Saturday Forecast

8:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 30-JULY 4)
Not much new on this update, just a few tweaks. A disturbance passing through Maine should keep its showers and storms northeast of the WHW forecast area today and tonight but will watch it and alert in comments section later if something does end up a little closer than expected, and that would be southeastern NH or northeastern MA if it did happen, and sometime tonight. This disturbance, and the outflow from the storms associated with it, will push a boundary with a little more momentum into eastern areas during Sunday, sparing the coast the highest heat. This will penetrate inland some distance, but the impact is much less by the time we reach this time of year than it would have been earlier in the spring, and with the heat already in place, we’re starting at a much higher level before knocking things back. This air will hang around into Monday but the air mass will warm under the early July sunshine so don’t expect refreshing ocean wind everywhere, although the coast may still be quite comfy Monday, despite the air being rather humid. The hottest days of this period for the region overall should be Tuesday and Wednesday. There is only the slightest risk of an isolated thunderstorm Wednesday but the chance is so remote I hesitate to even mention it. I believe warm air aloft should keep it stable enough to overcome a little surface convergence and the heat/humidity at the ground. But where it is the holiday itself, the forecast is high stakes and will of course be closely monitored.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-82 Cape Cod, 80-87 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 66-75, warmest in urban areas. Wind light SW.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 shoreline and 86-95 elsewhere but falling back through the 70s immediate coast and through the 80s for up to 25 miles inland from east-facing shores during the late morning and afternoon. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to E and NE.
MONDAY: Sunny. Lows from the upper 60s to upper 70s, warmest urban areas. Highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s immediate coast, ranging up from middle 80s to middle 90s further inland.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 60s to upper 70s, warmest urban areas. Highs from the upper 80s to middle 90s, coolest coastal areas.
WEDNESDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the upper 60s to upper 70s. Highs from the upper 80s to middle 90s but cooler in some coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 5-9)
Currently expecting hot and humid weather but no storm threat July 5, and similar but with an isolated storm threat July 6 and 7. Better risk of showers/storms July 8 with a cold front and the hot weather pattern is broken, at least temporarily, by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 10-14)
Less heat, back to more seasonable temperatures as the ridge backs up further west and a couple disturbances move through with shower and thunderstorm chances.

Friday Forecast

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 29-JULY 3)
When Independence Day falls on a Wednesday, there is a perfect reason to have TWO “Fourth of July Weekends”, and they are both included in this outlook, the first one rapidly approaching, and it will be hot and increasingly humid as an upper level high pressure ridge takes over the weather. In fact, other than the remotest risk of a shower north and west of Boston this evening with a weak disturbance, I now do not see any possibility of rain for the remainder of this period, just plenty of heat, although there will be episodes of cooling sea breezes in some coastal areas, especially Sunday and Monday as it stands now. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine, few clouds late. Highs 78-85 shorelines, 85-92 elsewhere. Wind NW up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening with a slight risk of a brief shower west and north of Boston. Clearing overnight. Lows 62-69. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-82 Cape Cod, 80-87 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 66-75, warmest in urban areas. Wind light SW.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 86-95 elsewhere. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes likely, especially east-facing shores which may drop to the 70s.
MONDAY: Sunny. Lows from the upper 60s to upper 70s, warmest urban areas. Highs from the upper 80s to middle 90s but cooling in some coastal areas.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 60s to upper 70s, warmest urban areas. Highs from the upper 80s to middle 90s, coolest coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 4-8)
More heat and humidity, but the thunderstorm chance may increase somewhat toward the end of the period as the ridge center shifts a little to the west and a disturbance or two get closer to the region.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 9-13)
Less heat, back to more seasonable temperatures as the ridge backs up further west and a couple disturbances move through with shower and thunderstorm chances.

Thursday Forecast

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 28-JULY 2)
A warm front passes through this morning and a cold front approaches later today. Most of the support for widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms lies with the warm front and we’ll see this with another round of soaking showers crossing the region through midday. During the afternoon activity becomes scattered to isolated, but any storms that do form can be strong, so we need to watch for that. All quiets down this evening and then we shift focus to the incoming heat, initially with lower humidity Friday after today’s mugginess, and then building humidity returns thereafter. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm morning. Partly sunny with isolated showers and possible thunderstorms afternoon. Any thunderstorms can be briefly strong with downpours and gusty winds. Humid. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog. Humid evening, less humid overnight. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 inland. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from near 80 South Coast to around 90 elsewhere.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Humid. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the lower to middle 80s South Coast, upper 80s to middle 90s elsewhere.
MONDAY: Sunny. Humid. Lows from the upper 60s to middle 70s. Highs from the middle 80s to middle 90s, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 3-7)
An old frontal boundary may trigger a shower or thunderstorms July 3. Another front may approach later in the period with a shower and thunderstorm threat, but otherwise it’s fair and hot as high pressure ridging dominates. Sea breezes may cool coastal areas at times.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 8-12)
As high pressure ridging slides back to the west the jet stream will be allowed to sink southward and provide a few more shower and thunderstorm threats with more variable temperatures during this period.

