The Week Ahead

7:42AM

Cold front sweeps west to east across the region today and tonight into mild and humid air, setting off showers and possible thunderstorms. High pressure builds in Tuesday and holds through midweek with great weather. A disturbance may cause a few more clouds Friday. Watching a storm potentially south of the region over the weekend – should stay south but too early to be sure.

TODAY: Foggy morning. Cloudy and showery afternoon. Highs 60s South Coast, 70s elsewhere. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms, some with heavy rain. Lows around 60. Wind S 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Clearing early then mostly sunny. Highs around 70. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Highs around 60.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Partly sunny – more clouds to the south. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s. Highs upper 50s to middle 60s.

Sunday AM Update

10:42AM

I was too optimistic yet again. Wetter than I expected, cooler than I expected for today. Warm front will take its time pushing north so expect it to stay cool and showery for the bulk of the region today. Warm front finally pushes to the north tonight and introduces mild and muggy air for Monday, but a shower threat during the day and heavier showers/rain at night with a cold front and some tropical moisture that was once associated with Tropical Storm Karen in the Gulf of Mexico. Still expecting the bulk of this rain to come through Monday night and though it may linger into Tuesday morning in the form of showers, it should clear out of here and Tuesday should end much brighter than it starts. Mid to late week still looks decent at this time. Will revisit this in a few hours on an early-issued Week Ahead post.

Southeastern New England Forecast…

TODAY:  Cloudy. Occasional showers. Highs upper 50s-lower 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few showers. Patchy fog. Temperatures steady. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Heavier and more numerous showers late, especially at night. Highs in the 70s. Muggy. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: AM showers / PM clearing. Low 60. High 68.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: Fair weather. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.

Saturday PM Update

4:30PM

Stationary front lingers through Sunday with lots of clouds and a risk of passing showers. Tropcial air surges in for Monday ahead of a cold front that will come through early Tuesday (also have to watch for an influx of tropical moisture associated partially with what is left of Karen). Expecting things to move swiftly enough that it should clear by later Tuesday after lingering showers to start the day. This should lead to a dry mid to late week, though we will have to watch an area of low pressure hanging around in the waters south of New England.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog and passing showers late. Lows 55-60. Wind light variable but mainly E.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing showers possible. High 60-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures steady around 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing showers. Heavier rain possible late day or night. Highs in the 70s. Wind S 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: AM showers / PM clearing. Low 60. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 65.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 72.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 63.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 46. High 60.

Unguided

7:54PM

In my opinion, the models are applesauce today so I’m making a 7 day forecast with very limited use of the ECMWF model and a touch of meteorology. 🙂

This is how I envision it unfolding during the next 7 days:

Nearly stationary frontal system wavers around southern New England into Sunday before pushing north as a warm front. Odds favor the front being over northern MA or southern NH much of Friday and a little further south on Saturday, which will be the cooler of the 2 days. Also, lots of clouds will dominate, and though the rain threat will not be continuous or even that strong a chance, we cannot rule out some occasional shower activity. A stronger push of air from the south will send the entire region into a warm and more humid air mass on Sunday. The shower threat will be minimal, at best, on this day and for now I’m leaving them out of the forecast. A cold front will move into the region from the west on Monday, with an increasing shower threat, and even the possibility of thunderstorms. In addition, tropical moisture from the remains of Tropical Storm Karen (currently in the Gulf of Mexico), is expected to make a run up along the front and may enhance rainfall somewhere in the later Monday through early Tuesday time frame. With less confidence (due to the time distance), I will say that it should clear later Tuesday and cool briefly as it dries out, followed by a fair and warmer midweek as high pressure builds again.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (RI, eastern MA, and southern NH)…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 53-58. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy – limited sun. Slight chance of showers. Highs 67-76, coolest east-facing shores. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH in southern NH and northeastern MA, SE to S 5-15 MPH elsewhere.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows 53-58. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers early. Highs 63-72, coolest coastal areas. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Foggy areas especially South Coast. Lows 55-60. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs in the 70s except upper 60s South Coast.  Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Occasional showers. Chance of heavier rain late. Low 62. High 72.

TUESDAY: Cloudy start with rain possible. Sunny finish. Low 58. High 67.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 50. High 73.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 53. High 78.

Building A Fence

8:24PM

A weak cold front is passing by and will not make it very far south and east of southern New England through Thursday. It will then try to return back across the region as a warm front on  Friday but looks like it may get hung up and sit around the area through Saturday before finally getting pushed to the north on Sunday. What does this all mean? It means there will be more cloudiness around from Thursday night into the weekend along with some threat of showers, though it appears that the greatest threat of any rainfall may be confined to early Friday and that much of the weekend will end up being rain-free. Early next week should start warm and humid with a rain threat as a cold front approaches from the west, but timing is not clear at this point. What is more certain is that a mild to warm temperature pattern is not going anywhere soon.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 50s. Wind W around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY:  Sunshine, filtered at times by variable high clouds. Highs in the 70s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Pre-dawn showers possible in southern NH and Boston’s NW suburbs. Lows around 60. Wind light variable.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers through mid morning, then lots of clouds linger but periods of sun as well. Highs around 70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Low 60. High 75.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Low 60. High 79.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of rain late. Low 62. High 81.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 61. High 75.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 58. High 73.

Warmer Pattern

1:28AM

We’re back in a warmer pattern as October arrives, and it looks like it will be around for a while. Sensible weather during the next 7 days will be driven by the following players:

-Dry, mild weather today between an ocean storm to the east and high pressure to the southwest.

-Warm wedge Wednesday as high pressure sinks to the south of the region with a west wind and high pressure also dominates aloft.

-Weak almost unnoticeable cold front passes early Thursday knocking the temperature back only slightly with more fair weather.

-Warm front approaches Friday, bringing more clouds. Shower threat should be absent but will watch it.

-Weekend: Taste of summer behind the warm front and ahead of a cold front, which may get close enough by Sunday to set off a few showers.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs in the 70s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 50s. Wind light W.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 57. High 79.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 55. High 68.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 56. High 81.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 57. High 79.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 57. High 77.