Weekend Update

9:14PM

SUMMARY…
The rain part of the weekend storm is over, having exited to the east on Saturday evening. Low as low pressure exits, an inverted surface trough develops as a mid and upper level low comes across the region Sunday. This means showers, starting as rain or a mix in many areas Sunday morning but transitioning to snow showers as it turns colder. It’s unclear on how persistent these will be, but they may deliver some minor snow accumulation to eastern MA and southern NH before ending during the evening. Monday starts cold and dry then turns milder with advancing clouds ahead of a low pressure area from the Great Lakes which will pass north of the region early Tuesday, dragging an Arctic cold front through. This system will produce rain showers ending as snow showers. The Wednesday through Friday period look cold and dry though a few additional snow showers may be isolated around the region on Wednesday as a secondary trough moves through. By the very end of next week and the start of the weekend, we may be dealing with a messy weather situation as Astronomical Spring arrives. This is far from a certainty as not all medium range guidance is in agreement about this potential system so far in advance. For now, just something to watch.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to isolated rain showers. Temperatures steady 35-40 southern NH and northern MA and 40-45 southern MA and RI. Wind variable to NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers of rain and mix becoming all snow from north to south during the afternoon. Possible snow accumulation of a coating to 1 inch from northern RI north and east except possibly 1-2 inches in a few locations from Boston northward. Temperatures falling slowly through the 30s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with scattered snow showers early, then clearing. Lows around 20. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
MONDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 40-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Rain showers changing to snow showers morning. Temperatures fall through 30s. Becoming windy.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated snow showers. Windy. Low 15. High 30.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 35.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix at night. Low 20. High 40.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow. Low 30. High 40.

Weekend Outlook

7:46PM

SUMMARY…
Here comes an unsettled March weekend. Nothing spectacular or unusual. The system will be largely rainfall versus anything else for the bulk of its precipitation, though some freezing rain may lead things off Saturday morning, and some snow showers will prolong the end of the system during Sunday. This all takes place as a complex low pressure area lifts northeastward into the region Saturday then sinks back to the east southeast on Sunday. It’s out of here Monday but hot on its heels is another low pressure system – this one moving out of central Canada and passing north of New England by Tuesday. But it will send clouds in later Monday and some rain showers changing to snow showers as a strong cold front passes through on Tuesday. This introduces much colder air but mainly dry weather for the middle to end portion of next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-30 except 30-35 South Coast. Wind S under 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain arrives by mid morning RI and southern MA and by late morning northern MA and southern NH though it may begin as a period of freezing rain especially interior MA and southern NH. Pockets of heavier rain possible, especially southern MA and RI during the afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 40-45. Wind SE to E up to 15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain ending. Lows in the 30s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers developing, may start as rain showers south of Boston. Minor snow accumulation possible in some locations, mainly under 1 inch, but a few areas over 1 inch possible in northeastern MA and southern NH. Temperatures steady in the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain showers night. Low 25. High 45.
TUESDAY: Chance of snow showers morning. Decreasing clouds. Temperatures fall through 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 30.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 15. High 35.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 40.

Ready To Make A Chilling

3:14AM

SUMMARY…
The mild tease is over. And now the colder pattern returns and hangs around for a while. It starts as a cold front drops southeastward across southern new England to start the day today. A few snow showers may accompany this front across southern NH and northeastern MA, otherwise the day will feature some clouds giving way to more sun with a gusty wind and much cooler air. Tonight turns quite cold and the chill continues Friday with sun filtered by high clouds as high pressure slips off to the east and low pressure approaches from the southwest. This low will take the weekend to pass through this area. The cold air will retreat, allowing the bulk of the precipitation to fall as rain, though some snow/ice may start things out in parts of northern MA and southern NH early Saturday. But Saturday night, cold air may try to work back in from the north as it also starts to cool down aloft. This may allow a mix or change to snow at least north and west of Boston. It’s not quite clear yet how much of a mix/change will take place. This will be something to follow closely. Any rain/snow should taper off Sunday morning though snow and rain showers may linger well into the day. By Monday, expect clearing and cool weather. A strong cold front is expected to arrive late Tuesday introducing a late-season shot of significant cold for the middle of next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Partly cloudy early to mid morning with passing snow showers possible across southern NH and northeastern MA, then mostly sunny. Temperatures steady 35-42. Wind W shifting to NW increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-20 inland, 20s coast. Diminishing NW wind.
FRIDAY: Sunshine filtered by high cloudiness at times. Highs around 40. Wind light W to SW.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain may start as mix northern areas early then may change back to mix/snow especially north and west of Boston at night. Temperatures in the 30s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow north, mix/rain south early, then rain/snow showers. Temperatures in the 30s.
MONDAY: Clearing. Low 25. High 40.
TUESDAY: Sunny start, clouds with rain to snow showers late. Low 25. High 45.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 20. High 35.

