Weekend Outlook

7:01PM

A quick discussion, followed by an updated forecast for southeastern New England, focusing on this weekend, and taking a quick look into next week…

Cold front moves through during the evening along with an upper level disturbance. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue but eventually fade somewhat. Upper level low pressure and a new surface low get going offshore early Saturday and temporarily spin a northeast wind into the region with lingering clouds and possibly a little drizzle or a shower, but eventually drier air will work down from the north and at least some partial clearing will occur, with more complete clearing a possibility during the day. If it does not completely clear during the day then it will do so at night, setting up a perfect day on Sunday, 100% sunshine with dry and mild air as high pressure moves overhead.

High pressure pushes offshore Monday allowing some warm air to invade the region. This may continue into Tuesday depending on the timing of the next cold front, which should cross the region sometime Tuesday with unsettled weather. This will likely evolve into a cooler and unsettled pattern for the middle of next week with lots of clouds and some wet weather.

Updated forecast…

TONIGHT: Clouds arrive Cape Cod / Islands. Clouds dominate elsewhere. Showers around, also a chance of early thunderstorms especially away from coastal locations. Lows in the 50s. Wind variable to NNE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Starting mainly cloudy with patchy drizzle and a chance of a few showers, then breaking clouds and increasing sun from north to south, may turn mostly sunny during the afternoon. Highs upper 50s coast to 60s inland. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows upper 30s inland valleys 40s elsewhere except around 50 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind light N to NW.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 60s coast, 70-75 inland. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 80, cooler South Coast.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Low 62. High 77, cooler South Coast.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows 50s. Highs 60s, coolest coast.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 50. High 65.

More Changes, Including The Month

7:42AM

Typical Spring weather, changing often, stubborn at other times. And this pattern will continue as we flip the calendar from May to June this coming weekend.

High pressure centered to the north controls the weather today, which will be nice – warmer than yesterday but still cooler than average. Cold front approaches Friday, warmer day except cooler South Coast, and a shower/thunderstorm threat sometime in the afternoon or at night. Front is sluggish to depart and upper level low pressure crosses the region keeping it slightly unsettled Saturday – the last day of May. But high pressure builds in for a nicer Sunday – the first day of June.

Early next week continues to look iffy, but leaning optimistic for Monday and not so much so for Tuesday and Wednesday. More on this in the next post.

Updated southeastern New England forecast…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 60s, some upper 50s immediate shore. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. Lows 45-50. Wind light S.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms. Highs in the 60s, some lower 70s inland. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 65.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 73, cooler coast.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 56. High 78, cooler South Coast.

TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 50s. Highs 60s.

The Chill Is On (Again)

7:29AM

That was not a back-door cold front. It was a weather system oriented in such a way that its cold front came from the north and northeast. The orientation of the system was determined by the upper level flow and track of the low pressure system parent to the front. But nit-picking aside, however you define it, it’s chilly, and it’s been aided by the still chilly water of the Atlantic. This very cool air will hold today as high pressure starts to build down from the north, but it will take all day to dry out the moisture we have in place. So, drizzle and showers are possible in the morning, and clouds will hang on much of the day but will start to break, possibly before the day is over, from north to south. Will anybody see sun before day’s end? I wouldn’t count on it, but I also would not rule it out. Let’s see how lucky we get. Best chance for any sun will be northern MA and southern NH.

High pressure will continue to press southward tonight and Thursday, finally clearing it out. Though it will be milder tomorrow than today will be, we’ll still be in the cool air, but will have the benefit of strong late May sun to warm it up a bit, especially inland.

Oh look, the ocean influence will be all but gone by Friday (unless you live on the Cape or near the South Coast) but just in time for the approach and passage of a cold front. But a good amount of the day may end up nice before the threat of showers and thunderstorms increases west to east.

The cold front the passes on Friday will probably be sluggish to get out of here, along with passing upper level low pressure, meaning that Saturday may start damp and struggle to clear out. With luck, Sunday (the first day of June) will be a very nice day.

