Wednesday Forecast Update

12:52AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 30-OCTOBER 4)…
A lot to cover because in comparison to recent weather, it’s an action-packed 5 days ahead. Now a word of caution: Don’t misread what I say here. My approach is always to take a step back and see what I am most certain of, explain it as best I can, and separate that from what I’m not sure of and lay out the scenarios or tell you what I think is most likely to happen regarding that. I’m also not going to hide from the fact that this week’s pattern is far different than what I was calling for during last week for this week. But that’s weather. A couple missed details and your entire medium range forecast is finished. But this is why we update this blog every day. Things change sometimes, and this time they did. So enough primer. Let’s get to the actual paint job then see what may need another coat or 2 later. A cold front will settle southeastward across southern New England during today, creating its own lift as it pushes a warm and muggy air mass out of the region. This lift will be enhanced today by a low pressure area moving up from the Mid Atlantic into southern New England just ahead of the front, and finally linking up with it before exiting. This low will send some downpours through the region during the morning and midday with a few additional downpours possibly trailing behind the departing low later. I think this moves quickly enough that the most common rain amounts will be in the 1 to 2 inch range. Spotty higher amounts are possible, especially northwest of Boston during the morning and possibly over far southeastern MA later in the day as the front finally makes it to that area. And then comes a bit of a break as the front sits offshore and high pressure builds across southeastern Canada. This high will be rather large and sprawling, not close enough to push it’s clear, dry air in, but enough to create a moderate to strong north to northeast air flow across all of New England Thursday and Friday. The impact from this will be large waves and rough surf along the coast, especially north-facing and east-facing shores, where coastal flooding is possible during high tide times. Additionally, it appears that the front that comes through today and sits offshore through Thursday may bend back westward across the region during Friday, sending more rain into the region from east to west. It may move far enough westward to leave us in a lull for much of Saturday. All the while the high will continue to be stretched out to the north of the region and he wind will turn more easterly on Saturday. Now, while all of this is going on, we’ll be keeping an eye on Joaquin, a tropical storm as of this writing but forecast to become a category 1 to 2 hurricane as it mills around east of the Bahamas through Thursday. It’s what happens with it after that which is the big question. The scenarios are wide-ranging, but I can see the most likely one at this time being one in which the storm is drawn northward starting on Friday and continuing through early Sunday before it takes a turn to the northwest and possibly makes a landfall later Sunday somewhere in the Middle Atlantic. It is important to note and remember that this is just one scenario, the one I feel is most likely, but far from a certainty. A set-up like this would send an area of significant rain northward into southern New England later Sunday. Though we would not see the strongest winds from the actual storm in this scenario, with high pressure still holding on to the north, there would be some significant wind between it and the storm system. So now to simplify all this into a detailed forecast…
TODAY: Cloudy. Numerous to widespread showers in the morning becoming numerous to scattered during the afternoon. Some heavy rain. Chance of thunder with some of the downpours. Humid. Temperatures steady in the 60s may fall into the 50s west and north of Boston by late. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH shifting to N from west to east across the region.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. A few showers. Areas of fog. Lows 50-55. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Areas of fog. Highs 55-60. Wind N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Temperatures in the 50s. Gusty NE wind.
SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy. Slight risk of showers and patchy drizzle. Temperatures rise into the 60s. Gusty E wind.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain arrives south to north, may become heavy late. Temperatures in the 60s. Windy.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 5-9)…
Based on current thinking, the remains of Joaquin in the form of broad low pressure would track northeastward from the northern Mid Atlantic through New England with additional showers and wind Monday October 5, diminishing as the low exits Tuesday October 6, followed by dry and breezy weather October 7-8 with a warm up by October 9.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 10-14)…
Showers possible early in the period followed by a return to dry weather. Temperatures near to above normal.

