Trick No Treat

3:31PM

Mother Nature has decided it’s more of a trick than a treat for this Halloween Evening as an area of rain is racing into much of northern MA and southern NH, wetting areas especially north of the Mass Pike, with less activity in south central and southeastern MA and across RI. Enough activity is generating upstream to keep the chance of wet weather going, especially in northern MA and southern NH, right through the evening, then expanding into all areas during the night and through Friday morning. All the while, warm and humid air will be moving into the region on increasing southerly winds. After the low pressure area and frontal system responsible for this wet weather clears the region later Friday, we’ll have a period of drier weather, but a second cold front will cross the region Saturday night with more clouds and a rain shower risk as mild air will hang on until that front passes. By Sunday, we’ll be into a stronger northwest wind flow, transporting much cooler and drier weather.

A peak into next week shows that we’ll have a chilly start and a warming midweek with dry weather expected, as we start first with a cold airmass from Canada then build a ridge of high pressure along the East Coast, which may bring Indian Summer conditions by the middle of the week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

THROUGH EVENING: Mainly cloudy. Periods of rain especially Mass Pike northward, with a chance of showers to the south. Areas of fog. Temperatures around 60. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT: Overcast with rain showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 55-60. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms through midday then a few lingering shower possible for the remainder of the afternoon hours. Areas of fog. Highs 70-75, 60s South Coast. Wind SW 15-30 MPH gusting  35-50 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 50. Wind SW diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Low 45. High 60.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated rain/snow showers. Low 35. High 50.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 25. High 45.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 55.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 39. High 65.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 75.

Variety Pack

5:55PM

Several different kinds of weather will be observed around southeastern New England in the days ahead. High pressure cresting over the region will bring a cold night tonight, though the temperature fall will be capped by clouds increasing across the sky. These clouds may release a few sprinkles of rain or even snow in the area Wednesday morning, but have no worry. This will not hang around as it is just a quick-passing disturbance. By Wednesday night, it will have cleared again (with nice conditions for Game 6 of the World Series at Fenway Park), but that won’t last, because clouds will roll right back in on Thursday as a warm front approaches the region. The question becomes: Will it rain on trick-or-treat? For most of the region, although there is a chance of some light rain briefly passing through, it may remain largely rain-free during the early evening hours, with main shower activity holding off until very late at night, especially the further south and east you are. Warmer air will flood into the region Thursday night and Friday, but accompanied by showers, making the late-season warmth less enjoyable. That said, any rainfall is welcomed as we have been quite dry.

Looking into the weekend, the trough bringing the unsettled weather Thursday-Friday will be slow to exit, so we will see lots of clouds and a continued shower threat on Saturday, though it will remain mild. Sunday should be chilly and windy but drier as things shift to the east and a strengthening northwest wind takes over. Early  next week looks tranquil as high pressure dominates.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 20s inland valleys, 30s coast and urban areas. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Very light showers of rain or snow (mainly NW of Boston) possible in the morning through midday. Highs around 50. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Wind light variable.

**WEATHER FOR GAME 6 OF WORLD SERIES: Dry. Temperatures cooling through the 40s. Light wind.

THURSDAY: Clouding over. Highs around 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

**WEATHER FOR TRICK OR TREAT: Cloudy. Showers possible after 7PM NW of Boston. Temperature in 50s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with numerous showers morning-midday. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Low 55. High 65.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 50. High 60.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 50.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 25. High 50.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 55.

The Week Ahead (Updated)

12:10AM

A second version of the previous post with a few adjustments.

Highlights for the coming week…

-Cold front passes late Monday which will be a partly cloudy but dry day.

-High pressure builds in Tuesday bringing bright but chilly weather.

-Frontal system to the south of the area provides a slope for warmer air to ride up over during midweek, with more cloudiness and a slight rain threat.

-November opens windy, warm, and wet on Friday.

-Transition from mild and unsettled to colder/drier during the weekend.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. Wind N 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 29. High 50.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 41. High 60.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely. Low 55. High 70.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 51. High 60.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 50.

The Week Ahead

9:30AM

A cold front has moved offshore taking a band of showers with it, leaving southeastern New England with a nice Sunday as drier air flows in between low pressure in southeastern Canada and high pressure from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic States.

