Weekend Update

8:16PM

SUMMARY…
High pressure overhead with clear sky, calm wind, and deep snowcover tonight – perfect radiational cooling. There will be some low temperatures well below zero, but most areas will be above, just very cold. This low launching pad for Sunday means it struggles back to the 20s as clouds increase ahead of the next storm system, which will occur Sunday night in the form of snow for all areas except for the possibility of some mixed precipitation over the outer part of Cape Cod and over the islands of Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard. It looks like this system will drop a general 3 to 6 inches of snow across most areas, but there may be a little less than 3 inches in portions of north central MA and southern NH due to less overall precipitation, and less than 3 inches in areas where mixing occurs. There may also be a few areas that receive over 6 inches not far inland from the South Coast in south central RI and southeastern MA. Once this system exits early Monday, that day will turn out breezy, chilly, and drier with sun returning. Another cold night Monday night as high pressure moves overhead, but not as cold as tonight. Tuesday, sun will be followed by clouds as the next storm system approaches, but this one is destined to take a track northwest of New England, putting this region on the “mild” side. Remember that a deep snowcover in place will make it difficult for many areas to warm up, so freezing rain will be a possibility for some areas, along with rain where it warms sufficiently, after all areas start as snow. It is entirely possible that Boston breaks its all-time seasonal snowfall record of 107.6 inches set in 1995-1996 after the next 2 storms. After the midweek storm the confidence is a little lower late in the week as there will be some lingering moisture to the southeast and a few more disturbances in the northern jet stream, so timing and possible interaction are difficult to determine this far in advance. Will make an attempt to do this with a little more confidence on the next update.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows from -15 interior valleys to +10 Cape Cod. Wind calm.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs in the 20s. Wind light SE.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow. See above for accumulations. Temperatures steady in the 20s but may rise to 30-35 Outer Cape Cod and Islands. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH shifting to N then NE overnight.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy early, then sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 35-40. Wind W 15-25 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Snow to mix at night. Lows 15-20. Highs 30-35.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy morning with rain but possible ice inland. Mostly cloudy afternoon with rain showers. Lows 30-35. Highs 35-40 late day inland, 40s coast.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or mix Cape Cod. Lows 30-35. Highs 35-40.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 25-30. Highs 30-35.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 20-25. Highs 35-40.

Quiet February Finish

3:30AM

SUMMARY…
High pressure builds in today and Saturday and brings fair and cold weather to southeastern New England. This high will slip offshore by Sunday and a cold front will approach then pass through the region at night, with a wave of low pressure developing along it. This will bring a period of snow Sunday night and early Monday with some accumulation. High pressure returns later Monday into Tuesday with dry weather, but as things move along rather swiftly, the next system will arrive Tuesday night as snow and may become a mix or rain, depending on its track, before winding down later Wednesday. Dry weather is expected to return by Thursday of next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows -10 to 10, coldest interior valleys. Wind light NW.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow at night. Low 15. High 35.
MONDAY: Early snow followed by clearing. Low 25. High 35.
TUESDAY: Sunshine followed by clouds. Snow to mix at night. Low 15. High 35.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Morning rain/mix. Afternoon rain showers. Low 35. High 40.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 35.

From No Threat To Snow Threat

5:36PM

SUMMARY…
Before you panic, it’s not a big threat. But it should come as no surprise that a storm that looked as if it would pass harmlessly out to sea is going to be close enough to spread some snow into parts of southeastern New England. This will happen Thursday, but it’s not going to be all that much, and will not be a long-lasting event either. It will be a low pressure area passing southeast of the region that causes this. The storm’s moisture shield and some added ocean enhancement will combine to bring a light snowfall from about Boston to Cape Cod. See below for accumulations. This event is history by late Thursday night and high pressure builds in for Friday and Saturday with fair but cold weather. This is how February will end. March arrives Sunday and it will be a month that will at least start out with a colder than average and somewhat stormy weather pattern. Not looking for a repeat of the sledge hammer snow barrage of February, but there will be some threats of snow, getting Boston very close to if not into record territory for seasonal snowfall. The first system will arrive Sunday night into Monday. The system behind that one is due by Wednesday of next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows around 10-15, some colder spots interior valleys. Wind light N.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. A period of snow mainly from the I-95 belt southeastward with a coating to 1 inch accumulation except 1 to 3 inches from Plymouth County MA through Cape Cod. Highs 20-25. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Slow clearing. Lows 0-5 inland valleys, 5-10 elsewhere except 10-15 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 20-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 25.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Low 10. High 30.
MONDAY: Cloudy with snow early, then clearing. Low 20. High 30.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 30.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow or mix possible. Low 20. High 40.

