Saturday Forecast

8:13AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 4)
On this final day of November, a day which will feature weather similar to the next-to-last day of November (chilly, breezy, and dry), the fine-tuning continues regarding the storm threat that starts off our December. It’s a broad area of low pressure, the center of which will be a redevelopment of a mature / occluded storm system in the Plains, moving eastward and passing just south of New England on a west to east track, but also elongating and occluding itself as it does so due to the nature of the upper level pattern above it. This makes it a longer-duration storm, despite its eastward progression, with precipitation beginning as early as Sunday afternoon and ending as late as Tuesday afternoon. The details of what happens between the start and end window are the puzzle to figure out, and the reasoning for what follows is based on computer models often struggling with precipitation types, low centers, precipitation amounts, and surface temperatures in this “early-season” set-up. So instead of analyzing every piece of data, every model, and reading everybody else’s forecasts to find fault or agreement with them, I’ve resorted to just simple analysis and experience, whatever that’s worth – and I guess we’ll find out what it’s worth in this case. This is how I think it plays out for southeastern New England: Storm’s precip arrives west to east Sunday afternoon and evening as snow most locations, maybe rain or mix Cape Cod and South Coast as surface temperatures will be marginal there. Precipitation intensity picks up rather quickly Sunday evening, still as snow for a good part of the region, and this is when most of our accumulation will take place. Early numbers, maybe a coating South Coast and Cape Cod if it snows long enough, then it goes to rain, a solid coating (1/2 inch or so) up to 2 inches across the bulk of southern and central RI through southeastern MA and right up to Logan before going to rain during the night, 2-4 inches along the I-95 belt including south central MA and eastern CT in general before going to a sleet/ice mix and probably to rain eventually, 4-8 inches for the I-495 belt from its ending near the MA/NH border down to around I-90 and all points west of there before going to sleet/ice mix with potential pockets of plain rain for a while, with greater than 8 inch amounts possible in the highest elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH where it snows for the longest. Once we get into the day Monday, some drying aloft between the newer low and its older parent low still to the west will likely limit the precipitation somewhat, and any snow over the interior will struggle to accumulate. Monday night as the parent low in its dying stage also passes just to the south of the region, it will turn somewhat colder from northwest to southeast and we should see a switch back to snow, but also a gradual break up of the precipitation area into a more patchy or snow showery nature that will linger into Tuesday morning. Additional snow accumulation is possible from this back-end snow but at this time I don’t think it will amount to all that much. There is just enough uncertainty with this part of the system to keep a close eye on it in case it ends up being a little more organized here. Regardless, whatever is left on the ground will do an early December freeze-up as it gets cold later Tuesday and Tuesday night, along with a gusty wind, but it will also be clearing out at that time. Oh yes, I almost forgot, there will be life after “the storm” too so what will the weather do? Well in a fast-moving pattern we’ll already have another trough approaching on Wednesday so look for some additional cloudiness to arrive and perhaps some snow showers, although it already looks like the main energy with the initial system passes well to the north and a new low evolves too far offshore to have any significant impact.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing gradually. Wind chill in the 20s in the morning.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow, except rain or mix South Coast, arriving mid to late afternoon west to east. Highs 33-40. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow I-495 belt from about I-90 northward, snow to mix/rain elsewhere, rain most likely closer to the coastline. See above for snow accumulation info. Lows 28-33 interior, 34-39 coast. Wind NE to E increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.
MONDAY: Overcast. Mix/snow southwestern NH and north central MA, mix/rain elsewhere, diminishing but turning back to snow further east later in the day. Highs 32-37 interior, 38-43 coast. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NE.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of snow except mix near the coast and still some rain possible Cape Cod. Lows 26-31 interior, 32-37 coast. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with passing snow showers. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Icy areas on untreated surfaces. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Possible snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 5-9)
Low pressure offshore moves away, breezy and chilly December 5 but mainly dry. Trough pushes through later December 6 or early December 7 with a snow shower threat but no major storm, otherwise mainly dry and chilly through December 8 and warming up somewhat end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 10-14)
Passing trough brings rain/snow showers December 10-11. Low pressure system brings snow/rain threat about December 13. Temperatures not too far from normal.

