Thursday Forecast

2:48AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 31-JANUARY 4)…
For this final day of 2015 we’ll see a thawing of the foggy refrigerator that much of the region from the Boston area west and north became during the last couple days as a couple low pressure areas passed by with some cold air trapped near the surface. Today, we’ll see a drier westerly wind develop and temperatures will climb into the 40s, melting or softening much of the ice so it can be removed if it does not remove itself. The first 4 days of 2016 will see a trend toward colder weather. Some snow showers may be around Sunday from a cold front and Monday from a northeasterly flow off the ocean.
TODAY: Any early rain departs Cape Cod & Islands. Early areas of fog. Clouds to start, then more sun. Highs 40-46. Wind variable becoming W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THIS EVENING: Partly cloudy. Temperatures fall into 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH. Wind chill in the 20s.
MIDNIGHT: Mostly clear. Temperatures 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill in the 20s.
OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-30. Wind W under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered snow showers, favoring eastern MA. Temperatures fall into the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 5-9)…
Fair and cold January 5. Fair and milder January 6-7. Risk of rain or snow January 8. Fair and colder January 9.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 10-14)…
Fair and cold to start the period, then a risk of unsettled weather and moderating temperatures mid period. Fair and colder weather to follow that.

Wednesday Forecast

5:01AM

First, a brief look back at the messy little storm of Tuesday. Though the overall amounts of snow/sleet were close to forecast, the temperatures had me fooled. I should have thought a little more about the possibility of the secondary low to the south being strong enough to pull cold air southward but weak enough so that the result wasn’t a stronger east wind warming the lower atmosphere more than it did. So, icy ground was more common than I had expected and will continue into today for parts of the region as it is slow to warm.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 30-JANUARY 3)…
A weak low pressure system will approach from the southwest today as very weak high pressure sits to the north of the region. Some light rain may be around tonight, and may freeze on surfaces in lower elevations of interior southern NH and north central MA. It turns a little milder for New Year’s Eve with any early rain exiting southeastern areas and a mix of clouds/sun for the day. Fair weather and temperatures dropping through the 30s is expected for the nighttime festivities. It may be a little breezy but overall it will be quite nice compared to how cold it can be. The people won’t freeze, and the ice sculptures won’t melt. When we get to New Year’s Day itself, look for a pleasant but chilly day, perfect for outdoor hockey, and it just so happens that a match up between the Boston Bruins and Montreal Canadiens will take place that afternoon in the NHL Winter Classic at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro! Once we get to New Year’s Weekend, look for a trend toward colder weather. A disturbance may result in snow showers by Sunday.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 35-40 except 40-45 Cape Cod. Light wind.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Risk of rain mainly 9PM-3AM except freezing rain pockets in southern NH and interior MA. Lows 30-37. Light wind.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with a risk of rain early Cape Cod. Clearing afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind light variable early becoming W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Mostly clear. Evening temperatures falling into 30s. Overnight lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
FRIDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 4-8)…
A couple shots of colder air bring overall temperatures close to seasonal normals during this period, though they will be variable day to day, with mainly dry weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 9-13)…
May have to watch for a storm system later in the period after it starts out mainly dry and chilly.