A Mild Treat Then Back To Reality

5:20PM

SUMMARY…
A weak storm passing south of New England will toss a shield of rain into southern New England this evening, but it should be light enough that it does not cause any flooding issues. This exits by early Wednesday and sun returns with mild air for several hours before a cold front passes and sends the temperature into a tumble late in the day and at night. This sets up dry and chilly weather for Thursday and Friday. The weekend continues to look unsettled with periods of precipitation, probably starting as a snow/mix early Saturday, going to rain in most if not all areas, then trending back to a mix or snow for some areas before tapering off later Sunday. Still time to work out the details as this will be a complex low pressure area stretched out across the US Northeast. A one-day break Monday may be followed by another unsettled day Tuesday of next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Cloudy. A period of light rain southern NH and northern MA which may freeze on surfaces in some of the valleys, and light to moderate rain from the Boston area south and southeast, ending by dawn. Areas of fog. Lows 32-40, coolest interior valleys. Wind light SE to S.
WEDNESDAY: Breaking clouds and areas of fog early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 40s Cape Cod, 50s elsewhere. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An isolated rain or snow shower southern NH and north central MA early. Lows in the 20s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-40 interior MA and southern NH, 40-45 RI and coastal MA. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Lows 15-20. Highs 35-40.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix to rain. Lows 20-25. Highs 40-45.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain to mix/snow. Temperatures fall from near 40 to near 30.
MONDAY: Clearing. Lows 25-30. Highs 40-45.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow. Lows 30-35. Highs 35-40.

Don’t Get Too Used To It

7:43PM

COMMENTARY…
Reprieve. Melting. Mild. Spring? Sorry folks, it’s still Winter, and will be for another 11 days on the calendar and who knows how long in the overall weather pattern. But despite the couple of milder days now, the overall pattern is still a chilly one, and will not be absent of late season snow threats. Many that are lulled into the false sense of security will be jolted out of it by the reality of a colder air mass arriving Thursday and a potential storm this coming weekend, and more “fun” to follow next week.

SUMMARY…
Arctic air has retreated northward into Canada and will stay there for a while. A storm system will track across the US Southeast and off the Mid Atlantic Coast by Tuesday night and the northern edge of its precipitation shield will make it into southeastern New England, but this time it will be mild enough so that it rains instead of snows. After that exits Wednesday, a trough and then a cold front pass through the region. The trough will dry the air out, but with the colder air hanging back until the cold front passes, it will allow the temperature to break 50 in some locations for the first time in a long while on Wednesday. This short lived “warm-up” will be followed by a couple chilly and dry days Thursday and Friday. Over the weekend, a slow-moving and evolving storm system will bring unsettled and chilly weather. It’s not quite clear what form the precipitation will take at any given time, but both rain and snow are probable. The details will be ironed out as the time draws closer. This system should exit by Monday of next week.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-20 interior valleys, 20s most areas but around 30 across Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 40-48, mildest interior MA. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain, steadiest southeastern MA and RI. Lows 35-42. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Clearing. Highs 40s Cape Cod, 50-55 elsewhere. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 24. High 42.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 17. High 38.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow and rain. Low 30. High 39.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain and snow. Low 35. High 40.
MONDAY: Clearing. Low 32. High 43.