Friday Forecast

8:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
If you were out shopping overnight, welcome back! Now get some sleep while the sun shines on this bright late November day! It will be a gusty and chilly one, however, due to air flow between low pressure well offshore to the east and a high pressure area over southeastern Canada. This set-up hangs on through Saturday as well, and then the next in a parade of storm systems arrives during Sunday, and this elongated system will take its time passing by so it will be impacting us through Monday as a precipitation event, and even into Tuesday as a wind event along with a few possible lingering snow showers. The main precipitation shield will likely start as snow for all areas except possibly the South Coast and Cape Cod, and will stay mostly snow in southwestern NH and central MA, while areas to the east and southeast of here eventually see a change to rain due to the warming influence of an east wind off the still relatively warm ocean water. However some of these areas will go back to mix and snow as the storm begins to pull away and it starts to cool down both at the surface and aloft Monday night. We still have a couple more days to work out details on this so I will hold off on snow accumulation numbers beyond just a general idea in the forecast below. Lastly, just a reminder that if you missed the nice celestial sky show, it happens again this evening at dusk in the southwestern sky, with the crescent moon sharing the sky with Saturn, Venus, and Jupiter.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 20s at times.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the 10s at times.
SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing gradually. Wind chill in the 20s in the morning.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow, except rain or mix South Coast, arriving mid to late afternoon west to east. Highs 33-40. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow I-495 belt from about I-90 northward, snow to mix/rain elsewhere, rain most likely closer to the coastline. Light to moderate snow accumulation away from coastal areas especially I-95 belt northwestward. Lows 30-37. Wind NE to E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.
MONDAY: Overcast. Mix/snow southwestern NH and north central MA, mix/rain elsewhere. Highs 33-38 interior, 38-43 coast. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NE.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with any mix back to snow interior, rain to mix/snow closer to the coast, additional minor accumulation possible. Breaking clouds but lingering snow showers overnight. Lows 27-34. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with passing snow showers. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 4-8)
A progressive low pressure trough will swing through from west to east later December 4 into early December 5 with a few rain/snow showers here and a new storm forming offshore but too far out for direct impact. Next trough, likely weaker, moves through and drives a cold front across the region with a few rain/snow showers either nighttime December 6 or sometime December 7, then high pressure moves in with seasonably chilly weather for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 9-13)
High pressure hangs on with dry weather to start the period, a disturbance comes through with a minor precipitation threat in the December 10-11 time frame with a broader area of unsettled weather threatening later in the period.

Thursday Forecast

7:41AM

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you!

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 28-DECEMBER 2)
If you’re an early riser on this Thanksgiving morning, especially in eastern areas, you woke up to rainy conditions. That is a lobe of energy traveling southeastward across the area, one the bridge between an old low pressure system to our northwest and a newly developed low that formed and triggered showers and even some thunderstorms over the region last night and is now in the process of turning into a powerhouse storm as it moves away via the Gulf of Maine. As the storm pulls away today and high pressure starts to nose southward from eastern Canada we will set up a gusty north to northwest wind, delivering chilly air. That air is dry and will help push the early wet weather away during the morning and midday, with just a few lingering rain or snow showers possible for any road races and football games. The chilly, dry, breezy weather will continue for Friday and into Saturday as well. And so ends November. When December arrives, we’ll get early practice on tracking a storm that includes some frozen precipitation. No we’re not about to open December with a big snowstorm, but we will have cold air in place as a broad precipitation shield from approaching low pressure arrives late Sunday or Sunday night, and some areas north and west of Boston will see some accumulating snow before warm enough air gets involved to change it to mixed precipitation or rain. Areas closer to the city and to the southeast may start briefly as snow or mix then go right to rain. While this low pressure area will track just south of the region, at this time of year the ocean water, and in this case the upper air, will be too warm to support snow for long over most of the region. However, any unsettled weather can have some impact on people traveling back into the area or heading back to colleges after the Thanksgiving break.
The forecast details…
TODAY (THANKSGIVING): Cloudy early morning with rain tapering to showers. Breaking clouds mid to late morning with passing coastal rain showers and isolated rain/snow showers interior. Decreasing clouds / increasing sun afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill in the lower 30s to upper 20s at times.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill in the 10s.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill in the 20s at times.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill in the 10s at times.
SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing gradually. Wind chill in the 20s in the morning.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix (mix/rain South Coast) late day or night. Highs 35-42. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow/mix along and northwest of I-95 going to mix/rain but some accumulation of snow/sleet possible. Mix to rain elsewhere. Lows 32-40. Wind E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.
MONDAY: Overcast with rain (possible mix far northwest) morning, tapering to rain and snow showers west to east afternoon, then a steadier period of rain/mix possible southeastern MA and RI late-day. Highs 37-44. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 3-7)
Low pressure to the east, high pressure to the northwest means a gusty breezy with dry and chilly weather December 3. But a west to east pattern moves things along and the next system threatens the region with some rain/snow later December 4 to early December 5, but the early trend is for this system to evolve too far offshore for a significant impact. After that threat, dry and chilly weather is expected

