Lots to talk about in this update!
Before we get to the storm threat for Tuesday night / Wednesday, which is important to talk about given the fact it is such a major time for travel, and we’re also looking for rain to alleviate drought, let’s start with the present, and that is today.
This is an Arctic Sunday, one of the coldest November days in quite some time. Boston will not be setting a record for a record low-high temperature however. For this date, it was 29, but their high will be recorded as 31 as it occurred shortly after midnight. Impressively enough, however, it will not likely get back to 30 at Boston during the day today, something that would be colder than normal for January, let alone November. And this very cold air is covering all of southeastern New England, along with a strong and gusty wind from the northwest. This is going to have an impact on comfort for players and those attending the NFL football game between the Patriots and Broncos tonight in Foxboro. If you are going to that game, think playoffs in January, and dress accordingly. The air temperature will likely be in the lower 20s to even upper teens, with wind chill values near to below 10 as a gusty wind continues. And don’t forget, it’s been very dry, and with recently-fallen leaves and a gusty wind, fire danger is quite high. All it takes is a discarded cigarette or embers from somebody outdoor burning leaves, etc., to have a rapidly-spreading brush fire.
Monday, high pressure in control, cold air still in place, less wind, so a quieter/cold/bright day, but you’ll notice high clouds starting to show in the southwest sky later in the day before the sun sinks to its early bedtime. This is the first hint of a storm system brewing for the middle of the week.
This storm is being born of what will eventually be a combination of energy in the northern jet stream (which has been dominating our weather with cold shots between milder spells so far this month, and a whole lot of dry weather) and the southern jet stream, which has been largely inactive, but is sending a low pressure area eastward out of the US Southwest, picking up Gulf of Mexico moisture, then turning up the East Coast. Though I initially thought the bulk of this system would pass southeast of New England, it is apparent now there should be enough of a link-up to pull the first low pressure area closer, probably passing pretty much right over southeastern New England during the day Wednesday. But before this happens, some moisture will stream ahead of it, partly as a result of the link between the 2 streams beginning to take place, so the sun of Monday will be a memory by Tuesday, which will end up a cloudy day with even some spotty rain trying to break out before days’ end. When the main low comes up, it will be dragging mild air with it, resulting in a mainly rain event for the forecast area of southern NH, eastern MA, and RI, but cold air being drawn into the back side of the quickly departing low Wednesday evening may cause some snow to mix in as precipitation tapers off in the evening. Though this storm may be loaded with moisture, our total amounts may not be as beneficial as they may have been due to the quick-moving nature of the storm, and the possibility that the heaviest rain band will take place west of the region. You’ll also note that I mentioned “first low pressure area” above. There should be some elongation of energy to allow a second low pressure area to get going, but this one should indeed remain offshore and pass harmlessly to sea in the early hours of Thanksgiving morning (if it ever was closer, it would be cold enough for snow). Right now, however, it looks like we’ll be seeing another cold air mass move in for the holiday on Thursday, which should be a windy and chilly day with dry weather (not as cold as today). A very weak disturbance may pass north of the region on Friday (the big shopping day otherwise known as Black Friday), but we should remain dry and chilly here. Looking ahead into the weekend, it also looks mainly dry and chilly at this time as a new area of high pressure builds to the north and refreshes the supply of late Autumn chill and keeps us in our overall drier than normal pattern.
Updated forecast for southeastern New England…
THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly sunny. Temperature holding in the 20s. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with gusts around 40 MPH. Wind chill in the teens.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-15 except 15-20 urban centers. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill below 10, around zero at times.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind 5-15 MPH, still gusting 20-25 MPH through midday before diminishing.
MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 25-30. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain possible in the afternoon. Highs 40-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: AM rain/wind. PM rain showers may end as snow showers early at night. Windy. Warming into 50s to near 60 through midday before falling back to the 30s late.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny and windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. Highs around 40.
WEEKEND: Dry and chilly. Lows in the 20s. Highs 35-45.