Tuesday Forecast

2:56AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 29-JANUARY 2)…
Unsettled as expected today with a mix of precipitation, a break early Wednesday then a second wave of lighter precipitation coming as rain Wednesday night lingering into early Thursday to the southeast of Boston then a mainly dry remainder of New Year’s Eve. The first couple days of 2016 will feature fair and somewhat colder weather.
EARLY MORNING: Overcast with snow/sleet northwest of Boston, sleet/rain Boston and southern suburbs, rain to the southeast including Cape Cod, with accumulation of snow/sleet up to 2 inches I-495 belt north of the Mass Pike, up to 1 inch in the I-95 belt north of the Mass Pike, with trace amounts just to the south and east. Temperatures steady 25-30 interior southern NH to north central and interior northeastern MA, 30s elsewhere. Wind light NE in areas where precipitation is frozen and E 5-15 MPH elsewhere.
LATE MORNING: Overcast. Sleet/rain northern areas, rain elsewhere but pockets of freezing rain especially valley locations in interior northeastern to north central MA and southern NH. Temperatures in the 30s, coldest to the north and west of Boston. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
AFTERNOON: Cloudy. Rain becoming spotty. Highs 35-42. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts Cape Cod.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light drizzle or freezing drizzle. Lows 28-35. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Mostly cloudy early with a chance of rain Cape Cod. Partly sunny midday and afternoon. Partly cloudy evening and night. Early morning lows 30-37. Daytime highs in the 40s. Evening to late night temperatures falling through the 30s.
FRIDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs around 40.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 3-7)…
A few snow showers with a disturbance January 3. Fair and cold January 4-5, milder January 6-7.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 8-12)…
Unsettled weather possibly early and again late in the period as the southern storm track becomes a little more active but probably keeps most of its energy south of southern New England while air mass changes are driven by the northern jet stream making for variable but mostly near normal temperatures.

Monday Forecast

7:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 28-JANUARY 1)…
Cold air settles in today with fair and windy weather as high pressure builds to the north of New England. Low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes and redevelops near the New England South Coast Tuesday bringing a period of precipitation, starting as a snow to sleet transition then eventually to rain before ending. The longest period of frozen precipitation will be north of Boston where some minor accumulation is likely, but overall warm air from the ocean and above normal ocean water temperatures will be too influential and the rain wins out. In addition, dry air working in from the west will shut off the making of precipitation by later Tuesday afternoon and only low level moisture will be available for additional rain/drizzle, where it will be far too mild for any frozen precipitation. A brief break early Wednesday before a second wave of low pressure brings brief rain late Wednesday. A drier and cooler trend arrives for the final day of 2015 and the opening day of 2016.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind N 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Snow/sleet developing before dawn, rapidly mixing with rain near the coast, and probably starting as a mix and going right to rain closer to the South Coast and Cape Cod. Lows in the 20s southern NH and northern MA and 30s elsewhere. Wind light E.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow/sleet north and west, sleet/rain south, transitioning to all rain then tapering off later to light rain/drizzle. Areas of fog. Snow/sleet of a trace to 1 inch mainly Boston area west and north with around 2 inches possible Merrimack Valley into southern NH away from the coast. Highs 35-43. Wind SE 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain at night. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
THURSDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Partly sunny. Temperatures steady in the 40s.
FRIDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs 35-45.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 2-6)…
A pattern change brings seasonably cold to slightly above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather during the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 7-11)…
A continuation of a seasonably chilly to slightly milder than normal pattern with again mainly dry weather as southern jet stream energy likely remains too far to the south for impact and northern jet stream energy remains fairly weak with no more than a couple very light precipitation events.

