8:48AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 15-19)
I don’t need to tell most folks that the main line of thunderstorms has already moved through, right on or slightly ahead of schedule, and other than traversing part of Cape Cod as I write this blog update, it’s pretty much offshore now. The lull will take place other than a few isolated rain showers, during the running of the Boston Marathon and probably for a good part of the Red Sox game (11AM start). The competitors still on the marathon course after 1PM (west) and after 2PM (east) may have to deal with another passing downpour with possible thunder. This may also impact the late innings of the baseball game, but if it does occur it will pass through rather quickly. As we get to late afternoon, the shower threat goes away but the wind really picks up from the west and eventually northwest as low pressure intensifies while moving away via eastern Canada and high pressure approaches from the west. We’ll stay in the wind zone well into Tuesday, but Wednesday will be more tranquil, though will probably see an increase in cloudiness as a warm front sits southwest of the region. This warm front will make its way slowly across the area during Thursday with cloudiness and perhaps some wet weather at times, and by Friday we will get into the warm sector which will feature a gusty southerly wind, lots of clouds, warm air, and a threat of rain showers.
Forecast details…
TODAY (PATRIOTS DAY): Cloudy mid morning with thunderstorms exiting Cape Cod, rain showers ending west to east across the region. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny late morning and midday. Variably cloudy 1PM to 5PM with additional scattered showers/thunderstorms west to east. Partly cloudy evening. Highs 58-65 South Coast, 66-73 elsewhere. Wind variable 5-15 MPH remainder of morning, W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts afternoon, NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts evening.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-50 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind light SE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind light SE to S.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain in the morning. Highs 52-59 South Coast, 60-67 elsewhere occurring late in the day. Wind light SE shifting to SW.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of passing rain showers. Highs 58-63 South Coast, 63-68 just inland from the South Coast and south-facing portions of the eastern MA coast, 68-75 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 20-24)
A springtime setup with a slow moving cold front bringing showery weather Saturday April 20 then moving offshore, while an upper low drifts across the Tennessee and eastern Ohio Valley putting southern New England into a warm southerly air flow but with still a risk of a few rain showers Sunday April 21. That low may drift toward the East Coast and result in a more unsettled and cooling period of weather April 22-24.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 25-29)
A break in the weather early period with fair conditions, then wet weather may return April 27-28 weekend before a drier end to the period. Temperatures variable, but averaging near to slightly above normal.

10:44AM

NOTE
A net outage delayed today’s update, which doesn’t have many changes so it’s slightly abbreviated and much of the previous forecast is still intact in it.

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 14-18)
Warm front approaches today and passes tonight, then Monday sees a cold front pass by early in the day and a secondary trough later. Currently expecting most wet weather to be tonight and very early Monday and one more round of wet weather later Monday. It’s detailed below but I do believe the Boston Marathon will take place with minimal impact from weather and the Red Sox game will also be able to go on. Tuesday will be blustery spring day with lots of sun and wind as low pressure intensifies while moving away via eastern Canada and high pressure moves toward New England from the west. A warm front will approach slowly from the southwest Wednesday, which should be a dry day but may feature some cloudiness. There should be a period of wet weather at some point Wednesday night or part of Thursday as the front moves across the region, putting us into the warm sector by late Thursday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Rain possible end of day or nighttime, especially south and west of Boston. Highs 55-62, cooler some coastal areas. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 45-52 evening, then temperatures rise overnight to 53-60. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to S.
MONDAY (PATRIOTS DAY): Mostly cloudy. Rain showers and possible thunderstorms with brief downpours west to east across the region early morning. Isolated rain showers mid morning through early afternoon. Rain showers and a risk of thunderstorms west to east mid to late afternoon, with small hail possible in any heavier cells in this batch. Highs 53-60 South Coast, 60-67 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W later in the day.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind W shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind light SE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 45-52. Wind light SE to S.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain in the morning. Highs 52-59 South Coast, 60-67 elsewhere occurring late in the day. Wind light SE shifting to SW.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 19-23)
A low to moderate forecast based on timing, but current idea is warm sector weather with south to southwest wind, warm air, and occasional rain showers April 19-20, then a front getting to the east of the region with drier but still mild weather April 21. Upper level low pressure may bring some unsettled weather to the region at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 24-28)
Best wet weather risks April 24 and again April 27-28 weekend. We’ll need to keep an eye on river levels during the next few to several weeks as the spring warming melting the immense snow pack in northern New England and occasional wet weather events add to them. There will be flooding issues, the degree of which remains to be seen.

8:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 13-17)
If you woke up thinking today would be sunny and warm, you didn’t pay attention. Better start, never know when there will be a pop quiz! We have a slow-moving front crossing the region. It’s in no hurry, and it’s also falling apart somewhat. Numerous rain showers, some moderate to heavy, moved in overnight, and the broken band of showers is still with southeastern New England, although as expected it is making its exit, but slowly. The timing hasn’t really changed, just more toward the back side of the window, so these showers should be exiting the region during the course of mid morning from west to east while the entire areas sinks to the southeast, so the last place to be wet will be Cape Cod. There’s also a band of showers to the northwest which will be drying up, but the boundary that is causing that area will be hanging around central to northeastern MA and southern NH and may help to fire up a few showers and maybe even a thunderstorm later today in those areas, so we’ll have to be on the look-out for that. The rest of the region will be rain free from late morning on. Don’t expect a sudden turn to brilliant sun though. While sunshine will make an appearance, especially in central and northern MA and southern NH where it will provide some fuel for possible later activity, it will be quite limited to the southeast. When the air flow above and at the surface is similar and a frontal boundary is pretty much parallel to the upper winds, which this one is, it doesn’t move much and cloudiness often remains dominant in the region. But it will be a milder to warmer day overall, with the usual cooler spots where a southwest wind is an onshore wind (South Coast, Cape Cod, outer Cape Ann). Another couple positives to having some wet weather about, temporary reduction in pollen count and fire danger. High pressure settles across northern New England by Sunday and this is going to result in more broad onshore wind from the east across the region, resulting in a cooler day overall. A warm front will approach from the south and then move through from south to north without much trouble during the early hours of Monday, which most of the rain will occur. This time high pressure to the north is not strong enough to hold the front back and keep the cold locked in at the surface like we see many times in spring. So getting into the warm sector means that our Patriots Day Monday will not be like the one we saw last year with a driving cold rain, but will feature mild and showery weather. Even though there may be a band of heavier showers and even some thunder, favoring the morning hours, that should move out fairly quickly and several rain-free hours are probable in any given location, at least making it easier for runners and spectators of the Boston Marathon and leaving a good chance of getting the Red Sox game in as well. There are also some early to mid morning outdoor activities commemorating Revolutionary War events, and those will likely be impacted by showers, so plan accordingly. Low pressure exiting the region via the Gulf of Maine and southeastern Canada pulls chilly air back into the region Monday night and Tuesday, but it will dry out and also be quite breezy. A warm front will approach slowly from the southwest Wednesday, which should be a dry day but may feature some cloudiness.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning with rain showers likely eastern CT, RI, and eastern MA, and diminishing rain showers central MA and southern NH, while activity exits southeastern areas from west to east during mid morning (lastly Cape Cod). Mostly cloudy to partly sunny this afternoon with most sun north and west, but also a pop up shower or thunderstorm possible late-day central and northeastern MA and southern NH. Highs 52-59 Cape Cod and Islands, 60-67 southeastern MA and southern RI to southeastern CT, 67-74 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain possible end of day or nighttime, especially south and west of Boston. Highs 55-62, cooler some coastal areas. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 45-52 evening, then temperatures rise overnight to 53-60. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to S.
MONDAY (PATRIOTS DAY): Mostly cloudy. Rain showers and possible thunderstorms with brief downpours west to east across the region early to mid morning. Additional passing rain showers possible thereafter. Highs 53-60 South Coast, 60-67 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W later in the day.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely evening. Lows 42-49. Wind W shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind light SE to S.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 18-22)
Warm front slowly crosses the region April 18 with lots of cloudiness and the possibility of a period of light rain. Warm sector weather April 19-20 with lots of clouds, a gusty breeze, and a risk of rain showers. Current timing suggest this exits for fair weather April 21 along with mild air. Upper level low pressure should bring unsettled and somewhat cooler weather to the region to end the period, but timing and exact evolution are uncertain.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 23-27)
Best wet weather risks April 24 and again at the end of the period. We’ll need to keep an eye on river levels during the next few to several weeks as the spring warming melting the immense snow pack in northern New England and occasional wet weather events add to them. There will be flooding issues, the degree of which remains to be seen.

