Thursday Forecast

9:42AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 4)
A quiet last day of November as high pressure dominates. A cold front will cross the region early Friday with limited rain shower activity. Fair weather will then dominate for the balance of Friday as well as most of the weekend, though some cloudiness on Sunday will be caused by a weak disturbance crossing the region on its way to ignite an offshore storm that will stay east of the region as high pressure returns through Monday with more fair weather.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Isolated rain showers by 10PM. A band of rain showers crossing the region overnight. Lows 35-41 early then rising back into the 40s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy with rain showers lingering southeastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA through mid morning. Clearing late morning. mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 46-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 21-27. Wind light NW.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-48. Wind light N to NE.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with a slight risk of very light rain/snow morning. Clearing afternoon. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 5-9)
We reach pattern transition period number 1 here. I believe the pattern, on its way to colder, will go through it in a couple stages as blocking begins to develop in the northern hemisphere, rearranging the large scale pattern. Though it is difficult for timing of systems which can make for a forecast that can blow up in your face easily, here is my best shot. Milder December 5-6 with an episode of rain showers somewhere later December 5 to early December 6. Turning colder later December 6 into December 8 with mainly dry weather, then a warm up and a chance of precipitation, likely rain, somewhere between the later December 8 and December 9 period. The late-period unsettled weather is far from etched in stone and could end up further south and timed even later.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 10-14)
Blocking will strengthen and transition period #2 will take place here with a couple periods of unsettled weather and a switch to below normal temperatures. This will, of course, lead to an increased risk for snow threats. Snow is not a guarantee on any given day, but the overall pattern will start to support it more during and beyond this period, looking ahead a little bit. Much more to come.

Wednesday Forecast

9:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
No. It didn’t rain overnight. The moisture you saw on the ground condensed there out of the air. This is the same process as when you see the outside of a glass drip with water when there is a cold drink in it. That chills the surface of the glass and then moisture in the relatively warm room air condenses onto the cold glass. The ground acted as the cold glass, condensing the moisture of the warming air mass. Now to the coming weather… A cold front pushes through the region today but the air behind it is not all that cold, so we still get a mild day today, albeit with a gusty breeze. It will chill down tonight and be a cooler day on Thursday as a narrow area of high pressure dominates. Then the progressive nature of the pattern pushes another front through the region parented by low pressure passing north of the region early Friday. This front will have more moisture to work with it than the one currently moving through, and will produce rain showers. The weekend looks cool and mainly dry. A weak disturbance will come through early Sunday with some cloudiness and no more than a touch of light rain and/or snow, but this energy will be feeding an offshore storm that will not impact the region other than some increased surf along the coastline early in the coming week.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Variably cloudy morning. More sun afternoon. Highs 52-58. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 21-27. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Sunshine much of the day, limited late as clouds advance. Highs 40-46. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Rain showers possible after midnight. Lows 34-40 early then rising back into the 40s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy with rain showers in the morning. Clearing afternoon. Highs 46-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with a slight risk of very light rain/snow morning. Clearing afternoon. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 4-8)
Back to milder at the start of this period and then mid period some unsettled weather marks the first hint at a coming pattern change. It will not happen all at once but this unsettled weather should be followed by a push of colder air to end this period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 9-13)
A blocking pattern in the atmosphere will change the weather pattern during this period. Here we should see a brief warm-up early period, then another round of unsettled weather with colder air returning in a stronger push by the very end of the period. A little difficult to time things and detail them so far out, so we will continue to refine.

Tuesday Forecast

9:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 28-DECEMBER 2)
Two moisture-starved fronts will cross the region during the next couple days, a warm front today, and a cold front Wednesday. The cold front may try to send a few rain showers into the region but it looks as if most of them will either dry up or pass north of the region. So despite these fronts traversing the area, we will see largely fair weather, and this will continue for the final day of November on Thursday as high pressure dominates. A low pressure area will track eastward, passing north of the region on Friday. A round of rain showers will occur with this system, but its progressive nature means that after a wet Friday morning it will likely dry out rather quickly. Fair and cooler weather should then return and dominate through Saturday. This will be favorable weather for all high school football championship games, a few of which are Friday night and the majority of which will be on Saturday.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-39. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A passing rain shower possible in the morning. Highs 53-59. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.
THURSDAY: Sunshine, late clouds. Rain showers arriving during the night. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy start with early rain showers, then sun/cloud mix. Lows from the lower to middle 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 3-7)
Expecting mainly dry weather during this period with a chilly start then a moderation to above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 8-12)
The pattern will start to become more amplified as we head toward mid December. However, this does not mean an immediate dive into colder and higher snow chances for New England. We may be temporarily trapped on the warmer side of the pattern for this particular period of time, with fair weather for a few days and then unsettled weather as the trough to the west begins an eastward advancement. Will closely monitor the evolution of this expected pattern change.

