The Week Ahead

11:09PM

REMINDER…
Adjusted format begins with a late Monday post. As always, comments and suggestions are welcomed!

SUMMARY…
A sharp cold front dropped from north to south through southern New England during Sunday. Many places saw temperatures fall 10 to 20 degrees in just an hour or two, and many areas sat at 20 to 30 degrees cooler by late Sunday afternoon than just 24 hours prior. Along with this came bands of showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain leading to areas of flooding. The worst of this has been tapering off during Sunday evening, but the frontal boundary sitting just to the south with waves of low pressure along it, and high pressure to the north, will combine to create damp and very cool conditions well into Tuesday with periods of rain and drizzle. By mid week, high pressure will build down from the north, dry it out but still keep it on the cool side. By late week, high pressure will sink to the south allowing for a warm-up, but we’ll have to watch another high pressure area that may build to the north and try to push another cool-down this way. There is some uncertainty regarding the weekend due to this, and the possibility a disturbance will also try to ride through the Northeast at some point despite the high pressure battle ongoing. The result here, a lower than average confidence forecast for Friday-Sunday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain, drizzle, and fog. Lows 45-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain, drizzle, and fog. Highs 49-58. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain, drizzle, and fog. Lows 45-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, drizzle, and fog, tapering off with time. Highs 50-59. Wind NE 10-20 MPH and gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 45-50 interior, 50-55 coast. Highs 60-65 coast, 65-70 interior.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 50-55. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 interior.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs 65-70 coast, 70s interior.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 55-60. Highs 70s coast, 80-85 interior.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 60-65. Highs in the 70s, coolest coastal areas.

Weekend Update

5:25PM

COMMENTARY/REMINDER…
Hope everybody is having a good weekend! This is a reminder of a format change coming on Monday. I will still issue The Week Ahead post later Sunday with a 7-day forecast, but the posts starting Monday will have the 1-5, 6-10, 11-15 breakdown, as described recently. What follows in this post is a quick update, reflecting a slight change in thinking for early in the week.

SUMMARY…
After a cooler interlude on Friday, the feel of Summer returned on Saturday as the easterly flow was replaced by a southwesterly one. But now another change is coming, and this one will hold some benefit in the form of rain that is badly needed in southern New England. The change will be brought about by a cold front sinking down from the north on Sunday, triggering showers and possible thunderstorms. The front will then hang up and allow disturbances to ride along it, keeping occasional wet weather going Monday and Tuesday. While this is ongoing, an already cool air mass will be made cooler and more damp by an air flow coming from the Canadian Maritmies via the Gulf of Maine. The result will be an April feel to the first couple days of June. It remains to be seen how much rain will take place during the coming 3-day unsettled stretch. There is some chance that the axis of heaviest rain may set up north of the region, leaving southern New England out of getting the most benefit. This will be fine-tuned in future updates. By the middle of next week, high pressure will sink southward and return dry weather to the region. By later in the week, a return southerly flow of warmer air will get underway.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy with patchy fog and a slight chance of showers late. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers developing and may become more widespread. Chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures steady in 60s South Coast, falling late day. Highs in the 70s elsewhere but falling through the 60s during the afternoon. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to N from north to south during the day.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Patchy fog and drizzle. Lows in the 50s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Episodes of showers. Areas of fog and drizzle. Highs 55-60 coast, 60s interior areas. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Additional showers and possible drizzle. Lows 50-55. Highs 55-60 coast, 60s interior.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s except 70-75 well inland.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in 50s. Highs 65-70 coast, 70s interior.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 55-60. Highs around 70 coast to around 80 interior.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows around 60. Highs 70s coast, 80-85 interior.

Fab Friday / Split Weekend

11:25PM

SUMMARY…
An area of high pressure will bring wonderful late Spring weather to southern New England on Friday. It will be less warm than the Summery 3 days preceding it, and also less humid. The coastal areas will be cooler than the interior due to a sea breeze. By Friday night, some low clouds may try to come onshore from the east, and more will appear from the south during the night as high pressure slips to the southeast and a southerly flow develops. This flow will turn more southwesterly on Saturday, allowing the feel of Summer to return. This will set up the potential for some beneficial rain as a slow-moving cold front arrives Sunday. It remains to be seen how much rain will result, but it is the best shot in a while at some relief from the developing drought. This does not indicate a switch to a wet pattern, however, as a drier regime will resume next week. The early part of the week will be on the cool side, however, as high pressure parks itself north of the region and provides a regional onshore flow. By the middle of next week, high pressure will sink to the southeast and allow a warm-up to get underway.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 56-64. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-70 immediate coast, 70s elsewhere. Wind N up to 10 MPH but sea breezes developing.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy with clouds most dominant in coastal areas. Lows 55-60. Wind light SE to S.
SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny but low clouds may be stubborn near the South Coast. More humid. Highs near 70 immediate South Coast up to the 80s most interior areas. Wind S to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 65-70 South Coast, 70-75 elsewhere, but turning cooler all areas during the afternoon. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Lows 55-60. Highs in the 60s, coolest coast.
TUESDAY: Clearing. Lows 55-60. Highs in the 60s, coolest coast.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Lows 55-60. Highs 60s coast to 70s inland.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Lows 55-60. Highs 70s coast to 80-85 inland.