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 12-16)
An overcast Friday is what we have as warm air comes in above us. This will limit the surface temperature from going up too much, although it will be dry during the daylight hours. Milder air does come in at the surface tonight when you will feel the humidity notably go up for one of the first times this year, not the the point of feeling uncomfortable at all, just if you are outside you’ll notice the air being un-dry, if you’ll pardon the expression. This leads to a round of rain showers from what will loosely pass for a cold front as it moves through the region in the early morning hours of Saturday and then sluggishly makes its way off the coast of New England, allowing the showers to hang on a little longer in the morning in southeastern MA and RI. But the day will not be a wash-out, not even close to it, as these showers will exit about mid morning. The clouds, however, may linger in southern RI through Cape Cod through much of the day, and with a southwest wind being onshore there, it will be significantly cooler than the rest of the region, which makes it at least into the 60s, and over 70 in some areas. High pressure settles across northern New England by Sunday and this is going to result in more broad onshore wind from the east across the region, resulting in a cooler day overall, however if you’re at the South Coast, the day won’t feature much temperature change from the one just before it. That front that went through on Saturday morning will be moving back to the north as a warm front Sunday night and early Monday, bringing a round of rain with it. This time, the front won’t have much trouble pushing through the region, so the latest indications for Patriots Day Monday is for a mild day with just occasional rain showers. This will not be as big an impact on the Boston Marathon as a driving, steady rain and east wind would have been (like last year), and it leaves a fair chance that the Red Sox game with its late morning start can also be played. As low pressure cuts across central or northern New England later Monday it will pull that front quickly back to the south so by the end of the day Monday and especially Monday night will turn much cooler, with some additional rain showers likely. Could not completely rule out a rumble of thunder either with some colder air aloft adding to the instability. By Tuesday, it looks like a dry, windy, and rather chilly day across southeastern New England as low pressure moves away via eastern Canada and a small area of high pressure moves toward New England from the Great Lakes.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely arrive west to east. Lows 42-49. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy early to mid morning with lingering rain showers southeastern MA and RI. Remaining mostly cloudy southern RI and Cape Cod late morning on and becoming partly to mostly sunny elsewhere. Highs 52-59 Cape Cod and Islands, 60-67 southeastern MA and southern RI to southeastern CT, 67-74 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain possible end of day or nighttime, especially south and west of Boston. Highs 55-62, cooler some coastal areas. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Lows 45-52. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY (PATRIOTS DAY): Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely, but long rain-free periods possible. Rain showers becoming more widespread from west to east late-day with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 50-57 South Coast, 57-64 elsewhere. A quick temperature drop possible late-day west and north of Boston. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts possible, shifting to NW in areas west and north of Boston late-day.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely evening. Lows 42-49. wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 17-21)
Active pattern continues. A frontal boundary will be in the region April 17-18 with cloudiness at least, some chance of wet weather, and uncertain temperatures depending on the frontal position. Push of warmer air may occur about April 19 but with a risk of rain showers. Frontal system from the west should bring more rain showers to start the April 20-21 weekend but drier weather should arrive during the weekend. Timing, of course, is not nearly certain this far out.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 22-26)
Similar pattern. Best chance of wet weather comes mid period.

7:07AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 11-15)
Active April pattern means don’t get used to any one type of weather, be ready for frequent changes, starting with high pressure bringing fair weather today. Low pressure travels through the Great Lakes into southeastern Canada Friday and Saturday and its cold front moves across the region with rain showers Friday night into early Saturday. High pressure noses in enough to bring drier weather for a good part of the weekend, though showers may be slow to exit southeastern areas early Saturday and additional rain may arrive in southwestern areas by later Sunday, as low pressure moves into the Ohio Valley and its warm front approaches by then. This low will make a somewhat complex crossing of the Northeast for Monday (Patriots Day, Boston Marathon, early Red Sox game scheduled) with wet weather, but the timing and details of that rain, which may not be totally solid all the way through, is still uncertain, depending on pretty precise configuration yet to be known.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 52-59, coolest coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming light variable with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45 evening then rising temperatures overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely arrive west to east. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W late.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy early to mid morning with lingering rain showers southeastern MA and RI, then partly to mostly sunny with most clouds lingering Cape Cod and Islands. Highs 52-59 Cape Cod and Islands, 60-67 southeastern MA and southern RI to southeastern CT, 67-74 elsewhere. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain possible end of day or nighttime, especially south and west of Boston. Highs 55-62, cooler some coastal areas. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Lows 45-52. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY (PATRIOTS DAY): Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Steadier rain possible. Highs 48-55 but may end up slightly warmer. Wind E to variable, possibly S up to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 16-20)
Active pattern will continue. Current rough timing of systems places threats of wet weather late April 17 to early April 18, and late April 19 to early April 20. Temperatures start out near to below normal with plenty of wind April 16, then trend milder thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 21-25)
Similar pattern with rough timing bringing wet weather threats around April 22 and 24. Temperatures variable, averaging near to slightly above normal overall.

7:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 10-14)
Many changes, typical of April, on tap for this 5-day period. Today we have low pressure departing to the east and high pressure approaching from the west, along with a pool of chilly air above. This results in a slightly unsettled (few showers around early) but mainly dry day with a cloud/sun mix, a breeze, and a cool breeze, but without the raw feel of yesterday as the wind will be from the land rather than the cold/damp ocean. High pressure crests over the region Thursday, a nice day with light wind but that means seas breezes likely develop, so the coast will be coolest. There will be some high cloudiness streaming in from the west which indicates warming air above us. This warmer southerly flow will have overtaken the entire region by Friday when it will be fairly mild in most areas, except the typical South Coast cool spots with this air flow. A cold front will bring a round of showers through the region Friday night, which may linger over southeastern MA and RI into Saturday morning as the front is a little slow to push offshore, running out of gas. The day itself will end up quite mild as that old front will be washing out, the air mass behind it having been modified. A second cold front will pass by later in the day or evening with a push of cooler air behind that, but that front will come through with no precipitation. When we get to Sunday, high pressure will be in control to start, but the front that went by will not be far away and will start to push back to the north, with cloudiness increasing and the threat for rain eventually reappearing, with timing at this point for wet weather looking as if it may hold off until late day or nighttime on Sunday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain showers eastern MA to RI early to mid morning. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 52-59, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45 evening then rising temperatures overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 48-55 South Coast, 56-63 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely arrive west to east. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W late.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy early with lingering rain showers southeastern MA and RI, then partly to mostly sunny with most clouds lingering Cape Cod and Islands. Highs 52-59 Cape Cod and Islands, 60-67 southeastern MA and southern RI to southeastern CT, 67-74 elsewhere. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly clear overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain possible end of day or nighttime. Highs 55-62, cooler some coastal areas. Wind light variable with sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 15-19)
Monday April 15, Patriots Day, “Marathon Monday”, and a scheduled late morning start for the Red Sox .. and for the second year in a row it looks wet. But the degree and timing of wet weather remains in question pending the speed, track, and orientation of low pressure, so much ironing out of the details is to come. Progressive pattern expected to continue and result in dry weather April 16-17 and a rain shower risk April 18 based on current timing, with dry weather returning at the end of the period. Temperatures which start out on the cooler side of normal should then trend somewhat milder.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 20-24)
A complex pattern with a mix of blocking (higher latitudes) and progression (lower latitudes) results in more changing weather here. Currently liking a mild and dry trend to start followed by a cooler and wetter finish to the period.