Early next week: Looks like a stand off between warm summery air to the southwest and yet another upper level low pressure area off the coast. I know it’s pretty far away, but if you ask me, my money’s on the upper low. Stay tuned…

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Cloudy with areas of drizzle and a chance of showers through midday. Mostly cloudy this afternoon but breaks of sun may appear especially northeastern MA and southern NH later. Highs in the lower to middle 50s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, becoming N.

TONIGHT: Clearing north to south. Lows upper 30s inland valleys, 40s elsewhere. Wind light N.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs upper 50s immediate coast, 60s elsewhere. Wind light N to NE.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. PM shower/t-storm risk. Low 55. High 70, cooler South Coast and Cape Cod.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers south and east. Low 55. High 65.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 75, cooler coast.

MONDAY & TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Eventual shower threat possible. Lows 50s. Highs 70s, cooler coast.

The Week Ahead

7:45AM

Today begins a new week, or continues a long weekend, depending on how you look at it. I would like to take a moment to remember all those who have served this country. We must never forget the sacrifices made for our freedom.

I hope everybody has a safe and happy Memorial Day, regardless of your plans.

Regarding those plans, some of the early ones will be impacted by wet weather, but there is less of a chance that later ones will be, as we get a somewhat-active warm front through here this morning with showers (more around than I would have expected), and then just potentially pop up a spot thunderstorm in a few locations later today in warm and slightly unstable air. It will end up feeling like summer today. But that does not last…

The overall pattern is one of troughing in the Northeast and that will be evident this week. A disturbance helping to re-carve this trough will drop a cold front southward through New England early Tuesday and a wave of low pressure will then ride along it later Tuesday, with some wet weather. This will create a sharp drop in temperature from the briefly warm weather coming in now, and then set up a chilly northeast wind into Wednesday when lots of clouds will linger. A bit of drier air will work in Thursday with some hope for at least some sunshine, but still on the cool side. The next frontal system arrives from the west Friday when there will be a shower threat. This front pushes offshore by Saturday but upper level low pressure may delay complete clearing and allow for a chance of a few showers. Optimistically, a bubble of high pressure should provide for a decent Sunday (but at day 7, adjustments may be necessary).

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Mostly cloudy with episodes of showers during the morning. Partly sunny this afternoon with isolated showers or thunderstorms possible by late day. Highs ranging from the 60s South Coast and Cape Cod to 80-85 most interior locations. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a passing shower or t-storm early. Lows 60-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers developing, especially during the afternoon hours. Highs 65-70 early, falling toward 60 inland and to the 50s coast during the afternoon. Wind W to variable around 10 MPH becoming NE to E 5-15 MPH and gusty by afternoon.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 50. High 60.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 52. High 65.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 70.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 52. High 66.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 73.

Memorial Day Weekend Update

7:45AM

Bringing things up-to-date as of Sunday morning…

Upper level low pressure centered to the east, still spinning spokes of energy southward across New England. Though this departs by Memorial Day, we remain on the northwest flow side (eastern side) of a ridge of high pressure through the early part of the coming week. Today will be somewhat similar to yesterday with lots of clouds, some sun, but a chance of pop up showers and thunderstorms. The greatest chance for activity today will be away from the coast (especially interior NH and MA) where it will be most unstable. Though we initially get into a warmer westerly flow for the holiday itself, a disturbance and frontal system over northern New England will be close enough that it may try to send a few showers and thunderstorms toward southern New England, but the majority of the area will remain dry for the holiday with most of the action to the north and a better chance of some pushing southward at night. Finally, the front to the north will push back to the south as high pressure builds in eastern Canada, and this will quickly cool it down again during Tuesday and into Wednesday. A change from the previous outlook is to allow some drier air to eliminate the chance of showers by later Tuesday and continue it rain-free on Wednesday. The end of the week will see a warm up Thursday-Friday, but Friday may end up with a round of showers and thunderstorms as another front approaches. As long as things keep moving, we’d see drier and cooler air for the final day of May next Saturday.