Monday Forecast

8:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)
A secondary cold front is pushing through the region first thing this morning hence the cloudiness and a few isolated snow flurries. Drying should allow for the sun to become dominant as the day goes on but along with a gusty wind and chilly air. But this chilly shot of air will be short-lived, and our progressive pattern will bring milder weather right back in Tuesday and especially Wednesday as we get a “quiet” warm frontal passage Tuesday, basically the return of the boundary that comes through today. Another cold front will cross the region Wednesday, devoid of precipitation but carrying an area of cloudiness with it, but this will be the mildest day of this week. Thursday’s cool-down will pack less punch than that of today. When we get to the end of this work week and the first day of December on Friday, we’ll likely see a wet day, with temperatures mild enough for rain instead of any mix/snow, as low pressure arrives from the west.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Lots of clouds limiting sun through mid morning, a few spotty snow flurries, then decreasing clouds and increasing sun late morning on. Highs 43-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with gusts over 20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-39. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 53-59. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain arriving during the night. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Temperatures steady in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 2-6)
On yesterday’s forecast I had hinted of a possible cut-off low pressure area arriving Friday and hanging around into if not through the weekend. Current indications are that this system will be more progressive as it comes through here, slowing down once it is further to the east, with any wet weather departing by early Saturday December 2 and breezy, cool but not cold, and dry weather for the balance of the first weekend of December. The early part of next week should feature fair weather and milder than average temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 7-11)
The pattern will start to become more amplified as we head toward mid December. However, this does not mean an immediate dive into colder and higher snow chances for New England. We may be temporarily trapped on the warmer side of the pattern for this particular period of time, with fair weather for a few days and then unsettled weather as the trough to the west begins an eastward advancement. Will closely monitor the evolution of this expected pattern change.

Winter Forecast 2017-2018

It’s no secret if you’ve seen my comments around the blog. I have struggled with this forecast more than any over the last few years. Examination of indices that help determine the long term pattern have been mixed to the point where I have not felt confident leaning too much in any direction. In such a case, I place more weight on a correlation of the weather pattern of November helping to determine the upcoming winter overall. This in itself, while a decent correlation, has been nowhere close to usable on many occasions. Taking all this into account, and placing a little faith in the November-to-winter correlation, the following paragraphs are my overall thoughts, month-by-month breakdown, and wrap-up summary of the what I expect to take place during the coming winter.

Drought is not so much a factor now as it was going into last winter. Although we continue to run a long term precipitation deficit, short term moisture was decent enough during a good portion of 2017 and from a couple events during the autumn to eradicate the ongoing drought and then put out a drought “flare up” that occurred during our warm and fairly dry stretch in early to mid autumn. I have examined current and expected indices including ENSO (which is expected to be weak to moderate La Nina), QBO (expected easterly), PDO (expected negative), AO/NAO/MJO among a few others. We can talk more about these as we get into the season on the blog on a daily basis. I also realize that these letters may mean nothing to some of you but just know that they have something to do with the large scale pattern in the atmosphere, and in some cases ocean circulation, and impact weather in certain ways. In addition, fairly rapid advancement of snowcover in Siberia, as well as eastern Canada, sets up plenty of cold air north of the border to be tapped. So even in an overall mild pattern we can tap the cold air and experience brief very cold shots of air behind departing low pressure areas. So these, along with the correlation for November mentioned above, leads me to the feeling that the winter overall will end up not all that far from normal in both temperature and precipitation, with a slight leaning toward the mild side of normal for temperature and a slight leaning toward the wetter side of normal for precipitation. Either of these, especially the precipitation, can be skewed significantly by 1 or 2 significant events. And even though we can say this about any seasonal forecast, I feel that the “bust potential” for this particular winter is a little above the average. How we will arrive at “near normal / near normal” will not be by seeing daily weather that fits the average for the date, but by high variability in temperature and frequent weak storm systems with the occasional larger one. Heading into the first 1 to 2 weeks of meteorological winter it looks like the current pattern will hold, and that is one of fairly dry weather overall with changeable temperatures, mild with brief periods of cold, a little milder overall than November had started out. The tendency for the atmosphere to develop a blocking pattern will be there, especially during the first half of the season. One trigger, stratospheric warming, which then disrupts the stable state of the polar vortex and sends it into fragments that then migrate further south, may very well take place toward the end of the first 10 days of December. With somewhat high stakes my leaning, based on fairly reliable guidance with these types of events, is to forecast a shift to colder with enhanced risk for snowfall during the middle and end of December. This pattern will probably not hold much longer than that and will probably adjust into a more zonal pattern similar to that of the early to mid portion of November, which was on the chilly and fairly dry side. This would be the dominant pattern for January’s early and possibly middle portion, but La Nina is going to want to put more ridging in the Southeast, and over time, we should see the pattern revert to the one that we currently have. Assuming La Nina peaks in late January and February, along with the continued negative PDO, during episodes of zonal flow with no blocking, the pattern would be fairly mild and on the drier side overall. Blocking can still occur with little warning and result in 1 or 2 storm systems of any precipitation type, dependent on air mass in place and synoptic conditions evolving during the event. Even with this leaning toward a milder overall pattern during the second half of the winter, we can still be subjected to brief periods of intense cold as Canada will continue to be on the colder side of normal with extensive snowcover. One last thing I am concerned about is icing events. Of course these can occur in any winter, but if we have a pattern that features mild air aloft and a storm system moving through, or even just a precipitation event with a frontal boundary nearby, the availability of cold air in nearby southern Canada can set up a situation where we have a warm atmosphere in all but the lowest levels, resulting in icing situations. The number, magnitude, and location of such events cannot be determined in the longer range, but just know that the possibility of such events this winter, in my opinion, is a little higher than average.

