Saturday Forecast

9:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 30-OCTOBER 4)
An interesting final day of September. I saw a hint of the mesoscale event that brought flooding rain to the Lynn and Salem MA area all the way back last night at 10:30PM, when I let a helium balloon go here in Woburn under a calm wind, and as soon as the balloon got about 100 feet into the air it started to move fairly quickly to the north, indicating a south wind. Earlier the wind had been blowing from the northwest and as it eased up a sea breeze had formed along the coast of NH and northeastern MA. This light northeast flow was still in place there this morning while a more southerly flow had been established not too far to the southwest of this area. As the potent disturbance arrived on schedule with very cold air aloft over relative warmth at the surface (both land and ocean), it combined with the boundary and helped force a relatively small but slow-moving area of heavy rain and some thunder. The torrential rain resulted in localized flooding and since then (as of the writing of this) had progressed southward into Boston Harbor and is heading into the South Shore and southern suburbs now. The best dynamics for this type of event will be shifting south during the day as the entire disturbance does so, but anywhere in the region can experience showers for several hours before a drying trend takes place from north to south later in the day and by evening. Looking forward, the forecast gets much more simple for the first 4 days of October as high pressure re-establishes control, and we transition from a chilly start to a return of a summer feel by the end of the period.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy through early afternoon with area of shower, some heavy, especially eastern MA, including a risk of thunder and even some graupel mixed with the rain. A drying trend from north to south later in the day with some partial clearing especially north. Temperatures holding in the 50s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy frost interior valleys mainly central MA and southern NH. Areas of ground fog. Lows 38-43 interior, 44-49 coast. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-68. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 40-45 interior, 45-50 coast. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 63-68 coast, 68-73 interior. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Lows from the middle 40s to middle 50s. Highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s coast, middle to upper 70s interior.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s, coolest coast.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 5-9)
A cold front will come through from north to south by early October 6 but not before one more very warm day October 5. Limited moisture with the front so maybe a few showers early October 6 then a return to dry weather and although it will cool down somewhat, temperatures will still run above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 10-14)
Better opportunity for rain toward the end of the period after fair and mild weather to start it.

Friday Forecast

3:18PM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 29-OCTOBER 3)
No significant changes for this update. A nice fair weather Friday with a bit of a cool gusty breeze, feeling like autumn after our bout of summer. A small but potent disturbance will bring some unsettled weather late tonight and a good part of Saturday, followed by the coolest air of the early autumn so far. Recovery will be fairly quick though and a warm-up will already be underway Sunday afternoon after a chilly start, and continue into early next week as high pressure again dominates.
REMAINDER OF TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-67. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Showers arriving pre-dawn. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy through mid afternoon with showers likely, ending from north to south later in the day with some partial clearing especially north. Highs 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, shifting to N, with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s interior valleys, middle to upper 40s elsewhere. Highs in the 60s.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 4-8)
High pressure will dominate with fair weather and a significant warm-up October 4-5. A cold front should bring a switch to somewhat cooler weather but still above normal temperatures middle to end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 9-13)
The rain risk may increase as we go through this period with temperatures generally above to near normal.

Thursday Forecast

3:27PM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 28-OCTOBER 2)
A transition to cooler weather is underway as a cold front has moved offshore. This same front will finally boot Maria to see well to the south of New England with only some rough surf left behind for the next couple days. After high pressure brings fair weather Friday, a small but potent disturbance will bring some unsettled weather early Saturday but should keep moving enough for a recovery during the day. What will follow it is the coolest air of the early autumn so far, flowing in during the day Saturday to keep high temperatures below normal, followed by a chilly night in which some sheltered locations may see their first frost. High pressure will bring spectacular weather Sunday and Monday. This is a period of time where I once thought we may be seeing a coastal storm with significant rainfall. So here is an example of how things do not always work out how they look several days in advance, and re-evaluation must take place daily.
REMAINDER OF TODAY: Sunshine. Temperatures 66-75. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 42-47 except 47-52 urbane areas. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-67. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Showers arriving west to east pre-dawn. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy through midday with showers likely, ending from north to south midday. Clearing north to south later in the day. Highs 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, shifting to N, with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s interior valleys, middle to upper 40s elsewhere. Highs in the 60s.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)
High pressure will dominate with fair weather and a significant warm-up October 3-5. A cold front should bring a switch to somewhat cooler weather but still above normal temperatures for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 8-12)
The rain risk may increase as we go through this period with temperatures generally above to near normal.

