Quick Update

7:30AM

Rain won the battle about 12 hours earlier than I expected, so changing today’s forecast to wetter for most areas (obviously). Still may be some rain-free periods as well, just not as much of a battle left to fight. Rest of discussion is essentially the same.

Southeastern New England forecast update…

TODAY: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Periods of rain. Highs 42-50. Wind E to SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Rain, possibly heavy at times with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures rising to the lower 50s. Wind SE 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to S.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain ending west to east early, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny with an additional passing shower possible at times remainder of the day. Highs in the 60s most areas, may hit 70 some inland areas, but 50s South Coast area.  Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers. Low 48. High 66.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Slight chance of rain showers. Low 49. High 66.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers. Low 49. High 64.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix showers. Low 38. High 48.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 37. High 58.

We’re Lucky It’s Chilly And Damp

3:59PM

Your favorite weather, right? Overcast, 40s, east wind off the still-cold North Atlantic? Personally, I don’t mind it. It’s part of Spring in the Northeast. Most, on the other hand, would trade this for something warmer. Well, you can thank this wedge of dankness for saving us from severe weather, because it is very possible that if we had not been under its strong influence leading up to and into the beginning of the passage of the upcoming storm system, we may have gotten into some of the severe weather that has been battering the South and southern Midwest. We would not have come close to the amount of devastating tornadoes, which have quickly put a big dent in one of the slowest-starting severe weather season in recorded history. Nevertheless, we’re protected, and even though the moisture from this nasty Spring storm is going to get here, it will do so in the form of moderate to briefly heavy rain in a time frame from Wednesday night to early Thursday morning, with nothing worse than a few rumbles of thunder, but no severe weather.

Before that, even though we have plentiful Atlantic moisture bringing lots of low cloudiness and a few areas of drizzle to southeastern New England, drier air above will continue to hold the rain off and will put up quite the fight through Wednesday afternoon, before finally giving in. The storm is being driven by a very broad closed upper level low pressure area which will take several days to make its way through the northeastern US. It will not complete the journey through the area until the start of next week, when its cold core center will cross the region and may even bring some very late season snowflakes to some higher elevations. But we’re getting a little ahead of ourselves. It won’t be all bad from now through then. After the ribbon of heavier rain goes through and departs early Thursday, some partial clearing will take place later Thursday into Friday, with fairly mild air, and a southwesterly to westerly breeze as opposed to the chilly easterly wind we’ve had. As the broad upper low exerts its influence through the weekend, we cannot expect complete clearing, but it will be on the mild side through Sunday anyway. Saturday will likely feature more sun than clouds, with Sunday being the opposite, and a shower threat will exist both days, though no all-day rains will occur. Then comes the unsettled and chilly Monday before some drier and cool weather follows that.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Lows 38-44. Wind E 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Areas of very light to light rain mainly north and west of Boston in the afternoon. Highs 42-50. Wind E to SE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Rain becoming steadier from west to east early, possibly heavy at times later at night with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures rising to the lower 50s. Wind SE 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to S.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain ending west to east early, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny with an additional passing shower possible at times remainder of the day. Highs in the 60s most areas, may hit 70 some inland areas, but 50s South Coast area.  Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers. Low 48. High 66.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Slight chance of rain showers. Low 49. High 66.

SUNDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers. Low 49. High 64.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix showers. Low 38. High 48.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 37. High 58.

The Week Ahead

9:44PM

A squeeze play will be ongoing during the next 3 days, which are the final 3 days of April. This will be happening because broad low pressure to the east of New England and a large scale trough and storm system in the Midwest will sandwich a narrow high pressure area over the northeastern US, extending down from a larger high over eastern Canada. The resultant weather for southeastern New England from this set-up will be cloudiness dominating with temperatures near to mostly below normal.

The low pressure area from the west should finally push far enough east to bring its rain into the region by Thursday, tapering to showers at the end of the week but remaining somewhat unsettled right through the weekend as it takes a long while for that broad trough to push across the region.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50s coast, around 60 inland. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs around 50, 40s coast. Wind NE-E 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Low 39. High 49.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Low 42. High 54.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 45. High 63.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 46. High 61.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 62.

Going Gray

12:47PM

Here it is folks! The gray side of Spring. The part that many people forget about when they are wondering where Spring is during or after a harsh winter.  It’s the part of Spring in which cold upper lows, cold ocean flows, or a combo of both, keep us on the cooler side of average and with a lack of sunshine. This will be the case for much of the foreseeable future. Today, low pressure to the northwest of the region is redeveloping just offshore and has sent some rain into the region. This will taper somewhat during the day as energy shifts further offshore, but the cold upper low parenting this system still have to come through, and will do so tonight into Sunday. Another batch of precipitation tonight will start out as rain showers, but with good instability, there are 2 things that cannot be ruled out. The first is thunder. Some of the heavier showers may be accompanied by lightning and thunder. Second is frozen precipitation, sleet and/or snow, which may mix in especially in higher elevations of interior MA and southern NH if intensity is enough to drag cold air down from above. Some areas could even flip completely to sleet/snow for a while, enough to cover some surfaces briefly. This is not a 100% certainty and will not occur everywhere. In any case, the upper low will still be overhead Sunday and even though the risk of precipitation will diminish in the morning and only be limited to a few showers midday and afternoon, clouds will likely hang tough, along with an increasing wind and continued very cool air.

