7:42PM
The Winter Review
Here in Woburn, in the northwest suburbs of Boston, Winter got off to a slow start, snow-wise, though if you include November as part of your Winter season, it felt like Winter a little early as it was a chilly month. This was followed by a mild, wet, and nearly snowless December. Things changed again in January which was a cold and mainly dry month for its first 3 weeks with limited snow. Here in Woburn, through January 23, less than 10 inches of snow had fallen for the season-to-date, while Boston had seen 5.5 inches of snow. In a joking yet serious way, sometime in early or mid January I had noted on the blog that I felt most of the snow for the Winter would take place during the period January 24 through March 8. Of course at the time, I wasn’t expecting the pattern to change essentially ON January 24 (the first storm of what would become a seemingly endless barrage of storms that shattered several records). The dates were really picked as a rough boundary around what I thought would be a period of active storminess. I did not expect the extreme cold that ended up accompanying this very stormy period. Here we sit on March 1 now, the first day of Meteorological Spring, but still in Astronomical Winter and also still in a Winter weather pattern, a new snow event getting underway as of the writing of this blog. Will the pattern last until exactly March 8? Probably not exactly, but it is safe to say we are by the worst of the cold and frequent snow even though we are not quite clear of bouts of this kind of weather. More to come on this below. Before that we’ll look at the coming week, and before that still, I will end this section with a review of Meteorological Winter for some southern New England cities, prepared by the National Weather Service.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1253 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015
…WINTER 2014-2015 IN REVIEW…
ALL DATA PRESENTED HEREIN IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO REVISION.
ANY MONTHLY RECORDS FALLING WITHIN THE TOP TEN OF THE PERIOD OF
RECORD WILL BE ANNOTATED IN THE REMARKS SECTION IMMEDIATELY RIGHT.
BOSTON
…PERIOD OF RECORD: 1872 TO PRESENT…
AVG HIGH AVG LOW AVG MEAN PCPN SNOW REMARKS
——– ——- ——– —- —- ——-
DEC: 43.7 32.7 38.2 6.56 0.3
+2.5 +4.5 +3.5 +2.78 -8.7
JAN: 33.1 19.0 26.1 3.57 34.3 6TH SNOWIEST
-2.7 -3.2 -2.9 +0.21 +21.4
FEB: 27.8 10.1 19.0 3.37 64.8 2ND COLDEST
-10.9 -14.6 -12.7 +0.12 +53.9 ALL-TIME SNOWIEST
SEASONAL SUMMARY
——————
WINTER: 34.9 20.6 27.8 13.50 99.4 ALL-TIME SNOWIEST
-3.7 -4.5 -4.0 +3.11 +66.6
RECORDS
——-
12/09…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…2.90…PREVIOUSLY 1.29 IN 1956.
12/25…RECORD MAXIMUM LOW TEMPERATURE…44…PREVIOUSLY 43 IN 1888.
01/27…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…22.1…PREVIOUSLY 8.8 IN 2011.
02/02…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…16.2…PREVIOUSLY 11.1 IN 1974.
02/09…TIED RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…14.8…ALSO SET IN 2013.
02/15…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…13.0…PREVIOUSLY 11.0 IN 1940.
FEB…RECORD MONTHLY SNOWFALL…64.8…PREVIOUSLY 41.6 IN 2003.
WINTER…RECORD SEASONAL SNOWFALL…99.4…PREVIOUSLY 81.5 IN 1993-1994.
ALL-TIME…MONTHLY SNOWFALL…64.8…PREVIOUSLY 43.3 IN JANUARY 2005.
ALL-TIME…2ND COLDEST MONTHLY AVG…19.0…RECORD IS 17.5 – FEB 1934.
________________________________________________________________
HARTFORD
…PERIOD OF RECORD: 1905 TO PRESENT…
AVG HIGH AVG LOW AVG MEAN PCPN SNOW REMARKS
——– ——- ——– —- —- ——-
DEC: 42.0 29.3 35.7 4.55 0.7 9TH LEAST SNOWIEST
+2.3 +5.9 +4.1 +1.11 -6.7
JAN: 32.3 14.3 23.3 3.23 17.1
-2.2 -3.4 -2.8 0.00 +4.8
FEB: 27.2 4.9 16.1 2.95 31.9 ALL-TIME COLDEST
-11.3 -16.0 -13.6 +0.06 +20.9 3RD SNOWIEST
SEASONAL SUMMARY
——————
WINTER: 33.8 16.2 25.0 10.73 49.7
-3.7 -4.5 -4.1 +1.17 +19.0
RECORDS
——-
12/09…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…1.77…PREVIOUSLY 1.33 IN 1978.
