The Week Ahead

7:22PM

We have reached the end of the last weekend of June 2014, and now we are staring at the last day of June (Monday) and the big July 4th Weekend (Friday through Sunday, or longer for some people that have utilized well-placed time off). So, what’s the weather going to be? Of course, time will tell for sure, but the following will be my best shot at predicting it.

The weather systems: High pressure slides offshore Monday and Tuesday as June ends and July begins, establishing a southwesterly flow. One weakening cold front attempts to move into the region Wednesday but falls apart. A second slightly stronger cold front moves through the region Thursday, with some question as to timing – does it move right along or slow down? Contrary to popular opinion, computerized and otherwise, I am going to play the scenario of the front moving right in, slowing down, but also weakening. The wildcard in this forecast is the development and movement of a tropical low pressure area near the US Southeast Coast (likely to become a depression and possibly the first tropical storm of the season). This system will probably stay offshore of the Northeast as it eventually moves north then northeast late next week. High pressure builds in from the west as the tropical low scoots seaward by next weekend.

The resulting weather: Heat and humidity builds into Wednesday, with humidity not too noticeable Monday but moreso Tuesday and especially Wednesday. A minimal thunderstorm risk will be present Wednesday as the first cold front washes out nearby. A better chance of showers/storms takes place Thursday with the second front, but again location and timing of these is never an easy thing to postulate several days in advance, so the wording on the forecast below will be general, and become more detailed as the day gets closer. A benefit of having a tropical low pressure area organizing to the south of the region at this time, including the Independence Day holiday on Friday, will be to potentially take away available moisture for any lingering frontal system during this time. That may end up diminishing shower and storm chances later Thursday and Friday, though the mention of them will appear in the forecast for now. Assuming things have moved along, lower humidity, warm air, and fair weather will be here for the weekend.

The detailed forecast (for southeastern New England)…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-65, coolest interior valleys. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 82-88 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Increasing humidity. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Humid. Highs 77-84 South Coast, 85-91 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 64-70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated thunderstorms. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 70. High 88.

FRIDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 68. High 83.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 81.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 83.

Special Extended Outlook

11:19AM

The weather pattern during the next 9 days will be better than you are being lead to believe by some. There will be some humidity, and though I realize that some like that, the majority prefer it a little drier, and the drier air will be the dominant of the 2 varieties during this time. The most humid weather will come during part of the middle of next week, a time when a more southwesterly flow will transport that humidity up into the Northeast before a couple weak cold fronts drive it away again. It’s also a fairly warm pattern, after a brief cool shot which is now ending. Though there is no very high heat in sight, a few areas may be hitting 90 for the first time on one or 2 days. This extra extended outlook will include highlights and a forecast for this weekend and next week including the 4th of July weekend.

Weather systems:

High pressure builds over the region this weekend, and with warm air coming in aloft some high cloudiness will present itself at times today and Sunday, along with some fair-weather cumulus popping up during the afternoon hours each day from the sun’s heating. These will not grow enough to produce showers. So, a great weekend – plenty of sun, warmer air, but not humid.

“Work week” weather: Not a full work week for everyone. In fact, some of us only have a one-day work week (Monday – ahem ahem). Heat and humidity tweak up a notch Monday as a west to southwest flow becomes established, though it will still be quite tolerable. The Tuesday-Thursday period will be the most humid, especially Wednesday. A series of fairly weak cold fronts will move through the region during these 3 days, each with the possibility of setting off isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. But it appears to me that most of the “energy” for activity will pass to the north of the region, limiting the ability to pop lots of organized activity. Timing of boundaries will influence activity. In fact, by Thursday afternoon, the last of these may be already moving away and we may start to dry out earlier than some computers currently indicate.

Fourth of July Weekend: I know it’s a long way off, but right now it looks like it will turn out pretty decent overall. The most likely scenario is warm/dry weather for much of the time, especially the holiday itself on Friday. But with the pattern still the type that keeps the mean ridge centered over the middle of the US, there is always room for troughs to come scooting along through the Great Lakes and Northeast, and a small one may do just that at some point next weekend with a period of clouds and a possible shower/t-storm. But to try to pin-point such an event 8 days out would be just silly, so suffice it to say that the holiday weekend looks decent overall, with perhaps an interruption or 2 somewhere.

