Still A Chill

12:16AM

SUMMARY…
Another chilly day coming up Tuesday as we say goodbye to the month of March. A small clipper low pressure system will pass south of southern New England at night, tossing some high cloudiness into the region, but this cloudiness may be a little thicker near the South Coast. There is a slight chance that a little snow/mix may occur in this area. Regardless, that’s out of here by Wednesday morning and a small area of high pressure will provide nice weather for the first of April. But systems are moving right along and low pressure will be approaching from the west Thursday, with its warm front spreading cloudiness into southern New England, followed by a chance of rain late in the day and at night. On Friday we’ll end up in the mild air as that warm front lifts to the north of the region and a cold front approaches from the west. This will trigger rain showers later Friday and especially Friday night, based on current timing. As we get to the weekend, colder air will return. There is some question of whether or not a low pressure system will form on the cold front as it gets just southeast of the region. If this happens, some rain or snow may occur early Saturday. Later Saturday expect increasing wind as a new cold air mass arrives. This cold air will be around for Easter Sunday. A weak disturbance may result in a few passing snow showers on that day. By Monday of next week, warmer air will be approaching again from the southwest and this will send cloudiness back into the region and some chance of wet weather returning.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Lows 20s inland valleys, lower 30s elsewhere. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Sunshine, filtered at times by high clouds especially in the afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy South Coast with some light snow/mix. Partly cloudy elsewhere. Lows in the 20s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind N 5-15 MPH becoming variable.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Late rain. Low 25. High 45.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain showers. Low 40. High 60.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM snow/mix. Low 35. High 45.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated snow showers. Low 25. High 40.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Late rain. Low 25. High 45.

The Week Ahead

10:11PM

SUMMARY…
As we transition from March to April this week, we won’t see any major changes to the overall pattern. Though there is a shot of mild air in the forecast later in the week, the overall pattern is still cool and somewhat active. We start out with low pressure passing north of southern New England Monday bringing the threat of some light precipitation – maybe a touch of very light snow early and a few rain showers later. It now appears that the threat of snow in southern areas for late Tuesday is minimal as a follow up system should remain very weak and pass to the south of southern New England. A small area of high pressure will bring fair weather for the first day of April on Wednesday. It still looks like another low pressure area will take a track northwest of the region late Thursday and Friday. A sluggish warm front will move through later Thursday bringing the threat of some rain. We should bust into the warm sector of this system for a time on Friday which will likely be the mildest day of the week, but also holding the chance for rain showers at some point as a cold front approaches then crosses the region. The details of how warm and sky condition / shower threat will not be known until the timing of the system is more certain. An early look at the weekend indicates some unsettled weather Saturday as upper level low pressure crosses the region and the recently-passed cold front will be just offshore with a potential wave of low pressure on it. For now, going to go for Sunday (Easter for those celebrating it) to be a chilly day with a threat of a few passing snow showers from a disturbance, but again timing is very suspect this far in advance and therefore forecast confidence is low.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 20s. Wind light S.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of very light snow/mix morning. Chance of rain showers afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 50.
THURSDAY: Clouding up. Late-day rain. Low 35. High 45.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day rain showers. Low 40. High 60.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Early light snow/mix. Low 35. High 45.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 40.

Sunday Morning Update

8:00AM

SUMMARY…
Quick update now with full discussion later. High pressure & sunshine today, but chilly. Low pressure passes north of the region Monday, early-day warm front may cause a few flakes of snow, late-day cold front will bring scattered rain showers. Low pressure exits to northeast early Tuesday with a northwest flow pushing some cold air back in. Another low passes to south Tuesday night and may bring some snow to parts of southern New England (better chance south, less chance north), but is gone by Wednesday which turns out nicer. Larger low pressure area passes northwest of the region late Thursday through Friday, warm front Thursday returns clouds and an eventual rain threat, cold front later Friday with rain showers but milder before it. The chill returns by next Saturday behind that departing low.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs around 40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear evening. Clouding up west to east overnight. Lows around 30. Wind light S.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Slight chance of very light snow early. Scattered rain showers midday and afternoon. Highs around 45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow at night, especially southern areas. Low 25. High 40.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 50.
THURSDAY: Clouding over. Late-day rain. Low 30. High 45.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day rain showers. Low 40. High 55.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM light snow showers. PM light rain showers. Low 30. High 45.

