Saturday Forecast

8:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 31-APRIL 4)
You may remember the forecast several days ago started talking about an ending to the blocking pattern and a fast-flow pattern taking its place. This has occurred and will continue during the next 5 days, bringing rapid changes in weather. This will include a cold front that brings a few rain showers early Sunday, a wave of low pressure passing south of the region that brings a risk of some snow/mix for a portion of Monday, a warm front bringing a period of rain that may start as snow and/or sleet Tuesday, a potential surge of very warm air between late Tuesday and early Wednesday, and a shot of much colder air arriving by later Wednesday. Strap in for a weather coaster ride. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-53 Cape Cod, 53-58 elsewhere. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to SW and diminishing slightly.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight with a chance of a few rain showers. Lows 37-44. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy through mid morning with a chance of rain showers, then sun and passing clouds. Highs 49-56. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH shifting to N and diminishing.
MONDAY: Cloudy through late afternoon with a period of snow/mix possible, favoring southern MA southward. Potential snow accumulation of a coating to 2 inches north, 1 to 4 inches south, mainly on unpaved surfaces. Some evening clearing possible. Highs 35-43. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy with a period of rain possibly starting as snow and/or sleet. Partial clearing possible late. Lows in the 30s. Highs may range from the 40s north to the 60s interior south, but much uncertainty here.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy early, then mostly cloudy with a period of rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm, ending late. Lows in the 50s south and temperatures rising to the 50s if they didn’t get there already to the north early morning. Highs in the 60s except cooler South Coast, but may turn much colder west to east all areas afternoon and evening. Timing is uncertain being 5 days away.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 5-9)
Colder/drier weather for the Red Sox home opener April 5, and then it’s time to watch late next week for a potential precipitation event that may be in the form of rain, sleet, snow, or any combination of the three. Lots of time to keep an eye on that possible event.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 10-14)
Though I would love to report a pattern change, I can’t quite that yet. Although I’m not seeing any signs of one of those spring blocks, I am continuing to see an active pattern with cool air domination.

Friday Forecast

7:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 30-APRIL 3)
A cold front moves through the region today with showery weather. High pressure builds in Saturday which will be a nice spring day. Another cold front crosses the region Saturday night and early Sunday, starved for moisture, bringing mainly just a wind shift and breezy and slightly cooler weather for Sunday. Unsure of timing early next week but warm front approaches later Monday or Tuesday, and not sure if it pushes through yet so temperatures for the last day of this period are highly uncertain, though weather should be somewhat unsettled.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog this morning. Rain showers likely this morning. Scattered rain showers this afternoon. Highs 48-55 South Coast, 55-62 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to W.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a few additional rain showers early, then partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 43-49. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-56. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of mix/snow southern areas. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix north and rain south early, chance of rain showers later. Lows from the lower to middle 30s. Highs may range from the 40s northeast to 60s southwest, but highly uncertain.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 4-8)
Strong cold front comes through April 4 with rain showers that may end as snow showers as warm air is replaced by much colder air. Generally fair but chilly for April 5 which is also the Red Sox home opener. Have to watch the April 6-8 period for potential unsettled weather which may include frozen precipitation as well as rain.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 9-13)
The region will likely be near the boundary of warm and cold air meaning additional unsettled weather and changeable temperatures.

Thursday Forecast

2:56AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 29-APRIL 2)
A warm front made an initial push into the region yesterday but didn’t make a major impact, and the front basically washed out, but a second surge of warmer air approaches today and passes tonight before cold front #1 comes through from west to east during Friday. The result of these fronts will be a couple episodes of rain showers and mild conditions. The weekend will be divided by cold front #2, which will have limited moisture and come through in the early hours of Sunday, so both daytimes will be dry, with Saturday being the milder of the 2 days, and a transition to cooler during Sunday. A warm front will approach the region Monday with cool air and clouds returning. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Mid to late afternoon rain possible favoring areas west and north of Boston. Highs 47-55. Wind light SE to S.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 43-50. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers most likely in the morning, less likely in the afternoon. Highs 48-55 South Coast, 55-62 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to W.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with a passing rain shower early, then partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.
MONDAY: Clouding over. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 3-7)
A brief surge of warm air is possible April 3 before a strong cold front comes through and brings below normal temperatures for the remainder of the period. Precipitation threats will depend on the proximity of the boundary of warm/cold air, with rain showers possible at some point on April 3 and/or 4. The late portion of the period may see the threat of precipitation which could be liquid and/or frozen.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 8-12)
The region will likely remain near the boundary of warm and cold air meaning additional unsettled weather and changeable temperatures.