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 8-12)
General west to east flow. Dry weather should dominate in the December 8-10 time frame with unsettled weather (rain or snow threat) later in the period (December 11-12).

Wednesday Forecast

9:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)
I’m a bit late with the post this morning so right to it with a quick update. Only minor tweaks for this forecast with everything very similar to yesterday’s update. Mature low pressure moving from the Great Lakes into the St. Lawrence Valley today and tonight sends an occluded front across the region with a couple bands of rain, timed to move west to east across the region to slow any late-day / evening commute. But hey, it’s not snow right? This moves out overnight as low pressure redevelops in the Gulf of Maine then moves eastward. A lobe of energy on what was the old frontal boundary will swing through southeastern New England during the early to mid morning hours of Thanksgiving Day, producing lots of clouds and possibly a couple passing rain or snow showers. This will not be a major factor for morning road races and football games, but the wind will start to pick up during this time and it will be on the chilly side by then, so keep this in mind if you plan to be outside watching or partaking in any of these events. By the afternoon, drier air will be taking over and sunshine will be more dominant, as will a chilly breeze. These breezy and chilly conditions will persist through Friday and into Saturday as the low to the east becomes a beast and a big high pressure area sits in eastern Canada. This high pressure area will initially do its part to hold off the next low pressure area moving toward the region, but clouds will move in by Sunday, and precipitation by Sunday night, which may start as snow over a good portion of the region with just enough cold air in place. Will fine-tune this as we get closer.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Thickening overcast. Scattered to numerous rain showers mainly central MA and southwestern NH later in the day. Highs 50-57. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy evening with numerous rain showers west to east, probably in a couple bands. Mostly cloudy overnight with isolated rain showers. Lows 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with passing rain and snow showers morning. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny afternoon.
Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing gradually.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix (mix/rain South Coast) late day or night. Highs 35-42. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 2-6)
Low pressure should pass just south of the region December 2 but close enough to bring enough warm air in both surface and aloft for a mainly rain event (after a possible start as snow the night before). Will still have to monitor for any changes in the storm track. Windy/colder/drier December 3 behind this system. Next low pressure system threatens later December 4 to early December 5 with rain or snow but may be too far offshore for significant impact. Dry, chilly weather follows this.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 7-11)
General west to east flow. Dry weather should dominate in the December 7-9 time frame with unsettled weather (rain or snow threat) later in the period.

Tuesday Forecast

7:49AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 26-30)
Here come the final 5 days of November, with Thanksgiving right in the middle of them. So many people are thinking of errands and pre-holiday travel, and today will be a great day for both, at least in terms of weather, which will be fair and mild under high pressure. Things will change Wednesday as low pressure tracks north of the region while maturing and sending an occluding frontal system through the region. This will be good for some rain shower activity as it will be mild. This will not be a major factor in travel – just resulting in less-than-ideal conditions. For Thanksgiving Day, Thursday, this low pressure area will be moving away but rather significant by then, so we’ll catch its departing energy first thing in the morning with a few rain/snow showers around, and feel its wind throughout the day as chilly air arrives. This won’t be anything close to the arctic blast that we experienced last Thanksgiving, however, but if you do plan to travel or be out at football games or running races, keep in mind it will be rather chilly and breezy. If you are a late-night shopper, or just traveling home later at night after a long after-dinner nap, expect it to be cold with a biting breeze, but again not as harsh as one year ago. This chilly, dry, breezy weather will persist through “Black Friday” and into Saturday as well as we’ll be in a northerly flow between low pressure well offshore and a large high pressure area in east central Canada.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing rain showers, mainly afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Passing rain showers. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Partly sunny. Brief light rain/snow shower possible early to mid morning. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing gradually.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 1-5)
Sprawling low pressure approaches from the west early in the period and while it will be a large system, its track is crucial for how much precipitation and what type it takes occurs December 1 into December 2. There should be rain/snow line involved and we’ll take a closer look at this event in the days ahead. Follow this with drier, colder weather and then a smaller system with a risk of snow/mix showers later December 4 or December 5.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 6-10)
A general west to east flow should bring 1 or 2 disturbances across the region with precipitation threats during this period. Temperatures swings should work out to near to slightly below normal for the period.