The Week Ahead Plus (8 On The 8th)

10:42AM

8 day forecast today. It’s March 8. And 8 is my lucky number. What more reason do we need?

SUMMARY…
Weak frontal system moving through today brings clouds and some showers of snow and possibly rain through mid afternoon then drier air clears things out later. High pressure arrives tonight through Monday with fair but chilly weather as our deep snow cover continues to modify the air. A storm system will pass south of the region late Tuesday into Wednesday bringing lots of clouds and a slight chance of some light rain to southern areas as the air will be relatively mild as compared to recently, but still on the cool side of normal. The bigger warm-up you may have heard advertised via some media outlets is not going to come to be. Patience required. A fresh shot of cold air arrives Thursday as high pressure builds in and brings fair weather into Friday. Low pressure approaches from the south while high pressure re-strengthens north of the region by next weekend and this will be a set-up for a probable storm including snow, ice, and rain. Obviously way too early for details on this potential system, but it should give Boston at least a 50/50 shot at breaking the all time seasonal snowfall record.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
SUNDAY MID AFTERNOON: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with passing snow showers, possibly mixed with rain. Brief moderate snow is possible. Highs 35-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.
SUNDAY LATE DAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Temperatures cool through 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH and gusty.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10s inland valleys, 20-25 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 40-45. Wind light SE.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of light rain south early. Low 35. High 45.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 25. High 35.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Low 20. High 35.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow/ice/rain. Temps rise 30 to 40.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/ice/snow. Temps fall 40 to 30.

One For A Week

5:09PM

SUMMARY…
Only one system of any note, and you can consider it a minor note, will be making itself known during the coming 7 days. That will be a weak clipper system that passes north of southern New England late Saturday to early Sunday. This will bring some cloudiness to the region this weekend, but less cold than the past couple days. There may be a few passing snow showers Saturday night, but that is about it. Monday through Friday of next week look dry, chilly at the start and finish, milder in the middle, as high pressure dominates and any weak fronts that pass will be moisture-starved. This break will be nice as it will allow the region to recover from the previous storms and will result in a slow snow-melt. Please watch for falling ice when working around structures that still have ice on them, as the warmer March sun will be loosening and melting most of that away during the coming days.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-15 except 15-20 coast/urban areas. Wind SW under 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-35 except upper 30s Cape Cod. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers with coatings of snow possible in some areas. Lows 25-30. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Highs 35-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 35.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 40.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 45.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 25. High 40.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 25. High 35.

The Dries Of March

10:53PM

SUMMARY…
In a season of unforgettable Winter events, add another. This is the sharp edge snow event of Thursday in which a strung-out snowfall took place in southeastern New England. Snow amounts were only traces in the immediate Boston area with nothing to the north, but heading south amounts build quickly to around 6 inches in Plymouth to around a foot on parts of Cape Cod. As of 10PM Thursday, snow continues to fall on parts of the Cape. But overnight it finally clears in all areas with very cold air pushing in. This will lead to a bright but very cold Friday, another day of well below average temperatures. Moderation will occur this weekend, and even more next week, as temperatures get to near to below average for a few days. Deep snow cover will continues to modify warm-ups for some time, none of them reaching their bare-ground potential. What will be absent will be significant storm threats with only minor systems traversing the area.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Lows 0-15 from the outlying areas to Cape Cod. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 20-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH morning, light variable afternoon.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-15. Wind light SW.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 20-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 35-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 40.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 40.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 45.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 45.