Day-by-day forecast (with less detail and confidence late in the period)…

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 80-86, 70s coast/beaches. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 55-60 except 60-65 urban centers and coast. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 81-87, 70s to near 80 coast/beaches. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 66. High 88.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon t-storms. Low 67. High 89.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated morning showers. Scattered afternoon t-storms. Low 68. High 89.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated morning to midday showers/t-storms. Low 68. High 87.

FRIDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 63. High 84.

WEEKEND: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers/t-storms possible but rain-free most of the time. Lows 60-65. Highs 80-85.

This Is The Summer Pattern

7:44PM

We are in the pattern expected for at least the first half of Summer. Heatwaves will be hard to come by, but the pattern has adjusted itself just enough to allow a little more heat once in a while, as may be expected as we head toward July. But the dominant pattern still allows a boundary to often reside nearby and disturbances moving along it to produce some unsettled weather and temperature shifts.

There will be times when the mean ridge position over the central US is a little more expansive and pushes the dominate upper wind to more westerly, allowing more warm/hot days than cooler ones, and such a shift is about to take place. Other times we’ll see more of a northwesterly flow over the Northeast US with more variable temperatures resulting.

The warmer regime will get underway after 1 day of cooler northerly flow on Friday, put in place on Thursday as low pressure developed on a passing cold front and dragged cooler air down from eastern Canada and the Maritimes. It was fairly humid overnight and into the morning and it’s been slow to dry, but it is doing so now. Also some pop up showers and downpours occurred mainly over inland areas from south central NH into north central MA but these will fade quickly as a clearing trend comes down from the north tonight.

Lots of sun should dominate Friday through Sunday, with warming conditions this weekend as the wind turns more westerly.

Next week looks fairly Summery, typical for the end of June and start of July.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clearing north to south. Lows upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind N to NE  5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 70s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 50s. Wind light NE to N.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 80-85 except 70s coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH, but some coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows around 60. Wind light variable becoming W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 80s, cooler some coastal areas. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 67. High 88.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 68. High 87.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 69. High 89.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 88.

Dodge ’em

11:18PM

If you are in eastern MA, far southern and southeastern NH, and RI, you won’t likely see a whole lot of shower and thunderstorm activity even with the passage of a cold front and a developing low pressure area on it by Thursday. It will just be too warm aloft on Wednesday and I feel that the system itself will under-achieve due to dry air aloft messing it all up. However, we will have a risk of episodic showers/storms for a time between the overnight hours of late Wednesday night / early Thursday morning and extending into the day on Thursday. After that, improvement arrives Friday as high pressure starts to build in, though it may be a sluggish process, allowing for some additional clouds at times Friday. High pressure should dominate the weekend and early next week with fair and warm weather. A little bit of heat may try to build in around the start of next week as high pressure slips off to the south allowing a southwesterly flow to develop.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Increasingly humid. Lows around 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun & clouds, with most sun south and east. Humid. Highs 70s to lower 80s South Coast and Cape Cod, middle 80s to near 90 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms mainly well northwest of Boston through evening then an increasing chance of showers/storms further southeast overnight. Muggy. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW to variable 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 60. High 77.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 83.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 86.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 67. High 89.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Low 68. High 86.

Tuesday AM Update

7:27AM

Just a quick forecast update – no big changes to the discussion from Sunday evening. Full update this evening.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70s South Coast, lower 80s elsewhere. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 70s south Coast, 80-85 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of showers/thunderstorms. Low 65. High 80.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 58. High 78.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. Highs around 80.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63.  High 85.

The Week Ahead

8:25PM

Models are overcooking the weather right now. They forecast too much precipitation over the coming week. There won’t be much. High pressure holds early in the week but starts to slide offshore with a wind flow turning from southeast to southwest. Cold front slides through the region Wednesday (timing uncertain) with a chance of passing showers and thunderstorms. High pressure builds back into the region later in the week, though weather systems will probably be fairly weak with no strong pushes of neither cool nor hot air, just kind of normal in temperature and on the drier side.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Few clouds dissipate. Lows middle 40s deep valleys, 50s elsewhere. Wind light E to variable.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70s coast, lower 80s inland. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows lower 50s inland valleys to around 60 urban centers. Wind light S.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs middle 70s South Coast to lower 80s inland. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 62. High 82.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 61. High 81.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 63. High 79.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 81.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 84.

