Tuesday Forecast Update

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5…
No major changes to this forecast except a little more optimistic heading into the holiday weekend.
TODAY: Mostly to partly sunny into afternoon then increasing clouds later. Highs 75-82 but turning cooler in coastal areas during the afternoon. Wind light variable through midday then SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight risk of showers. Lows 60-67. Wind light SE.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning and early afternoon. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms later in the day with possible strong storms. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-67. Highs 78-85.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 58-65. Highs 75-82.
SATURDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Highs 78-85.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 5-9)…
Sunday July 5 looks warm and dry. The early and middle portion of next week looks seasonably warm with a couple shower and thunderstorm opportunities from late on July 6 through early July 9.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 10-14)…
Temperatures are expected to average close to normal with rainfall near to below normal, though opportunities for a few showers and storms with heavy rain will be present between a trough to the west and an offshore high pressure ridge.

Monday Forecast Update

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5…
The primary low pressure area that spawned the secondary low that brought the rain on Sunday will move across the region today with a few showers around this morning otherwise just lots of clouds and a lingering damp and cool feel to the air to start the week, but drier air moves in tonight and Tuesday, and June ends with a fairly nice day Tuesday. However, clouds will return quickly later in the day ahead of an approaching warm front which may bring a few areas of very light rain to the region by night. A cold front will follow on Wednesday, bringing a decent shot at showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong – something to watch. After the potentially stormy start to July, better weather should take over for the following few days, heading into the July 4 weekend, though a front may get closer by later in the weekend to increase the chance of a shower or thunderstorm again.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Areas of drizzle and isolated showers this morning. Highs 68-75, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 53-60, coolest interior valleys. Wind light W.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny into afternoon then increasing clouds later. Highs 75-82 but turning cooler in coastal areas during the afternoon. Wind light variable through midday then SE up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows 60-67. Highs 75-82.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 60-67. Highs 78-85.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 58-65. Highs 75-82.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 4-8)…
Weaker version of trough Great Lakes and Upper Midwest and high pressure off the East Coast, not too strong but there. Temperatures near to above normal. Rainfall near to below normal though still a few episodes of locally heavy showers/thunderstorms possible.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 9-13)…
A continuation of the pattern from the 6-10 day period is expected.

Sunday Forecast Update

12:40PM

No major changes to previous discussion, so right to the forecast for today and next post will have more thoughts on the weather heading through the July 4 Weekend!

THIS AFTERNOON: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle, fog, and rain. Highs in the 60s. Wind E 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A lingering shower mainly northern MA and southern NH early. Patchy fog. Lows 55-60. Wind N diminishing to 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 70-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-60.
TUESDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Chance of showers evening. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a chance of showers. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows in the 60s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the 80s except 70s South Coast.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-85.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 3-7)…
Heading through the holiday weekend, a shower and thunderstorm threat exists at some point on Friday July 3 with mainly dry weather to follow for Saturday and Sunday July 4 & 5. Showers/thunderstorms are possible around July 6-7. Temperatures a little closer to normal during this period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 8-12)…
Temperatures and rainfall should average around normal for this period, with still no heatwaves in sight at this time.

Saturday Forecast Update

11:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 27-JULY 1)…
Low pressure approaches New England from the southwest today, redevelops near Long Island tonight then moves right over southeastern New England on Sunday, in some ways looking a little like a Winter storm in early Summer. This system will bring a bout of drought-denting but not drought-breaking rain, and some significant wind. It’s out of here by early in the week with quieter weather for the last couple days of June, however a warm front approaching later Tuesday may send clouds and a few showers into the region, and a cold front later Wednesday may set off a shower or thunderstorm as we get a taste of warm and humid weather to open the month of July.
THIS AFTERNOON: Increasing and thickening overcast. Highs 70-75 but cooling into the 60s at the coast. Wind light SE to E.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Slight chance of light rain mainly west and northwest of Boston before midnight. Moderate to heavy rain and possible embedded thunderstorms arriving southwest to northeast overnight. Lows 60-65. Wind E increasing to 10-20 MPH, gusting 30 MPH or greater along the coast toward dawn.
SUNDAY: Overcast with rain, heavy in some areas, and a chance of thunderstorms during the morning. Mainly cloudy with areas of drizzle and showers northern MA and southern NH and a few showers but also breaks of sun possible southern MA through RI in the afternoon. Highs 65-70. Wind E 15-25 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH interior and 35-45 MPH coast for a brief time in the morning, becoming variable over southeastern MA then shifting to N and diminishing to 5-15 MPH in all areas by the end of the day.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A lingering shower mainly northern MA and southern NH early. Patchy fog. Lows 55-60. Wind light N shifting to W.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-75.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-60.
TUESDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Chance of showers evening. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with a chance of showers. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows in the 60s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the 80s except 70s South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 2-6)…
Heading through the holiday weekend, except dry and pleasant weather Thursday July 2, a shower risk at some point on Friday July 3, and rain-free most of the time July 4-6 but cannot rule out passing showers or thunderstorms at a few points during that time.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 7-11)…
Looking for near to below normal rainfall and near to above normal temperatures, as previously discussed.

