Final Forecast Of Fourteen

3:51PM

2014 ends tonight. As 2015 gets underway and people ring in the New Year hopefully in their preferred way, inside or outside, one thing is for sure, it will be chilly outside around southeastern New England. Certainly far from the coldest New Year’s Eve we’ve had around these parts, but given the recent mild pattern, it will feel quite cold for anybody out there, so if you are going to be one of them, bundle up!

As expected, high pressure took control on Monday and continues to dominate the weather making it dry and somewhat colder than we have seen recently. This will continue through early Saturday but will then give way to a rapidly-approaching low pressure area from the southwest late Saturday. The timing of this system appears as if it will be similar to the thinking on the previous blog update, late Saturday through early or the mid part of Sunday, and the track is still expected to be one that takes a primary low pressure area into the Great Lakes but develops a secondary near southeastern New England. Though it will be cold enough for snow in many areas at the outset of this system, warmer air coming in both at the surface and aloft will change it to rain. We will have to watch for a brief period of icing especially inland as some cold air may be trapped at the surface there Saturday night and Sunday morning. At this time, we are still too far away from the event to have any real confidence on details of this, so this possibility will be revisited and fine-tuned. Once we get to late Sunday, low pressure will be heading away and being replaced by windy and colder conditions which will last through Monday. By Tuesday, a small but possibly vigorous low pressure area may sweep through the region from the Great Lakes, bringing the chance of snow or mixed precipitation, however this fast-moving system would not have enough time to produce any large snow amounts. Look for more cold and windy weather behind that system as we’re finally able to tap some of the cold air in Canada and drag it down here. This does not look like the start of a long-lasting cold snap, however.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Partly cloudy with temperatures falling slowly through the 20s during the evening to near 20 many areas and upper 10s inland valleys by midnight. Overnight lows 15-20. Wind light SW.
THURSDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow/mix arriving late day or night, changing to mix/rain overnight. Low 20. High 35.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with mix/rain morning. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with rain to snow showers afternoon. Low 30. High 45.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 35.
TUESDAY: Clouding up. PM snow or snow showers. Low 20. High 30.

Thank you all for reading and contributing during 2014 and previously as well! Looking forward to 2015! Have a safe and happy New Year!

From the WHW Crew (TK and a small supporting cast who prefer to remain nameless). πŸ™‚

Quick Update / New Year’s Eve & Day Forecast

7:27AM

This update only slows the timing of the unsettled weather system expected on the weekend, behind which a shot of windy and very cold air is expected. Up until the weekend, high pressure and chilly/dry weather will continue to dominate, including for First Night & New Year’s Day.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows middle 10s to around 20s. Wind light NW to W.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Mostly clear. Evening temps 20s. Overnight lows 15-20. Wind light W.
THURSDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 30s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Night snow to rain. Low 20. High 40.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain ending as mix/snow showers. Low 35. High 45.
MONDAY: Sun & clouds, windy. Low 15. High 30.

The Week Ahead

11:06PM

This look at the coming week is not really any different than the blog posted earlier on Sunday, other than dropping this Sunday’s forecast and adding next Sunday’s forecast. High pressure and a chill will be the rule during the next 5 days as 2014 winds up and 2015 gets underway. By the first weekend of the New Year, expect a storm to pass north of the region with a milder rain event arriving on Saturday and departing by early Sunday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows around 30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows around 15. Wind light NW.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 35. Wind light NW.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 30.
THURSDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 35.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 40.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Mix to rain. Low 30. High 50.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Early rain showers. Low 40. High 45.

Weekend Bookends

8:18AM

The 2 weekend days in this forecast (today and next Saturday) will be the mild and unsettled ones as a cold front slides through southern New England today and low pressure arrives from the southwest next Saturday, and the 5 days between (which include New Year’s Day) will be dry and colder as high pressure dominates and storminess stays to the south.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers this morning, ending west to east by midday. Highs around 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusting 20-25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows around 30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 35.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 30.
THURSDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 35.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 40.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Mix to rain. Low 30. High 50.

Last 5 Of ’14 / First 2 Of ’15

5:18PM

We’re in the stretch between Christmas and New Year’s now, and the originally advertised pattern change to cold never quite took place, for reasons talked about previously. But what is really coming up? Quiet weather for now as we head down the home stretch of 2014 and into the opening 2 days of 2015.

First, high pressure to the south of the region will provide a dry and mild Saturday, then a cold front will pass through southeastern New England on Sunday accompanied by cloudiness and a few rain showers as the air will still be mild. A wave forming on the front as it settles to the south will stay south of the region Monday but may throw some additional cloudiness across the sky especially in southern locations. Otherwise, the trend for the exit of 2014 and arrival of 2015 will be to colder and dry weather as a sprawling high pressure area dominates, originating in Canada which has gradually turned colder in the last week or so. The upper pattern will still not support a genuine plunge into Arctic cold, nor will it support any storminess reaching this area.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-30 inland valleys, 30-35 elsewhere. Wind light W to SW.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs around 50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 30s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs in the 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 40.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
WEDNESDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
THURSDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 30.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.