7:10AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 9-13)
My opinion of the weather for today has been the same since about last Thursday, and that is we’d see a marine layer in place with chilly air, especially closer to the coast, with a likely overcast sky and patchy drizzle/fog. The uncertainty was whether or not we’d see any rain showers or steady rain, and if so whether or not it would have an impact on the playing of the first game of the baseball season at Fenway Park. It still looks like, unless that game runs long, that they will get it in without the rain, but definitely with the damp and raw chill in the air. That’s spring in New England. It’s happened like this many times, and since that big ocean we live next to isn’t going anywhere, it will happen many more times. About those showers, it’s a cold front approaching, which will bring drying air in tomorrow. Is it really a cold front if many portions of eastern MA, southern NH, and RI end up milder tomorrow than they will be today? Technically yes. Why? The marine layer of air at the surface is rather shallow. If you travel upward a thousand feet, it’s it will be much milder. Think of the marine layer as an extension of the surface. The rest of the weather is going on above it while we’re socked in. That mild air above will indeed by replaced by colder air up there tomorrow, but here at the surface as we shift to a land breeze and push the marine layer away, it will actually be milder during the mid part of the day behind the cold front. High pressure moves into the region Wednesday night then offshore gradually during Thursday, which will be a nice day but with a cooling coastal sea breeze. A strong low pressure area will move into the western Great Lakes Friday then across southeastern Canada Saturday. A warm front will cross the region early Friday with some cloudiness and a cold front will approach from the west later Friday, which turns out cloudier and eventually wet. This cold front will be the first of 2 parented by that low, and the air will not be all the chilly behind the first one, so Saturday ends up dry and breezy but fairly mild, until the second cold front comes across later in the day with some clouds (no precipitation) and a shifting wind leading to a chillier ending to the day.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle. Patchy fog. Rain showers arriving west to east late-day, may be mixed with sleet/snow southern NH and northern MA. Slight chance of thunder. Highs 45-52 coast, 52-59 interior. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to SE later.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely early evening, ending west to east late evening. An additional passing rain/sleet/snow shower possible across southern NH and far northern MA late evening or overnight. Lows 34-41. Wind variable up to 10 MPH shifting to W 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45 evening then rising temperatures overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers arrive west to east during afternoon. Highs 48-55 South Coast, 56-63 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W late.
SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 57-64, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 14-18)
Latest examination of the upcoming pattern shifts my thinking on the next system a little to a faster and more progressive situation, with warm front approaching April 14 turning a bright start into a cloudy and wet finish, but the system may move so quickly, regardless of whether low pressure tracks south of, over, or north of southern New England, that the threat of wet weather may diminish rather quickly during April 15, which happens to feature the Boston Marathon as well as a late morning Red Sox start. Will fine-tune this forecast. Progressive pattern expected to continue and result in dry weather April 16-17 and a rain shower risk April 18 based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 19-23)
This pattern during this period may be in the configuration of what I call a progressive block. Sounds contradictory but not really. It’s a set-up with high latitude blocking that is kind of squished north but systems to the south keep moving from west to east instead of cutting off. It results in a pattern here that probably brings 1 or 2 relatively minor storm systems across the region during the period, but no long-lasting unsettled weather. Since medium range has been difficult of late with MJO being neutral (for one thing) and seemingly messing up the medium range guidance, will really just keep in mind that the weather pattern during this period may end up different than currently expected and will keep watching it.

7:01AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 8-12)
Rainy days and Mondays… That great song by the Carpenters always enters my mind when those 2 occur together, but they don’t get me down because as you all know by now, I’m not one of the majority that feel down on Mondays and/or rainy days. I love both of them. But many of you may feel down for part of the day at least as we get a slug of rain through here mainly during this morning. Don’t expect any clearing though this afternoon, even though the steadiest rain will be gone. There will still be a additional showers and perhaps even a rumble of thunder as some warmer and unstable air crosses the region, kind of. The kind of part is because you won’t feel the warm air down here at ground level as we’ll have had a marine layer of air take over on a low level northeast wind, turning it quite cool and damp. And as you know, when that happens around here in the spring it’s often very hard to dislodge that. And that will be the case yet again, as this marine layer of air hangs on through Tuesday as well, as another low pressure area heads for northern NY via the Great Lakes. However, this low will decide to morph its way around the edge of the colder air and end up passing just south of the region Tuesday night, getting to the east of the region Wednesday. As I’ve been talking about in previous blogs, the Red Sox home opener is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon, and for several days my expectations for that event were chilly/raw/overcast. This has not changed. There is a risk of drizzle, but for now I am optimistic that more significant rainfall in the form of numerous showers will hold off until sometime after the game, unless it’s a longer than average game. As colder air starts to work in, some of these showers may be in the form of ice pellets in southern NH by Tuesday evening, and even colder air means showers of rain/sleet/snow working southward across the region during Wednesday morning. There would not be any accumulation of snow fell, however, so no worries on that. Improving weather arrives later Wednesday, though it will be a chilly and breezy day. High pressure builds in for nicer weather Thursday, and the high moves offshore and allows milder air in for Friday, but the first of 2 cold fronts approaching from the west will also bring a rain shower threat by later Friday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Rain likely in the morning. Areas of drizzle/fog this afternoon along with a risk of a passing shower and slight risk of a thunderstorm. Highs 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Risk of a rain shower southeastern areas early. Lows 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle. Patchy fog. Rain showers arriving west to east late-day. Highs 45-52 coast, 52-59 interior. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely, may mix with sleet southern NH evening then rain/sleet/snow showers possible all areas overnight. . Lows 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain/snow showers early. Highs 48-55. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 52-59, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45 evening then rising temperatures overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Late-day rain showers. Highs 48-55 South Coast, 56-63 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 13-17)
Dry weather returns with a brisk breeze April 13 but mild ahead of a secondary cold front which passes late-day and brings brief chill at night to early April 14, which will also be fair but less breezy and eventually milder. Watching the April 15-16 period for possible impact by low pressure, but leaning toward a slower arrival with the possibility of getting through much of April 15 before rain arrives. Improving weather at the end of the period but cool air dominant.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 18-22)
Hard to time systems but the pattern still looks somewhat active but fairly progressive. Will lean toward dry weather and brief warm up early period, unsettled mid period, then fair with a slight cooling trend thereafter.