Wednesday Forecast

7:08AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 27-JULY 1)
A warm front approaches today and passes tonight with more cloudiness (than previously forecast) but still not a bad day, and showers holding off until late evening and overnight, which will become more numerous through Thursday morning ahead of a cold front, which will pass through during the afternoon. But the air behind this front is not really much cooler than the air ahead of it. It’s more of a dew point boundary that will push out a wedge of high humidity that arrives overnight and early Thursday. So Friday will be less humid but will turn very warm as high pressure ridging builds over the eastern US. This sets up a hot weekend to end June and begin July. Forecast details…
TODAY: Limited sun through lots of high clouds. Highs 76-83. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers arriving west to east late evening and overnight. Lows 60-67. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm morning. Partly sunny with isolated showers and possible thunderstorms afternoon. Any thunderstorms can be briefly strong with downpours and gusty winds. Humid. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s except cooler some coastal areas.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from near 80 South Coast to around 90 elsewhere.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Humid. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the lower to middle 80s South Coast, upper 80s to middle 90s elsewhere.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 2-6)
A ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather and this is a hot pattern for this area with mainly dry weather. Exceptions are disturbances that travel over the ridge, which will be centered to the west of New England, sometimes can bring brief thunderstorm threats. A weakening front may make it into the vicinity around July 3 and trigger a few storms. Also some coastal areas can cool at times due to sea breezes.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 7-11)
As high pressure ridging slides back to the west the jet stream will be allowed to sink southward and provide a few more shower and thunderstorm threats with more variable temperatures during this period.

Tuesday Forecast

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 26-30)
No changes again. Two great days, then a front, favoring faster timing still, then heat knocks on the door at the end of the week.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog interior wetlands. Lows 48-53 interior valleys / wetlands, 53-58 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 77-84. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers mainly morning to mid afternoon. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s except cooler some coastal areas.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs from near 80 South Coast to around 90 elsewhere.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 1-5)
A ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather and this is a hot pattern for this area with mainly dry weather. Exceptions are disturbances that travel over the ridge, which will be centered to the west of New England, sometimes can bring brief thunderstorm threats. Also some coastal areas can cool at times due to sea breezes.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 6-10)
Similar pattern continues with heat and limited thunderstorm chances at first, and then a couple stronger disturbances may bring better thunderstorm chances and cut into the heat thereafter.

Monday Forecast

7:07AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 25-29)
As we start the week, there are no big changes to the outlook. A disturbance and boundary left behind last night’s low pressure passage will trigger a few showers in eastern areas today before it clears out tonight and high pressure brings fair weather Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front will cross the region Thursday with showers and still leaning toward an earlier timing on this. We feel the first of rapidly building heat by Friday as high pressure expands into the eastern US and drives out what little cool air arrives behind Thursday’s front. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers possible, favoring southeastern NH and eastern MA late morning through mid afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind light N.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog interior wetlands. Lows 48-53 interior valleys / wetlands, 53-58 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 77-84. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers mainly morning to mid afternoon. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s except cooler some coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 30-JULY 4)
A ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather and this is a hot pattern for this area with mainly dry weather. Exceptions are disturbances that travel over the ridge, which will be centered to the west of New England, sometimes can bring brief thunderstorm threats. Also some coastal areas can cool at times due to sea breezes.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 5-9)
Similar pattern continues with heat and limited thunderstorm chances at first, and then a couple stronger disturbances may bring better thunderstorm chances and cut into the heat somewhat later in the period.

Sunday Forecast

8:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 24-28)
In some places the warm front still has not passed as we don’t have a very strong push of warm air this time, so the cooler air at the surface has been tough do dislodge, much like what we often see in the winter and spring, but that warm/muggy air will finally get into all areas and then as a cold front approaches later we will see the risk of showers increase from later this afternoon into tonight, as indicated previously. After the front goes by we do see drier air tomorrow but cold air aloft and a boundary setting up near the eastern coastal areas will make development of showers probable during the afternoon and evening hours. Not expecting widespread rainfall but any of these showers may be briefly heavy. The next “interruption” comes in the form of a cold front sometime Thursday, and currently leading toward the first half of the day, but at day 5 there is not high confidence regarding the timing of a front. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers to general showers favoring late afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy with showers likely evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Humid evening, drier overnight. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers possible. Less humid. Highs 70-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early. Lows 52-59. Wind light N.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers mainly morning to early afternoon. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 29-JULY 3)
High pressure ridge takes over with building heat, mainly dry weather and only isolated thunderstorms possible.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 4-8)
High pressure ridge dominating the weather should result in mainly dry weather and above to much above normal temperatures, but we’ll have the jet stream close enough to the north and the center of high pressure just far enough west to result in the possibility of disturbances and passing showers and storms at times, so will have to monitor for those, especially during the second half of the period.