DECEMBER
Breakdown: Weak La Nina pattern. Zonal pattern overall first 10 days, blocking potential higher middle of month possibly into late month but may relax to zonal but more northwest flow before the month ends. Systems during the first third of the month would be more apt to produce rain versus snow, with the snow threat higher thereafter. A significant amount of the seasonal snowfall can occur in a pattern like the one expected in mid to late December, assuming storm threats line up to produce it.
Temperature: Near to below normal, arrived at by balancing a mild beginning of the month with a colder mid to late month.
Precipitation: Near to above normal.
Snow: Above normal.

JANUARY
Breakdown: If the pattern expected in mid December should try to repeat, as we sometimes see, it would likely be during the first half of the month in an otherwise colder and drier regime as late December’s pattern should be more dominant (zonal northwest flow). With time, expect this to relax and become more of a west southwest flow with milder dominant air and brief shots of cold as more of a ridge occurs in the US Southeast. We can see clipper type systems with the northwest flow, and a couple of Pacific systems when the pattern relaxes. Rain/ice/snow would be determined as always by the conditions in place at the time, but the tendency here would be for a somewhat wetter pattern by month’s end
Temperature: Near normal, arrived at by a balance of a colder start with a milder finish.
Precipitation: Near normal.
Snow: Near normal but high stakes as a big swing between Pacific systems producing rain or snow can mean many inches difference.

FEBRUARY
Breakdown: La Nina in its strongest state at this point of the winter should put a more persistent ridge in the US Southeast with the late January pattern continuing, the mild dominating and the cold shots brief but potentially intense.
Temperature: Near to above normal.
Precipitation: Near normal.
Snow: Below normal.

MARCH
Breakdown: Uncertainty abounds not only from it being several months away but the status of La Nina and other indices being somewhat in question. For now going to lean toward a milder and drier than average pattern, but with low confidence.
Temperature: Near to above normal.
Precipitation: Near to below normal.
Snow: Below normal.

WINTER SEASON OVERALL
Temperature: Near to slightly above normal.
Precipitation: Near normal.
Snow: Near normal.
-Boston 40-50 inches
-Worcester 50-60 inches
-Providence 30-40 inches
-Hartford 40-50 inches

Sunday Forecast

8:43AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 26-30)
The final 5 days of November will be fairly quiet but will start with a winter chill as cold air moves in today and lasts through Monday. A disturbance moving down from Canada may produce a few snow showers as far south and east as central MA and southern NH during this evening, otherwise dry weather is expected for this brief cold shot, and the warm-up that follows it during Tuesday and Wednesday. Another weaker cold front will knock the temperature back a little bit by Thursday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-45 hills, 45-50 elsewhere this morning, then falling into the 30s during the afternoon. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers, mainly central MA and southern NH. Lows 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-25 interior, 25-30 coast. Diminishing NW wind.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 1-5)
A cut-off low pressure area is expected to form over and just off the Northeast Coast, but the lack of cold air means that this would be a rain-producing system and impact the region December 1-2 gradually diminishing and pulling away during December 3. Fair weather would return for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 6-10)
Zonal flow pattern with quick moving systems, fairly weak, and a couple air mass changes. No major storminess expected during this period.