Sunday Forecast

9:57AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 27-31)…
This portion of the forecast covers the final 5 days of 2015, and they will feature changing weather. Today, the rain/drizzle that was around overnight and in scattered form into the morning is ending, and the wavy front responsible is lifting a little to the north to allow the northern limits of a very warm air mass into the region. We won’t get nearly as warm as what was experienced on Christmas Eve, as we’re near the border of colder air just to the north and we’ll keep a fair amount of cloudiness. In addition, the gusty southerly wind that was available to transport the warmth in will not really be there either. As this front slips back to the south, it may generate another rain shower later today in some locations, but overnight and Monday we’ll finally feel a seasonably cold air mass arrive. In true New England fashion, we’ll run a storm system into this cold air Tuesday, resulting in a complex precipitation setup. Now, this won’t be as big a deal as many of our Winter storms can be around here, as it will be a fairly quick-moving system and we’ll have a warm ocean, warming upper levels, and warm ground temperatures combating any snow/sleet that does occur. Eventually the entire forecast area will end up as plain rain. But before that happens, there will be a good risk of some slick travel conditions with some accumulation, especially away from the coast and the further north you are. Also, since we have not seen these conditions in any form whatsoever for a long time, the “first-time-in-a-long-time impact” will be enhanced. Again, at this point, I’m not 100% sure of how this plays out, but will give it my best shot below in the forecast and then put expected snow amounts on the next update. Another weaker wave of low pressure will come along and deliver light rain late Wednesday and early Thursday, but this will move away and allow the final hours of 2015 on Thursday to be dry.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty drizzle and areas of light fog through midday. Isolated rain showers late. Highs from around 50 in southern NH to around 60 RI and southern MA. Wind light variable, becoming mostly S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 25-30 interior, 30-35 coast. Wind shifting to N and increasing to 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind N 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain likely. Lows 20s to lower 30s. Highs 30s to lower 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain at night. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
THURSDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Mostly cloudy with light rain AM. Variably cloudy PM. Temperatures steady in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 1-5)…
A pattern change brings seasonably cold to slightly above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather for the first several days of 2016. May have to watch an offshore storm around January 4 but early indications are that that activity will be too far away to have impact.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 6-10)…
A continuation of a seasonably chilly to slightly milder than normal pattern with again mainly dry weather as southern jet stream energy likely remains too far to the south for impact and northern jet stream energy remains fairly weak with no more than a couple very light precipitation events.

Saturday Forecast

9:17AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 26-30)…
Though not as anomalously warm as Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, we’ll have a mild weekend interrupted by some wet weather later tonight and early Sunday as a wave of low pressure crosses the region. Behind this, a surge of cold air arrives for Monday and sets up a little bit of a complication for the next storm system, arriving Tuesday. Though some of the computer guidance has been painting this as a possible good snow producer, their limitations are revealing themselves. A little further analysis indicates that there is going to be a strong push of warm air aloft in an already mild overall atmosphere with most of the cold air near the surface. This eventually will be scoured out as well, resulting in a storm that starts Tuesday morning as snow or mix near the coast and snow inland, then transitions to rain coast and mix inland and finally rain all areas before ending at night. Also, I’m not expecting a tremendous amount of precipitation with this system either – light to moderate amounts, the majority falling as mix/rain. However, with just enough uncertainty in place and the timing not a complete lock, I’ll wait until Monday morning’s update to call any certain accumulations of snow. Just note that there is a probability that parts of the region may have a messy commute Tuesday, and the details will be fine tuned in the next couple of days. Behind this system will be a break Wednesday as a small area of high pressure tries to move in but a frontal boundary stays near. A wave of low pressure will approach returning the risk of light precipitation, probably rain, at night.
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 47-54. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain after 9PM. Lows 38-45. Wind light E.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of light rain in the morning. Isolated rain showers late. Highs in the 50s.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain likely. Lows 20s to lower 30s. Highs 30s to lower 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain at night. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 31-JANUARY 4)…
A weak system brings light rain/mix early Thursday then a drying trend for the final hours of 2015. Generally dry weather and a more seasonably chilly feel for the first few days of 2016.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 5-9)…
Mainly dry weather expected with temperatures near to slightly above normal during this period. There may be a few rain and/or snow showers with air mass changes from a couple of frontal systems.

Friday Forecast

9:23AM

Merry Christmas!

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 25-29)…
Small bubble of high pressure brings fair and mild weather for Christmas Day today. It will be very pleasant if you are traveling about or taking a nice holiday walk! The weather then starts to undergo a more significant change, first starting with a weekend that turns a little more unsettled as a wave of low pressure brings a risk of some rain later Saturday to early Sunday. Then, a push of much colder air, relative to what we’ve seen, arrives by Sunday night and Monday. Finally, a storm system arrives from the west on Tuesday and brings the first significant threat of frozen precipitation this season. Being 4 days away from the issuance of this blog update, it’s simply too early to try to pin point precipitation types and amounts. That will be brought into focus during the weekend updates…
TODAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Sun filtered by high clouds. Highs 55-63. Wind W to variable 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-43. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 47-54. Wind light SE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 38-45. Wind light SE to S.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Risk of light rain early. Isolated rain showers late. Highs in the 50s.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain likely. Lows 20s to lower 30s. Highs 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 30-JANUARY 3)…
A break December 30 after the system from the previous day moves away. A weak system may bring light precipitation for part of December 31. Looking for mainly dry weather and a more seasonable chill to start 2016.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 4-8)…
Mainly dry weather expected with temperatures near to slightly above normal during this period.