Saturday Snow, Sunday Sun

11:47AM

SUMMARY…
Focusing on the weekend for this update, as this is where I have the most confidence. An inverted trough extending northwestward from an offshore storm will focus moisture with enough cold air in place for snow today. Where it started as rain south of Boston it will transition to snow there by afternoon. Minor accumulations are expected (generally under 3 inches) especially on unpaved surfaces, through early evening before it exits north to south tonight. By Sunday, any early clouds will depart and we’ll be left with sunshine but a chill in the air (though the sun itself will feel warmer) as a small area of high pressure moves in. Looking ahead, a couple of systems will pass through the region as March ends, bringing lots of clouds and a few rain/snow showers Monday and Tuesday. April should begin fairly nice on Wednesday between systems. But another low pressure area will approach Thursday with clouds returning and eventual wet weather, this time mild enough for rain. With much less confidence in timing and details I do think we’ll see variable temperatures and unsettled weather heading through Friday and Saturday, probably mild Friday and colder Saturday. I’ll give that period my best shot for now and fine tune later.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
THIS AFTERNOON: Overcast with snow of varying intensity, some rain/snow mix early South Coast then snow. Temperatures steady in the 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THIS EVENING: Cloudy with snow continuing early then tapering off north to south. Accumulation of 1/2 to 2 inches most areas, locally over 2 inches possible, mainly on unpaved surfaces. Temperatures fall to around 30. Wind N 5-15 MPH and gusty.
OVERNIGHT: Clearing north to south. Lows in the 20s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of very light snow early then chance of late day rain showers. Low 30. High 45.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 40.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 50.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. PM rain. Low 35. High 45.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 55.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Low 35. High 45.

Cold & Wet Pattern For A While

12:47AM

SUMMARY…
Briefly milder air that was only of limited enjoyability due to wet weather Thursday will be replaced by colder weather in the days ahead. It won’t be continuously cold, but temperatures during the next 1 to 2 weeks will continue to run below normal in southeastern New England, and after some recent dry weather, we’re turning to a wetter than average pattern, which will include some potential Spring snow. A couple of these threats exist during the next 7 days. First, as milder air is gradually replaced by colder air during Friday, areas of rain may mix with sleet. But Saturday, an inverted trough and even colder air spells a chance of snow. Not a big storm, but some accumulation is possible especially on unpaved surfaces. By Sunday, drier air will work down from the north, and though cool, it will likely be a bright day. Another low pressure system will approach early next week as March ends. This system will depart heading into the first day of April next Wednesday, based on current timing, but another system will likely be right on its heels as the active pattern is firmly established.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers, most numerous across southeastern MA with a chance of thunder, and another area northwest of Boston diminishing toward dawn. Areas of fog and drizzle. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Occasional rain showers possibly mixed with sleet. Temperatures falling from the 40s to the upper 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers evening. Chance of snow showers overnight. Temperatures fall to the lower 30s. Wind N to NNE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of snow with some accumulation likely on unpaved surfaces. Temperatures in the 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 22. High 44.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 33. High 45.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 29. High 40.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 49.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. PM rain/mix. Low 29. High 44.

March Moods

7:28AM

SUMMARY…
You’ll see several sides of March during the next 6 days. Mild air flows into southeastern New England today as a warm front lifts north of the region and a cold front approaches from the west, but don’t expected a sunny Spring day. Clouds will dominate along with patches of drizzle and a few showers, then more numerous showers and possible thunderstorms will arrive during the afternoon and into tonight. After the cold front gets through the region it will slow down offshore and upper level low pressure hanging around will keep clouds dominant Friday, with rain showers as the colder air is slow to arrive, then with snow showers Saturday as the colder air indeed arrives. Sunday also looks chilly but brighter as high pressure moves in. That high will be around for a short stay as another low pressure area approaches Monday with a return to clouds and the threat of some rain showers as it turns less cold. But another shot of cold is likely to arrive Tuesday on the back side of the departing low pressure area. March exits and April arrives as Tuesday becomes Wednesday next week, and looking ahead we may have a nice day to welcome the new month. But if we know anything about April in this part of the country, don’t get used to nice weather because pockets of cold air aloft that often traverse the region, and a cold ocean sitting next to us often have other things to say about the weather.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle into mid morning. Isolated rain showers through early afternoon. Numerous rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms mid afternoon on. Highs in the 40s South Coast, 50s elsewhere. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous rain showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the 40s. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers, especially in the morning. Highs around 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 28. High 38.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 42.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 32. High 46.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 28. High 43.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 53.

Quick Update

7:37AM

SUMMARY…
No major changes to the discussion on the previous post. Full discussion on next update.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Chance of light rain north and west of Boston late. Highs 40-45 South Coast, 45-50 elsewhere. Wind light W shifting to S.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain. Lows 35-40 early then rising. Wind light SE shifting to SW late.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers morning. Scattered to numerous rain showers afternoon. Highs in the 50s except 40s South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Rain showers early. Low 45. High 50.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 40.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 45.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix showers. Low 25. High 35.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow/rain/showers. Low 30. High 45.