Friday Forecast Update

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 26-30)…
Disturbance passing by this morning brings some showers. A break with high pressure moving in tonight into Saturday then low pressure quickly advances northeastward across southeastern New England Saturday night and Sunday with a bout of wet weather. Some improvement for the last 2 days of the month Monday and Tuesday though by late Tuesday a cold front may bring the threat of a shower or thunderstorm.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning with scattered showers. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 68-73 coast, 73-78 interior. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-60. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 70-75, 60s some coastal areas. Wind light N shifting to E.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving. Lows 58-65.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers afternoon. Highs 70-75.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-60.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-75.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-60.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm late. Highs 75-80, cooler South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 1-5)…
Low pressure trough over the Northeast slowly retrogrades to the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest as a broad area of high pressure builds in the western Atlantic. This pattern means that temperatures will end up closer to seasonal averages. A few rounds of showers and thunderstorms will likely occur with passing disturbances.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 6-10)…
Mean trough hangs back in the Midwest and occasionally Great Lakes with high pressure off the East Coast. Temperatures near to above normal and rainfall near to below normal under this set-up, though any rain that does occur can be in the form of heavy showers and thunderstorms in some locations.

Thursday Forecast Update

2:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 25-29)…
While preparing this discussion and forecast, I was looking over the computer guidance and noting 2 waves of low pressure we have been watching for a couple days, forecast to impact this area one way or another. Of course, the computer forecasts have shifted around a little between a couple days ago and now, and this is far from a surprise, but looking at the set-up reminds me of some of the forecasts we dealt with back in the Winter, as in where will low pressure track? Will it track close enough to give us precipitation? What will the exact track be? etc. … A big difference, it’s late June, and we’re not dealing with precipitation types. An amusing thought as I examined this pattern that reminds me of Winter during the time of year the furthest removed from it we can be. Now don’t misread me here. I’m NOT saying we’re in a Winter-like pattern. Having low pressure track to the south of New England, as it will do tonight and early Friday, is not highly unusual, given we are on the cooler side of the jet stream with a trough over the Northeast at this time. This general pattern will continue, but the next low pressure area that passes through the region this week is destined to not only come closer, but probably track right across southeastern New England on Sunday, bringing brief but significant rain. Again, this will not be a drought-breaking rain situation, as several precipitation events are going to be needed to erase the long-standing deficit. Right now, I’m not seeing any signs of significant rain events lining up and occurring in succession, so the drought will continue. As we get by the weekend threat and head into the start of the July 4 week and the final couple days of June, we’ll catch a break from the rain but it will remain on the cooler side of normal.
TODAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 72-77 coast, 78-83 interior. Wind light NW becoming locally onshore near the coast.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of light rain mainly south of the Mass Pike for a few hours late evening into overnight. Lows 55-60. Wind light E.
FRIDAY: Decreasing clouds morning. Sunny afternoon. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior. Wind light E shifting to N.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-60.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 70-75.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving overnight. Lows 60-65.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain morning. Partly sunny with a chance of showers afternoon. Highs 70-75.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-60.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-75.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 30-JULY 4)…
Low pressure trough over the Northeast slowly retrogrades to the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest as a broad area of high pressure builds in the western Atlantic. This will allow temperatures to trend from below to near normal during this time, though there will still be a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms with passing disturbances. Timing will be critical as many will be on vacation and have outdoor plans heading toward and including July 4.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 5-9)…
Current trends suggest the pattern that becomes established in the first few days of July will continue during this period as well with episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms but overall rainfall near to below normal, and variable temperatures averaging out close to seasonal normals for early July.

Wednesday Forecast Update

7:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (THROUGH SUNDAY)…
With the severe weather threat behind us now, going forward there are no changes to the previous discussion on the upcoming pattern for the remainder of this week, so right to the forecast we go!
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 80-85, cooler some coastal areas. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-60, cooler some interior valleys. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs in the 70s. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain, especially southern areas. Lows 55-60. Wind light E.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain morning. Clearing afternoon. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 interior. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny AM. Increasing clouds PM. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 29-JULY 3)…
Shower risk Monday June 29. Dry Tuesday June 30. A couple shower and thunderstorm threats July 1-3 but rain-free most of the time. Temperatures below normal recovering toward normal later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 4-8)…
A couple shower and thunderstorm threats with passing fronts but rainfall near to below normal overall. Temperatures near normal overall but still somewhat variable.

