Pop Ups / Iffy Weekend

2:17AM

The next 2 days we will be under the influence of a very weak high pressure area but still in between a frontal boundary and another trough of low pressure to the west. The energy from the west will be enough to set off a round or 2 of pop up showers and possible thunderstorms each of the next 2 afternoons (today and Friday). Most areas will not see anything as coverage will be isolated to scattered, but anywhere that does see something could experience a downpour. The greatest threat for these pop ups will be along and northwest of a line from Providence RI to Boston MA.

By Saturday, the offshore frontal boundary will back up toward the coast, likely increasing the cloudiness over the region. The wildcard is how much rain gets involved, and there will be the chance of areas of rain, but at this stage my guess is that the greatest chance for this rain will be over Cape Cod and southeastern MA and less so elsewhere. Sunday, the boundary, though weak, will likely push further northwestward into the region, and it should be a muggy day with lots of clouds, some sun, and occasional showers and thunderstorms. This may linger into Monday as the front washes out over eastern New England. By Tuesday into midweek, weak high pressure should return and bring fair weather.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, especially inland areas. Highs 74-82, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the 60s. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, again mainly inland. Highs 75-83, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain at times, especially southeastern MA. Low 64. High 78.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of showers/thunderstorms. Low 68. High 82.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 68. High 84.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 81.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 82.

Where The Boundary Lies

1:21AM

As July winds down and August approaches we’ll be dealing with the same issue, and that is watching the boundary of cool air to the west associated with a Great Lakes and Midwest low pressure trough, and warmer air to the east associated with upper level high pressure. Where the boundary lies will determine the weather in southeastern New England in the days ahead. For the most part this boundary will be far enough east that the focus of any serious rain will be well offshore, and only a few pop up showers are expected daily the next few days. There are some indications that retrogression (westward movement) of the pattern will take place over the weekend with eventually a better chance of wet weather, but there is still some uncertainty. For now, going to go with some wet weather, favoring the second half, but not a wash out of a weekend.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers, especially inland. Highs 70s to near 80, coolest coast. Wind variable around 10 MPH with sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and a slight risk of a thunderstorm, again mainly inland areas. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s, coolest coast. Wind variable, mainly S, 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated PM showers/thunderstorms inland. Low 63. High 82, cooler coast.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated PM showers, mainly inland. Low 64. High 81, cooler coast.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers, slight risk t-storms. Low 63. High 80, coolest South Coast.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated PM showers/t-storms. Low 64. High 84, cooler coast.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 85, cooler coast.

Quieter Times

10:30PM

Eventful weather Monday. You know all about it by now, so we won’t spend any time going there on the discussion here, however feel free to continue to talk about it in the comments!

Now it’s time to look ahead. And first we have drier air sweeping in behind departing low pressure, that will make a very pleasant Tuesday. Narrow high pressure will hold its ground between a frontal boundary offshore in a trough to the west Wednesday through Friday with fair weather resulting, again with the lack of heat. By the weekend, we may see a squeeze-play as the front offshore tries to back westward and the trough to the west tries to push eastward, resulting in at least more cloudiness. It’s unclear this far in advance if any wet weather will become involved. High pressure may strengthen somewhat by early next week with a more typical feel of early August.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Variably cloudy with isolated showers mainly far NW of Boston through midnight, then clearing. Drier. Lows 55-63, coolest NW suburbs of Boston through interior southern NH. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-81. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-63, coolest interior valleys. Wind light W.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 73-80, coolest coastal areas. Wind light variable with sea breezes.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 80, cooler coast.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 82, cooler coast.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight risk of showers Cape Cod. Low 63. High 80, cooler coast.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight risk of showers interior MA/NH. Low 64. High 82, cooler coast.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 84, cooler South Coast.

The Week Ahead

6:41PM

This Summer’s weather could be a whole lot worse given the lack of high pressure ridging and the number of low pressure troughs coming through. We have seen temperatures not that far from normal overall, and despite some episodes of severe storms, we have not seen too much in the way of very nasty or excessively wet weather. And the coming week will be representative of the Summer up to this point – a bit of storminess, some great weather, and a lack of heat.

The stormy day will be Monday, because a low pressure area has to cut right across New England and this will bring many showers and some thunderstorms. There is a slight risk of some briefly severe storms, but widespread severe weather is unlikely as the timing of the activity will be before maximum  heating and other factors influencing severe storms and allowing them to form and sustain themselves will be mostly borderline. Nevertheless, keep an eye on current conditions during the day Monday should any severe storms develop.