Quick Update

8:00PM

Pardon the lack of update. Been running around with many things to take care of. “March Madness”. 🙂

SUMMARY…
A cold front settles south of New England and wave of low pressure moves along it tonight. As cold air filters in, precipitation will arrive, mix to snow, and bring a light accumulation to portions of the region, with some moderate amounts possible toward the South Coast. This all exits Thursday morning. Clearing and much colder weather arrives Thursday night, and Friday will be a very cold day for early March but with dry weather. The weekend will still be on the cold side of normal, though not as cold as Friday. A weak system moving through around Saturday night and early Sunday may produce a few snow showers. Early next week another small system may make a run at the region, probably around Tuesday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Overcast. Precipitation arrives southwest to northeast as brief rain/snow mix then changes to snow and accumulates a coating to 1 inch southern NH and northern MA, 1 to 3 inches Boston to Worcester southward except 3-6 inches portions of South Coast. Lows in the 20s.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lingering snow early South Coast. Temperatures steady in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 5-10 inland, 10-15 coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers late. Low 15. High 35.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers early. Low 25. High 30.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers late. Low 25. High 40.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers early. Low 25. High 40.

Active Early March

1:06AM

SUMMARY…
More cold, more storminess, but we’re very slowly climbing out of the worst of the deep cave of Winter 2015. But we’ll still be having our moments of storminess including some Winter weather, and 2 are coming up in fairly quick succession. The first will be from low pressure tracking northwest of New England Tuesday night and Wednesday. Its warm front will approach late Tuesday and bring a swath of snow into southern New England, producing up to a few quick inches before warmer air aloft turns the snow to sleet/ice/rain (depending on location) then finally ending as scattered rain showers early Wednesday as milder air makes it to the surface behind the passing warm front. A cold front will quickly follow, but will not have any meaningful precipitation with it. This front will settle just southeast of the region by Wednesday night, and then a wave of low pressure will move northeastward along it, passing southeast of New England Thursday morning and midday, as the colder air comes back into the region. This will produce snow, which may start as rain or a mix, across southeastern New England for the morning and early afternoon of Thursday, with the greatest chance for significant snow accumulation in southeastern MA and RI. After this system departs, look for a dry but cold Friday. A weak low pressure area will cross the Great Lakes and move north of the area later Saturday and early Sunday with a few snow showers possible. This will be followed by a small area of high pressure and dry and chilly weather for later Sunday into Monday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 25-30. Wind NW up to 10 MPH early, becoming SE 5-15 MPH by late day.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow arrives west to east early and accumulates 1 to 3 inches during the evening, then changes to sleet and rain from south to north, some freezing rain inland, late evening before tapering off overnight with just a few lingering rain showers except a few icy pockets inland. Temperature rise into the 30s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to S.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers. Highs 35-40 interior valleys, 40-45 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain and snow arriving southwest to northeast, changing to snow. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with snow, accumulating a coating to a few inches southern NH and northern MA, a few to several inches southern MA and RI, tapering off by late. Temperatures steady in the 20s. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 15. High 25.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers late. Low 20. High 35.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Low 25. High 35.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 40.

The Winter Review / The Week Ahead / The Spring Ahead

7:42PM

The Winter Review

Here in Woburn, in the northwest suburbs of Boston, Winter got off to a slow start, snow-wise, though if you include November as part of your Winter season, it felt like Winter a little early as it was a chilly month. This was followed by a mild, wet, and nearly snowless December. Things changed again in January which was a cold and mainly dry month for its first 3 weeks with limited snow. Here in Woburn, through January 23, less than 10 inches of snow had fallen for the season-to-date, while Boston had seen 5.5 inches of snow. In a joking yet serious way, sometime in early or mid January I had noted on the blog that I felt most of the snow for the Winter would take place during the period January 24 through March 8. Of course at the time, I wasn’t expecting the pattern to change essentially ON January 24 (the first storm of what would become a seemingly endless barrage of storms that shattered several records). The dates were really picked as a rough boundary around what I thought would be a period of active storminess. I did not expect the extreme cold that ended up accompanying this very stormy period. Here we sit on March 1 now, the first day of Meteorological Spring, but still in Astronomical Winter and also still in a Winter weather pattern, a new snow event getting underway as of the writing of this blog. Will the pattern last until exactly March 8? Probably not exactly, but it is safe to say we are by the worst of the cold and frequent snow even though we are not quite clear of bouts of this kind of weather. More to come on this below. Before that we’ll look at the coming week, and before that still, I will end this section with a review of Meteorological Winter for some southern New England cities, prepared by the National Weather Service.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1253 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

…WINTER 2014-2015 IN REVIEW…

ALL DATA PRESENTED HEREIN IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO REVISION.