12/25…RECORD MAXIMUM LOW TEMPERATURE…43…PREVIOUSLY 42 IN 1987.
01/18…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…1.32…PREVIOUSLY 0.99 IN 2006.
02/02…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…10.8…PREVIOUSLY 6.5 IN 1916.
02/06…RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE…-7…PREVIOUSLY -5 IN 1988/1910.
02/20…RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE…-4…PREVIOUSLY -3 IN 1936.
02/21…RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE…-9…PREVIOUSLY -2 IN 1972/1950.
02/24…RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE…-8…PREVIOUSLY -4 IN 1907.
FEB…RECORD COLDEST MONTHLY AVG TEMP…16.1…PREV 16.5 IN 1934.
ALL-TIME…COLDEST MONTHLY AVG TEMP…16.1…PREV 16.5 IN FEB 1934.
________________________________________________________________
PROVIDENCE
…PERIOD OF RECORD: 1905 TO PRESENT…
AVG HIGH AVG LOW AVG MEAN PCPN SNOW REMARKS
——– ——- ——– —- —- ——-
DEC: 44.8 31.0 37.9 6.25 0.9
+2.5 +4.7 +3.6 +2.03 -7.8
JAN: 34.2 18.2 26.2 3.62 25.6 5TH SNOWIEST
-3.2 -2.8 -3.0 -0.24 +16.6
FEB: 28.3 8.5 18.4 2.73 31.8 2ND COLDEST
-12.0 -15.1 -13.6 -0.56 +23.3 ALL-TIME SNOWIEST
SEASONAL SUMMARY
—————-
WINTER: 35.8 19.2 27.5 12.60 58.3 3RD SNOWIEST
-4.2 -4.4 -4.3 +1.23 +32.1
RECORDS
——-
12/09…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…2.74…PREVIOUSLY 1.55 IN 1978.
12/24…RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE…64…PREVIOUSLY 60 IN 1990.
12/25…TIED RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE…63…ALSO SET IN 1964.
01/26…TIED RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…3.1…ALSO SET IN 1987.
01/27…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…16.0…PREVIOUSLY 6.7 IN 2011.
02/02…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…7.9…PREVIOUSLY 6.5 IN 1934.
02/21…RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE…-5…PREVIOUSLY -3 IN 1950.
02/24…TIED RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE…-3…ALSO SET IN 1907.
FEB…RECORD MONTHLY SNOWFALL…31.8…PREVIOUSLY 30.9 IN 1962.
ALL-TIME…2ND MONTHLY SNOWFALL…31.8…RECORD IS 37.4 – JAN 2005.
ALL-TIME…2ND COLDEST MONTHLY AVG…18.4…RECORD IS 17.4 – FEB 1934.
________________________________________________________________
WORCESTER
…PERIOD OF RECORD: 1892 TO PRESENT…
AVG HIGH AVG LOW AVG MEAN PCPN SNOW REMARKS
——– ——- ——– —- —- ——-
DEC: 37.9 27.3 32.6 4.90 1.5 9TH LEAST SNOWIEST
+1.6 +4.7 +3.2 +1.08 -12.9
JAN: 28.4 13.5 21.0 5.03 46.5 4TH SNOWIEST
-2.9 -3.3 -3.1 +1.54 +29.4
FEB: 23.3 5.1 14.2 3.28 53.4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
-11.3 -14.3 -12.8 +0.05 +37.8 ALL-TIME SNOWIEST
SEASONAL SUMMARY
—————-
WINTER: 29.9 15.3 22.6 13.21 101.4 ALL-TIME SNOWIEST
-4.1 -4.3 -4.2 +2.67 +54.3
RECORDS
——-
01/18…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…1.30…PREVIOUSLY 1.21 IN 2006.
01/27…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…31.9…PREVIOUSLY 11.0 IN 2011.
02/02…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…17.4…PREVIOUSLY 8.4 IN 1974.
FEB…RECORD COLDEST MONTHLY AVG TEMP…14.2…PREV 14.4 IN 1934.
FEB…RECORD MONTHLY SNOWFALL…53.4…PREV 45.2 IN 1996/1962.
WINTER…RECORD SEASONAL SNOWFALL…101.4…PREV 86.7 IN 2004-2005.
ALL-TIME…COLDEST MONTHLY AVG TEMP…14.2…PREV 14.4 IN FEB 1934.