Winter Forecast 2019-2020

This winter’s outlook is the hardest one I’ve had to work out out of the last 3 or 4. There are factors that support different outcomes, although they do tend to appear to lean in a particular direction. To start, I’ve often mentioned that the weather pattern from late October and especially November can be a good indicator of the pattern for the upcoming winter, and in recent years the correlation of mild November to mild winter and cold November to cold winter has been pretty solid (last year being an exception). This November (with a few days left) is running up to a few degrees colder than normal so that would support a colder winter. One missing factor is an influence of either El Nino or La Nina, as we are going to sit in basically neutral ENSO territory. This tends to limit the activity in the subtropical jet stream, often the fuel for winter storms. However, limited activity still leaves the door open for some events to occur. Factors that support colder and/or snowy weather include solar minimum, which is very low sunspot activity, a large area of warmer than average water in the northeastern Pacific which tends to promote high pressure ridging in the western US and a colder trough further east, some warmer water in the northern Atlantic which can help promote high pressure there and induce a blocking pattern, early season rapidly advanced snowcover in Siberia and Canada which builds a cold reservoir, and lower than average sea ice in the Arctic which tends to warm the polar region and send lobes of colder air southward. Also watching a somewhat persistent tendency for the western Indian Ocean to be stormy while the east is rather dry, and this will impact one of the wildcard indices, MJO, which played havoc with last year’s forecast, even though many factors were different, and could very well do so again. You’ll hear that talked about during the season in blog discussions and comments. Another wildcard for the upcoming winter is the possibility of a sudden stratospheric warming event, one that is often forecast but does not always behave as forecast. This event can trigger polar vortex disruption as well and send lobes of much colder air southward. This does not always mean your particular region is going to end up in one of them, as there can be a misconception that this event means cold/stormy everywhere. So this and the MJO lurk like 2 atmospheric and oceanic bullies waiting to kick all the pieces around on your board game. How will it impact the winter forecast below? Time will tell. *** It’s important for me to note here that the biggest wild card to me is the stratospheric warming event and its timing and impact, which could essentially result in nearly a reversal of the expected January & later winter patterns, as what I have noted for February could occur earlier, and then a pattern similar to what I describe for January could occur coming out of that later in the winter. So with lower confidence than I’ve had the last few years, here’s an attempt at a month-by-month breakdown and seasonal overview of what I think is most likely for December 2019 until late March 2020.

DECEMBER
Making a strong case for the “as goes November, so goes the winter” correlation, the pattern for December looks like it wants to hold onto a lot of what November showed us, a lot of chill, a few storm events, but not persistently unsettled. But there is also a little bit of “remember October” in this pattern too, with the tendency for a ridge in the Southeast to want to be there at times. For New England, this pattern would likely result in regular passages of disturbances carrying Pacific moisture across the country but lacking re-energizing from the Gulf of Mexico, and this time with a more significant reservoir of cold air just to the north to either work with or pull down into the region after passage, depending on storm track details. A little more Southeast ridge, and we see a longer mild spell with shorter cold, while a little less Southeast ridge would lead to a more northwesterly flow and colder air more of the time here. We should see a bit of both, with the second scenario being slightly dominant. Something to watch in a pattern like this is the ability of a boundary to set-up west-to-east, parallel to the upper level flow, which can lead to larger areas of unsettled weather, even without a strong storm. This makes forecasting precipitation a little difficult, because I’d want to lean drier due to less subtropical moisture, but closer to normal because of the activity in the polar jet stream. And then you have the question of whether or not your precipitation episodes time with colder air (for frozen precipitation) or milder air (for rain). Coming out of the gate somewhat uncertain is not a great sign for forecasting deeper into the winter, but it is what it is. I’m going to rely on an old friend, “pattern persistence”, and go with a combination of weather patterns we saw progressing through the autumn.
Temperature: Slightly below normal as cold shots slightly outweigh milder interludes.
Precipitation: Slightly above normal, relying on one elongated boundary weather event to push totals up to achieve this.
Snow: Slightly above normal (but will need good timing of moisture & cold air to achieve this).