The week upcoming will feature some transitions due to a couple passing weather systems, the first of which will be a cold front Monday, bringing nothing more than some clouds and a reinforcing shot of chilly air which will peak over the region during Tuesday. Moderating temperatures are expected for midweek ahead of a vigorous disturbance approaching from the west. The main low center from this system is expected to pass northwest of New England late this week, as November begins, bringing a push of warmer air followed by some wet weather, then a transition to colder and drier air later next weekend. The details and timing of this are somewhat up in the air and will be fine-tuned as the week goes on.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs in the 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly clear overnight. Lows upper 20s inland valleys to upper 30s coastal and urban areas. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 50s. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW late.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows around 30. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early then diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 27. High 54.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 59.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain showers. Low 49. High 64.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 52. High 60.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 50.

October’s Home Stretch (Updated)

5:54PM

This is basically a second version of the previous blog with basically the same discussion but a different idea about the end of the forecast (the middle of next week). For my weather model savvy friends and readers you’ll be able to tell I’m leaning heavily toward the solution of the ECMWF (European) model. Here’s a quick summary of the coming 7 days (or the final 7 days of October) followed by a detailed forecast…

-Frosty Saturday morning as high pressure moves across the region then sun followed by clouds during the day as high pressure gives ground to a low pressure area which will pass north of the region Saturday night. Precipitation should be absent (passing north of the area).

-Sunday will be breezy with sun and clouds including nice football weather for the Pats game at 1PM against the Dolphins.

-Monday may have a few passing areas of clouds as a weak trough moves through, reinforcing some cool air for Monday night and Tuesday, which will be a nice day.

-Midweek changes: Looks like progression of weather systems will slow down and put high pressure off the coast and low pressure well west of New England. This could spell a continued dry pattern and a milder trend beginning during this period.

Details…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear – few high clouds. Widespread frost by dawn. Lows in the middle to upper 20s inland, lower to middle 30s urban and coastal areas. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Frosty start, sunny morning, increasingly cloudy afternoon. Highs in the 50s. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 36. High 55.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 31. High 50.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 53.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 37. High 62.

October’s Home Stretch

7:29AM

The last 7 days of October are expected to go like this:

Today will be a breezy and cool today with sun and clouds between broad low pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure over the Ohio Valley. With a piece of this high expanding over southern New England tonight, causing lighter winds, the coldest temperature readings of the Autumn so far will occur over most of the region Saturday morning. A low pressure wave passing north of New England late Saturday and Sunday will bring slightly milder air into the region but also some clouds, though precipitation should remain largely north of the area – can’t rule out a brief rain shower in the early hours of Sunday (should be just too warm to support any mix/snow but even if it did occur there would not be enough to accumulate). High pressure brings nice days Monday and Tuesday. The midweek period (Wednesday-Thursday) look more unsettled at least in terms of more cloudiness and possibly wetter weather as a battle zone between retreating cool air to the north and advancing warm air from the south will be set up in the region.

Detailed forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs around 50. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Widespread frost. Lows 25-30 inland, 30-35 coast. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny start, mostly cloudy finish. Highs around 55. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Brief passing rain shower mainly north of Boston. Lows 40-45. Wind WSW 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs in the 50s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy.  Low 38. High 54.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 36. High 51.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 40. High 54.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 43. High 55.

Cool Flip

4:44PM

We’re heading into a cooler pattern from the middle of this week into early  next week, but with a largely quiet weather pattern continuing, in terms of storminess. A cold front is moving through as of this evening and any shower activity with it will be exiting via east coastal MA, RI, and Cape Cod, followed by some clearing. The front will be sitting offshore for a while on Wednesday, allowing a wave of low pressure to make a run at southeastern New England, so the clouds will return, along with a rain threat, for Wednesday afternoon. It appears most of the rain will occur along and southeast of the I-95 corridor, with the greatest chance being south of Boston and especially over Cape Cod and the Islands. If rain does make it to Boston, it should be out of the way by the time of the beginning of World Series Game 1 between the Red Sox and Cardinals. It will be a very chilly game though, as will Game 2 on Thursday, but that one being without any threat of precipitation. See below for more on the weather for these games.