ALL-TIME…MONTHLY SNOWFALL…53.4…PREV 50.9 IN JANUARY 2005.
_____________________________________________________________________________
The Week Ahead
SUMMARY…
The first full week of March will feature below normal temperatures and some unsettled weather, including a legitimate shot at Boston breaking its all time record for snowfall in a single season. That little detail remains to be seen but will largely be determined by how much snow falls there tonight and with the next shot of precipitation on Tuesday night. This is how I think it plays out: Low pressure tracks just south of New England tonight and exits the region early Monday. It brings a swath of accumulating snow to southern New England. Moisture is greatest along and south of the Mass Pike where the highest totals are expected to be. To the north, a little less precipitation also fighting drier air may limit snowfall. Another place where amounts may be limited would be Nantucket as it would be mild enough there for some mixing with sleet and rain. I will place expected accumulations in the forecast below and will adjust by edit and through comment messages if needed. As this system moves away Monday it will be replaced by drier weather with a gusty cold wind. Tuesday will dawn bright but end grey as another storm approaches. The track of this one is likely to take the low pressure center northwest of New England, but cold air will be tough to dislodge over the deep snow cover in place so it will be a snow to ice situation inland and snow to rain along the coast and especially toward the South Coast. What may happen is that the majority of the moisture may have come through while it was still cold enough to snow in many areas, so that by the time the ice/rain gets involved precipitation may be limited. This would be good as it would limit icing issues and limit the amount of water weight added to the snow cover. Most areas should warm enough for an end as liquid rain showers during Wednesday morning. This brief shot of “mild” air early Wednesday will be quickly replaced by colder air for later in the week, though not as cold as some recent cold shots. It may also be somewhat unsettled as there will be a broad trough in the upper levels across the Northeast, and some systems will be moving along the jet stream during the Thursday through Sunday period. We may even have to watch the recently-departed system from midweek through Thursday and Friday in case some of this moisture ripples back to the north and catches southern New England with some additional precipitation.
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Cloudy with snow, except a possibly mix with sleet/rain Nantucket. Snow accumulation 1-3 inches southern NH and northern two thirds of MA as well as the outer part of Cape Cod and on Martha’s Vineyard, 1-2 inches on Nantucket, and 3-6 inches in the southern third of MA and the state of RI. Temperatures steady in the 20s except 30-35 immediate South Coast and Islands. Wind variable under 15 MPH.
MONDAY: Early clouds, then sunshine with passing clouds. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows around 10 inland, 15 coast except near 20 Cape Cod. W breeze.
TUESDAY: Sunshine followed by clouds. Snow arrives evening, may turn to ice some areas and rain South Coast at night. Highs around 30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain showers. Temperatures steady 30s to lower 40s.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow especially Cape Cod. Lows 25-30. Highs 35-40.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 25-30. Highs 35-40.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 15-20. Highs 35-40.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 20-25. Highs 30-35.
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The Spring Ahead
Hey, it’s almost time to “spring ahead”, that is, change the clocks forward an hour to Daylight Savings Time. Takes place next weekend (2AM Sunday). But that’s not what this section is about. It’s a quick outlook for Meteorological Spring. Here goes.
March: Slow transition out of the February pattern taking place now, and as previously mentioned, the deep snowcover will refrigerate the region and modify air masses. A look ahead beyond the 7-day forecast period above indicates that below normal temperatures will last through mid month, though not to the levels of departure we saw in February. There still may be a couple quick shots of air from the Arctic, but with a pattern that will trend drier, more days of sun will allow for a gradual melt of the big snowcover. If we can get this to happen in the absence of big rain events, it will minimize flooding and other concerns. Late March is likely to be a little wetter, but more toward the average, with temperatures near to below normal.
April: Some evidence for a ridge wanting to become established in the Caribbean and Southeast, with a mean trough shifting back to the Western States. Though this may place New England in the jet stream and prone to passing systems, we should see a temperature moderation, not only seasonally but also pattern-driven. This, and the alternating fair weather and passing systems pattern should result in fairly close to normal precipitation and slightly below normal temperatures as it takes the ground a while to warm after drying out post snow cover.
May: The pattern of April will continue to slowly build. There will likely be a few instances, however, where we see some cut off lows messing up the weather for a few days, i.e. cool and damp while areas not far away are bright and warm. Not really atypical. Coastal areas may also be on the cool side quite often during the Spring as water temperatures will start the season below normal and will take some time to warm. Overall temperatures for May should average near normal coastal areas, near to above normal inland, with precipitation below normal for the region.