Thursday Forecast Update

3:10AM

SUMMARY…
Again no major changes. Things are doing as expected with a warm and humid air mass in place now, to be cut into by a cold front later today, bringing the risk of some showers and thunderstorms from northwest to southeast. No severe weather is expected, but a stronger storm cannot be ruled out, especially away from the coast. High pressure brings fair weather and a little drier air for Friday. The feel of Summer returns Saturday as this high will be offshore. Some low cloudiness may reach eastern coastal areas during Friday due to some light easterly flow, and additional low cloudiness may dominate the South Coast Saturday as the wind turns more to the south with more humidity. Another cold front will move in from the west late Saturday and take most of Sunday to push through. This brings more unsettled weather and some chance at least areas of beneficial rain. High pressure presses down from the north by Monday but cloudiness may linger due to onshore flow, breaking up somewhat Tuesday as high pressure moves closer. This high will also bring cooler air as June begins. A warm-up will commence by the middle of next week as the high sinks further to the south.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mid to late afternoon well north and west of Boston, late afternoon and evening close to Boston and to the southeast. Humid. Highs 65-70 South Coast, 70s to lower 80s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows 55-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs in the 70s, upper 60s coastal areas. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-65. Highs in the 80s, cooler South Coast.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 60-65. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle and showers. Lows 55-60. Highs 60-65.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 55-60. Highs 65-70.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-60. Highs 65-70 South Coast, 70s elsewhere.

Summer Then Spring

7:28AM

SUMMARY…
The feel of Summer in the last days of Meteorological Spring, then the feel of Spring in the first days of Meteorological Summer. Typical New England. No major changes at this time from what was discussed in the last entry. The Summer preview got established on Tuesday and will continue for the rest of this week, though there will be a few changes during this time with a weak cold front bringing some showers and thunderstorms into the region mainly well north and west of Boston today and into most of the region Thursday, though this does not look like it will become a widespread beneficial rain. We’ll also see a brief cool down and dry push of air Friday before the feel of Summer returns Saturday. By Sunday another cold front will arrive and this one may produce more widespread showers and thunderstorms. As June begins, the first couple days of it (Monday and Tuesday next week) look much cooler.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm late-day north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 65-70 South Coast and 70s just inland from there, 80s elsewhere, may reach 90 in a few locations. More humid. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mid to late afternoon well north and west of Boston, late afternoon and evening close to Boston and to the southeast. Humid. Highs 65-70 South Coast, 70s to lower 80s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 55-60. Highs in the 70s.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-65. Highs in the 80s, cooler South Coast.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 60-65. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle and showers. Lows 55-60. Highs 60-65.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 55-60. Highs 65-70.

The Three Fives

9:30PM

NOTE…
If you tend to just read the most recent post, be aware that there were two posts made Monday evening. Don’t miss the post containing the outlook for Summer!

ANNOUNCEMENT…
Starting on Monday June 1, I’m going to introduce a slight change to the blog format. There will be a daily (or almost daily) forecast post which will have a discussion about current and upcoming weather, a detailed forecast for days 1 through 5, an outlook with less detail but an overall idea of what to expect during days 6 through 10, and a very brief look ahead about what the expected pattern may result in for days 11 through 15. This is a format I am familiar with and worked with for many years, and I’m going to give it a try here. So these forecasts will be delivered in 3 groups of 5 days, with obviously the most focus being on the first 5 days. This format change will be seen only in how the text is arranged. No other changes are coming in the near-term.