Take The Good With The Good

5:41PM

No doubt about it. It’s a great June weather pattern now. High pressure dominates through Tuesday, sinking north to south across the northeastern US and eventually landing in the western Atlantic, south of the region, by early next week. This means fair weather, starting mild and dry (cool at night), then trending warmer with an increase in humidity. A cold front is expected to amble through the region around the middle of next week with a shower/thunderstorm threat later Wednesday into Thursday, with dry weather returning for the end of next week.

Don’t forget! Summer Solstice occurs at 6:51AM Saturday!

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: High cloudiness at times especially west and southwest sky. Lows in the 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of sun, but filtered by high clouds at times. Highs in the 70s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind light NW.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 60. High 81.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 82.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Late shower or t-storm? Low 66. High 85.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/t-storms. Low 68. High 82.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 82.

When Is That Front Coming Again? Don’t Worry About That Right Now, Just Enjoy The Nice Weather!

3:29PM

High pressure and a northerly to westerly air flow will dominate through the weekend with very nice weather. It now looks like high pressure will hold strong into early next week with the air flow turning more southerly, hence increasing humidity. A cold front is due sometime in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame and frankly, I’m not sure exactly when it’ll get here. Something to watch. That front will present a risk of showers and thunderstorms and then a shift to slightly cooler/drier air behind it.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 70s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 70s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 60. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 65. High 85.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Late t-storm? Low 68. High 86.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/storms? Low 66. High 82.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 59. High 76.

Nice Days Ahead

5:18PM

Well here it comes. They waited for it. They complained all Winter. They said that we had the worst Spring you can remember (even though that was very far from the truth). Now, if anybody complains about the weather in the next 4 days, then there is simply no pleasing them, because it’s going to be about as nice as it gets. We’ll be in a northwest to north flow of very nice air, a warm start with a cooling trend, but still quite nice, through the weekend. The only bump in the road may be a disturbance passing south of the region early Thursday bringing some cloudiness. And it is all lead in by some cloudiness with a secondary cold front passing through the region tonight.

You don’t want to talk about next week yet, do you??? But it’s going to be so nice through the weekend and why would you want to look beyond that? Maybe because you have a vacation planned or a few days off, or you just want to know. Ok fine…

Disturbance moves through early to middle of next week. Models have slowed this feature from Monday to Tuesday, but for now I’m going to keep it more likely to be Monday, maybe into early Tuesday. This disturbance will bring a shower and thunderstorm threat, but not likely a widespread rain. Fair weather returns by the middle of next week. No heatwaves in sight…yet.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 60-65, few upper 50s possible outlying areas north central MA and interior southern NH. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Lots of clouds across MA and RI and less so in southern NH in the morning. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind light NW.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs middle to upper 70s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 75.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 58. High 74.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered PM showers/thunderstorms . Low 60. High 77.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered AM showers. Low 62. High 76.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 81.

Summer Shot

7:34AM

It is technically still Spring (until Saturday), though in many a mindset Summer has already begun. And we’ll have an injection of Summertime weather today and Wednesday with warm to hot air invading the region. Along with this though will be a couple disturbances – a warm front passing the region today that has triggered a few showers and thunderstorms in southern MA and RI. These will move away early today which will then just feature clouds and sun, with sun becoming more dominant before giving in to more clouds later in the day again. A cold front will charge through the region on Wednesday, but a trough preceding it may literally “steal the thunder” from what could have been an outbreak of strong to severe storms. This trough will bring a shower and thunderstorm threat in the early to mid morning hours of Wednesday, some of which may be strong, but more stable air behind it will hold back storm development later in the day when the actual front passes. But with the cooler air behind the actual front, it will allow it to heat up during the day Wednesday after the storm threat, even though the humidity level, which will increase today, will drop tomorrow during the afternoon.

After all this, it looks like a couple days of drier and cooler air (Thursday-Friday) as a northwesterly flow from Canada takes over. High pressure will build in and try to hold on for the coming weekend, though a frontal boundary not too far to the southwest has to be watched as it may try to toss some cloudiness back into the region during Saturday and especially Sunday, when low pressure forming on this boundary may bring a chance of wet weather into the region before the weekend is finished. This unsettled weather should continue into Monday of next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: A few showers/thunderstorms Cape Cod & southern RI early to mid morning.  Partly to mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s, 70s South Coast and Cape Cod. More humid. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms through mid morning, then partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 70s Cape Cod, 80s to around 90 elsewhere. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 58. High 80.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 54. High 76.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 58. High 78.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers late. Low 56. High 75.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Low 60. High 74.