ANY MONTHLY RECORDS FALLING WITHIN THE TOP TEN OF THE PERIOD OF
RECORD WILL BE ANNOTATED IN THE REMARKS SECTION IMMEDIATELY RIGHT.

BOSTON

…PERIOD OF RECORD: 1872 TO PRESENT…

AVG HIGH AVG LOW AVG MEAN PCPN SNOW REMARKS
——– ——- ——– —- —- ——-

DEC: 43.7 32.7 38.2 6.56 0.3
+2.5 +4.5 +3.5 +2.78 -8.7

JAN: 33.1 19.0 26.1 3.57 34.3 6TH SNOWIEST
-2.7 -3.2 -2.9 +0.21 +21.4

FEB: 27.8 10.1 19.0 3.37 64.8 2ND COLDEST
-10.9 -14.6 -12.7 +0.12 +53.9 ALL-TIME SNOWIEST

SEASONAL SUMMARY
——————

WINTER: 34.9 20.6 27.8 13.50 99.4 ALL-TIME SNOWIEST
-3.7 -4.5 -4.0 +3.11 +66.6

RECORDS
——-
12/09…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…2.90…PREVIOUSLY 1.29 IN 1956.
12/25…RECORD MAXIMUM LOW TEMPERATURE…44…PREVIOUSLY 43 IN 1888.
01/27…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…22.1…PREVIOUSLY 8.8 IN 2011.
02/02…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…16.2…PREVIOUSLY 11.1 IN 1974.
02/09…TIED RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…14.8…ALSO SET IN 2013.
02/15…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…13.0…PREVIOUSLY 11.0 IN 1940.
FEB…RECORD MONTHLY SNOWFALL…64.8…PREVIOUSLY 41.6 IN 2003.
WINTER…RECORD SEASONAL SNOWFALL…99.4…PREVIOUSLY 81.5 IN 1993-1994.
ALL-TIME…MONTHLY SNOWFALL…64.8…PREVIOUSLY 43.3 IN JANUARY 2005.
ALL-TIME…2ND COLDEST MONTHLY AVG…19.0…RECORD IS 17.5 – FEB 1934.

________________________________________________________________

HARTFORD

…PERIOD OF RECORD: 1905 TO PRESENT…

AVG HIGH AVG LOW AVG MEAN PCPN SNOW REMARKS
——– ——- ——– —- —- ——-

DEC: 42.0 29.3 35.7 4.55 0.7 9TH LEAST SNOWIEST
+2.3 +5.9 +4.1 +1.11 -6.7

JAN: 32.3 14.3 23.3 3.23 17.1
-2.2 -3.4 -2.8 0.00 +4.8

FEB: 27.2 4.9 16.1 2.95 31.9 ALL-TIME COLDEST
-11.3 -16.0 -13.6 +0.06 +20.9 3RD SNOWIEST

SEASONAL SUMMARY
——————

WINTER: 33.8 16.2 25.0 10.73 49.7
-3.7 -4.5 -4.1 +1.17 +19.0

RECORDS
——-
12/09…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…1.77…PREVIOUSLY 1.33 IN 1978.
12/25…RECORD MAXIMUM LOW TEMPERATURE…43…PREVIOUSLY 42 IN 1987.
01/18…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…1.32…PREVIOUSLY 0.99 IN 2006.
02/02…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…10.8…PREVIOUSLY 6.5 IN 1916.
02/06…RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE…-7…PREVIOUSLY -5 IN 1988/1910.
02/20…RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE…-4…PREVIOUSLY -3 IN 1936.
02/21…RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE…-9…PREVIOUSLY -2 IN 1972/1950.
02/24…RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE…-8…PREVIOUSLY -4 IN 1907.
FEB…RECORD COLDEST MONTHLY AVG TEMP…16.1…PREV 16.5 IN 1934.
ALL-TIME…COLDEST MONTHLY AVG TEMP…16.1…PREV 16.5 IN FEB 1934.

