DAYS 1-5 ( JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)
We have a hurricane to talk about, but we will get to that. First, and the more immediate future, we will have a wet start to the day today along the South Coast. This is something that we have been keeping an eye on for several days. The cause is the front that went through yesterday sitting in that region while a week wave of low pressure rides along it and tropical moisture is lifted over the frontal boundary. As you head north where to cross Southeastern New England the weather is drier and eventually clearer as the cloud line sits near the Massachusetts New Hampshire border early this morning. We will see a drying trend along the south coast and a clearing trend for the entire region as the day goes along today. An area of high pressure will provide a very nice day for the first of August on Saturday. If there is one caveat it is that sea breezes forming along all coastal areas may have enough moisture to interact with closer to the south Coast that a couple of isolated showers may develop during the afternoon. This would be the exception, not the rule. By Sunday, low pressure passing northwest of the region will drag a warm front into southeastern New England, increasing the cloud cover and eventually the risk of some shower activity. Humidity will also be on the rise at this time. by Monday, we should be into a warm and muggy air mass with just a risk of a few showers and thunderstorms. During this time we will be awaiting our fate regarding the track of Hurricane Isaias. As has been mentioned previously, subtle changes in a storm’s track can have a significant impact on a storm’s intensity. and a track a little further away from mountainous influence and over very warm water has allowed this system to gain intensity a little more quickly, something it will continue to do as it moves through the Bahamas. The best guess on the track of the system currently is that the center will stay offshore of Florida and Georgia, and South Carolina, and either just offshore or clipping the North Carolina coast over the coming few days as it moves along. That brings us to Tuesday. That will be the day that this system has its most significant impact on our region. The details of that impact will depend on the track of the system, and obviously its intensity. A track over the region would most likely produce a greater wind impact than a rainfall impact, although the rainfall impact would still be significant. A track just to the southeast of the region would likely produce a greater rainfall impact than a wind impact, although wind would still be a factor. a slightly sharper turn to the northeast would lessen the impact of both of these. It is simply too soon to tell exactly what will happen.
TODAY: An overcast and showery start South Coast, with lots of clouds elsewhere except mostly clear north central MA through southern NH. Midday and afternoon showers ending with thinning clouds South Coast, and increasing sunshine elsewhere. Less humid. Highs 78-85. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of isolated showers in southern RI and eastern CT during the afternoon. Highs 80-87. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 61-68. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of afternoon showers. More humid. Highs 78-85, coolest coastal areas. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers or rain likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 72-79. Wind variable 10-30 MPH, possibly stronger.
DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 5-9)
Assuming the timing of Isaias remains as expected we should have improved weather by the beginning of this period, with mostly fair and drier conditions into mid period, followed by an increase in humidity and a risk of showers and thunderstorms later in the period.
DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 10-14)
Current indications continue to show a weak westerly flow aloft and at the surface a potential battle between high pressure in Canada and high pressure off the US East Coast. This type of pattern can produce episodes of showers and thunderstorms but still plenty of rain-free hours as well.