A break, of sorts, may try to occur Monday, but I am having my doubts this will be much of a break, because cloudiness from the slowly-departing low to the east may try to hang on especially in coastal  MA and NH. At the same time another expansive low pressure area will be approaching the eastern US from the Midwest, and this system will probably take its time both getting into the region as well as departing. But what won’t be taking its time will be lots of cloudiness that will result from both onshore flow at lower levels and advancing moisture at higher levels from the southwest. So while rain from that system may wait a while to get here (late Wednesday or even later), cloudiness is going to be the rule for many of the coming days.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

THIS AFTERNOON: Steadiest rain east coastal NH/MA through Cape Cod diminishing gradually with only patchy light rain and drizzle elsewhere along with patchy light fog under a cloudy sky, but clouds may try to break especially southwest and west of Boston late in the day. Highs in the 40s. Wind E to N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with episodes of rain showers, some possibly heavy, including the risk of thunderstorms, and a mix of sleet/snow in higher elevations interior MA and southern NH. Brief accumulations of sleet/snow may occur but this will be more the exception than the rule. Lows in the 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers eastern coastal areas early to mid morning. Only isolated light rain showers possible elsewhere early and all areas for the remainder of the day. Highs upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind N increasing to 15-25 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy eastern areas, partly sunny western areas. Low 40. High 55.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Low 40. High 45 shore to 55 inland.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain late. Low 40. high 45 shore to 55 inland.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 45. High 52.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 46. High 54.

Friday Update

7:31AM

Quick update. No big changes to the discussion so will leave a new one for next update later today. Nice today, unsettled weekend. Still have to watch for the mix/snow threat for some areas Saturday night. Not much this this weekend as clouds hang on Sunday along with wind.

The final 3 days of April look cool but mainly dry, though clouds may end up dominating. Later next week looks wet.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing high clouds. Highs near 60, 50s at the coast. Wind light NW to N this morning, light SE this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Low around 40. Wind light SE to E.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain in the morning. Mostly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs around 50. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, may mix with or change to snow inland higher elevations especially northern MA and southern NH. Lows in the 30s. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers. Highs in the 40s to around 50. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 34. High 54.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 38. High 53.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 39. High 51.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 40. High 50.

Don’t Blow Away

7:25AM

The squeeze-play is on today between departing, intensifying low pressure to the east and a narrow area of high pressure moving in from the west. This will continue the strong and gusty northwesterly air flow across the region, and despite bright April sun, it will feel even cooler than the 50s to near 60 that it is during the day today.  Winds finally drop off tonight but that will just allow temperatures to fall into the 30s in most areas. Friday will be a more tolerable day by April standards, much less wind, still plenty of sun to start, but clouds will advance later in the day ahead of an approaching frontal system. The low pressure area parent to this front will initially start to pass north of the region Saturday but will try to redevelop just over southeastern New England, similar to the system of Wednesday. It will then slowly move away through Sunday. The result will be an unsettled weekend, wettest Saturday, windiest Sunday. In fact, on Saturday, it may be cold enough aloft that precipitation bringing cold air down could cause some mix/snow in higher elevations.

A quick look into next week shows the potential, after a break Monday, for a prolonged period of unsettled weather setting up.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-60. Wind NW 15-25 MPH gusting 35-45 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH early, diminishing overnight.

FRIDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs 60-65, upper 50s coastal areas. Wind light N shifting to SE.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain in the morning (higher elevation mix/snow?). Variably cloudy with a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Low 35. High 48.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 42. High 60.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 45. High 63.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain late. Low 45. High 60.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 45. High 55.

Quick Update

10:43AM

Apologies for the lack of posts. Busy few days, fitting work in, and going for a heart test today. It’s a routine test, nothing wrong!

WEATHER UPDATE

Potent disturbance today, cold air aloft, lots of clouds, areas of showers, a few thunderstorms, even a chance for some hail. Not really a recipe for severe storms, just some notable ones where they occur.

It settles down but stays chilly as low pressure departs to the east and high pressure approaches from the west Thursday. The funneling effect between the 2 will keep it windy, thought it will be a bright day.

Clouds return Friday ahead of the next disturbance which comes through Friday night into Saturday with another round of showers. Still not sure how things turn out later in the weekend and early next week. Will keep a general low confidence forecast for now and re-examine later today.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly to variably cloudy. Occasional showers. A few thunderstorms with possible hail. Highs around 60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH through midday, NW 15-25 MPH and gusty this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind NW 15-25 MPH gusting over 30 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Showers at night. Low 45. High 60.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 47. High 60.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 44. High 62.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.