Wednesday Forecast

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 28-APRIL 1)
Warm front crosses the region today. Cold front approaches late Thursday but wave of low pressure along it holds up its passage until midday Friday. High pressure builds in Saturday. Another cold front, this one moisture-starved, will cross the region during Sunday.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy this morning with spotty very light rain. Partly sunny this afternoon. Highs 44-50 coast, 50-57 interior. Wind light SE to S.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 36-43. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny early, then mostly cloudy. Periods of rain possible in the afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind light S.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 40-47. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with rain showers possible. Partly sunny remainder of day. Highs 48-55 South Coast, 55-62 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, shifting to W.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing rain shower possible. Lows from the lower to middle 40s. Highs from the lower to middle 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 2-6)
Unsettled weather pattern and temperatures averaging below normal – more details to come.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 7-11)
Similar pattern continues though temperatures try to moderate.

Tuesday Forecast

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 27-31)
Only making a few timing adjustments in this update, but largely the same forecast. High pressure hangs on today, warm front approaches Wednesday, cold front a bit faster now expected to move through earlier on Friday, versus the later timing I had on the previous forecast. High pressure builds in for the final day of March on Saturday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind light N.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-38. Wind light SE.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light rain morning and midday which may fall as sleet and/or freezing rain interior locations for a brief time. Highs 40-48. Wind light SE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 35-43 evening, may rise overnight. Wind light S.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of late-day rain showers. Highs 47-54, coolest South Coast. Wind light SW.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely through early afternoon. Late-day clearing. Lows from the lower to middle 40s. Highs in the 50s except upper 40s South Coast.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 1-5)
A weak front may come through dry April 1. The pattern thereafter will be fast-flow but we’ll be near a boundary between cold air with surface high pressure in Canada, and milder air to the south which will be unsettled for at least a portion of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 6-10)
A progressive flow but with a tendency to have surface high pressure in Canada sets up the potential for unsettled weather and below normal temperatures overall during this period.

Monday Forecast

3:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 26-30)
High pressure centered north northeast of New England and a large storm far to the southeast in the ocean will combine for fair and chilly weather to start the week. A warm front will approach the region Wednesday and though this system will be fighting dry air in place, it may produce some light precipitation for a portion of the day. A milder southwesterly flow will dominate Thursday, but this type of flow is not so mild for the South Coast, which will be the coolest area. A low pressure system tracking north of the region Friday will drag a cold front toward southeastern New England but with mild air around this time we’re looking at rain showers.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 34-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind light N.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-38. Wind light SE.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light rain morning and midday which may fall as sleet and/or freezing rain interior locations for a brief time. Highs 40-48. Wind light SE.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 30s to middle 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s coast, middle 50s to lower 60s interior.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows from the lower to middle 40s. Highs in the 50s except upper 40s South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 31-APRIL 4)
A cold front will push through the region during the morning of March 31, based on current timing, and the day will likely start rain showery, then turn breezy/colder/drier behind the front. As April gets underway, a fast-flowing pattern will be in control, and timing of systems is always suspect. The early call is for a small area of high pressure to provide fair weather on April 1, then a period of up and down temperatures and unsettled weather April 2-4, probably warm front with light precipitation threat April 2, approaching cold front with mild air ahead of it, then rain showers April 3, and windy/cooler April 4. But over a week away by default makes timing somewhat uncertain.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 5-9)
A progressive flow but with a tendency to have surface high pressure in Canada sets up the potential for unsettled weather and below normal temperatures overall during this period.

Sunday Forecast

8:04AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 25-29)
An onshore northeast flow will hold clouds in the region and also result in additional snow showers today, which will gradually diminish. One large ocean storm offshore will move away early in the week as high pressure builds into New England and another storm passes far south of the region then blows up into yet another large ocean storm through midweek, far offshore. The circulations of these storms will be large enough to keep a northerly air flow going early into midweek, keeping it on the cooler side of normal. A weakening system from the west arrives Wednesday but likely with only cloudiness and little if any precipitation. By Thursday we may get a narrow sliver of high pressure just far enough east to create a southwest wind here, which will be a much milder result for all but the South Coast.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers NH Seacoast and eastern MA, gradually diminishing from north to south. No additional accumulation. Highs 33-39. Wind NE 5-15 MPH but gusting over 20 MPH at times near the coast.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-27. Wind N 10-20 MPH. Wind chill around 10 at times.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 34-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind light N.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s, coolest coast.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 30s to middle 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s coast, middle 50s to lower 60s interior.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 30-APRIL 3)
Low pressure is expected to pass just north of the region March 30 with a mild and rain showery day as a cold front pushes into the region. Behind the cold front comes windy, dry, and colder weather for March 31. A quick-moving weather pattern evolves as March ends and April begins on a tranquil note April 1 then may turn unsettled and chilly April 2 followed immediately by a warm-up April 3, however this is not set in stone being this far in advance, and is based on what I feel is somewhat reliable guidance regarding the upcoming pattern, with my own timing tweaks.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 4-8)
A progressive flow but with a tendency to have surface high pressure in Canada sets up the potential for unsettled weather and below normal temperatures overall during this period.