Saturday Forecast

8:52AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 25-29)
As we head down November’s home stretch we will see the fast-flowing weather pattern continue. The temperature warm-up that started yesterday will peak today and then get shut down by a cold front that comes through tonight with no more than a passing rain shower. Behind it, however, will be a shot of cold air for Sunday and Monday. There may be a few snow showers around on Sunday, especially late, as a disturbance passes by. A moderation arrives for Tuesday and Wednesday but the next cold front is due sometime on Wednesday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny start. Mostly cloudy finish. Highs 54-61. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Temperatures fall into the 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers, especially late. Temperatures fall 40s to 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 22-28. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle 50s to lower 60s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 4)
A fair final day of November expected then a brief period of wet weather to start December as another front comes through. Currently, the December 2-4 period is expected to be dry but may have to watch the evolution of a storm offshore from a trough cut off from the main jet stream. There are indications of this on reliable guidance and cannot discount it completely.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 5-9)
A little uncertain as the end of the previous period is also uncertain. For now expecting a departure of any cut off system and a fast-flowing pattern for the balance of this period with quick weather changes and no major storminess.

Friday Forecast

10:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 24-28)
High pressure retains control today then slips offshore Saturday with a warming trend. A cold front will cross the region Saturday night bringing a few rain showers to the region, and a weak disturbance will follow this Sunday with a second disturbance crossing the region Sunday night, both with a risk of snow showers as colder air will have arrived. The cycle repeats again as high pressure is in control Monday, which will be fair and chilly, then slips to the south Tuesday which will see a warm-up.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny start. Mostly cloudy finish. Highs 54-61. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Temperatures fall into the 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Temperatures fall 40s to 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle 50s to lower 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
Mainly dry with a mild November 29 and colder November 30. Rain or snow showers about December 1 then a fair and colder first weekend of December, based on current timing in this continued fast-flowing pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 4-8)
Fast-flowing pattern expected to continue and difficult to time northern jet stream energy and weak but occasional southern stream energy. Expect frequent changes in the weather but at the moment not seeing an indication of any major storminess.

Thursday Forecast

1:45AM

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you! I am thankful for being able to write this blog daily and share my thoughts on weather with you all!

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 23-27)
High pressure will move in for Thanksgiving Day but a very weak upper disturbance will approach the region by late in the day. High pressure centered south of the region will allow for a moderating trend Friday and Saturday. A cold front will cross the region Saturday night with no more than a passing rain shower as low pressure offshore stays out there, not impacting the region. By Sunday, the cold front goes by and we turn breezy and colder with some upper level energy triggering a few snow showers in the region. High pressure moves in with a fair/chilly set-up for Monday.
TODAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 39-46. Wind light W.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 26-33. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers evening. Highs 54-61. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Windy. Temperatures fall 40s to 30s.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 28-DECEMBER 2)
A significant warm-up is expected November 28-29 then temperatures get knocked back down toward normal thereafter with mainly dry weather overall.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 3-7)
Not going to say too much here as we will be in a pattern that may have more Pacific jet energy here and timing impossible to pin down so far in advance. Will fine-tune this going forward.

Wednesday Forecast

7:47AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 22-26)
Discussion…
Well so much for my “no travel trouble” a few days ago regarding today. Sometimes they just don’t work out so well. What I thought would be an area of rain largely offshore and a front with very little precipitation on it turns out to be that front helping to squeeze the atmosphere as a tongue of tropical moisture moves northward into southeastern New England on this day before Thanksgiving, resulting in widespread rain. So travel will be slow around the area today, though improvement will arrive at the end of the day and we’re still looking at a dry but chilly Thanksgiving Day as high pressure moves in. This will hang on through Friday as it stands now though some cloudiness is still expected as it starts to warm, first aloft, then at the surface, which will be much more notable by Saturday as we will be in the southwesterly air flow ahead of a cold front. This front will come through Saturday night when a few rain showers may occur. And as cold air flows in and an upper disturbance crosses the region Sunday a few snow showers may occur.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Overcast with rain and embedded downpours and thunder especially southeastern MA and RI, diminishing toward dusk when clouds may break. Highs 46-53. Wind light S to SW becoming NW and increasing to 10-20 MPH late day.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Watch for patchy ice where the ground does not dry. Lows 25-31. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing toward dawn.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind light W.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 22-30. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind light W.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers late day or evening. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Temperatures fall to the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)
The tough that I thought may ignite a storm early in this period should be progressive enough to allow high pressure to move in with dry and cool weather November 27 and a milder November 28 ahead of the next cold front, which may bring a little bit of unsettled weather on November 29 or 30 with fair weather returning as December arrives.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 2-6)
Indications are for a progressive pattern, weak systems, and a couple air mass changes. Will work on the details as the days get closer.