7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 7-11)
No big changes, just some tweaks on this Sunday morning update. After Saturday’s damp start, the weather turned out very nice across the area. Today will be another nice one, but the location of high pressure allows sea breezes to develop, some coastal areas will be cooler today. Then we enter the dank tank as high pressure in eastern Canada and waves of low pressure that initially want to travel toward the St. Lawrence via New York do the typical spring detour and warp themselves in a way to travel just south of southern New England. This combination is a chilly one with dominant cloudiness and some wet weather as the lows pass by, with the greatest threats of rain coming Monday during the day and Tuesday at night. Still thinking the Red Sox get their home opener in, but it will be in less than pleasant conditions, as discussed on previous blog posts. By Wednesday, we should get into a little more of a northerly air flow with some drying. High pressure over the region on Thursday will provide fair and somewhat milder weather.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 55-62 except cooling back through the 50s along the coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind light N.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely in the morning. Areas of drizzle/fog and scattered light rain afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle. Patchy fog. Highs 45-52 coast, 52-59 interior. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of drizzle/fog. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 52-59, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 12-16)
Brief warm-up possible on April 12 before a shot of chilly air returns for April 13 followed by a quick warm-up on April 14. Watching for another storm to impact the region in the April 15-16 time frame with rain and possible wind.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 17-21)
More chilly and possible damp weather to start the period then a trend to drier and milder thereafter.

9:45AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 6-10)
A quick update on this Saturday morning. Some of you may have seen snowflakes and/or heard sleet pinging off your windows last evening as precipitation fell into dry air and chilled off the air just enough to support some frozen stuff, but that’s long gone now and in comes some milder air for your weekend as it dries out today and remains dry through Sunday. The difference on Sunday will be an onshore wind developing in coastal areas which end up cooler than they will be today (in most areas at least). Still, a nice weekend overall. Our weather situation becomes more complex as we get to the new week, with a low pressure system bringing rain into the region for at least the first half of Monday. What happens after that is going to depend on the position of a frontal boundary that trails behind the first low pressure area. Some parts of the region can end up in the 60s or be in the 40s depending on what side of the boundary they are on. For now, I am going to lean toward the cooler side, with air from the north and east coming in behind the initial low and never really being able to recover all the way through Tuesday, and probably even Wednesday. We will have to watch for an additional low pressure area close enough for more rain later Tuesday, hopefully after the Red Sox home opener, which may be taking place in very cool and raw weather.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Early showers depart Cape Cod area and clouds/drizzle/patchy fog dissipate elsewhere with a sun/cloud mix from mid morning onward.
Highs 52-59 south-facing shores, 58-65 elsewhere with 65-72 possible interior valley locations. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 35-42. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 55-62 except cooling back through the 50s along the coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind light N.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely in the morning. Areas of drizzle/fog and scattered light rain afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle. Patchy fog. Highs 45-52 coast, 52-59 interior. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of drizzle/fog. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 48-55. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 11-15)
Pattern will feature high pressure in Canada and waves of low pressure passing south of New England, possibly over New England. This is a cooler/unsettled pattern overall with wet weather likely centered around April 11-12. May briefly warm up toward the end of the period with fair weather returning.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 16-20)
Pattern may try to readjust, starting cooler and ending milder, but it remains to be seen if that will be a longer-term shift.