Warmer Tuesday, Cooler Midweek

10:35PM

A cold front approaches Tuesday, which will be a mild to warm day (cooler South Coast due to wind off water). Rain showers will arrive from the west in the evening, making for a fairly wet night.

Front pushes offshore early Wednesday, which may begin with some showers, as low pressure forms on the front and intensifies while moving away. The balance of the day ends up windy and cooler with breaking clouds. Can’t rule out an additional shower due to some instability.

Thursday will be the brightest day of the week as high pressure moves in from the west, but low pressure to the east will still be close enough to cause a gusty breeze between itself and the approaching high pressure area. It will remain cool.

Late week will see the approach, passage, and departure of a low pressure area, the timing of which remains uncertain. For now, will go for an increase in clouds Friday, wet weather at night, lingering showers into Saturday, then variably cloudy conditions with some lingering threat of showers later Saturday and Sunday. There is conflicting information on whether or not it clears out by next Monday. Will split the difference for now.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs in the 50s South Coast, 60s to around 70 elsewhere. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY  NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows around 50. Wind S 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy and windy. Chance of showers early. Low 49. High 59.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny and breezy. Low 38. High 58.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Showers at night. Low 44. High 62.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 44. High 60.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 46. High 59.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 45. High 56.

The Week Ahead

12:45AM

This week starts with a very special day in this part of the world. Patriots Day, also the day of the Boston Marathon, is an important day in the Boston area. We have history and tradition. There will be a re-enactment of the battle that started the Revolutionary War in Lexington and Concord MA at dawn. It will be fair and chilly for that with temperatures in the upper 30s under a mostly clear, brightening sky, with light wind. There is, of course, The Boston Marathon, which takes on even more significance this year – one year after the bombing. The weather for this great race will be nearly perfect, cool to mild air, generally light wind, with a bit of a cooling sea breeze near the finish. And don’t forget about the Boston Red Sox, playing their annual late-morning start home game at Fenway Park. It will be a great day for April baseball.

How about the rest of the week? Here’s a quick summary.

A cold front approaches Tuesday, which will be a mild to warm day (cooler South Coast due to wind off water). Rain showers will arrive from the west in the evening, making for a fairly wet night.

Front pushes offshore early Wednesday, which may being with some showers, as low pressure forms on the front and intensifies while moving away. The balance of the day ends up windy and cooler with breaking clouds.

Thursday will likely be the brightest day of the week as high pressure moves in from the west, but low pressure to the east will still be close enough to cause a gusty breeze between itself and the approaching high. Cool air will dominate.

Late week will see the approach, passage, and departure of a low pressure area, the timing of which is uncertain. For now, will go for an increase in clouds Friday, wet weather at night, lingering showers into Saturday, then variably cloudy weather with some lingering threat of showers later Saturday and Sunday.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50s coast, 60s inland. Wind S 5-15 MPH, coastal seabreezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Rain showers arriving late day into the night. Highs in the 50s South Coast, 60s to around 70 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy and windy. Chance of showers early. Low 49. High 59.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny and breezy. Low 38. High 58.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Showers at night. Low 44. High 62.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 44. High 60.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 46. High 59.

EASTERly Wind

9:28AM

An east wind off the chilly ocean will make today less mild than yesterday over most of the region, but still a very nice Easter Sunday for those celebrating it, and if you are, I wish you a happy one! High pressure in control will bring plenty of bright sun.

This high holds Monday, which is Patriots Day, or Marathon Monday, and with a more southerly flow it will warm up, especially inland. The wind will be light enough to allow some ocean breezes in coastal areas, and already an onshore flow along the South Coast with the southerly wind, so these areas again will be cooler.

A southwest flow arrives Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Though more clouds are expected, and eventually a shower threat, we’ll see all areas except the South Coast at least in the 60s, with some lower 70s not out of the question.

The front that approaches Tuesday will be slow to move through and will allow low pressure to form on it, keeping Wednesday unsettled and cooler. This low will then intensify and move away slowly, so that Thursday will be a fair but gusty and cool day. The squeeze play will be on Friday between that and another approaching low from the west. Questions arise as to how quickly this low will firstly move in, secondly hang around, and thirdly get the heck out of here. So the later Friday / Saturday forecast is low confidence, and when I put up The Week Ahead post later, we’ll probably add Sunday to the low confidence mix.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs upper 40s coast to upper 50s inland, 60 possible few far inland areas. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows middle to upper 30s inland valleys, lower to middle 40s elsewhere. Wind light E to SE.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 50s coast, 60s inland. Wind S 5-15 MPH, but coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers late. Lows around 50. Highs upper 50s South Coast, 60s to around 70 elsewhere.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs around 60.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 40s. Highs around 60.