Saturday Forecast

*This is the next day’s forecast due to a WP error.*

7:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 25-29)
An onshore northeast flow will hold clouds in the region and also result in additional snow showers today, which will gradually diminish. One large ocean storm offshore will move away early in the week as high pressure builds into New England and another storm passes far south of the region then blows up into yet another large ocean storm through midweek, far offshore. The circulations of these storms will be large enough to keep a northerly air flow going early into midweek, keeping it on the cooler side of normal. A weakening system from the west arrives Wednesday but likely with only cloudiness and little if any precipitation. By Thursday we may get a narrow sliver of high pressure just far enough east to create a southwest wind here, which will be a much milder result for all but the South Coast.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers NH Seacoast and eastern MA, gradually diminishing from north to south. No additional accumulation. Highs 33-39. Wind NE 5-15 MPH but gusting over 20 MPH at times near the coast.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 18-27. Wind N 10-20 MPH. Wind chill around 10 at times.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 34-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind light N.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s, coolest coast.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 30s to middle 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s coast, upper 50s to lower 60s interior.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 30-APRIL 3)
Low pressure is expected to pass just north of the region March 30 with a mild and rain showery day as a cold front pushes into the region. Behind the cold front comes windy, dry, and colder weather for March 31. A quick-moving weather pattern evolves as March ends and April begins on a tranquil note April 1 then may turn unsettled and chilly April 2 followed immediately by a warm-up April 3, however this is not set in stone being this far in advance, and is based on what I feel is somewhat reliable guidance regarding the upcoming pattern, with my own timing tweaks.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 4-8)
A progressive flow but with a tendency to have surface high pressure in Canada sets up the potential for unsettled weather and below normal temperatures overall during this period.

Friday Forecast

7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 23-27)
A large circulation of low pressure will spin off the Atlantic Coast for the next 5 days. Some instability on the back side of the upper low offshore will bring the chance of a few snow and rain showers to the region later today. A stronger spoke of energy will bring a better chance of rain/snow showers later Saturday then snow showers Saturday night into early Sunday which may result in some minor accumulation. Drier air means more sun for Monday-Tuesday with the low further offshore and high pressure trying to build in from the west.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. A passing rain or snow shower possible. Highs 38-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain/snow showers, especially in the afternoon. Highs 38-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow showers likely, accumulation of a coating to 2 inches possible. Lows 24-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow showers possible in the morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 33-39. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 28-APRIL 1)
A weakening system may bring some cloudiness March 28 as it stays cool. Milder air arrives March 29-30 with fair weather on March 29 and a chance of rain showers on March 30. Drying, windy, colder March 31. April 1, based on current timing, should be fair and a little milder.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 2-6)
The flow looks more progressive but we may set up a battle between Canadian cold and southern US warmth which could turn it more unsettled here. Still possible that a stronger push of cold air from Canada may win.

Thursday Forecast

4:02PM

COMMENTARY
First, I’d like to apologize for the delay in this post and to thank you for being patient. Second, I was going to editorialize about the general public’s widely-held habit of bashing weather people for “getting it wrong”, but I don’t really think that’s necessary. The readers (and lurkers) of this blog know better, and for that I am grateful. Those who comment day in and day out are well aware of the process, some of them from dabbling in it themselves, and all from the experiences that I and a few other meteorologists share in the comments. There is a process that I and others go through daily to produce a forecast. Although there is slight variation day-to-day in this process, much of it is the same as the day before, but no matter how much experience a forecaster has, there are going to be exceedingly challenging forecasts. This was definitely one of them. At first, several days ago, I had this thing as a miss with “high confidence”. I should have known better. That’s the kiss of death on a forecast, declaring high confidence more than a couple days in advance. Alright, harsh reminder there. Then when I knew this would not be a complete miss the process of trying to figure out its impact began. This in itself is now more complicated that it should be. Oh the forecasting part is hard enough, but it’s a challenge I welcome and very much enjoy. The greater challenge and often losing battle is doing it the way I feel is right, but that puts me in a tiny sailboat on a chaotic sea of media hype. And I’m not talking about my fellow TV meteorologists. We all have our opinions on how they present their information, but we are all really working toward a common goal – informing the pubic. Unlike myself, they are under intense pressure from managers and others who scrutinize everything they do to not only get the information out there but “entertain” the audience. I’m not sure what words are used, but they are told to play the hype game. And what a difficult spot that leaves them in, as they really want to just get the information out there, but have to “please the boss” in the process. Yes, it is a ratings game, but somewhere along the way that took precedence over delivering quality information, correct or incorrect. I’m not even sure the public is getting the message any more. In talking to people I encounter during the day, they are not really getting it. Perhaps having a “bust” storm like this one is a good thing in that it teaches a lesson to the media outlets what too much hype can lead to. But are they really paying attention enough to learn the lesson? And if they do learn it, how long until complacency sets in and its forgotten, leaving the cycle to begin anew? All I can do is keep sailing my boat…