Southeastern New England Forecast…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially away from eastern coastal areas. Any storms that form may produce small hail in isolated locations. Highs from 60 coastal areas to 70 well inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Lingering isolated showers mainly inland areas early. Patchy fog. Lows in the 50s. Wind light variable to W.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Slight risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs from the 60s Cape Cod and South Coast to 80-85 much of interior MA and southern NH, 70s most of the east coastal plain. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a chance of showers during the morning. Partly to mostly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs 70-75 except 60s some coastal areas by midday then falling through the 60s all areas to upper 50s eastern coastal areas later. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NE from north to south across the region.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 50. High 64.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 53. High 72.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Low 60. High 76.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 65.

Memorial Day Weekend Outlook

5:40PM

We’ll have to take the good with the bad this holiday weekend. What’s good and what’s bad, you ask? I guess, using popular opinion, the bad would be the fact that upper level low pressure will take its time exiting the region and will still have an impact on southeastern New England both Saturday and Sunday, and that yet another disturbance will be on the approach by late on Memorial Day Monday. The good is the fact that some drier air will work in from the northeast and north Saturday, clearing the region at least partially, and even more so on Sunday. More of the bad is that there will be a chance of pop up showers and a thunderstorm both days, due to lingering instability from some cold air aloft. The good of this is that these will not be long-lasting or widespread. We’ll also have to be on the lookout for the disturbance moving down from the north late Monday, as conditions become somewhat more favorable for stronger storms if things come together just right.  As for the air temperature, it will start out on the cooler side of normal and then gradually warm with time, so that the warmest day will be the holiday itself. By that night, however, we may be dealing with a cold front charging down from the north. This will be dependent on the timing and positioning of the new disturbance.  This also makes the forecast beyond the holiday a little more complex as there are some unknowns. Will word the extended forecast somewhat vague and general for now and adjust as is necessary.

Have a safe and happy weekend everyone, and please remember those who have served our country to make it possible for us to do many of the things we enjoy!

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 50. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Clouds decrease for more sun from northeast to southwest by midday. Rebuilding clouds especially interior NH and MA to northern RI afternoon with scattered showers. Highs upper 50s to lower 60s coast, middle 60s to around 70 inland. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog interior valleys. Lows in the 50s. Wind light N.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly away from the coast. Highs in the 70s except 60s immediate coast and Cape Cod. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Mostly to partly sunny morning. Partly to mostly cloudy afternoon and night with a risk of showers and thunderstorms especially NH and northeastern MA. Highs in the 70s to around 80, except 60s Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Low 55. High 68, cooler coast.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/drizzle. Low 50. High 63, cooler coast.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 51. High 66, cooler coast.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 53. High 71, cooler coast.

The No Go Low

3:37PM

An upper level low pressure area will amble its way across New England but be very sluggish in doing so, not quite wanting to get out of here until sometime over the Memorial Day Weekend, so there is going to be a shower threat in the forecast through Sunday. The good news is, by Sunday the shower risk will become minimal. Also holding out much hope for a little taste of Summer for the Memorial Holiday itself on Monday.

Looking ahead into next week, it looks warm and possibly thundery on Tuesday, and very nice at midweek as a passing cold front is followed by a bubble of high pressure.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

THROUGH EVENING: Cloudy. Periodic showers. Temperatures upper 50s coast to 60s inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy fog. Occasional showers. Lows around 50. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Patchy fog. Occasional showers. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Low 50-55. Wind light NE.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND…

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. High 60-65, cooler coast. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated PM thunderstorms. Low 55. High 74, cooler Cape Cod.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 58. High 84, cooler South Coast.

MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK…

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Low 60. High 77.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.

Wednesday Update

2:20AM

This is an update to the previous forecast.

No significant changes to the previous discussion.

Updating the forecast for details and time periods.

TODAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs from near 60 coastal areas to  near 70 inland areas. Wind light variable becoming SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain late. Lows in the 50s. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Temperatures steady in the 50s, lower 60s possible well away from the coast. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 51. High 64, cooler coast.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 50. High 68, cooler coast.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 54. High 74.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 57. High 81.

TUESDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Low 60. High 76.

Two Not Of A Kind

3:06PM

Two low pressure areas will continue to be the dominant features for the balance of the week (through Saturday). The first one was responsible for the ribbon of heavy rain in the early hours of  Saturday, the few showers that popped up Sunday, and the more numerous showers over eastern New England Monday and Monday night. This low continues to have some influence today as the sun heating the ground has interacted with the chilly air aloft and popped more clouds. This time only isolated showers are possible, and if they occur it will be only through early evening. Most areas will not see these. This low pressure area, centered to the east of the region, finally moves away by early Wednesday but makes way for another one approaching from the west. We’ll hear from it first in the form of increasing clouds Wednesday afternoon, then some wet weather Wednesday night through Friday (not raining the entire time), and cool air, especially Thursday. This is a little different than how the current low has impacted the region, but moving away Saturday it will be somewhat similar to its cousin, with a few instability showers possible to start the Memorial Day Weekend. But as we get to the  middle and end of the holiday weekend, Sunday and Memorial Day Monday look much better, and warmer, as a westerly flow takes over.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

THROUGH EVENING: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers possible especially coastal NH and eastern MA. Temperatures start out middle 60s to lower 70s cooling to upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind light N to NE.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows middle 40s inland valleys to middle 50s shoreline and urban centers. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs from near 60 coastal areas to  near 70 inland areas. Wind light variable becoming SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain developing. Lows in the 50s. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Temperatures steady in the 50s. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 51. High 64.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 50. High 68.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 54. High 74.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 57. High 81.

The Week Ahead Plus

7:53PM

Oh, Summer must be coming, because it’s an 8-day week ahead post! That means that a long weekend looms, and indeed it does – the first weekend of the Summer for many, the start of the tourist season, otherwise known as Memorial Day Weekend. Of course, we should not and will not forget the meaning of the holiday itself, which actually falls on May 30 but is celebrated on the last Monday of May. And on that day and every day we should remember all of those who have served our country. In this post, we’ll take a look all the way out through Memorial Day (May 26).

The Work Week: It’ll be a “low pressure work week”, maybe not in your job, but in the weather. The weather will be governed by 2 low pressure areas, one that sits and spins just to the east of New England with an upper extension over the region Monday and Tuesday, and that one getting out of the way for a second low pressure area that arrives from the west late Wednesday and hangs on through Friday. The first low will provide instability that will bring the chance of showers and a few thunderstorms both Monday and Tuesday. Widespread rains are not expected, but anybody could get wet at times especially Monday afternoon and a couple more times on Tuesday. Some places may escape much of the shower activity as it will be somewhat hit and miss. The second low will bring periods of rain as early as Wednesday night and lingering Thursday and Friday. Its exact position will determine how often rain occurs and how widespread it is, but it looks right now like the second system will deliver more widespread rain, though not particularly heavy, for the end of the work week.

The Long Weekend: It’s a long way off, from a forecasting standpoint, but the early call is that low pressure will continue to bother the region on Saturday, with a continued chance of some wet weather. With some luck it will be pulling off to the east with slow improvement. It is starting to look like a more westerly flow will bring drier and warmer weather for Sunday and Monday – something that will be monitored as the week goes on.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows in the 40s to lower 50s, mildest along the coast and in urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouds redevelop. Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms in the afternoon. Any thunderstorms that occur could produce small hail. Highs in the 60s. Wind NW to N 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 50-55. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of additional showers. Highs in the 60s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun to start, clouds to finish, possibly turning wet at night. Low 50. High 65.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain. Lows 50-55. Highs 55-60.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 50. High 60.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 70.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 80.