The upper level trough responsible for sending Monday’s low pressure area through here is another one that is deeper than average, like the recent one, and will be hanging around the Great Lakes for a few days while slowly weakening. But dry air on the back side of the departing low Monday night will sweep into southeastern New England on Tuesday, which will be a very nice Summer day with lower humidity and mild air.

A weak area of high pressure will be over the region on Wednesday, keeping the weather fair, as the trough continues to weaken to the west and high pressure starts to build off the Atlantic Coast. This type of set-up is a fair weather one with sea breezes in coastal areas.

Later in the week expect a slow weakening of the trough to the west to continue while a slow strengthening of high pressure takes place offshore. It does not evolve into the classic summertime Bermuda High set up at this point but is enough to bring generally fair and mild to warm weather for the end of the week, though a disturbance may try to get going between these upper level systems to bring at least some cloudiness to the region by next weekend, though so far it looks largely rain-free.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clouds push eastward across the region early then decrease for a while before increasing again from the southwest later. Showers/thunderstorms southwest of Boston before dawn. Areas of low clouds and fog forming as well. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog early. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms, some possibly strong, especially through midday then less so in the afternoon. Humid. Highs in the 70s coastal areas, around 80 inland. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lowering humidity. Lows 60-65. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 70s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Highs 72-79, coolest coast.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Highs 75-82, coolest South Coast.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Highs 78-85, coolest coast.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Cape Cod showers? Lows 60-67. Highs 74-81, coolest coast.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. PM t-storms interior? Lows 61-68. Highs 77-84, coolest coast.

Weekend Update

8:23AM

No changes to the previous discussion and very little change to the details of the forecast that accompanied it. Here is a slightly updated forecast for southeastern New England for this weekend and next week (through Friday).

TODAY: Sun mixed with high clouds. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers after midnight. More humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring late morning and late afternoon/evening. Humid. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s, coolest South Coast. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 80.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms through midday. Low 64. High 79.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 78.

THURSDAY:  Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 79.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 63. High 80.

Friday Dryday

10:33PM

The transition day is done, and it was a nice day for many, despite some cloudiness. Some wet weather was still hanging around parts of Cape Cod, but now it’s time for a high pressure area to build in for Friday with pleasantly dry air and mild to warm temperatures, along with lots of sun and a few clouds – a great Summer day!

The weekend will be a split decision. High pressure hangs on Saturday which will be a warm day with fair weather and a slight increase in humidity. By Sunday, a trough from the west will bring unsettled weather with more humidity as well as showers and thunderstorms. This will continue Monday as a deeper trough of low pressure digs into the Midwest and Great Lakes. The trough should start to weaken and lift northeastward into southeastern Canada toward the middle of next week with improving conditions.

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows in the 50s except lower 60s urban areas and immediate coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs around 80, cooler Cape Cod and South Coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to S.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows around 60, some 50s interior valleys. Wind light S.

SATURDAY: Sun mixed with high clouds. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s, coolest South Coast. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 80.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 64. High 84.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 81.

THURSDAY:  Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 83.

Heat It, Cool It, Warm It, Pool It

8:44PM

Weather changes will be plenty for the next several days. First a hot and breezy Wednesday not without a thunderstorm threat in the afternoon and evening, especially northwest of Boston where some strong to severe storms are possible. This will be triggered by a cold front sliding in from the Great Lakes and nearby Canada. The details of the thunderstorms will be worked out and updated through comments and on the Facebook page (for those who have access to it).

By Thursday, the front responsible for the storms will also be introducing much cooler air, but the front itself maybe sluggish so clouds and a shower threat will linger especially in eastern areas for a while before improvement arrives. High pressure will bring this improvement as it starts to build in, and then will deliver a couple great days Friday and Saturday, with lower humidity but a warming trend. And then  the next change will be taking place as a trough of low pressure, again rather deep for the time of year, drops out of Canada into the Great Lakes and Midwest and sends increasing moisture this way during Sunday and Monday, at which time some significant shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to develop. The trough should start to lift into southeastern Canada and weaken by next Tuesday with improvement but still some risk of a shower as humidity will likely be on the higher side.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Areas of low clouds and fog, especially coastal areas and Cape  Cod. Clear but hazy elsewhere. More humid. Lows 65-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Any low clouds and fog burning off early then hazy sunshine but developing clouds in the afternoon, some possibly building into thunderstorms and a few areas mainly northwest of Boston, and also a line of storms possibly approaching from the west by evening. Any storms may be strong. Humid. Highs from near 80 Cape Cod and 80s South Coast to around 90 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog late. Humid. Lows 65-70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, locally gusty near storms.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers through midday then slow clearing west to east. Lowering humidity. Highs in the 70s. Wind mostly N to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 80.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 85.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. PM showers. Low 65. High 82.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers/thunderstorms. Low 65. High 80.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 67. High 82.

