Tuesday June 30 2020 Forecast

7:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

Final day of June / first day of July … same deal, low pressure over the region, unsettled weather. Today will probably resemble yesterday, while tomorrow offers a shot at a bit more sun, still some heavier showers/storms possible but coverage may drop and favor areas to the south and west. Interlude of air and warmer weather Thursday as this low is gone and a sliver of high pressure controls the weather, then another cold front drops down from Canada to cool things back down for the end of the week. The wildcard is whether or not we turn a little less fair again, weather-wise. Leaning toward drier in terms of rainfall, but we may have to contend with quite a bit of cloudiness by Independence Day.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a risk of thunderstorms. Highs 68-75. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Risk of a shower early. Lows 56-63. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas southwest of Boston. Highs 75-82. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to NE.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 5-9)

Transition toward a more zonal pattern begins. Fair weather July 5. More humidity with a risk of a few showers / thunderstorms at times July 6-9. Temperatures variable but near normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 10-14)

Weak to moderate zonal flow pattern. Limited shower / thunderstorm chances. Temperatures near to above normal.

Monday June 29 2020 Forecast

7:49AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

Low pressure, with more potency than most forecast indicated, triggered quite the thunderstorm event for a good portion of the region during Sunday. We’ve heard the stories by now, so it’s time to look ahead to what else it has in store for us, and that is 3-days of unsettled weather to end the month of June and start July. I think today and Tuesday will the 2 coolest and least sunny of the 3 days, but any sun that does occur will help fuel the development of showers and possible thunderstorms, which will be around all 3 days anyway. Timing-wise, I think activity can occur pretty much any time today and Tuesday and will be weighted more toward afternoon favoring areas further south and west on Wednesday. The upper low finally loses its grip on us with a sliver of high pressure to make Thursday a nicer summer day, and while Friday also looks dry it will be cooler with a new surge of Canadian air via the Canadian Maritimes.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 68-73 coast, 73-78 inland. Wind calm then NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Lows 56-63. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 68-73 coast, 73-78 inland. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Risk of a shower early. Lows 56-63. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas southwest of Boston. Highs 75-82. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to NE.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 4-8)

Independence Day Weekend July 4-5 looks fair with moderate temperatures due to Canadian high pressure in control, coolest likely along the coast. Warmer and more humid weather returns in the July 6-8 period with a slight increase in the risk of showers and thunderstorms.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 9-13)

Expecting a shift toward a shift to a more zonal flow pattern with minor disturbance, mainly dry weather, and temperatures near to above normal.

Sunday June 28 2020 Forecast

8:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

Instead of the novel you got with yesterday’s update, let’s go with a short summary for today’s. Nothing’s really changed in the outlook. We have a cold front that will move through the region slowly during today and this evening, but it’s slow enough that it really won’t make it through the entire region until sometime tonight. That means that any time starting just after daytime maximum heating, through this evening, there can be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. While not everybody will get them, those that day can see heavy downpours, briefly gusty winds, lightning, and possible small hail. So if you have outdoor plans this afternoon and/or evening, be on the look-out for that. Once the front is through we get into a northerly to easterly air flow for the first few days of the coming week, the final 2 days of June and first day of July, and with cold air aloft, the daytime heating will ignite isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Again, not a widespread rainfall situation, but something to watch for. The most likely areas for these may shift each day, from anywhere Monday to more over the interior Tuesday then more to the south by Wednesday. High pressure, centered to the north through Wednesday, should drift down across the region for a fair and warmer Thursday next week.

TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from mid afternoon on. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with showers and thunderstorms possible. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 58-65. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Lows 56-63. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring southwestern NH, central MA, RI, and northeastern CT. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Lows 56-63. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas southwest of Boston. Highs 75-82. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 3-7)

A cold front drops down from the north sometime July 3 with a brief shower or t-storm threat, and another high pressure area from eastern Canada brings fair but not-too-hot weather for the Independence Day Weekend. Some warmth and humidity, along with a shower/t-storm risk may return early the following week.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 8-12)

Continuing to cautiously lean toward a shift to a more zonal flow pattern with minor disturbance, mainly dry weather, and temperatures near to above normal.

Saturday June 27 2020 Forecast

8:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

There are a lot of little details to get to, and I want to keep the explanation as simple as possible, without taking up the entire weekend to try to explain the weekend’s weather. 😉 … Today, a warm front approaches (again) more a dew point boundary since we’re not going to warm up significantly behind it, but getting it through here may be a bit of a process. An initial impulse races east southeastward into New England today and turns our sunny start into a mainly cloudy afternoon with a shield of rain and possible embedded thunderstorms. This will also be fighting dry air as it arrives so it may “look” worse on radar than what actually occur at ground level in most areas. Where the front itself is located, near the South Coast, is where we may see some heavier surface-based convection and stronger storms. I do not expected widespread big boomers in the area today. That activity will be limited. It may even be limited to southwestern CT and never quite get into the WHW forecast area at all. This little wave of low pressure that forms on the front as it tries to cross the region will give us a lesson in mesoscale meteorology, as it likely turns the surface wind to the east over southern NH and adjacent far northern MA, eventually to shift more to the north as it moves offshore. This will cause a notable cool-down in these areas after they reach their high temperatures late this morning and midday, just prior to the heaviest clouds arriving and eventual wind shift. To the south of here, the winds will be more variable to southwesterly on the other side of the boundary, but may shift more to the northwest for a while this evening with a less-dramatic cool down there. Eventually, the boundary lifts back to the north once it’s free of the small low pressure area’s influence, and we get a light but more regional southwesterly flow and rising humidity overnight. A wild card during this process is whether or not there will be additional showers and thunderstorms. History shows this set-up can pop them, but history also shows when we’re in a developing or existing drought, any rain is hard to come by. I’ll leave them in the forecast, isolated in nature, overnight. And now to Sunday, the same boundary that goes through today / tonight comes back again as a cold front, but slowly, and will be the focal point for episodes of showers and thunderstorms. Expect this activity to occur mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. So there’s your weekend in a very large nut shell, sounding a lot worse than it will actually be, as the majority of the time at any one location will be rain-free. So what about early next week? As we wrap up June and begin July in the Monday-Wednesday period, an upper level low pressure will be over the region as part of a blocking pattern, and with general surface high pressure to the north, the general air flow will be northerly to northeasterly at times. This pattern is cooler for temperatures, but enough daytime heating with cold air aloft is a set-up for instability showers and thunderstorms. When this set-up occurs, showers and storms don’t even have to be that strong to produce hail. So we will have to watch for that. More fine-tuning to come with the early next week situation…