A QUICK LOOK BACK AT THE STORM THAT WAS (AND WASN’T)
I don’t need to go into too much detail here as it was already explained in the comments section of the previous blog posts, but in case anybody missed it. I referred to my forecasting process in the commentary above. For this event, once I knew it was going to impact us, I was nervous about the dry air to the north, as depicted, it turns out quite accurately, by several runs of the ECMWF (European) forecast model. But since it was basically the only model doing that, it naturally lead to a little skepticism about its solution, but not enough in me to completely ignore it. I’ve seen this before, more than once, with a somewhat similar set-up, and that model being the only one to see something. I couldn’t shake that, so I opted to play it safe, forecasting enough snow to give the idea of decent impact, but leaving it just above a level I could adjust to if my drier scenario worked out, without looking like I was hacking my forecast to shreds with a hatchet. The fact is, this rather impressive storm system was up against a brick wall of dry air, and took quite some time to eat into it. Why did it rain for a while in areas that snow was forecast? Simple. The forecast of colder air was depending on steadier and widespread precipitation helping to cool the atmosphere enough to support snow. When the storm held off to the south pretty much all day, the atmosphere was able to warm enough to not support snow in a good portion of the region, so once areas of relatively light precipitation moved in, it was rain, not snow, and then the process had to take place when finally, in the overnight hours, enough precipitation had eroded the dry air to do the process that was forecast hours before. While this was going on, the heavy bands of precipitation that were forecast to be working into southern New England were instead about 25 to 40 miles further south, thanks to a little wobble in the elongated low pressure center, keeping the storm just a touch further offshore than had been expected. With 5 inches of snow falling at Islip, Long Island, NY, in a little over 1 hour, it is clearly evident just how close Southern New England was to having a much different outcome. In terms of a forecast miss, distance-wise it is not that much, but impact-wise, it made a world of difference. All I can say is I am glad I took the chance and lowered snow amounts by late evening to reflect that the full potential of this was not to be realized. This is not a claim of victory by any stretch, but a sigh of relief that my forecast didn’t have as far to fall flat on its face. So, on we go to look ahead…

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 22-26)
So the storm is gone, or is it? Our double-barrel storm and its attendant upper level low pressure area isn’t really going away, and will actually have an impact on the weather here for this entire 5-day period. Today’s impact has already been seen, since I’m putting out this blog late in the afternoon. During the next few days, some instability on the back side of the upper low offshore will bring the chance of a few snow and rain showers to the region, especially midday and afternoon Friday and again for a portion of Saturday. A stronger lobe of energy may bring a more widespread area of snow showers in the early to mid morning hours of Sunday, so if you wake up Sunday morning to what looks like a snowstorm in progress, it should not be hanging around all that long. By Monday, it will be precipitation-free, but a northerly flow will persist, with chilly weather continuing. Forecast details…
THROUGH EVENING: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow and drizzle mainly near the eastern MA coast. Temperatures ranging from the middle 30s to middle 40s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. A passing rain or snow shower possible. Highs 38-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain/snow showers, especially in the afternoon. Highs 38-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely in the morning. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 27-31)
The last 5 days of March will start out dry/cool as the final influence of the offshore storm hangs on while high pressure builds in. It looks like a weakening system may bring some cloudiness March 28 but may be absent of precipitation, and the March 29-30 period may be milder, starting fair and ending showery, but probably rain showery versus snow showery. Based on current timing, drier but windy/colder weather is expected for the last day of the month.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 1-5)
A more progressive west to east flow is expected as the blocking pattern will have broken down during the final days of March. This would mean up and down temperatures and weaker storm systems, one of these likely around April 2 or 3 dividing a milder start for the period from a colder finish.