Thursday Forecast

AN EDITORIAL POST APPEARS BEFORE THIS ONE

2:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 24-28)…
A very strong warm push of air has arrived and this will make for records on this Christmas Eve. A cold front will move into the region this evening, but the front will be weakening and only make a sluggish push offshore by Christmas Morning, taking temperatures down a few notches but leaving them still significantly above average for Christmas Day. A wave of low pressure on this front will bring unsettled weather back for a portion of the weekend before the front is driven south and cold air arrives from Canada by Monday.
TODAY: Starting overcast with patchy fog, areas of drizzle, and isolated rain showers. Eventual breaking clouds with partial sun possible, but still a risk of isolated rain showers. Rather humid. Record warmth – highs 60-72, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
CHRISTMAS EVE: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain showers mainly south central MA to RI early. Lows 45-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind W to variable 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of light rain at night. Lows 35-45. Highs 45-55.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Risk of light rain early. Isolated rain showers late. Lows 35-45. Highs in the 50s.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 29-JANUARY 2)…
Low pressure is likely to bring unsettled weather December 29. Current timing likely means that inland areas may start as mix/snow with no more than brief mix coast before the system produces mainly rain. Lots of cloudiness may linger December 30-31 as a front is nearby, but any precipitation, likely light rain, should be limited if it occurs at all. Fair and colder weather is expected for the first couple days of 2016.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 3-7)…
Still leaning toward a pattern of more seasonably chilly and mainly dry weather for the early days of January 2016.

The Thing Most Wrong With Weather Is How It’s Being Reported

A brief editorial…

So here we are – Christmas Eve. The well-advertised warmth has arrived and the all-too-familiar allusion to the unprecedented has been slathered all over TV, radio, and internet news by the media. To some degree, they are correct. We’ll set records today. It will be the warmest December 24 on record for many locations around southern England. And it’s no wonder, given the state of the pattern and the current phase of ENSO and MJO. It was only a matter of time before something came together to give a record warm push of air. Well here it is. It just happens to fall on Christmas Eve, which somehow gives it some extra power or meaning, according to media. And the general public starts to fall for such news, predictably. It’s all too common these days for the sensationalism to act as education, instead of meteorological reason and experience, communicated responsibly. I fight a losing battle in trying to accomplish the latter, but nevertheless will continue to practice this as long as I can do so.