Quick Update Again

7:21AM

SUMMARY…
Eastern and southeastern areas were clipped by snow overnight. A sharp cut-off on the western edge left most areas west of I-95 out of the snow except some areas to the south. It’s all out to sea now and today will be a less cold day than yesterday along with dry weather but a gusty breeze. An offshore storm will toss some of its clouds over the region Thursday and also turn the wind a bit more to the northeast near the shore where a few snow showers may occur, especially Cape Cod. High pressure builds in Friday and Saturday with fair but cold weather. As March begins, so will a train of potential storm systems, the first late Sunday and early Monday with some kind of combination of precipitation. The next one may approach by late Tuesday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 30-35. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 10-15 inland, 15-20 coast. Wind light NW.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers possible Cape Cod. Highs in the 20s. Wind NNE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 20.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 25.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. PM snow or mix. Low 20. High 35.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM mix. Low 30. High 40.
TUESDAY: Sun to clouds. Night mix. Low 25. High 35.

Quick Update

7:26AM

SUMMARY…
Arctic high pressure today. Low pressure offshore passes close enough for some snow tonight but exits Wednesday. More cold air but dry weather the last few days of February. March begins slightly milder but turns unsettled..

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouding up. Snow of 1-3 inches except 3-5 inches immediate coast and Cape Cod overnight. Lows 10-15. Wind variable becoming N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Lingering snow showers Cape Cod. Highs in the 20s. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 10. Highs around 25.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Lows around 15. Highs around 30.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows around 20. Highs around 40.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/mix/rain showers. Lows around 30. Highs around 40.

The Week Ahead

8:20PM

COMMENTARY…
Not too often a day in the upper 30s to lower 40s following snow and rain would be considered a “really nice day” but many probably thought that of Sunday, the first day that Boston was above freezing most of the day in a very long while. The day allowed for being outside without being bundled in layers. The shoveling of snow was more of the clean up and catch up variety versus just trying to stay ahead of a storm during near-blizzard conditions. Granted, there are many people with ice dam problems but at least today afforded the opportunity for some people to work on clearing those, or at least lessening their impact. We have quite a way to go still to finish recovering from the 4-week barrage that we’ve been enduring, but Sunday, though maybe not a “day of rest”, was a nice break.

SUMMARY…
The mild air’s brief visit will end in the early hours of Monday as an Arctic cold front sweeps through the region from west to east. Though the front may be accompanied by a few isolated snow showers, the main impact will be tumbling temperatures during Monday and Monday night. The deep freeze will last through Tuesday as well. A clipper low pressure system will dive southeastward out of Canada, across the Great Lakes, and then move eastward through New England by early Wednesday. Developing low pressure offshore should stay just too far east to impact the region, other than perhaps clipping Cape Cod with some snow/mix. Elsewhere, just a few snow showers are expected early Wednesday. This will bring in a reinforcing shot of cold for the last 3 days of February, though the magnitude of the cold will not be as great as what will be experienced early this week. A look ahead to the first day of March next Sunday shows clouds rolling in and moderating temperatures ahead of the next weather system. The pattern remains active but will be a little less volatile.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated snow showers after midnight. Lows 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 20-25 morning then falling through 10s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH. Wind chill falling below 0 at times during the afternoon.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -15 to -10 inland valleys, -10 to -5 other inland areas, -5 to 0 coastal locations and urban centers except 0-5 Cape Cod and Islands. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, but not as strong in valley locations. Wind chill often well below 0.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 20-25. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy AM with a chance of snow showers all areas and possibly a period of steady snow/mix Cape Cod. Partly cloudy PM. Low 20. High 35.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 10. High 25.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 10. High 25.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 30.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 20. High 40.

Weekend Update

8:24AM

SUMMARY…
The latest event will be winding down this morning, and this one let most of us off quite easy with snowfall amounts coming in from below the predicted range to the lower end of the predicted range for most areas. The area not let off so easily is southeastern MA because of milder air being stronger there and resulting in moderate amounts of rain falling upon a heavy snow pack. This increases stress on roofs and increases the chance of future flooding. Moving forward, a short synopsis of what goes on during the final 7 days of February. Weekend system slowly exits today with lingering rain to mix southeastern MA and a little light snow to the northwest with only minor additional accumulation during this morning, then breaking clouds this afternoon. It will feel quite mild with high temperatures above freezing in many areas. But that is only a brief reprieve as an Arctic cold front will race west to east across southern New England Monday morning and return the region to the deep freeze through Tuesday. A low pressure system moving through courtesy the northern jet stream will bring snow showers Wednesday. A southern jet stream storm system will get going offshore but the two will not interact until they are well beyond this area, sparing the region another significant snowstorm. Cold air is reinforced for later in the week, but probably not as cold as the shot that starts the week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Cloudy with spotty snow northeastern to central MA, rain to mix elsewhere, ending by midday. Breaking clouds and partial sun this afternoon. Highs in the 30s, some lower 40s southeastern MA/RI. Wind W up to 10 MPH, few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy with a slight risk of a passing snow shower. Lows around 20. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW by dawn.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Temperatures steady around 20 through midday then falling through the 10s. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill falling toward 0.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 0. High 20.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow showers. Low 10. High 30.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 10. High 25.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 25.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 10. High 30.