SUMMARY…
A warm front is pushing across southern New England and will introduce a Summer preview for the next few days with a warm and more humid southwesterly flow. A narrow area of unstable air will work into southwestern New England early Tuesday and may reach areas further east later in the day. This will result in some spotty pop up showers and possible thunderstorms. Widespread activity is not likely. This area of instability will shift a little further northwest by Wednesday, resulting in the greatest chance of showers and thunderstorms being over western and northern New England, leaving southeastern areas with much less of a chance to see anything. By Thursday, a weak cold front will try to push into the region, increasing the risk for showers and thunderstorms, though I still don’t feel that widespread activity is likely. A break in the action is expected Friday as narrow high pressure arrives, but this may give way to another front on Saturday with a return of a shower and thunderstorm threat. A bit more of a battle may set up Sunday and Monday as May ends and June begins with high pressure from the north trying to battle more humid air to the south. It remains to be seen how this plays out exactly, other than increasing the chance for unsettled weather which will be reflected in a lower confidence forecast below.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few areas of very light to light rain mainly before midnight. Lows in the middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening, especially northern MA and southern NH. Highs upper 60s to middle 70s South Coast, upper 70s to middle 80s elsewhere. More humid. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog late. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible north central MA and southwestern NH late. Highs in the 70s South Coast, 80s to near 90 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs upper 60s to middle 70s, coolest South Coast.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows 55-60. Highs in the 60s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

Woods Hill Weather Summer Outlook

Back in November, I put forth an outlook for the upcoming Winter, which indicated a mild start and below normal snow for the early part of the season, then more snow, especially in February, but still falling just shy of or barely making the seasonal average in most of the region. Well, the forecast started out ok, but I need not remind you what happened beginning on January 24…

Regardless of success or failure of forecasting, especially in the longer range, we forge onward and try it again and again. It’s just the nature of the science to want to try to get it right, but knowing that failure is going to be a part of the effort. The aim in this is to learn something from each failure and apply it going forward.

So now it’s time to go forward and look ahead at the upcoming Summer of 2015. This will be my fairly non-technical outlook for the months of June, July, and August, otherwise known as “Meteorological Summer”. My intention is to add outlooks for Autumn and Spring as well.

Leading up to Summer…
We’ve seen the pattern transition recently into one that has feature more upper level ridging in the eastern US, allowing above normal temperatures to be more dominant during the month of May. There have been interruptions, especially from the notorious “back-door” cold fronts which introduce cool marine air into at least coastal and eastern portions of New England, and sometimes penetrate much further inland. We’ve also had a couple shots of cool air from Canada, with one such just having visited at the end of last week. During all of this we have been running drier to much drier than average, with up to 5-inch rainfall deficits in southeastern New England and higher fire danger. Only a subtle shift in the overall pattern during the next week may allow for some increase in shower activity, but I’m not seeing a shift to an overall wet pattern as far out as I can see. The main player in this current pattern is El Nino, which is becoming more established after a long wait for it to finally arrive.

June…
The pattern of May continues through mid month with warmer than normal days winning out over cooler than normal ones by about 2 to 1, with interruptions in warmth coming again in the form of a few back-door cold fronts from the Gulf of Maine and a few genuine polar fronts from Canada. Later June is likely to be the warmest, relative to normal, as a high pressure ridge pokes into the Great Lakes and brings frequent warm to hot west to northwest winds. We will have to watch for a couple episodes of northwest flow disturbances which can bring thunderstorms, sometimes strong to severe, in this type of pattern. Despite several shower and storm threats, rainfall is likely to continue below normal.

July…
The warm to hot and mainly dry pattern of late June will persist into early July. After this, the mid Summer version of the pattern of May and the first part of June will likely return, with more variability, but still overall drier than normal conditions and near to slightly above normal temperatures.

August…
A weak mean trough is likely to replace the ridge in the Midwest and Great Lakes while high pressure is a little stronger off the East Coast. For this area we will likely see some transitions between warm to hot and humid weather from the offshore high, and cooler/drier interludes from fronts sent eastward and southeastward from southern Canada and the upper Midwest. Despite these changes, I still feel that the drier than normal trend will be the rule. As always, however, we need to keep an eye on the tropics at this time in the season…

Hurricane Season…
Did somebody mention the tropics? It’s pretty simple this time. El Nino tropical seasons most often result in fewer than average storms. But that doesn’t mean anybody is immune to being impacted by one or more during the season. We’ll have to keep our eyes open, because despite the fact that the season will likely be quieter than normal, the weather pattern will find itself able to deliver storms toward the East Coast, should they occur at just the right time. So we should not let our guard down despite it being an El Nino year. There is also always the chance that the El Nino conditions which tend to limit Atlantic activity could weaken sooner than expected and that could allow for more storm development. This is something to monitor and update as the season gets going.

“Why did you ignore September? It’s still Summer!” I know I know. Fine. September will probably be quite warm, at least to start, with an established drought very possibly ongoing. Will a renegade tropical system help alleviate dryness? Time will tell.