JANUARY
The changes in the large scale impacts talked above will be few, but subtle changes in things such as the wet west / dry east Indian Ocean pattern and the location of the warmer water in the northeastern Pacific and North Atlantic, as well as impacts from the possible SST warming event will all play roles. Since these are uncertain, the forecast itself carries a high degree of uncertainty, so I’ll have to rely on a little bit of climate modeling, some of which has indicated a relaxation of the Indian Ocean situation with a little less activity west and more east, but just a lesser degree of what is going on there now. This could allow MJO’s influence to become more prominent. Time the favorable-for-snow phases with some cold air and perhaps a temporarily active southern jet stream and we could grab ourselves a classic snowstorm. I think that’s going to be hard to do and we’ll have to rely on polar jet clipper type systems at least to start out the new year. Perhaps with time some things come together for a larger system from the south, which could just as easily track further west and be a bigger rain producer as it could be an offshore classic snowstorm. It’s a gamble and a guess with so many factors that can pull one way or another this particular season. I think if we end up with a snowy month this winter, this is going to be the one. ** See note about January / February patterns at the end of the discussion above. **
Temperature: Near to below normal.
Precipitation: Near normal.
Snow: Slightly above normal.

FEBRUARY
This is the month that I think things can come together for the greatest chance of blocking, because I feel that when all is said and done our SST event will be delayed and locations of warm waters in the Pacific and Atlantic will combine to produce our coldest weather, relative to normal. I’m also still relying on a quiet southern jet stream and dominant polar jet stream, which itself may end up suppressed to the south due to stronger blocking. This would end up a colder, drier pattern if it came together that way. Very minor wildcard is that we have seen some climate model indications that our ENSO neutral conditions may actually dip into weak La Nina territory by late winter.
** See note about January / February patterns at the end of the discussion above. **
Temperature: Below normal.
Precipitation: Below normal.
Snow: Slightly below normal.

MARCH
Plenty of lingering snow across Canada and the possible emergence of weak La Nina, and some persistence of the late winter pattern would lead me to think the March pattern would be chilly but on the drier side of normal, at least to start out. But this part of the forecast is worth very little more than just tossing darts and is really just a stretch / educated guess.
Temperature: Below normal early month, near normal later month.
Precipitation: Below normal.
Snow: Below normal.

WINTER SEASON OVERALL
Temperature: Slightly below normal.
Precipitation: Slightly below normal.
Snow: Near normal.
-Boston 40-50 inches
-Worcester 50-60 inches
-Providence 35-45 inches
-Hartford 45-55 inches

