DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 4)
Labor Day Weekend: 2 1/2 out of 3 ain’t bad? Looks like a decent weekend, really, for southeastern New England. Our unsettled weather will probably hold off until most activities have wrapped up and people who were away are on their way back home, as a warm front crossing the region Monday brings a wet weather threat, but a lot of it probably waiting until later in the day or nighttime to pass through this area. Before that, it’s all about high pressure and a gradual wind shift from northwest today to more northeasterly on Sunday, so a cooling trend will result, but still quite nice. Out of the 3 days, today’s your best beach day. Once we get beyond the weekend, the feel of summer returns as a southwesterly air flow takes over. By later Wednesday, a cold front will be approaching, but may be doing so slowly enough so that some areas may make a late season run at 90. All the while, we’ll be watching Dorian to the south. For the last couple days, I have been leaning toward a scenario that keeps the center of the hurricane from reaching Florida. I am nearly certain of this now. The northern Bahamas will not be spared. And as the hurricane starts a northward movement, the Carolina coast will be vulnerable for at least a very close pass and possibly a landfall. A quicker acceleration of this hurricane would result in the possibility of a PRE event up here as early as Wednesday night, but for the moment any impact directly or indirectly related to Dorian is likely to be after this 5-day period.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind NW 5-10 MPH but some coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62, coolest inland. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 55-62. Wind E under 10 MPH.
MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Variably cloudy. Afternoon showers possible favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 71-78. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely evening. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Humid. Lows 61-68. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 82-89 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 63-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. A late-day shower or thunderstorm possible mainly north and west of Boston. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)
The September 5-6 period is vulnerable for any impact from the passage of Dorian offshore, pending the exact track and speed of the storm. Certainly rough surf along the coast. There is the possibility of showers or a period of rain somewhere during this time frame as well. Drier weather is expected for the September 7-9 period as high pressure builds in. This outlook is different, timing-wise, than previously. This is why I had been mentioning previously that the outlooks were low confidence. Have tropical systems in the area, even without direct impact, can play havoc with prediction.
DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)
Still looking for a northward-displaced jet stream over a flat high pressure ridge and domination by surface high pressure much of the period as well, leading to a drier and warmer than average stretch of weather. There will probably be a couple temperature swings within this, however.