An Up To A Down

7:06AM

High pressure builds over the region today into Wednesday allowing more typical July warmth to invade the region, but only briefly, as a cold front will move into the region late Wednesday, putting an end to the short-lived warm spell by Thursday. But it does set us up for a nice Friday and Saturday before the next trough from the west brings shower threats Sunday into early next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Areas of fog especially coastal locations early morning otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 70s immediate coast and Cape Cod, 80s elsewhere. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but sea breezes near the coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to start but areas of low clouds and fog forming later. Lows 65-70. Wind light S to SW.

WEDNESDAY: Areas of low clouds and fog to start, then mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms may arrive in areas well north and west of Boston by late day. Highs 75-80 Cape Cod and some coastal areas, 80s to around 90 elsewhere. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers AM. Clearing PM. Low 62. High 77.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 80.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 85.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM showers. Low 65. High 80.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 65. High 80.

The Week Ahead

6:30PM

Just beyond the mid point of July, it really is still early Summer, and we’ve had some very  nice weekends so far this season. This particular weekend may not have been as nice as many of the others but it wasn’t terrible either. But now it’s time to look ahead to the coming week!

On Monday we will find ourselves under the influence of a building high pressure ridge aloft but still low pressure on an old frontal boundary east of the region over the ocean. This means fair weather but air still modified by the cooler ocean. We get rid of that and get a land breeze going Tuesday and Wednesday, which will be much warmer days, almost hot! Almost… Well it may feel  hot to many because we have not had that many hot days so far this Summer.  Will anyone reach 90? If it is going to happen this most likely day is  Wednesday, which will have a moderate westerly wind ahead of an approaching cold front and high pressure aloft. This approaching front may set off isolated thunderstorms mainly well west and north of Boston late Wednesday with a better chance of more organized shower and thunderstorm activity holding off until late Wednesday night or Thursday, depending on the timing of the cold front. This front is expected to move along enough to allow fair weather and mild to warm, drier air to dominate the end of the week. Though it may not be completely cloud-free as some cooler air will be aloft and can initiate cloud development Friday and Saturday. A larger scale trough is expected to approach from the west and the weather may go downhill again before next weekend is over.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy South Coast / Cape Cod. Partly cloudy to mostly clear elsewhere. Lows 55-63, coolest interior valleys. Wind light NE to N.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 72-82 from coastal to inland areas. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to E.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63, again cooler interior valleys. Wind light E shifting to S.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Increasing humidity. Highs 75-80 South Coast / Cape Cod, 80s elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorm possible late day far NW of Boston, scattered showers/thunderstorms night. Breezy. Humid. Low 66. High 88.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Low 70. High 82.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Low 64. High 82.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 83.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late showers. Low 64. High 80.

Light Filter

10:25AM

High pressure will hold rain off this weekend, but will have a tougher battle keeping cloudiness away. Lots of high-level cloudiness will dominate today, filtering and dimming the sun. It will shine a little brighter at times as clouds are periodically thinning out as they battle high pressure and drier air from the north. Clouds will win the battle a bit more tonight into Sunday, becoming thicker, with more limited sun on Sunday morning into afternoon. The end of Sunday may turn out more like today as cloudiness starts to thin out again. At this time an area of rain from a developing low pressure are to the south is expected to stay just offshore of Cape Cod. With high pressure to the north and developing low pressure to the south, the air flow will be easterly, which will keep coastal areas the coolest, but also preventing inland areas from getting too warm, though it will be comfortable.

High pressure takes over for the first part of next week with more sun and warmer to hotter air moving in. By Wednesday, an approaching front and low pressure trough may set off a few thunderstorms, with more activity likely by Thursday as the front moves through. This front may be slow to exit late next week so a low confidence forecast will have some lingering cloudiness and perhaps a shower in it for Friday, but this may change.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Lots of high cloudiness – filtered to dim sun. Highs 72-77 coast, 78-83 inland. Wind light SE to E.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Wind light E to variable.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with middle cloudiness hiding sun much of time but thinning out later for a little more sun at least interior MA and southern NH later in the day. Highs in the 70s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 82.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 66. High 88.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated PM t-storms. Low 69. High 89.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers/t-storms. Low 66. High 82.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 62. High 78.