Weather Goes On Holiday Vacation

10:18AM

After a cold front sweeps offshore this Christmas morning putting an end to the wet weather and introducing a drier, gusty westerly wind and some sunshine for Christmas Day, the only other system likely to pass through here during the next several days is a cold front sometime on Sunday. By early next week as the final days of 2014 are here, a string of weak storms will likely be kept well to the south by a sprawling high pressure area. Though it will turn colder for early next week, there is no major cold air in sight as the current weather pattern does not allow a major push of it to advance this way from northern and central Canada.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY – CHRISTMAS: Rain ends Cape Cod by noon. Clouds give way to clearing west to east midday. Sunshine and passing clouds afternoon. Temperatures cooling through the 50s. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH, higher in some locations.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH, diminishing slowly.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-50. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 55.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 45.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

Keep Dreaming

8:24AM

If you were dreaming of a mild and wet Christmas, it will come true. If you were dreaming of a White Christmas around southeastern New England, keep dreaming. You’ll have to head into northern and far western New England to find residual snow on the ground from previous snow events. But this time around here, we have a mild rain event for the 2 days leading up to and including part of the holiday itself.

A well-advertised, but weaker-than-originally-hyped-to-be low pressure area will crank up and move through the Great Lakes into eastern Canada during the next few days. This system will first drag a warm front toward and eventually through southeastern New England with periods of rain and drizzle ahead of it in the relatively cool and damp air. Once that front goes by, it will introduce a moderate to strong southerly flow of unseasonably mild air with clusters of showers and even possible thunderstorms within that warm sector for much of Christmas Eve day into night as well. The cold front associated with this storm system will push eastward across the region on Christmas Day, eventually putting an end to the wet weather as a drying westerly wind takes over, though it may not completely clear out until the night.

High pressure will slide eastward passing just south of New England Friday and Saturday. This will maintain milder than normal conditions with dry weather for these days. By Sunday, a cold front will cross the region from the west, and we’ll probably just see some rain showers ahead of and with the front and maybe a few snow showers behind it as a shot of colder air arrives later Sunday and then lasts through Monday of next week, which should be a dry day.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY AND TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of fog and drizzle. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind light E.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT – CHRISTMAS EVE: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers day. Scattered to numerous rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms at night. Temperatures rising from the 40s through the 50s during the day to a nighttime high of 58-65. Wind shifting to S and increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Cloudy morning with rain showers likely, but ending from west to east midday. Mostly cloudy afternoon but clearing line approaching from west with sun possible especially Boston area westward before sunset. Temperatures falling through the 50s. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 55.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain showers morning and a few snow showers late day. Low 35. High 45.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 40.

The Week Ahead / Christmas Forecast

6:59PM

The atmosphere made a feeble attempt to deliver a set-up for a white Christmas, with some ocean effect snow mainly south of Boston and some scattered light snow around southeastern New England as a disturbance at upper levels passed through from southwest to northeast. But that’s about it for snow chances. And with milder to warmer air arriving in time for Christmas, the chances of a white Christmas drop to nil. Maybe next year! So exactly what is coming up during the week ahead? Read on…

Monday / Tuesday … Air flow shifts slowly from northerly to easterly as high pressure tries to hold on north of New England and low pressure tries to approach from the south but weakens and washes out. Cloudiness will dominate and there may be spotty light snow Monday and scattered light rain Tuesday as the atmosphere warms slightly.

Wednesday / Thursday (Christmas Eve / Christmas Day) … Here it comes! The storm of the century! Right? Wrong. Low pressure will crank up in the Midwest during this time, and will send a warm front northward through southern New England Wednesday, preceded by some light rain, drizzle, and fog. As long as the warm front pushes right through, a stronger southerly wind flow will then develop along with areas of rain showers. We cannot even rule out breaks in the clouds and some sun between the warm front and approaching cold front. That cold front will approach later at night into the early hours of Christmas Day with showers likely and even the chance of thunderstorms, somewhat unusual for late December. During Christmas Day itself, the front will push offshore but slowly enough that moisture still still be moving up along and behind it with additional rain showers. Behind this front, the push of cooler air is fairly weak, but a gusty west wind and a cool-down and dry-out is likely by later Christmas Day and Christmas Night.

Friday / Saturday … Southwesterly flow aloft, westerly flow at the surface, high pressure passing to the south. That is a dry and milder than average set up for late week.

