7:34AM
DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 28-FEBRUARY 1)
High pressure brings seasonably cold weather to the region today. If you’re up early enough you may see a deck of clouds hiding the rising sun. These clouds are with an ocean storm that is missing the region. A couple hundred miles further west with that system and we’d be digging out from quite the snowstorm later today. But, not the case. The next winter weather event arrives later Tuesday as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes and a new low forms on its trailing front in the Middle Atlantic. This low will likely track right across southeastern New England Tuesday night, and this track will produce a snow-to-rain-to-snow scenario for many areas, but it may stay as snow/mix in the higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH throughout the event, where even though it won’t be a prolific producer, snow amounts there will be the highest. Before the arrival of this system, some eastern coastal areas of MA may see some ocean effect snow showers due to an onshore flow developing during the day Tuesday. As for the precipitation produced by the low, all areas end as snow at least briefly around dawn Wednesday as colder air rushes back in behind the departing low, and perhaps just enough to create some slippery travel for the morning commute in areas that didn’t really see any accumulation previously – something to watch for that morning. An arctic cold front will cross the region later Wednesday, bringing one of the better snow shower and snow squall chances we’ve had in a while. But squalls or not, the door will be open for a bitter blast of air, not quite to the degree of the one of January 21, but with more wind, making it feel just as cold if not a little colder when you factor that in. This will be for Thursday, the final day of the month. Triple-F Day, otherwise known as “Friday February First”, will open the new month on a cold note, but not as cold as the day before, as the core of the cold will have moved up in to the Canadian Maritimes by then. Earlier I had been thinking that we could see a sneaky snow event on that day, but at this time my feeling is that will be suppressed well to the south and pass through the Mid Atlantic region as a relatively minor system as high pressure builds in across New England.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: High cloudiness hides the early morning sun then becoming mostly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 15-22. Wind N
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few snow showers eastern MA coastal areas. Highs 30-37. Wind light NE to E.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow to possible mix northwest, snow to rain most other areas, and may just start as rain South Shore of MA and South Coast of MA/RI, then a brief switch back to snow in most areas pre-dawn before ending. Snow accumulation patchy coatings far southeastern areas, coating to 1 inch I-95 belt, 1-3 inches central MA and interior southern NH. Temperatures rise slightly to 32-36 north and west, 37-41 south and east through late evening then fall back to 25-32 around dawn. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, mainly NE to N interior areas and SE to S in coastal areas, shifting to N-NW all areas up to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts toward dawn.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a lingering snow shower eastern areas early then a sun/cloud mix. Late-day snow showers/squalls possible. Highs 28-35. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows in the 0s. Highs in the 10s. Wind chill well below 0 at times.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 0s. Highs in the 20s.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 2-6)
February 2-3 weekend looks dry, starting chilly ending milder as high pressure first over the region then sinks to the south and east. February 4 looks mild with possible rain showers. Windy, cooler, drier weather arrives February 5 as a cold front moves through and offshore. Will watch for a minor low pressure system with a threat of snow/mix by the end of the period.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 7-11)
Seasonably chilly early period, milder following this with the next storm threat likely to be a Great Lakes system with mix/rain threat here, then a chilly end to the period. Confidence on timing low.