Tuesday Forecast Update

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 29-OCTOBER 3)…
A big change the next several days from what we have been seeing. I struggled with this forecast because some of the scenarios on the computer models were shown similarly during the dry stretch and of course they did not pan out. But this time at the very least we’re going to be much wetter for the remainder of this week than we were during much of the month of September. First we have a cold front slowly pushing eastward today with scattered showers around, but heavier activity developing tonight as tropical moisture streams north northeastward along the front as it passes.This front will barely get offshore Wednesday and then may eventually come back westward somewhat later in the week. For now it looks like the heaviest rainfall will occur Wednesday with just periods of showers or rain Thursday and Friday. Everything may push westward enough Saturday to take us out of the main rain threat for that day. All the while we’ll be watching Tropical Storm Joaquin which will mill around off the East Coast and eventually start moving northward. Its eventual track is still somewhat in question…
TODAY: Areas of fog and drizzle morning. Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Humid. Highs in the 70s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers becoming more likely and locally heavy. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers/rain, heavy at times. Chance of thunder. Local flooding probable. Areas of fog. Humid. Temperatures steady in the 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: Periods of rain. Lows 45-55. Highs 55-65.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of shower. Lows in the 50s. Highs 65-75.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 4-8)…
Best guess is that Joaquin ends up tracking into the northern Mid Atlantic about Sunday and sending an area of significant rain northward into southern New England along with some wind. The remainder of the period should be drier with temperatures near to above normal

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 9-13)…
Back to the pattern of below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures.

Monday Forecast Update

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 28-OCTOBER 2)…
High pressure finally slips off to the south and east through Tuesday as a cold front approaches form the west. At the same time a tropical depression has formed over the western Atlantic, east of the East Coast of the US, and will send some moisture into the Northeast via a frontal system that will be moving in from the west. The timing may be just so that we get some beneficial rain Tuesday night and Wednesday from this combination. After this it should move offshore just enough for a cooler and windy start to October.
TODAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Chance of a few showers in southeastern MA and RI this afternoon. Highs in the 70s. More humid. Wind light variable early then SW increasing to 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers during the day becoming more likely evening and night. Humid. Highs in the 70s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures fall into the 50s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)…
Dry October 3, wet October 4 as another low arrives, and also on the cool side. Drier and eventually milder October 5-7.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 8-12)…
A few episodes of showers mid to late period. Temperatures near to above normal.

Sunday Forecast Update

8:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 27-OCTOBER 1)…
Not a whole lot of change to the previous forecast. A great day today and a decent night to view a total lunar eclipse tonight which begins at 9:07PM and ends at 12:27AM (Monday) with totality beginning at 10:11PM and ending at 11:23PM. This is also being termed a “Super Moon Eclipse” because the moon is as close to the Earth as it gets all year (technical term is Perigee) and will appear slightly larger than average, and also a “blood moon” as the moon will not blacken out of view but appear a darker red during totality. Moisture from the south Monday and a cold front from the west Tuesday to early Wednesday may produce a few shower episodes but not looking for beneficial rainfall.
High pressure presses toward the region from the west Wednesday, with cooler and drier weather into Thursday, but still not sure how much complete clearing there will be as clouds may hang around with the front not far offshore. So far expecting any additional rain to occur over the ocean.
TODAY: Sunshine. Highs around 70. Wind light SE to S.
TONIGHT: Mainly clear with a few high clouds evening then increasing cloudiness overnight. Eclipsed moon will be visible (see above). Lows in the 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light showers. Highs in the 70s. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 45-55. Highs in the 60s.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 2-6)…
Cool and breezy with lots of clouds October 2 but rain should remain offshore. Still may need to watch low pressure offshore October 3-4 but leaning toward a dry scenario for this area over the weekend. Fair and warming up October 5-6.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 7-11)…
Look for showers and mild conditions early in the period, briefly cooler with dry weather returning mid period, then a warming trend later in the period with continued mainly dry weather.

Saturday Forecast Update

8:30AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)…
This portion of the forecast is brought to you by the final 5 days of September! And during these 5 days we will see a little variety but the continuation of a dry weather pattern. High pressure dominates the weekend with stellar conditions and even though low pressure starts to spread some high, thin clouds into southern New England on Sunday night I am optimistic that the sky will remain clear enough for a good to excellent view of the total lunar eclipse which begins at 9:07PM and ends at 12:27AM (Monday) with totality beginning at 10:11PM into the 11PM hour. This is also being termed a “Super Moon Eclipse” because the moon is as close to the Earth as it gets all year and will appear slightly larger than average, and also a “blood moon” as the moon will not blacken out of view but appear a darker red during totality. After graciously waiting until the celestial event concludes, cloudiness will advance ahead of low pressure to the south of the region, which will track northeastward and pass well southeast of the area by early Tuesday. Though this system may toss some shower activity into parts of southern New England, it will be light, spotty, and non-beneficial. A cold front, which on earlier forecasts I had timed for Wednesday, appears that it will make haste enough to pass through late Tuesday, preceded by warm air and a slight risk of showers. This system will also not be a beneficial rain-maker. High pressure presses toward the region from the west Wednesday, with cooler and drier weather.
TODAY: Sunshine and a few high clouds. Highs in the 60s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mainly clear with a bright nearly-full moon. Lows in the 40s. Wind light E.
SUNDAY: Sunshine and a few high clouds. Highs in the 70s. Wind light SE to S.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mainly clear with a few high clouds evening then increasing cloudiness overnight. Eclipsed moon will be visible (see above). Lows in the 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light showers. Highs in the 70s. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 45-55. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 1-5)…
As October arrives, a cooler shot of air is expected the first few days. Low pressure forming on a front offshore will likely be close enough for some cloudiness October 1-2 and possibly a cool, gusty wind on October 2 and even into October 3 as the low moves away and high pressure builds in. High pressure will build overhead then to the east with fair and warming weather October 4-5.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 6-10)…
Look for showers and mild conditions early in the period, briefly cooler with dry weather returning mid period, then a warming trend later in the period with continued mainly dry weather.