________________________________________________________________

PROVIDENCE

…PERIOD OF RECORD: 1905 TO PRESENT…

AVG HIGH AVG LOW AVG MEAN PCPN SNOW REMARKS
——– ——- ——– —- —- ——-

DEC: 44.8 31.0 37.9 6.25 0.9
+2.5 +4.7 +3.6 +2.03 -7.8

JAN: 34.2 18.2 26.2 3.62 25.6 5TH SNOWIEST
-3.2 -2.8 -3.0 -0.24 +16.6

FEB: 28.3 8.5 18.4 2.73 31.8 2ND COLDEST
-12.0 -15.1 -13.6 -0.56 +23.3 ALL-TIME SNOWIEST

SEASONAL SUMMARY
—————-

WINTER: 35.8 19.2 27.5 12.60 58.3 3RD SNOWIEST
-4.2 -4.4 -4.3 +1.23 +32.1

RECORDS
——-
12/09…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…2.74…PREVIOUSLY 1.55 IN 1978.
12/24…RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE…64…PREVIOUSLY 60 IN 1990.
12/25…TIED RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE…63…ALSO SET IN 1964.
01/26…TIED RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…3.1…ALSO SET IN 1987.
01/27…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…16.0…PREVIOUSLY 6.7 IN 2011.
02/02…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…7.9…PREVIOUSLY 6.5 IN 1934.
02/21…RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE…-5…PREVIOUSLY -3 IN 1950.
02/24…TIED RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE…-3…ALSO SET IN 1907.
FEB…RECORD MONTHLY SNOWFALL…31.8…PREVIOUSLY 30.9 IN 1962.
ALL-TIME…2ND MONTHLY SNOWFALL…31.8…RECORD IS 37.4 – JAN 2005.
ALL-TIME…2ND COLDEST MONTHLY AVG…18.4…RECORD IS 17.4 – FEB 1934.

________________________________________________________________

WORCESTER

…PERIOD OF RECORD: 1892 TO PRESENT…

AVG HIGH AVG LOW AVG MEAN PCPN SNOW REMARKS
——– ——- ——– —- —- ——-

DEC: 37.9 27.3 32.6 4.90 1.5 9TH LEAST SNOWIEST
+1.6 +4.7 +3.2 +1.08 -12.9

JAN: 28.4 13.5 21.0 5.03 46.5 4TH SNOWIEST
-2.9 -3.3 -3.1 +1.54 +29.4

FEB: 23.3 5.1 14.2 3.28 53.4 ALL-TIME COLDEST
-11.3 -14.3 -12.8 +0.05 +37.8 ALL-TIME SNOWIEST

SEASONAL SUMMARY
—————-

WINTER: 29.9 15.3 22.6 13.21 101.4 ALL-TIME SNOWIEST
-4.1 -4.3 -4.2 +2.67 +54.3

RECORDS
——-
01/18…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…1.30…PREVIOUSLY 1.21 IN 2006.
01/27…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…31.9…PREVIOUSLY 11.0 IN 2011.
02/02…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…17.4…PREVIOUSLY 8.4 IN 1974.
FEB…RECORD COLDEST MONTHLY AVG TEMP…14.2…PREV 14.4 IN 1934.
FEB…RECORD MONTHLY SNOWFALL…53.4…PREV 45.2 IN 1996/1962.
WINTER…RECORD SEASONAL SNOWFALL…101.4…PREV 86.7 IN 2004-2005.
ALL-TIME…COLDEST MONTHLY AVG TEMP…14.2…PREV 14.4 IN FEB 1934.
ALL-TIME…MONTHLY SNOWFALL…53.4…PREV 50.9 IN JANUARY 2005.