7:09AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 5-9)
The pattern we see develop during this 5-day period is typical of spring – high pressure in Canada, series of low pressure areas passing near or south of southern New England. It’s a cool and unsettled pattern overall, but that doesn’t mean we can’t sneak in some milder weather, and we will do just that for a part of the weekend. The first low pressure system brings wet weather by tonight to very early Saturday, but we do salvage a good part of the weekend, later Saturday through much of Sunday, with dry weather, before the next low arrives for a rainy Monday. Tuesday, the Boston Red Sox home opener, does not look like a stellar spring day but rather a more typical one with onshore flow and at least a fair amount of cloudiness. It does, however, look like Monday’s steadier rain will be out of the picture by then. If things were to move a little more quickly, we could get rid of the easterly wind for a more northerly or even westerly one, but I would say odds are against that at this point.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Clouding over. Rain arriving west and south of Boston late afternoon, overspreading all areas early evening. Highs 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain evening, may briefly mix with or turn to snow some areas mainly west of Boston favoring higher elevations, tapering to drizzle and scattered rain showers with patchy fog overnight. Lows 35-42 evening, rising through the 40s overnight. Wind SE 5-15 MPH becoming S.
SATURDAY: Cloudy morning with areas of fog and drizzle and a chance of rain showers early. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny afternoon. Highs 52-59 south-facing shores, 58-65 elsewhere with 65-72 possible interior valley locations. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 35-42. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 55-62 except cooling back through the 50s along the coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind light N.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain tapering to drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 38-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle. Patchy fog. Highs 45-52 coast, 52-59 interior. Wind E to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 10-14)
Pattern will feature high pressure in Canada and waves of low pressure passing south of New England, possibly over New England. This is a cooler/unsettled pattern overall with wet weather likely centered around April 11. May briefly warm up toward the end of the period with fair weather returning.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 15-19)
Overall similar pattern looks like it may remain in place. Too early to tell which days would be coolest and which potentially milder, and which will be wetter, but will fine-tune going forward.

7:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 4-8)
The big storm that went by the region yesterday and caused all the wind last night is still having some impact today with a gusty breeze, but high pressure moving closer to the region will bring dry weather. A weak disturbance and some cold air aloft will pop some passing clouds today but overall a nice day. Low pressure approaches from the west Friday, spreading clouds back in, with wet weather by late day and nighttime for most if not all of the region, lingering until very early Saturday before it departs, leaving us with a decent weekend. By Monday, the next low pressure system is in with more wet weather.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-37. Wind light N to NE.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain develops by late afternoon but may start as snow/mix in some areas. Highs 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain, tapering to drizzle with patchy fog overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy/fog/drizzle and a chance of rain showers morning. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming SW.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62 except cooling back along the coast. Wind light variable with coastal sea breezes.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 35-42. Wind light N.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 9-13)
Pattern will feature high pressure in Canada and waves of low pressure passing south of New England, possibly over New England. This is a cooler/unsettled pattern overall and will have to work out timing detail for wet weather. The first date-of-importance is April 9 for Red Sox home opener which currently looks like a damp start then drying out, but possibly not that warm at all.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 14-18)
A sneaky warmer day or 2 is possible but the overall pattern doesn’t look like it wants to change too much through mid month.

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 3-7)
The balance was tipped slightly too mild and not enough precipitation intensity for the snow to visit most of the region this morning. Still possible some mix occurs before mid morning in southeastern MA under a heavier band of precipitation, which has been generally rain. Either way, the bomb of a storm that is causing this will pass southeast of Cape Cod today and intensify a bit more as it heads toward eastern Canada. Its expanding wind field will cause a moderate to strong west wind later today as the air dries out rapidly. But this drying air coming off the hills and mountains to the west will also allow it to get rather mild, so this time you won’t be feeling the chill of winter behind the departing storm. It will turn cooler for Thursday and Friday however, and a disturbance may kick off some clouds Thursday before a low pressure area from the Ohio Valley spreads a more vast cloud canopy into the region Friday, followed by a rain threat later Friday, that may start as snow briefly in some areas. The bulk of this system will move through Friday night and may make the very start of the weekend gloomy early Saturday, but improving conditions will follow for the balance of the weekend as high pressure takes over. It will end up on the milder side, but coastal areas probably turn cooler with sea breezes on Sunday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast start with rain, may mix with snow briefly southeastern MA, then a clearing trend west to east. Highs 50-56 Cape Cod, 57-63 elsewhere. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially eastern coastal areas morning, then W 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH afternoon.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35. Wind W 15-30 MPH and gusty early, diminishing slightly overnight.
THURSDAY: Sun then clouds. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind light N to NE.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain develops afternoon but may start as snow/mix in some areas. Highs 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with any snow/mix going to rain, then rain tapering to drizzle with patchy fog overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy/fog/drizzle and a chance of rain showers morning. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 32-39. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62 except cooling back along the coast. Wind light variable with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 8-12)
A quick push of warm air is possible early in the period before we return to a cooler and somewhat unsettled pattern. There’s some uncertainty as to how it plays out at this point. Much fine-tuning to do.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 13-17)
Chilly start, brief warm up, then may cool down yet again. Overall pattern should be drier however, but this is still a low confidence forecast for now.