Monday Forecast

9:02AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 24-29)
High pressure builds in today which will be a fair and “November nice” day, a little cool but not bad. This high slips off to the east Tuesday, another nice but even milder day in which many locations may reach or slightly exceed 50 for high temperatures. These are both good days for travel and errands and just regular commutes in the region, at least in terms of weather. We don’t go 3 for 3 however, as Wednesday will be an unsettled, albeit mild day, as a mature low pressure area traveling through the Great Lakes and into the St. Lawrence Valley pushes a frontal system across the region. This front, in its occlusion stage, will start to spawn a new low pressure area just as it passes offshore, and while this won’t make the day any stormier, it will serve to pull down some chilly and dry air in time for Thanksgiving Day on Thursday. There may be enough cold air aloft for some passing clouds and even a brief sprinkle of rain or flurry of snow, but the day will be dry otherwise, just breezy and chilly, so you’ll want to keep that in mind for football game and local travel. Thursday night / early Friday, for those venturing back from holiday visits or venturing out to join the ranks of shoppers in the dark of night, it’ll be on the cold side, and still rather breezy, so dress for it. It will not be as brutally cold as last year was, however. The daytime hours of Friday will be dry and chilly as well, as we’ll be in a northerly air flow as the new low that went offshore later Wednesday will still be out there in large, mean form, just too far east to have any direct impact on this area besides a gusty breeze.
The forecast details…
TODAY: Partly cloudy morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 26-33. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 49-56. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Brief light rain possible pre-dawn. Lows 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodic rain showers. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Partly sunny. Brief light rain/snow shower possible. Highs 39-46. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 4)
Dry, breezy, cool November 30 as a northwesterly air flow hangs on for at least part of the day. And then when December comes, forecast confidence plunges. Today we still have 3 different solutions from 3 major models as to the evolution of an upcoming storm threat to start off the new month. And please don’t take the phrase “storm threat” as “uh-oh, here comes a big storm”. It probably won’t be that powerful a system, but it may take a while to evolve and occur, with the details not really decipherable until we get a little closer. For now, I am staying with yesterday’s idea of a drawn out, multi-stage evolution, which would result in cloudiness arriving with a light precipitation threat eventually for December 1, milder air taking over with a rain threat for December 2, then a switch to windy, colder, drier weather behind the departing system December 3-4. That’s the general idea for now, but it’s subject to change for sure.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 5-9)
No changes to this part of the outlook. Looking for lack of subtropical jet stream overall with mean ridge position between the US Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley, fast flowing polar jet stream to the north. Will have to watch the boundary between in case unsettled weather tries to string out along it and impact this area longer. Otherwise most systems are quick moving and relatively minor with temperature swings rather frequent.

Sunday Forecast

8:20AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 24-28)
A Sunday soaker as low pressure tracks across the South Coast later today and dumps a good amount of moisture on the region in the form of rain as it intensifies fairly rapidly and maxes out as it passes by. But it’s moving right along and the 2 days that follow will be very nice by late November standards, governed by high pressure with fair and mild conditions, and good for pre-Thanksgiving shopping/travel as well as just regular commuting on those days. I must note, importantly, that as the sky clears during the pre-dawn hours of Monday and winds diminish enough in some areas, a rapid cool-down to near freezing air temperature very well could mean below freezing air right at ground level, resulting in the formation of black ice on untreated surfaces away from the immediate coast or in warmer urban locatoins, so be on the look-out for that if venturing out early in the day Monday. Wednesday, “the big travel day”, won’t be as nice, weather-wise, as a vigorous low pressure area passes north of the region and drags its warm front / cold front combination through the region with some periods of wet weather, but coming with mild conditions here in southeastern New England, snow will not be an issue whatsoever. So what about the holiday itself on Thursday? Well remember last Thanksgiving? Yeah, temperatures in the teens to around 20, wind chills below zero, bright ineffective sunshine? The weather map will actually look somewhat similar to that this time too, but without the intense core of Arctic air we saw then, so it looks like a breezy, bright, more typically chilly late November day, quite perfect for Thanksgiving if you ask me, although it will be on the nippy side for football, and we will have wind chill, but it won’t nearly match that of 2018. Onto the forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast. Steady light rain, at times moderate rain, and possibly periods of heavy rain. Areas of fog. Highs 40-47. Wind NE 5-15 MPH interior areas and 10-20 MPH coast with higher gusts. Minor coastal flooding in prone areas at high tide times.
TONIGHT: Cloudy evening with rain ending, some drizzle and fog lingering. Clearing overnight with areas of black ice forming. Lows 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 26-33. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 49-56. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Brief light rain possible pre-dawn. Lows 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodic rain showers. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Mostly sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
“When Black Friday comes” (kudos if you get this reference) expect fair, breezy, cool weather, and much the same for the final day of November, as low pressure hangs out in the Canadian Maritimes for a couple days before finally moving east. Today we’re seeing a larger spread in medium range guidance as to what happens in the first few days of December, with one of the major models bringing a wet weather system (mostly rain, maybe some mix/snow at least nearby) for December 1 then a turn to windy/colder weather after that with maybe a few snow flurries, while another major model evolves the situation more slowly, with a drier December 1, mainly rain event December 2, and dry or a few snow flurries with wind and cold for December 3. My current thoughts are somewhere between this, with a leaning toward the slower solution.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 4-8)
Large scale pattern likely features high pressure ridge Southeast US and fast flowing jet stream across the north. For New England, this pattern can feature brief unsettled periods unless a front strings out west-to-east along the flow. Leaning toward shorter impact systems and quick temperatures swings at this time, leaning to the colder side of normal, basically a clipper type pattern. This pattern can, if timing is right, start to put some snow on the ground, but usually in small increments.