Friday Forecast Update

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)…
High pressure dominates the next 3 days with very nice weather. Will write soon on the down side to the dry weather as well as the upcoming lunar eclipse. Low pressure to the south will push some cloudiness into the region by Monday and perhaps some shower activity Monday night and part of Tuesday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 64-72. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Diminishing NE wind.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind light E.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs 65-73.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 30-OCTOBER 4)…
Cold front approaches from the west September 30 which will be a warmer day with a shower threat. Uncertainty for the first several days of October as the front slows offshore and low pressure tries to form to the south. Not expecting a whole lot of rain during this period but the amount of sunshine each day is in question this far in advance. Temperatures during this period will run near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 5-9)…
Overall pattern will remain drier and warmer than normal but a couple shower episodes and air mass changes are likely.

Thursday Forecast Update

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)…
Cold front quietly slips north to south through the region today and this evening bringing some clouds, but no threat of any rain. High pressure builds out of Canada again Friday through the weekend with dry weather. Low pressure to the south may push some cloudiness into the region by Monday, but for now it appears all rain with this system will stay south at least through that time.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind NW shifting to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 45-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 64-72. wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 39-47. Highs in the 60s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs 65-73.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 29-OCTOBER 3)…
Low pressure from the south still may bring some showers into the region September 29 before a cold front from the west brings a shower threat September 30. High pressure builds in with dry and cooler weather for the early days of October, but there is some uncertainty in timing and if another system will try to come along sometime these days.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 4-8)…
Overall pattern will remain drier and warmer than normal.

Wednesday Forecast Update

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)…
One high pressure area today gives way to a new one from the north Friday into the weekend, with only a weak cold front passing by on Thursday between the two of them, noticeable only by a few clouds and a wind shift. We’ll be talking more soon about the expected sky conditions for a total lunar eclipse on Sunday night.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 46-53. Wind light NW.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind NW shifting to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 45-53. Highs 64-72.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 39-47. Highs in the 60s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs 65-73.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 28-OCTOBER 2)…
Low pressure from the south may get close enough for cloudiness later September 28 and possibly some wet weather September 29, but this is uncertain. Cold front from the west may bring a few showers September 30. High pressure builds in with dry and cooler weather to start October, based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 3-7)…
A system brings a shower risk early to mid period then back to dry weather. Temperatures mostly above normal.

Tuesday Forecast Update

7:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)…
No significant changes to previous discussion.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 65-72. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Highs 67-74.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Highs 65-72.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 43-51. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 27-OCTOBER 1)…
High pressure hangs on early period, may get pushed northward mid period by low pressure to the south but still leaning toward dry weather, then high pressure re-strengthens and moves southward over the region later in the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 2-6)…
High pressure gives way a little bit to some disturbances with a slightly better risk of showers at times. Temperatures near to above normal.

Monday Forecast Update

2:04AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)…
Other than low pressure to the south getting close enough for some cloudiness Tuesday, high pressure will be in control of the weather during this period. It will be on the cooler side to start the week as the first high builds down from Canada, warmer midweek as the high settles more to the south, then cooler again to end the work week as a dry front passes and opens the door for another high from Canada.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 65-72. Wind E 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 45-52. Highs 68-75.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Highs 70-78.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Highs 65-72.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)…
High pressure moves down from the north then builds over the region, finally sinking to the south later in the period as the cycle repeats with a new high in Canada ready to move in by period’s end. Cool nights and mild days will dominate the early part of the period followed by a warming trend.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 1-5)…
Yet another high builds in with more dry weather for the first few days of the period then finally a risk of some shower activity later in the period. Temperatures near to mostly above normal.