Weekend Outlook

7:37PM

SUMMARY…
This update focuses on the weekend event, which is pretty much looking the same to me as it has all along. After a very cold overnight, clouds roll in by early Saturday and snow approaches and overspreads the region by mid to late afternoon and continues into the evening. All the while it will be trying to warm up from the south, but the wedge of cold air will hold strong near the ground while it warms a little more easily aloft. This means that the snow will transition to sleet and rain across the South Coast of RI and into southeastern MA, with freezing rain actually more likely in all but immediate coastal areas. Where it stays all snow, a moderate accumulation is expected. Lesser accumulation is expected in the mix/change area, with least toward the South Coast where the snow will last less time and the chance of plain rain is highest. The mix/change will be mainly a Saturday night and Sunday morning occurrence before the entire system exits from west to east later Sunday, opening the door for another blast of Arctic air with dry weather for Monday and Tuesday. Also continuing to monitor the possibility of a storm nearby on Wednesday, and this is still possible, though current indications point more to a northern stream system passing through with snow showers and not really phasing up with southern stream energy off the coast. Jury is still out on what may take place here. By late in the week, it’s dry and cold again.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows -10 to +10 from south central NH to Cape Cod, colder in some valleys. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow developing west to east afternoon. Highs in the 20s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH shifting to SE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow of 3-6 inches northwest of a line from northern Plymouth County MA to Providence RI, and 1-3 inches elsewhere except less than 1 inch Cape Cod and Islands, changing to sleet and freezing rain South Coast eventually into more of RI and southeastern MA, northwestward into the Boston area by dawn. Temperatures steady in the 20s but rising to the lower 30s South Coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy through midday with snow/sleet well northwest of Boston, snow to sleet and freezing rain Boston to Providence, plain rain immediate South Coast. Precipitation ending west to east early afternoon with breaking clouds. Highs from near 30 northwest of Boston to 40-45 immediate South Coast. Wind SE under 10 MPH except SW to W 5-15 MPH near the South Coast, then shifting to NW all areas and increasing to 15-25 MPH during the afternoon.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 5. High 25.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 25.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 15. High 30.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 25.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 20.

Heard It All Before

10:25PM

SUMMARY…
Frigid Friday, check.
Saturday snow, check.
Sunday mix, check.
Early week cold, check.
Watching midweek storm, check.
Basically no changes to the previous blog discussion.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows -5 to +10, coldest northwest interior MA and southern NH, mildest Cape Cod. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill -5 to -20.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 10-15 interior MA and southern NH, 15-20 elsewhere. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty. wind chill near to below 0.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows -5 to +10 from south central NH to Cape Cod. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow developing west to east afternoon. Highs in the 20s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow of light to moderate accumulation, changing to sleet and freezing rain South Coast. Temperatures steady in the 20s. Wind light NE.
SUNDAY: Cloudy through midday with snow/sleet well northwest of Boston, snow to sleet and freezing rain Boston to Providence, sleet and rain South Coast. Precipitation ending west to east early afternoon with breaking clouds. Highs from near 30 northwest of Boston to 40-45 immediate South Coast. Wind NE under 10 MPH except SW to W 5-15 MPH near the South Coast, then shifting to NW all areas and increasing to 15-25 MPH during the afternoon.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 5. High 25.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 25.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 25.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 15. High 30.

Oh Low!

9:02PM

SUMMARY…
Norluns, low pressure centers, upper troughs. It’s all about low pressure areas through Thursday, basically as described in the previous blog with the inverted trough lifting from northeastern MA through eastern NH into southern Maine as broad upper low pressure crosses the region through Thursday and ignites another surface low just east of New England by early Thursday which then move northward. After the snow showers occur as expected, we’ll get a blast of Arctic air with wind Thursday night and Friday. We’re still watching the next storm system for the weekend, the track of which is in question, and as a result so is the amount of milder air that gets involved. Been leaning toward the colder solution for this event Saturday night and Sunday because of the weakness of the expected low and the tremendous cold snowpack in place. We may see warm enough air come in aloft to result in sleet and freezing rain, and even plain rain in some areas by Sunday as it does turn somewhat milder, but this will be a tricky forecast right up until the event occurs. Dry and cold weather is expected to return Monday and last through Tuesday. An offshore storm will threaten the region with some snow next Wednesday but it is, of course, too far away to figure any details with that threat.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers, most numerous in Essex County MA northward. Accumulation of 1 to 3 inches Essex County MA into NH, less than 1 inch most other areas. Lows in the 10s. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow showers in the morning. Additional accumulation of up to 1 inch. Partly sunny with isolated snow showers in the afternoon. Highs 25-30 by midday, falling back through the 20s in the afternoon. Wind NW increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 0. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill well below 0.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs around 15. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill near to below 0.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow at night. Low 5. High 25.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Snow/sleet/ice/rain. Low 20. High 30 north to 40 far south.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 5. High 25.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 25.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 25.