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The Week Ahead

SUMMARY…
The first full week of March will feature below normal temperatures and some unsettled weather, including a legitimate shot at Boston breaking its all time record for snowfall in a single season. That little detail remains to be seen but will largely be determined by how much snow falls there tonight and with the next shot of precipitation on Tuesday night. This is how I think it plays out: Low pressure tracks just south of New England tonight and exits the region early Monday. It brings a swath of accumulating snow to southern New England. Moisture is greatest along and south of the Mass Pike where the highest totals are expected to be. To the north, a little less precipitation also fighting drier air may limit snowfall. Another place where amounts may be limited would be Nantucket as it would be mild enough there for some mixing with sleet and rain. I will place expected accumulations in the forecast below and will adjust by edit and through comment messages if needed. As this system moves away Monday it will be replaced by drier weather with a gusty cold wind. Tuesday will dawn bright but end grey as another storm approaches. The track of this one is likely to take the low pressure center northwest of New England, but cold air will be tough to dislodge over the deep snow cover in place so it will be a snow to ice situation inland and snow to rain along the coast and especially toward the South Coast. What may happen is that the majority of the moisture may have come through while it was still cold enough to snow in many areas, so that by the time the ice/rain gets involved precipitation may be limited. This would be good as it would limit icing issues and limit the amount of water weight added to the snow cover. Most areas should warm enough for an end as liquid rain showers during Wednesday morning. This brief shot of “mild” air early Wednesday will be quickly replaced by colder air for later in the week, though not as cold as some recent cold shots. It may also be somewhat unsettled as there will be a broad trough in the upper levels across the Northeast, and some systems will be moving along the jet stream during the Thursday through Sunday period. We may even have to watch the recently-departed system from midweek through Thursday and Friday in case some of this moisture ripples back to the north and catches southern New England with some additional precipitation.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Cloudy with snow, except a possibly mix with sleet/rain Nantucket. Snow accumulation 1-3 inches southern NH and northern two thirds of MA as well as the outer part of Cape Cod and on Martha’s Vineyard, 1-2 inches on Nantucket, and 3-6 inches in the southern third of MA and the state of RI. Temperatures steady in the 20s except 30-35 immediate South Coast and Islands. Wind variable under 15 MPH.
MONDAY: Early clouds, then sunshine with passing clouds. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows around 10 inland, 15 coast except near 20 Cape Cod. W breeze.
TUESDAY: Sunshine followed by clouds. Snow arrives evening, may turn to ice some areas and rain South Coast at night. Highs around 30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain showers. Temperatures steady 30s to lower 40s.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow especially Cape Cod. Lows 25-30. Highs 35-40.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 25-30. Highs 35-40.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 15-20. Highs 35-40.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 20-25. Highs 30-35.

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The Spring Ahead

Hey, it’s almost time to “spring ahead”, that is, change the clocks forward an hour to Daylight Savings Time. Takes place next weekend (2AM Sunday). But that’s not what this section is about. It’s a quick outlook for Meteorological Spring. Here goes.

March: Slow transition out of the February pattern taking place now, and as previously mentioned, the deep snowcover will refrigerate the region and modify air masses. A look ahead beyond the 7-day forecast period above indicates that below normal temperatures will last through mid month, though not to the levels of departure we saw in February. There still may be a couple quick shots of air from the Arctic, but with a pattern that will trend drier, more days of sun will allow for a gradual melt of the big snowcover. If we can get this to happen in the absence of big rain events, it will minimize flooding and other concerns. Late March is likely to be a little wetter, but more toward the average, with temperatures near to below normal.

April: Some evidence for a ridge wanting to become established in the Caribbean and Southeast, with a mean trough shifting back to the Western States. Though this may place New England in the jet stream and prone to passing systems, we should see a temperature moderation, not only seasonally but also pattern-driven. This, and the alternating fair weather and passing systems pattern should result in fairly close to normal precipitation and slightly below normal temperatures as it takes the ground a while to warm after drying out post snow cover.

May: The pattern of April will continue to slowly build. There will likely be a few instances, however, where we see some cut off lows messing up the weather for a few days, i.e. cool and damp while areas not far away are bright and warm. Not really atypical. Coastal areas may also be on the cool side quite often during the Spring as water temperatures will start the season below normal and will take some time to warm. Overall temperatures for May should average near normal coastal areas, near to above normal inland, with precipitation below normal for the region.