Cold Ease

11:24PM

SUMMARY…
Cold high pressure will remain in control through Wednesday morning. As it moves offshore you will notice an easing of the cold during the day Wednesday, but clouds will start to roll in ahead of a warm front as even warmer air comes in, first aloft, and then at the surface by early Thursday. This transition may result in some areas of rain, especially northwest of Boston, late Wednesday to the early hours of Thursday. During the day Thursday, a stronger southerly flow will dominate but with lots of clouds and a threat of rain showers in the region between the warm front and an approaching cold front from the west. This front will bring an area of rain showers in during the afternoon and evening, marking an end to the brief warm-up. But as the system exits early Friday, cold air will be slow to arrive at first, so Friday itself will not be too chilly. A more significant chill will return for the weekend, though not to the degree of the current cold. At this time it appears the weekend will be mainly dry with the front far enough offshore to keep additional unsettled weather away. By Monday, a new low pressure area from the west will bring a chance of rain or snow showers.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-10 inland valleys, 10s elsewhere. Wind light NW.
TUESDAY: Sunny except some passing ocean clouds southeastern MA at times. Highs 35-42, coolest in coastal areas. Wind light N to NE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 10s. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Chance of light rain north and west of Boston late. Highs around 50 inland, 40s coast. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers becoming more numerous west to east late. Lows 40-45. Highs 45-50 South Coast, 50s elsewhere.
FRIDAY: Clearing. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 30. Highs around 40.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

The Week Ahead

9:54PM

SUMMARY…
This coming week, the last full week of March and the first full week of Spring, will feature weather fairly typical of March as far as variability goes, but will start out with weather that feels a little more like the middle of Winter, as Arctic high pressure controls the weather Monday and Tuesday. This high slips off to the east by Wednesday and after 2 sunny days to start the week we’ll see some clouds arrive during the day as milder air moves in. A warm front will send most of its moisture northwest of the region but some light rain cannot be ruled out by Wednesday night, especially north and west of Boston. On Thursday, a stronger south to southwest flow will usher in some very mild air in comparison to what we have seen recently. But this will come with a lot of cloudiness and an increasing threat of rain showers as a cold front approaches from the west. This front will push through Thursday night, when most of the wet weather will occur. The end of the week and next weekend holds some uncertainty. For now, I’m going to go with the scenario of the front pushing offshore Friday but staying not that far away, so that a wave of low pressure may bring some unsettled weather into the region for Friday night and Saturday. This would be followed by a further eastward push of the front as high pressure noses in on Sunday, bringing dry but cool weather. The end of the week is low confidence and subject to much adjustment.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Clear. Lows from near 10 outlying areas northwest of Boston to near 20 Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-10 inland valleys, 10-15 most areas except 15-20 urban centers and coast. Wind light W to NW.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-40, some lower 40s interior southeastern MA. Wind light NW to N.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain at night. Low 15. High 45.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain showers. Low 40. High 55.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain/mix at night. Low 35. High 45.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix. Low 35. High 40.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 45.

Weekend Update

1:13PM

SUMMARY…
Spring was ushered in by a snow event across much of southern New England. Nothing unusual about that as it has happened many times. The weak disturbance that prolonged the snow into midday Saturday as now exiting and a little sun may pop out for a while across some areas. But this won’t last too long as a trough and cold front will swing through this evening with a few rain showers, then a few snow showers, and a sharp temperature drop. Late-season Arctic air will move in overnight and Sunday and remain in place through Monday, though those 2 days will be bright and dry. After a very cold start to Tuesday as high pressure is overhead, the strong sun and a return southwest flow on the back side of high pressure moving away will allow temperatures to start a moderation. This will also continue into midweek but that period of time will not be as sunny as we’ll have a warm front scoot across the region Wednesday followed by a cold front later Thursday. The timing of this front will determine how warm we get here on Thursday, so there is some uncertainty in that part of the forecast. Further uncertainty exists for the end of the week as there may be storm development on the lingering cold front as it slows down offshore.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Snow showers depart coastal areas early, clouds break for periods of sun, then clouds return by very late from the west with a few rain showers reaching areas west of Boston by then. Highs around 40. Wind light variable, then becoming SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY EVENING (THROUGH 9PM): Mostly cloudy. Rain showers push west to east. Temperatures hold near 40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT (9PM-MIDNIGHT): Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers from northwest to southeast. Temperatures fall to near 30. Wind W 5-15 MPH with stronger gusts.
SATURDAY OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Lows around 20. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs around 30. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Sunny. Low 15. High 35.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 40.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 45.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain showers. Low 40. High 55.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain or snow. Low 35. High 40.