply explain how weather systems should behave during this time and then forecast the expected resultant weather.

A strong ridge of high pressure will reside in the central USA for much of this week. A 2-part disturbance that came over the top of this ridge will fly across southern New England from northwest to southeast today bringing a couple shower threats and possibly a thunderstorm to a few areas, but much of the region will be rain-free much of the time. Another disturbance is set to arrive on Wednesday and its associated front will hang along the South Coast and be the focus for another wave of low pressure that may prolong unsettled weather into Thursday. By Friday, all of this should be on its way out and a shot of drier air will arrive, resulting in very nice weather into the holiday weekend. The deeper into the weekend we go, we will see the heat from the middle of the country starting to nose its way toward New England with the feel of Summer once again becoming prominent.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning with weakening area of showers from northwest to southeast across the region then lots of clouds but partial sun and isolated showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon. Most areas remain rain free in the afternoon with the greatest chance of showers and storms well south and southwest of Boston. Highs upper 70s to lower 80s. Wind S to SW  5-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A few showers and thunderstorms mainly far southern MA and RI. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. A slight chance of a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms mainly south and west of Boston. Highs 75-81, coolest coast. Wind NW up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 65. High 82.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 65. High 83.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 59. High 79.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 81.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 85.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 88.

Sunday Morning Update

9:31AM

High pressure remains in control today with another beautiful day capping off a great weather weekend of low humidity, mild air and some cooling sea breezes near the coast.

An unsettled period of weather is expected Monday through Thursday as we’ll be near the boundary of the refreshing air and the northeastern corner of a big central US heat wave.

Nicer weather is expected to return Friday and on into the start of the Labor Day Weekend before the heat in the Midwest starts to shift into the eastern US.

More details on all of this posted this evening in a special extra extended forecast for next week including the entirety of the Labor Day Weekend.

For now, a quick update to the forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 75-83, coolest coast. Wind variable, mainly N, 5-15 MPH, but coastal sea breezes as well.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 60s.  Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds and a passing shower possible from northwest to southeast in the morning, then variably cloudy including periods of sun during the afternoon and a slight risk of a few passing showers or thunderstorms (most areas will remain rain-free). Highs 75-83, coolest Cape Cod & Islands. Wind S to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible early, especially southern MA and RI. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming light variable.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms southeastern MA and RI. Highs 77-84. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 79.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 84.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 59. High 80.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 78.

Encore Ending

7:34AM

One more very warm to hot day today ahead of a cold front. A disturbance ahead of this front may kick off a few showers or thunderstorms mainly in southern areas this afternoon, and the cold front itself may do the same in any area tonight into Friday. Cooler and drier air flows in for Friday night into the weekend. It warms up a little early next week but being near a frontal boundary next week means that it may be more unsettled.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly after 1PM and mainly south of the Mass Pike. Highs in the 80s, except upper 70s South Coast and may touch 90 a few inland areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly morning. Highs around 80. Wind shifting to NW then N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 59. High 77.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 55. High 80.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 59. High 83.

TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 60. Highs around 80.

Summer Encore

4:25PM

Who said the heat was done weeks ago? Not I. Climatology says that you do NOT count out hot days at that point in the season. While it’s true we slipped into a cool pattern for the end of July and the first half of August, for the time being we are out of that pattern and the peak of the warm side of the new pattern will take place during the next 2 days as a high pressure ridge dominates the weather across southern New England. No not everybody will reach 90 Wednesday & Thursday, but we will see a few 90+ readings around the area. A cold front will put an end to that as it slides across the region Thursday night, bringing cooler air in for Friday and the weekend. A back-side warmup is expected for next Monday before we slip into a back-and-forth regime as we head down the home stretch of August next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southeastern NH, eastern MA, RI)…

THROUGH SUNSET: Sunshine. Temperatures ranging from 70s near the coast where winds are blowing onshore to the 80s inland. Wind varying from SE to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-68. Wind light SW.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-92, coolest Cape Cod and South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with some coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 63-70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy and hazy. Isolated thunderstorms possible after 2PM. Muggy. Highs 85-92 except upper 70s to lower 80s across the South Coast, Cape Cod & Islands. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Early showers possible Cape Cod. Low 62. High 80.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 56. High 79.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 79.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 60. High 86.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 60. High 80.

The Week Ahead

10:53PM

One’s like or dislike of the weather is a matter of personal opinion of course, but the vast majority of you will consider this coming week to be the best of the entire Summer, and possibly the best of the entirety of 2013. High pressure will dominate, with only a dry cold frontal passage Friday morning. Temperatures start out with a warming trend, reaching hot levels (by August standards) by midweek, along with some increase in humidity, then a little cooler and less humid by the end of the week. If you picked this week for vacation, YOU WIN!

Forecast for southeastern New England…

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-85, coolest Cape Cod & South Coast, mildest interior MA and southern NH. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Wind light W.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-86. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 58-68. Highs 81-91.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-70. Highs 82-92.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-66. Highs 75-85.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Lows 55-65. Highs 75-85.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Lows 53-63. Highs 75-85.

Something’s A Miss

1:24PM

What will be a miss is the unsettled weather, passing south of New England, staying offshore this weekend and only tossing some high cloudiness into the region, a little thicker at times near the South Coast, and by later in the coming week we may have to deal with a passing cold front setting off a few showers and thunderstorms, but otherwise the long stretch of mainly fair weather will continue, along with a more mid Summer feel to the air.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

THIS AFTERNOON: Partly cloudy. Highs 70s coast, lower 80s inland. Wind N shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows middle 50s inland valleys to middle 60s urban centers. Wind E to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly sunny with most clouds south of Boston, most sun to the north. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s, coolest south-facing coastal areas. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Fair weather with increasing humidity day by day. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs upper 70s to upper 80s, coolest South Coast and Cape Cod.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a few PM showers and thunderstorms. Lows 63-70. Highs 82-92.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.

Fair Weather, Friends!

7:41AM

Other than some high cloudiness at times through the weekend and a few other periods of clouds from a weak upper level disturbance early next week, high pressure will be in general control of the weather in southern New England well into next week with plenty of fair weather. The only notable trend will be an upward one in temperature and eventually humidity as well.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-85, coolest in coastal areas. Wind W up to 10 MPH, except variable to onshore in coastal areas this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-65, coolest inland valleys, mildest in urban locations. Wind light SW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: Variable high cloudiness but not preventing plenty of sunshine during the daylight hours, just filtered at times, especially southern MA and RI. Highs 75-85, coolest Cape Cod & Islands. Lows 58-65. Winds variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-68. Highs 78-88.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-70. Highs 81-91.