Wednesday Forecast

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 27-OCTOBER 1)
High pressure hangs on today with fair and warm weather though clouds may be more stubborn near the South Coast. A cold front will cross the region late tonight and early Thursday while Maria takes a right turn far to the south of New England. It looks like a late link-up of moisture from Maria with the cold front will occur mostly just southeast of Cape Cod though a quick period of rain is still possible there, with just a few showers over eastern MA and RI with the front mainly in the pre-dawn to early morning hours Thursday. The end of the week will be cooler and mainly dry. We will have to watch for a disturbance to pass through which brings a threat of a few showers Saturday.
TODAY: Low clouds and areas of fog southeastern MA and South Coast and may linger near the South Coast much of the day with sun and some clouds elsewhere. Highs 74-81 coast, 82-87 interior. Wind light variable with light sea breezes then becoming S to SW 5-15 MPH late-day
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Isolated showers overnight. Lows 62-67. Wind light S to SW.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy early morning with isolated showers mainly eastern MA and RI and a quick period of rain possible Cape Cod, then mostly sunny mid morning on. Highs 72-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 40s to middle 50s. Highs in the 60s.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 30s interior valleys to around 50 urban centers. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 2-6)
High pressure is likely to be in control with generally dry weather and above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 7-11)
This period will likely see a warm/dry pattern continue to start out, and then rain chances may increase later.

Tuesday Forecast

7:24AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)
High pressure hangs on into Wednesday with fair and warm weather. A cold front will cross the region Wednesday night and early Thursday while Hurricane Maria takes a right turn far to the south of New England. Current thinking is there won’t be a real link-up of moisture from the hurricane with the cold front until it’s just offshore, so expecting only limited shower activity with the frontal passage. Behind, this front, a cool-down occurs later in the week. An additional disturbance may bring a few showers to the region Saturday.
TODAY: Low clouds and areas of fog early morning in some locations burning off to sunshine which will be filtered through high clouds. Highs 75-82 coast, 83-88 interior. Wind light variable with light sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Low clouds and areas of fog return to many locations. Lows 57-64. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Low clouds and areas of fog early to mid morning in some locations burning off to a mix of sun and clouds. Highs 74-81 coast, 82-87 interior. Wind light variable with light sea breezes.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Isolated showers overnight. Lows 62-67. Wind light S to SW.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy early morning with isolated showers mainly eastern MA and RI and a quick period of rain possible Cape Cod, then mostly sunny mid morning on. Highs 72-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 40s to middle 50s. Highs in the 60s.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 1-5)
High pressure is likely to be in control with generally dry weather and above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 6-10)
This period will likely see a warm/dry pattern continue to start out, and then rain chances may increase later.

Monday Forecast

5:41PM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)
High pressure remains in control through Tuesday. A cold front moves through Wednesday and Maria takes a right turn out to sea during midweek. A cooler northwesterly flow of air arrives to end to end the week behind all of that.
THROUGH EVENING: Clear. Temperatures 70s coast, 80s interior. Wind light variable.
OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 56-64, coolest interior valleys. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77 coast, 78-84 interior. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy and breezy. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy and breezy. Lows from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 30-OCTOBER 4)
A slight change from yesterday’s thinking. A disturbance may bring a few shower otherwise fair and mild September 30, then mainly dry weather for the balance of the period with temperatures above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 5-8)
Starting dry/warm then a mid period episode of wet weather may lead cooler air in by the end of the period.

Sunday Forecast

11:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)
High pressure remains parked atop New England with fair and warm weather to continue through Tuesday. A cold front will move into New England Wednesday and may allow an avenue for some of the moisture from Hurricane Maria well to the south to flow into New England. The storm it self will be pushed eastward out to sea along with the front Thursday and that day will turn breezy and cooler here.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 68-76 coast, 77-85 interior with a few valley areas 85-90. Wind light variable with light sea breezes coast.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 50-55 interior, 55-60 coast. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-76 coast, 77-85 interior with a few valley areas 85-90. Wind light variable with light sea breezes coast.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the lower to middle 70s coast, upper 70s to lower 80s interior.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Increasing chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
THURSDAY: Clearing. Windy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 29-OCTOBER 3)
Fair/breezy/cool September 29. Fair, warming up September 30. A storm of rain and wind may evolve during October 1-2 as a trough swing through the Northeast, with fair weather returning after its passage for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 4-8)
Fair weather and a warming trend, a round of showers, then possibly cooling down again late in the period.