Thursday and Friday will be days that feature chilly air, a gusty breeze, and some varying amounts of cloudiness, but also some sunshine, as a big area of low pressure spins over eastern Canada. A small area of high pressure will slide across New England by early Saturday, putting an end to the gusty wind. A disturbance may cross the region later Saturday into Sunday but it looks like more of a cloud producer than a precipitation producer at this time. This is a little weaker outlook for this system than in the previous update. It will reinforce some chilly air for early next week when it departs.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Any showers exit via southeastern MA and RI early. Decreasing cloudiness. Lows 35-40 except lower 40s Boston to  Cape Cod. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding over early. A period of rain possible in the I-95 belt in the afternoon with a period of rain more likely in RI and southeastern MA during this time. Highs 50-56. Wind variable mainly N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with lingering rain possible mainly Cape Cod early. Clearing later. Lows in the 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH.

WORLD SERIES GAME 1 FORECAST: Fenway park should have a temperature around 44 at first pitch and near 40 by the end of the game with a cloudy start followed by clearing later, and  NW breeze 10 to 15 MPH with a few higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs around 50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

WORLD SERIES GAME 2 FORECAST: Partly cloudy. Temperature starting out around 45 by falling to the upper 30s by the end of the game with a gusty NW breeze 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 36. High 51.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 53.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 38. High 55.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 36. High 51.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 39. High 52.

The Week Ahead

7:23PM

A couple mild days will start the week out as high pressure sinks to the south of New England Monday and a cold front approaches Tuesday. A southwest wind will transport the mild air into the region. Only a few showers are possible with the cold frontal passage later Tuesday, but this front will settle just to the south and wait for a wave of low pressure to travel along it on Wednesday, and this will bring a chance of some rain, especially to southern and eastern portions of southeastern New England.  As the low departs Wednesday evening, any lingering moisture and a very chilly air mass could create just the right combination for a few areas to see their first flakes of snow mixed in with a few lingering rain showers. It would not be a snowstorm situation. This low pressure area will intensify as it pushes through the Canadian Maritimes, and as upper level low pressure takes up residence in eastern Canada, this combination means a windier and colder pattern for the end of the week. A disturbance will have to be watched for the weekend as it may bring some unsettled weather to the region and also reinforce the colder air. Details on how this may play out are not clear so the forecast for the end of the week is low confidence.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows from the middle 30s inland valleys to middle 40s immediate coast. Wind W diminishing to around 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 60s, coolest South Coast, may touch 70 few interior areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT:  Partly cloudy. Patchy valley fog. Lows in the 40s to near 50, coolest interior valleys. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. A few passing showers possible. Highs 60-70, coolest south-facing shores. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain especially southeast midday and afternoon. Lingering patches of light rain at night may mix with snow interior areas before ending. Lows around 40. Highs around 50.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Lows in the 30s. Highs around 50.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny and breezy. Lows around 30. Highs around 50.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain in the afternoon, may turn to snow interior areas at night. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers in the morning. Lows around 30. Highs around 50.

Trio To Change Pattern

8:49PM

Our mild pattern has a few days left in it and by the middle of next week will have changed to a cooler than normal one. This will be helped along by a trio of cold frontal passages that will stair-step us down from the current mild spell. The first front will come through early Friday morning, the second front early Sunday morning, and the third late Tuesday night. Each of these fronts will bring a threat of rain showers to southeastern New England, but no widespread rains are anticipated. As a low pressure trough becomes established in central to eastern Canada, it will expand into the north central and northeastern USA as next week gets underway. This will finally send some colder mid Autumn air in this direction.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of showers pushing through west to east pre-dawn. Lows 55-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 65-70, lower 60s South Coast. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 60s. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers overnight. Lows in the 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs around 60. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 42. High 59.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Possible showers at night. Low 46. High 64.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 57.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 36. High 55.

Mild & Unsettled

7:30AM

We’ll be on the mild side of the jet stream for a few more days along with some unsettled weather. A warm front approaching from the southwest and a disturbance moving northward will bring lots of clouds and some shower threat to southeastern New England today. A weak cold front will try to move into the region Thursday but will be lacking any real push and basically wash out over the region. It will provide the alley for a low pressure wave to move up across the region Thursday night and early Friday, when the greatest threat of rain exists. This should move out quickly on Friday and most of the weekend should be dry with a cooling trend.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog this morning. Showers possible mainly Cape Cod and the Islands. Highs in the 60s, coolest in coastal areas. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers late. Lows around 50. Wind SE to S 5-10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers early. Highs in the 60s to around 70. Wind variable around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely especially late. Lows in the 50s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Clouds and showers may linger early then partly to mostly sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind variable 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 45. High 65.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. Highs 60.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 58.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 44. High 59.