TODAY: Sunny start, then rapidly clouding over late morning-midday. Generally cloudy this afternoon with a period of rain and embedded thunderstorms. A heavier thunderstorm is possible south of I-90 as well. Highs 78-85 by midday. Temperatures falling gradually at first this afternoon then a little more quickly later in the day, especially in southern NH and far northern MA so by evening 60-68 should be common, with coolest readings southern NH. Wind SW up to 10 MPH through early afternoon, shifting to E briefly in southern NH and northeastern MA and becoming variable most other areas except staying SW near the South Coast during mid afternoon into evening.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 57-64, coolest in southern NH. Wind N-NW north of I-90, NW-W south of I-90 up to 10 MPH, shifting to SW overnight.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening. Humid. Highs 78-85. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with showers and thunderstorms possible. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 58-65. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Lows 56-63. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Lows 56-63. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 2-6)

High pressure shifts over and then briefly southeast of the region with fair and a little warmer weather July 2-3. A new high pressure area from eastern Canada may bring a batch of cooler air down for the Independence Day Weekend, but this is a low confidence forecast. Inconsistent guidance ranges from a quick turn to cooler/dry weather with a warm-up by July 6 to a period of unsettled and cool weather all of those days. This far in advance I’m somewhere in between, and will try to add a bit more detail next update. One thing I am more confident of is that I see no widespread beneficial rain.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 7-11)

Continuing to cautiously lean toward a shift to a more zonal flow pattern with minor disturbance, mainly dry weather, and temperatures near to above normal.

Friday June 26 2020 Forecast

7:10AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 26-30)

For the final 5 days of June, this is quite the complex forecast. So right to it. We start out with a trough over southeastern Massachusetts this morning, triggering a few showers. This shifts offshore as a second weak trough ambles its way eastward across the region during the day today. This will provide enough focus for at least clouds to pop, and probably a few isolated to possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms. It will once again be a case where most people don’t get anything, but those who happen to be under one of them can experience a heavy downpour. This moves off tonight, and more changes are on tap for the weekend. First a warm front will cross there region Saturday with varying amounts of cloudiness, although contrary to some model data bringing showers, in some cases steadier rain, into the region as early as the morning, I feel that we’ll hold off any wet weather threat until afternoon and that it will be more patchy in nature. However, if there is enough sunshine, I cannot rule out a couple heavier thunderstorms popping up near and just south of the frontal boundary. The real dilemma with this is that the front may never really cleanly get through the region, and may hang up around the MA/NH border, which could make for an interesting temperature contrast in the region by late in the day. We may have a case where an easterly wind is blowing near the NH Seacoast where it is quite cool, while areas west and south of Boston are much warmer and more humid. We may have to iron-out these details in “now-cast” form during Saturday. That front will push back to the south during Sunday, but will be in no hurry to do so, so there will be the continued opportunity for showers and thunderstorms to pop up. Again, don’t expect a widespread soaking rain event with this. It will struggle to provide much in the way of beneficial rain, with downpours running off, and a longer-lasting gentle rainfall not in the cards. When we get to Monday and Tuesday, we’ll find ourselves in a cooler but weak north to northeast air flow behind the front and a departing low pressure wave, but upper level low pressure over the region with cold air aloft keeps the atmosphere unstable so we can see diurnal showers and thunderstorms develop each day. Again, not a widespread rain fall, just pop up activity. And while it’s a little early to call for this, with cold air aloft like that sometimes these types of pop up showers/storms can produce hail as well. So that will be something to also watch for as we get into early next week. I must stress, however, that the overall pattern remains dry and with the exception of the South Coast, for now, we are in the early stages of a drought.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers near Cape Cod early to mid morning. Isolated showers / thunderstorms anywhere but favoring southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI this afternoon. Highs 78-83 South Coast, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind W-SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Early sun, then variably cloudy. Risk of showers and possibly a thunderstorm mid afternoon on. Highs 83-90 except 76-83 Cape Cod. Temperatures may cool back during the afternoon especially southern NH and northeastern MA. Wind SW 5-15 MPH may shift to E in southern NH and northeastern MA during the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. More humid. Lows 63-70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of a shower early. Lows 56-63. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 1-5)

Look out! Here comes July! A tiny bit more confidence today that the pattern for the early days of the month will be similar to what we have seen recently, and stubbornly, and that is high pressure that likes to be centered north of New England with weaker low pressure to the south. This is a dry pattern overall, limited shower activity, and no intense heat or humidity.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 6-10)

I cautiously lean toward a shift, finally, to a more zonal pattern, west to northwest flow in the upper levels, temperatures near to above normal, and continued limited opportunities for any showers and thunderstorms. Expect drought conditions to expand through the first third of July.