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 2-6)
High pressure retreats to the east today but the day itself will be nice after a cold start. Low pressure will intensify off the Mid Atlantic Coast later today and track north northeastward, passing southeast of New England Wednesday. Its closest pass during the first half of Wednesday will put its precipitation shield over southeastern New England, as mainly rain, but can still get a mix with or flip to snow toward the end if it is heavy enough. This remains possible pretty much anywhere except Cape Cod, despite a short range model shift slightly eastward with lighter precipitation. These models do not always pick up banding features that can result in enhanced precipitation, so I’m not going to blindly model-follow and just wipe the chance off the board. Either way, it’s all gone midday Wednesday and clearing quickly follows for an afternoon much different than the morning was. A cooler shot of air arrives Thursday along with an upper level disturbance that will bring some cloudiness to the region. After that, low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley Friday, and wet weather is expected by Friday night (this may start as snow in some areas) lingering into at least part of Saturday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind light NE shifting to SE.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving south to north, may mix with or change to snow starting with higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH then work eastward toward dawn. Lows 30-37. Wind E 10-20 MPH shifting to N, gusts above 20 MPH interior, above 30 MPH coast, and possibly above 40 MPH Cape Cod.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain/mix/snow except just rain Cape Cod, accumulations of a coating to 1 1/2 inch possible if it is heavy enough, otherwise little or no accumulation, ending as rain by late morning west to east. Clearing afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY: Sun then clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind light N to NE.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain develops afternoon but may start as snow/mix in some areas. Highs 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with any snow/mix going to rain, then rain tapering to drizzle with patchy fog overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy/fog/drizzle and a chance of rain showers morning. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 7-11)
Warm front approaches April 7 and after that it’s a little uncertain whether or not we get into the warm sector sometime April 8 and/or April 9 before we’re back on the cooler side of the boundary. Unsettled weather is possible any time during this 5-day period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 12-16)
This period may start and end cool and somewhat unsettled with a chance of a fair, milder interlude between. Low confidence forecast.

7:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 1-5)
March came in like a lion, and according to the old weather proverb should have exited like a lamb. Almost did. The weekend was certainly mild enough for a good portion of it to put one in the lamb frame of mind, but the rain and flip to colder air before it ended might have made you think more zebra. Well, whatever you call it, March is over, and now it’s onto April. I’ll spare you any April Fools Day jokes today and let those more qualified to fib handle that. Here it’s just time to get to the weather outlook, and that’s the absolute truth. High pressure approaches today, with us on the chilly side of it with a gusty northwest wind, making the day feel more late winter-like. High pressure moves across the region tonight then to the east of the region Tuesday while low pressure off the Mid Atlantic Coast intensifies and moves north northeastward. This large ocean storm would be a significant impact if its track was going to be a little further north and west, but it will be more of a side swipe with some rain/snow in the early hours of Wednesday before it scoots away to sea. Behind it will come a chilly north to northwest air flow later Wednesday through Thursday. An upper disturbance may kick off some cloudiness on Thursday. By Friday, an approaching low pressure area from the Ohio Valley will spread more cloudiness and eventual wet weather into the region, mainly rain, that may start as a mix or snow for some locations with just enough cold air lingering at the start. When we get to the end of the first 5 days of the month you’ll remember them as being on the cold and somewhat unsettled side, despite being dry the majority of the time.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Clouding up. Highs 40-47. Wind light NE shifting to SE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain/mix/snow possible favoring southern and eastern areas late night. Lows 30-37. Wind E 10-20 MPH and gusty shifting to N.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain favoring Cape Cod early, then clearing. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY: Sun then clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 30-37. Wind light N to NE.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain develops but may start as snow/mix in some areas. Highs 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 6-10)
Low pressure departs April 6 which starts gloomy and ends brighter, but cool. Fair, milder inland and cool coast April 7-8, then a warm-up April 9 before unsettled and cooler weather arrives to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 11-15)
Unsettled and cool start to the period, then fair weather returns with a gradual warm-up toward near normal temperatures.