Sunday … Early call would be for a cold front to sweep through from the west with a colder air mass arriving. We’ll also have to watch for a potential low pressure wave from the southern branch of the jet stream moving out south of the region but it is uncertain if that will form and affect the region.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Spotty snow flurries with no accumulation, but a few bands of briefly light to moderate snow showers South Shore of MA with minor additional accumulation. Lows 25-33. Wind light NE.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Spotty snow flurries. Highs 33-40. Wind light N.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle and fog. Temperatures steady 33-40. Wind light NE.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Chance of light rain. Highs 38-45. Wind light E.
WEDNESDAY – CHRISTMAS EVE: Morning – cloudy with drizzle and fog and a chance of rain. Afternoon – mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Evening – cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Night – rain showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. Low 45. High 60.
THURSDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers diminishing west to east. Low 50. High 55.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 48.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 54.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain to snow showers. Temperatures falling 40s to 30s.

Sunday Morning Update

7:45AM

So far, snow showers have been confined mainly to an area just inland and south of Boston with South Weymouth MA topping 2 inches, slightly less in nearby areas, and mix/rain showers from the immediate shoreline through Cape Cod, with lighter snow showers back into parts of RI. Very little has taken place from Boston northward. With cold air remaining in place and an onshore flow continuing, will keep the threat of snow and rain showers going though lessening somewhat into Monday, then more of a drizzle and fog threat by Tuesday as low level moisture increases and air warms aloft and slightly at the surface. Still looking for a weakening low to make an attempt to pass southeast of the region Tuesday but losing its identity as it does so. As low pressure develops and intensifies while moving through the Great Lakes and into Ontario on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day we will see the passage of a warm front on the eve bringing some rain/fog/drizzle for part of Christmas Eve and a band of rain showers and possible thunderstorms in the early hours of Christmas Day as a cold front swings through from the west. In between the two fronts a significant spike in temperature may take place. There is not all that much cold air available to be pulled in behind the cold front so expect a modest cool-down but a chilly-feeling breeze arriving by later Christmas Day after a wet start as rain showers linger. We should see a colder trend but not a plunge into really cold air late in the week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy though some breaks of sun may develop later in the day especially well inland. Areas of snow showers initially mainly south of Boston except rain showers around Cape Cod, then a chance of snow showers in northeastern MA and southeastern NH with only minor accumulation possible. Highs in the 30s, around 40 Cape Cod. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers except mix/rain showers Cape Cod. Lows 25-30 interior areas, 30-35 coastal areas. Wind light NE.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers except rain showers Cape Cod. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle/fog. Low 35. High 45.
WEDNESDAY – CHRISTMAS EVE: Cloudy with a chance of rain/drizzle/fog morning. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny afternoon. Mostly cloudy with rain showers and possible thunderstorms at night. Low 45. High 60.
THURSDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely especially morning. Low 50. High 55.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 45.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 45.

Snowcean

9:16AM

The weekend will feature some ocean-effect and briefly upper-level-disturbance-enhanced snowfall for parts of southeastern New England, as high pressure to the north provides a northeasterly air flow. The greatest likelihood for snow that will accumulate will be in coastal areas of eastern MA especially Boston northward, and just inland over all of eastern MA to northern RI. Less likely but still possible are some minor accumulations elsewhere. No accumulation is expected on Cape Cod and the Islands where it will be too mild to support snow for most of the event. Elsewhere, expect a coating to 1 inch of snow, but areas of 1-3 inches especially just inland from the coast and over elevated locations especially southwest of Boston It is not out of the question that a few small bands of greater than 3-inch accumulation could occur due to the combination of ocean enhancement and energy passing through in upper levels. Southern NH will have less activity and therefore only scattered coatings of snow.

Early next week, an onshore flow will continue. Enough dry air may work in for some sunshine Monday, but clouds should dominate again Tuesday as a weakening low pressure area passes south of the region.

A deep trough swinging through the Midwest and Great Lakes will develop a large storm system there for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day (Wednesday-Thursday), sending a frontal system through New England. What is not immediately known is the timing of the front and heaviest rainfall. And it will be rain as the air will be far too mild to support snow. There may also be some strong, gusty winds. An early estimate is that most of the rain may come through in the late night hours of Christmas Eve to early hours of Christmas Day, with a drying trend during the holiday itself.

By the end of next week it will trend somewhat colder along with mostly dry weather on Friday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Low clouds increase across most of eastern MA through RI with occasional snow showers developing, except snow to rain showers Cape Cod & Islands. Partly sunny north central MA into southern NH though clouds and a few snow showers will eventually take over near the NH Seacoast. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Occasional to frequent snow showers, especially eastern MA into RI, but rain showers Cape Cod. Lows upper 20s to lower 30s except near 35 Cape Cod. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Frequent to occasional snow showers, especially morning and midday. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 40.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 42.
WEDNESDAY – CHRISTMAS EVE: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Risk of showers day. Period of rain night. Low 35. High 48.
THURSDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy. Risk of rain showers early. Low 38. High 45.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 35.