Saturday Forecast

9:03AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 23-27)
No changes to the weekend forecast as an approaching warm front makes today a cloudy and cool day with a few areas of rain moving through, however this is not going to be a washed-out day and there will be rather long episodes of rain-free time for many locations. A cold front follows this by late Sunday, allowing the day to be warmer and humid ahead of it, but also bringing showers and possibly a thunderstorm, especially late-day and evening. As drier air moves in by Monday behind the cold front we still eye a disturbance that will likely set off scattered showers that day. High pressure brings fair weather Tuesday and Wednesday.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A few periods of rain possible, but much of time rain-free. Highs 62-67 coast, 67-72 interior. Wind E 5-10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few episodes of showers. Increasingly humid. Lows 60-65. Wind light SE shifting to SW.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers to general showers favoring afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with showers likely evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Humid evening, drier overnight. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers possible. Less humid. Highs 70-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 28-JULY 2)
A front passes by early June 28 with a shower risk, then the pattern brings building heat and mainly dry weather with just a risk of isolated showers or thunderstorms at times as June ends and July arrives.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 3-7)
High pressure ridge dominating the weather should result in mainly dry weather and above to much above normal temperatures, but we’ll have the jet stream close enough to the north and the center of high pressure just far enough west to result in the possibility of disturbances and passing showers and storms at times, so will have to monitor for those.

Friday Forecast

7:11AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 22-26)
This post does not carry much change from what was posted at this time yesterday. Still looking at a warm front (Saturday) / cold front (Sunday) weekend, unsettled but not washed out. Still keeping the shower threat in the Monday forecast for one additional disturbance. Expecting fair weather beyond that into midweek as high pressure arrives. Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 inland. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind light SE.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few periods of rain possible, favoring mid morning through early afternoon. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 interior. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few episodes of showers. Increasingly humid. Lows 60-65. Wind light SE shifting to SW.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers to general showers favoring afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers possible. Less humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 27-JULY 1)
Expecting mainly dry weather for this period but will watch for small disturbances coming along a weaker jet stream in a general west to east flow. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 2-6)
Much of this period looks dry with minimal shower and thunderstorm threat but always need to watch for disturbances with the jet stream not too far to the north. Temperatures generally above normal with a high pressure ridge in the eastern US.

Thursday Forecast

7:14AM

COMMENTARY
The Summer Solstice occurred at 6:07AM EDT so it’s now officially summer by astronomical standards, lagging behind almost everyone else’s definition of the start of summer, and proving, though probably to no real benefit, once again why it doesn’t do us good to rush the seasons. Interesting how we’ve decided to ignore the real in favor of the made-up, but that’s how we do it in society I suppose.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 21-25)
A disturbance that passed south of the region overnight exits early today with no more than few rain drops around Nantucket, but a frontal boundary coming down from the north along with a developing sea breeze will set up a wind convergence area and may trigger a few showers and maybe even a thunderstorm this afternoon and very early evening anywhere from the Boston and Worcester metro areas southward. High pressure will control the weather Friday but a light onshore flow will keep it on the cooler side of average. The weekend will be somewhat unsettled but not a washout. I would not cancel any plans at this point. We’ll see a warm front pass through the region by Saturday night, and ahead of it we’ll see abundant cloudiness and patchy rain, but a good amount of this rain may peel off to the east and push through southeastern areas from Saturday morning to early afternoon, leaving much of the region rain-free. Humidity spikes by early Sunday and by later Sunday a cold front will be moving through the region bringing a fairly widespread shower risk. Drier air arrives Monday but one additional disturbance passing through may still trigger a few showers, but that being 5 days away is far from a certainty. Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy morning with brief rain Nantucket. Partly sunny afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm in MA/RT/eastern CT. Highs 73-81, coolest coast. Wind light variable early then E 5-15 MPH except N 5-15 MPH over central MA to eastern CT.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog interior wetlands. Lows 50-55 interior valleys, 55-60 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 inland. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind light SE.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few periods of rain possible, favoring southeastern areas from mid morning through early afternoon. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 interior. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers to general showers favoring afternoon and evening. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers possible. Less humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 26-30)
Expecting mainly dry weather for this period but will watch for small disturbances coming along a weaker jet stream in a general west to east flow. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 1-5)
Much of this period looks dry with minimal shower and thunderstorm threat but always need to watch for disturbances with the jet stream not too far to the north. Temperatures generally above normal with a high pressure ridge in the eastern US.