Saturday Forecast

8:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 23-27)
A weekend split, dry with a seasonable chill today, followed by a rainy Sunday. Today’s a good day to get some final outside cleanup done if you have not gotten to it. Tomorrow will be a perfect inside day, but if you happen to be going to the Patriots game, well, can’t help you with that one, although the steadiest rain may very well have ended by or shortly after the start of the game. Either way, a damp and cool November evening for that one as low pressure will be passing by just to the south. But behind this, high pressure will bring 2 very nice and fairly mild days for November on Monday and Tuesday. That’s also good regional travel weather for pre-Thanksgiving travel. The day before the holiday ends up somewhat unsettled, but for our region it doesn’t look like too big a deal at the moment, just a cold frontal passage with some rain shower activity and fairly mild air. So that ends up being a not-too-bad travel day either as well.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing with time.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 25-32. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely, may begin as mixed precipitation higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 40-47. Wind
NE 5-15 MPH interior, 10-20 MPH coast, higher gusts possible.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with rain ending, some drizzle and fog lingering. Clearing overnight with areas of black ice forming. Lows 27-34. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 28-DECEMBER 2)
Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday, and the final day of November currently look dry, breezy, and chilly as the low pressure area that passes midweek temporarily slows down and expands near southeastern Canada with high pressure to the west. Things start moving along again so that December starts unsettled with a risk of rain/mix/snow as broad low pressure moves in from the west. Too early for any details.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 3-7)
Ridge of high pressure southeastern US, westerly flow northern US, changeable weather for this area, starting chilly/dry and likely turning out somewhat unsettled with a rain/snow threat. Again no way to pinpoint any details so far in advance, just leaning toward the progression from fair to unsettled during this particular period of days.

Friday Forecast

7:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 22-26)
Today will be the mildest day of the week as a warm front is passing through to start the day, putting southeastern New England into a warm sector between it and an approaching cold front for several hours, but this cold front won’t waste much time coming through, and after producing a round of rain showers will introduce a chilly wind to the region, which will continue tonight and into Saturday with the return of fair weather. Weather systems moving right along means the next low pressure area will be pouncing upon our area by early Sunday, making that a mostly wet day, except some mix or snow possible near the start and end of the event favoring higher elevations of the interior. Exit, stage east for that low Sunday night, and in comes dry and pleasant weather by November standards for Monday and Tuesday as a sprawling high pressure exerts its control.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Afternoon rain showers possible. Highs 48-53 southern NH and central MA, 54-59 southeastern MA and RI. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing gradually.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 25-32. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely, except mix/snow possible for a while interior higher elevations mainly morning. Highs 38-45 south. Wind NE 5-15 MPH interior, 10-20 MPH coast, higher gusts possible.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with rain except interior higher elevation mix/snow possible evening. Clearing overnight. Black ice formation likely. Lows 27-34. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)
West to east flow pattern with a general ridge of high pressure US Southeast and varying amplitude polar jet stream domination northern US. For us this is a pattern of fast-moving systems and it’s always hard to pin down timing and strength of each system as it moves along. Current indications are for a low passing north of the region November 27 with a few rain showers, a shot of colder air with gusty wind for November 28 (Thanksgiving) into November 29, a weak system moving through with a few rain/snow showers November 30, and a broader low pressure system approaching from the west with a precipitation threat about December 1. Will monitor the evolution of the pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 2-6)
Much the same type of pattern continues. Up and down temperatures, but shots of cold air can be rather sharp. Unsettled weather is most likely very early and again later in the period but low confidence on any timing and scope of systems this far in advance.