Some areas may reach 70 degrees on this Christmas Eve afternoon, some 30 degrees above the average high around 40 for this area. These days, such an event has become a trigger of quiet panic for various reasons. We’ve even heard comparisons to July 4, in which some areas topped out in the lower 70s, some…. 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the average. Such an extreme! (Yes, it’s sarcasm.) I’m not really sure how many times I have to remind people how we arrive at averages, and that this averages are over 30-year periods, a relative blink of an eye in our weather history. This shows you that the variability is there, and it should come as no surprise, given all that drives weather on this planet. We’ll leave out the atmospheric dynamics lesson for now, and just focus on a couple more comparisons, such as the July 4 in 1978 when much of the region was locked in the very chilly 50s during the passage of an “unusual” Northeaster with wind and rain. 50s. July 4. Some 30 degrees off the “what it should be” temperature. That “what it should be phrase” should be WIPED OUT from all media. There is NO SUCH THING. What it should be is whatever the weather pattern dictates. If the temperatures landed on the average every day, THEN I’d worry that something was really wrong. The fact that it does not indicates that the weather machine that is also known as our atmosphere is working just as it should. That’s a good thing, believe me. Let’s reach back into history and pull up another comparison. Since we’re at Christmas, and staring a near 70 in the face today and near 60 tomorrow, keep this fact in mind. Just last year, Christmas Day was near 60 in many areas. Rewind back to 1983, when we saw daytime temperatures below 10 in many areas, or 1980, when the high temperature during the daylight hours failed to rise above ZERO in many locations, oh…some 40 degrees away from “what it should be”. And before you think “well all the cold around here was before and all the warm is now”, that is not true either. After all, have we forgotten last February already? Or March the year before, during the endless Winter of the “Polar Vortex”? You know that “new” and “scary” phenomenon that we never saw before (even though its been around longer than we have). Surely we do not have such short memories. Or then perhaps it’s just not really our fault. After all, there is only so much you can retain when the stream of media clutter is as constant as it is. And it’s not only the mainstream media. You now have virtually everybody with the ability to pull up computer models, that are meant to be interpreted by meteorologists, making home-forecasts out to weeks in advance, hungry to be the first to say something with a wow-factor. And the easily availability of such information means that someone catches a highlight or a story from a source having no business releasing it, and suddenly it’s a big weather story. Yes, a 15 year old weather geek can cause large scale worry by posting from their bedroom on their social media site a wishcast or snowfall output from whatever model has the most snow 10 or 15 days in advance from a potential storm, probably while they should be doing their English homework and learning how to actually write and communicate. Sad but true. We don’t need these spoiling pieces of information floating around the net, but it seems like an elusive little pest that just manages to survive. We don’t need this. We need real information from real sources.

Just the facts, please. Just the facts.

Wednesday Forecast

4:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 23-27)…
The warmth has been the story of December 2015, and will continue to be front and center for the next few days, which includes what will be a record warm Christmas Eve and a very mild Christmas Day too. Before that, a warm front will push northward toward the region today, bringing additional rain. Some of this rain may be heavy, impacting the evening commute and shopping trips. This rain will lead the warmest push into the region tonight and Thursday (Christmas Eve). Does someone see a 70 degree high on Thursday. Most areas will likely remain below that, but it is not out of the question entirely. In addition, we’ll see pretty high dewpoints for this time of year, so it will feel rather humid. A cold front will charge across the region Thursday evening, but it looks like most of the support for showers and possible thunderstorms will be in southwestern New England, leaving only a minor risk of activity across the balance of central and eastern MA, southern NH, and RI. A small bubble of high pressure will move in for Christmas Day Friday but the front will not be that far to the south, so some cloudiness may linger, and it will be mild, though not as warm as Thursday. That front will start to edge back to the north and be an avenue for low pressure waves that will bring some unsettled weather at times over the weekend, though I’m not looking for any significant storminess.
TODAY: Partial sun possible morning otherwise mostly cloudy. Cloudy afternoon with numerous rain showers arriving south to north. Highs 50-58. Wind light N shifting to E.
TONIGHT: Cloudy with frequent rain showers, some heavy, during the evening, ending from south to north by later evening. Areas of fog. Increasingly humid. Temperatures steady 50-58 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind light E shifting to S and increasing to 10-20 MPH overnight.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers. Highs 60-65 South Coast and Cape Cod, 65-70 elsewhere. Humid. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT – CHRISTMAS EVE: Variably cloudy with isolated rain showers early, then partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Wind shifting to W 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: CHRISTMAS DAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of light rain at times late day or night. Lows in the 30s. Highs 45-55.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Risk of light rain. Lows 35-45. Highs 45-55.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 28-JANUARY 1)…
Dry, windy, colder December 28 as a cold high pressure area moves across eastern Canada. Low pressure from the west brings wet weather December 29 which may start as snow or mix as cold air hangs around briefly. Fair weather returns December 31 and lasts through the first day of 2016 with temperatures not as anomalously warm as previous days – averaging near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 2-6)…
Still leaning toward a mostly dry pattern, not as warm as many of the December days as we get into more seasonably chilly pattern for a time.