We have reached the end of the last weekend of June 2014, and now we are staring at the last day of June (Monday) and the big July 4th Weekend (Friday through Sunday, or longer for some people that have utilized well-placed time off). So, what’s the weather going to be? Of course, time will tell for sure, but the following will be my best shot at predicting it.
The weather systems: High pressure slides offshore Monday and Tuesday as June ends and July begins, establishing a southwesterly flow. One weakening cold front attempts to move into the region Wednesday but falls apart. A second slightly stronger cold front moves through the region Thursday, with some question as to timing – does it move right along or slow down? Contrary to popular opinion, computerized and otherwise, I am going to play the scenario of the front moving right in, slowing down, but also weakening. The wildcard in this forecast is the development and movement of a tropical low pressure area near the US Southeast Coast (likely to become a depression and possibly the first tropical storm of the season). This system will probably stay offshore of the Northeast as it eventually moves north then northeast late next week. High pressure builds in from the west as the tropical low scoots seaward by next weekend.
The resulting weather: Heat and humidity builds into Wednesday, with humidity not too noticeable Monday but moreso Tuesday and especially Wednesday. A minimal thunderstorm risk will be present Wednesday as the first cold front washes out nearby. A better chance of showers/storms takes place Thursday with the second front, but again location and timing of these is never an easy thing to postulate several days in advance, so the wording on the forecast below will be general, and become more detailed as the day gets closer. A benefit of having a tropical low pressure area organizing to the south of the region at this time, including the Independence Day holiday on Friday, will be to potentially take away available moisture for any lingering frontal system during this time. That may end up diminishing shower and storm chances later Thursday and Friday, though the mention of them will appear in the forecast for now. Assuming things have moved along, lower humidity, warm air, and fair weather will be here for the weekend.
The detailed forecast (for southeastern New England)…
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-65, coolest interior valleys. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 82-88 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Increasing humidity. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 77-84 South Coast, 85-91 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 64-70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated thunderstorms. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 70. High 88.
FRIDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 68. High 83.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 81.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 83.