This Week

9:37AM

COMMENTARY / SUMMARY…
Full discussion on next entry. No big changes. Apologies for the abbreviated and belated post that is usually “The Week Ahead”. Format change coming soon anyway. Will post that along with a Summer outlook this evening! THIS MOST IMPORTANT THING today. Remember them all this Memorial Day. We can never repay what they have done for us.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Increasing clouds. Slight chance of very light rain mainly north central MA and southern NH. Highs 60s South Coast, 70s elsewhere. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight risk of very light rain early. Lows 55-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70s South Coast, 80s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs 75-80 South Coast, 80s to around 90 elsewhere.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms late. Lows 65-70. Highs in the 80s, cooler South Coast.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s, cooler South Coast.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s, cooler South Coast.

Memorial Day Weekend Update

7:16AM

SUMMARY…
No major changes at this time. Just making a few adjustments to sky cover in the forecast segments, removing a couple shower chances and adding a new day 7 since well…the old day 7 is now day 6. A full update will be posted later tonight or first thing Monday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60s South Coast, 70s to around 80 elsewhere. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Increasing clouds. Slight chance of very light rain late day mainly north central MA and southern NH. Highs 60s South Coast, 70s elsewhere. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 60-65. Highs 70s South Coast, 80s elsewhere.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs 75-80 South Coast, 80s to around 90 elsewhere.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms late. Lows 65-70. Highs in the 80s, cooler South Coast.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs around 80, cooler South Coast.

Memorial Day Weekend Forecast

7:43PM

COMMENTARY…
Here it is, the opening long weekend to the Summer tourism and recreation season, or at least that’s what popular belief is. Summer may be a few weeks away from its astronomical beginning, but for most people, Summer arrived the moment they freed themselves up for this weekend, if they were lucky enough to do so. There is a built-in dilemma that some people may recognize, regarding the weather, at this time. Most people want great weather for outdoor activity, which means little rain and near or above normal temperatures for this time of year. And this season, after enduring the Winter we had, the desire for such conditions is especially strong among the majority of folks. The dilemma: It’s dry. We need rain. Obviously, no matter what you want for weather, the atmosphere is going to do what it’s going to do. So using that logic, why feel guilty for wanting good weather this weekend? And most of it will be very nice. If that’s the case, then just enjoy it…and be safe!

SUMMARY…
A late shot of very chilly air is heading in on a gusty northwest wind this Friday evening and will make tonight and the early hours of Saturday feel rather cold for late May. A frost threat exists in the valleys especially in the I-495 belt. Most of the region will be protected from frost by an active breeze, which will not allow perfect radiational cooling to set up. Radiational cooling takes place when wind is light or calm and the heat escapes upward. The more dense, cold air stays near the ground and pools in the valleys. A gusty breeze keeps this from happening by keeping the air mixed. Think of a glass of water and oil, which would separate with the more dense water going to the bottom and the less dense oil going to the top. If you keep stirring it with a spoon, it won’t separate so easily. That gusty breeze will continue into the day Saturday, though temperatures will recover to respectable levels after the cold start, and this will occur with 100% sunshine. By Sunday, the high pressure which brought the chill in will sink to the south and a more west to southwest wind will allow for a more significant warm up under a mostly sunny sky. While we are enjoying 2 sunny days, there will be heat and humidity building across the US Southeast and pushing into the Mid Atlantic States. The leading edge of this air mass will approach southern New England on Memorial Day Monday, and the result will be a day that does not stay bright and sunny like the 2 preceding it. Clouds will increase. Though most indications are that it will stay dry, almost any time you have this set up you have to watch for some patches of very light rain at the very least, so keep that in mind. If it were to occur, it would probably be later in the day, as timing looks now. And then comes the genuine Summer preview once the warm front passes. Tuesday through Thursday of next week should resemble July with warm to hot air, more humidity, and a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms, though it is not likely that any widespread beneficial rain will occur, just scattered areas that may get some. Looking way ahead, a cold front may move closer to the region by Friday with perhaps a better shower/t-storm risk.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-40 rural/suburban areas, 40-45 coast/urban areas, exception in sheltered valleys where 30-35 and scattered frost may occur. Wind NW 10-15 MPH with gusts above 20 MPH, but under 10 MPH in sheltered valleys.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s interior, around 50 coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60s South Coast, 70s to around 80 elsewhere. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Increasing clouds. Slight chance of very light rain late day. Highs 60s South Coast, 70s elsewhere. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Variably cloudy with a daily risk of mainly afternoon showers / t-storms. Rain-free most of the time. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs 70s South Coast, 80s to near 90 elsewhere.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.