Tuesday Forecast Update

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5…
Let’s keep it simple. Today’s severe weather threat comes down to timing and amount of sunshine. Ingredients will be in place. Lots of clouds along the leading edge of warm and more humid air will limit sun for a time mid morning into midday especially the further north you are. A shower may even survive into southern NH and northern MA briefly. This area will be eroding, however, and the amount of sunshine between this and the approaching cold front will dictate how unstable that atmosphere becomes and be the key factor in the development of thunderstorms and how far east they are able to survive, and the potential they have to become severe. Also, wind direction will be another key. A more southerly wind will limit storms the further south and east you are in southern New England. A more southwesterly to westerly wind will allow storms to survive longer. Storm threat window of time is 2PM to 8PM west to east. Will narrow this down in comments below as the day goes on. Looking ahead, great weather Wednesday. Clouds return later Thursday. End of week looks cooler and somewhat unsettled, but not sure of timing and how far north rain gets from low pressure to the south of the region.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. A shower possible northern MA or southern NH this morning. Showers/thunderstorms likely mid afternoon through early evening. Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in some areas including damaging winds and possible large hail. Brief torrential rain and frequent lightning possible. Highs 70s South Coast, 80s elsewhere. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain especially south. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs around 70.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 28-JULY 2)…
Trough over the region means periods of unsettled weather and below normal temperatures. Most likely wet days later Sunday June 28 into Monday June 29, with a couple more shower threats following this in the June 30 to July 2 period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 3-7)…
Slow transition to warmer and drier weather is still expected.

Monday Forecast Update

7:30AM

DAYS 1-5…
TODAY: Low clouds and areas of fog break during the morning. Partly sunny with isolated showers afternoon. Highs 70s coast, 80-85 interior. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. A more organized line of storms may form and move across parts of the region late. Strong to severe storms possible. Highs 70s South Coast, 80s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 55-60. Highs 75-85, coolest Cape Cod.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain or showers. Lows 55-60. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 27-JULY 1)…
Fair but cool Saturday June 27. Clouds return Sunday June 28 with rain possible by the end of the day. Unsettled and cool transitioning to warmer and drier weather between June 29 and July 1.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 2-6)…
Temperatures near to above normal as high pressure builds off the East Coast while a trough sits over the Great Lakes. Rainfall variable but near to below normal overall. Can’t rule out some locally heavy thunderstorms on a few days.

Paying The “Bill” / Sunday Update

2:49AM

COMMENTARY…
Drought-breaking rain? Not really. The US Drought Monitor, released every Thursday, places the entirety of southern New England in either “abnormally dry” or “moderate drought”, and this is a result of a precipitation deficit of 4 to as many as 10 inches over a period of many months. A 1 to 3 inch rain event in one day does not erase a drought. It takes several significant rain events over a period of time, and preferably ones that don’t come down so quickly that the majority of the water runs off into the storm drains. As the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill come across and soak the region for a good part of Sunday, we’re not really paying a water bill, so to speak, but we’re paying with likely having to give up part of Father’s Day to Mother Nature, who had other plans than the ones you likely had. Will any of the day be salvaged for outside activity? Read on…

DAYS 1-5…
Low pressure tracks right across southeastern New England through mid afternoon today with widespread showers including some areas of very heavy rain and possible thunder. Watch for areas of street flooding during and shortly after the heaviest rain. Do not be surprised if rain suddenly ends, clouds break, and we even see some sunshine before the afternoon is over, as the remains of Bill move away from west to east. The air will be quite humid, with a tropical feel. A cold front pushing through the region in the evening may set off an additional shower or thunderstorm. A small bubble of high pressure will bring fair weather Monday before low pressure passes north of southern New England Tuesday, first dragging a warm front through in the morning then a cold front in the afternoon. The warn front may produce brief light rain, and the cold front may set off a band of showers and thunderstorms. The timing of that front will be critical in determining the extent and intensity of any showers and thunderstorms. There will be some potential for strong storms so this will be monitored. High pressure brings another nice day Wednesday. This high will push off to the east and northeast of New England during Thursday as low pressure approaches from the southwest, delivering more cloudiness.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy through mid afternoon with numerous showers, some heavy, and possible thunder. Breaking clouds and possible sun later afternoon west to east. Humid. Highs 65-70 South Coast, 70s elsewhere. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm before midnight. Lows 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.
MONDAY: Sun & cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of light rain AM. Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms PM. Lows 60-65. Highs 75-85, coolest South Coast.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Lows 55-60. Highs 75-80.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-60. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 26-30)…
Look for wet and cool weather episodes June 26 and sometime in the June 28-29 time frame. For this 5-day period, rainfall will average near to above normal with temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 1-5)…
Change the month / change the pattern? Perhaps. There are signs that the jet stream may try to life a little or at least become more zonal with weaker disturbances, mostly dry weather, and overall warmer temperatures during this period.