Saturday Forecast

5:26PM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)
Not going to make a lot of changes to the forecast. Low pressure (formerly Jose) sinks away from New England to the south and eventually becomes absorbed by the circulation of Hurricane Maria off the US Southeast Coast by the middle of the coming week. In the mean time, high pressure will be in control of our weather through Tuesday. An approaching front Wednesday may trigger some showers by that time.
LATE AFTERNOON: Remaining clouds depart Cape Cod, sun sinks in the west elsewhere. Temperatures 60s coast, 70s interior. Light wind.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-53 interior valleys, 53-58 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-76 coast, 77-85 interior with a few valley areas 85-90. Wind light variable with light sea breezes coast.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 50-55 interior, 55-60 coast. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-76 coast, 77-85 interior with a few valley areas 85-90. Wind light variable with light sea breezes coast.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the lower to middle 70s coast, upper 70s to lower 80s interior.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 28-OCTOBER 2)
Fair September 28. Risk of a few showers September 29-30. Better chance of rain October 1-2. Temperatures trending cooler.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 3-7)
Fair weather returns, cooler to start, then a warming trend.

Friday Forecast

5:33PM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)
Jose finished its transition and is no longer tropical, but what it hasn’t finished doing is causing wind and some wet weather in southeastern New England, though that will abate tonight through early Saturday and then high pressure takes over by late Saturday into the beginning of next week. This will result in the feel of summer in the early days of autumn, which is underway as of 4:02PM today.
THROUGH EVENING: Overcast with areas of rain/drizzle and patchy light fog. Temperatures holding 57-62 coast, 63-68 interior. Wind NE 5-15 MPH interior and 15-25 MPH coast with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lingering showers southeastern MA early. Lows 53-59. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Party sunny. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 interior. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to middle 80s, coolest coastal areas.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s coast, middle 80s to near 90 interior.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the lower to middle 70s coast, upper 70s to lower 80s interior.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 27-OCTOBER 1)
A little uncertain of the details during this period but how I believe it will play out right now is a cold front brings showers and a chance of thunderstorms as Maria starts to take a turn to the east well south of New England September 27 and then dry weather returns September 28 with Maria well out to sea, but will watch it in case. Another period of unsettled weather may take place sometime in the September 29 through October 1 period as a trough approaches, but I’m thinking models don’t have a good handle on this and will update and fine tune.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 2-6)
A cooler period and a possible rain event early in the period then fair with a warming trend following. Low confidence continues for this period as well.

Thursday Forecast

3:47PM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)
The script has been changed many times on the tropical stage of late, but it seems to be pretty much finalized, for the time-being anyway. Jose will continue to weaken and drift around southeast to south of New England, eventually dissipating and being absorbed by Hurricane Maria which will be moving northwest to north through the waters north of the Caribbean, east of the Bahamas, and offshore of the US East Coast. Meanwhile high pressure will assert more control, although Jose will still try to battle it, this will lead to more dominant cloudiness at times, especially Friday, when there may be some wet weather as well, and into Saturday.

REMAINDER OF TODAY: Heaviest overcast southeastern MA with some rain at times outer Cape Cod and the islands. Thinner overcast including some sun to the northwest. Temperatures ranging from the middle 60s to middle 70s, warmest well inland. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH southeastern areas, with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind N 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH coast, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few periods of rain or showers favoring eastern NH, eastern MA, and RI. Highs 61-67. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH except 15-25 MPH coast, higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lingering showers southeastern MA early. Lows 53-59. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Party sunny. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 interior. Wind N 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to middle 80s, coolest coastal areas.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s coast, middle 80s to near 90 interior.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)
A front from the west may interact with moisture that was once Jose and produce showers and thunderstorms during the September 26-28 period while at the same time Maria makes a northward run off the East Coast, with odds favoring a turn out to sea. Will continue to watch it. Fair, cooler, drier weather should arrive to end the month.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 1-5)
A cooler period and a possible rain event very early in October then fair with a warming trend following. Low confidence on this at this time.