Saturday October 31 2020 Forecast (11:37AM)

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

Discussion…

A rare sight greeted early risers today in a good portion of the WHW forecast area: snow covered landscape, much of it still foliated. We’re used to seeing this with some of the late foliage like oaks, or evergreen type trees, but it’s rare to see that much snow on trees with colorful leaves that haven’t dropped them yet, and that’s exactly what we had. I was fortunate enough to take a walk at a local pond this morning to witness some of this close-up, and photograph some of it (although poor planning meant that I not only ran out of storage space, but battery too, before the end of my walk – oops, about as good as my forecast was for yesterday’s storm, but that’s life!) … Now, as the sun warms the landscape enough today to rid the trees of the snow, and more leaves come down with that, we will only recover to the 40s as a chilly high pressure area moves overhead, but this is good news for any cities and towns holding trick or treating this evening, as winds will be light despite the chill. Last year, if you recall, it was very mild, but also quite windy, and showery in some locations. Tonight will have 2 distinctive parts to it. This evening, we’ll see quick radiational cooling especially where snow remains on the ground under a mostly clear sky with just some high clouds streaming in above, decorative for the rising full Halloween moon, a blue moon (the second full moon of the month, not actually blue), also known as the full Hunter’s moon. Our low temperatures will be reached before midnight. During the overnight hours, a southerly air flow will strengthen and we’ll not only have increasing high & mid level clouds with the a warm front coming toward the region but we’ll have lower clouds coming up via the waters just south of New England, and the temperature will rise gradually. Also, don’t forget, tonight is the night we turn the clocks back, ending Daylight Savings Time and going back to Standard Time, technically occurring at 2 a.m. Sunday morning. So remember to change any clocks that do not automatically adjust! You get the extra hour of sleep if you want it, but our sunset will also occur before 5 p.m. after today onward into early 2021. Back to the weather… A disturbance moving north northeastward may bring a few rain showers to southeastern MA around dawn to about mid morning on Sunday, but the majority of Sunday morning and the first half of the afternoon will just feature a lot of clouds but not really any rainfall. Later in the day though, as a strong cold front approaches from the west, there should be a decent swath of showers, and even the risk of some embedded thunder, moving in from the west, that will cross the region during the evening before pushing offshore overnight. This will introduce a much colder air mass on Monday, of arctic origin although somewhat modified. Nevertheless, Monday is going to be a windy and cold day with some sun but also a fair amount of passing clouds, and some of these clouds may produce a rain or snow shower. Later Monday night into the early hours of Tuesday (to around dawn), another disturbance will move through the area from northwest to southeast, producing a few snow showers, and maybe even a brief snow squall. This will reinforce our cold air for Election Day Tuesday. If you have doing in-person voting, expect a breezy, bright, but chilly day with temperatures in the 30s much of the time (peaking in the lower 40s for some areas). There will, even be some wind chill making it feel colder. Tuesday night will be a cold one with high pressure moving overhead, but Wednesday, after a cold start, we’ll see a nice temperature recovery as the high center shifts to the southeast and a west to southwest wind develops, bringing air from a milder source region into our area.

Details…

TODAY: 100% sunshine. Highs 42-49. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THIS EVENING (SUNSET TO ABOUT MIDNIGHT): Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT (OVERNIGHT): Partly to mostly cloudy. Temperature rising through the 30s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers southeastern MA and RI until about mid morning. Numerous rain showers arriving west to east by late in the day. Highs 51-58. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY EVENING (THROUGH MIDNIGHT): Cloudy with numerous rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Temperatures in the 50s. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY OVERNIGHT: Breaking clouds. Temperatures falling to near 40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing rain or snow showers. Temperatures steady around 40. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing snow showers. Slight chance of a snow squall. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy with a risk of a passing snow shower early morning, then mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing during the afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25 except 25-32 immediate coast and urban areas. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 5-9)

This period looks mainly dry, but temperatures are going to be dependent on wind direction and whether high pressure to the south of New England or in eastern Canada has a stronger influence. Currently I expect us to be influenced by high pressure to the south with above normal temperatures November 5-7, then high pressure from Canada with a cooler November 8-9.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

Lower confidence in what happens during this period. Looks like a brief warm up, rain showers, then a chill-down through Veterans Day, a possible wave of low pressure with rain/mix/snow threat around November 12-13, then dry weather to end the period. A lot of uncertainty here so don’t put too much stock in this outlook right now.

Friday October 30 2020 Forecast (7:40AM)

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

Discussion…

About 10 days ago I told a coworker many of us would see our first snowflakes before October was over. Well, many of you will indeed see that today. But this is not going to be a big snowstorm either. No repeat of 2011. And let’s get our priorities straight. People “freak out” (don’t know why) over relatively minor events these days, but for most of you, snow is not going to be the problem today. The greater danger comes tonight when temperatures fall into the 20s before the ground has a chance to dry off, even though the snow (and rain to the southeast) will have ended hours before. This is a recipe for black ice, and it would have been an issue even with out the snow. So don’t blame the snow for the ice that forms tonight. It’s time we got back to thinking about weather in a more practical sense. Getting lost in the drama of “flakes falling from the sky” prevents a lot of useful information from actually being heard. So be careful tonight if you go out. If you read this, and still do the icy slip n’ slide, don’t say you were not warned. So onto the rest of the weather. We have our little winter preview event as cold air meets departing low pressure today, then that cold air and black ice tonight. Thankfully as high pressure settles over the region on Saturday, despite a very cold start, the dry will “warm” back to the 40s with very dry air which will allow those icy patches to disappear. Saturday evening, for any outdoor Halloween activities, expect a sky that shows some high clouds arriving just in time to accent the rising full moon, the second one this month, the “blue moon” (not actually blue), or the Hunter’s moon. During the late night, expect more clouds and a temperature that may rise slightly as the wind begins to blow from the south. A warm front passes the region early Sunday and a cold front then approaches late in the day, but doesn’t pass through until Sunday night with its rain showers. Also, don’t forget that this is also the weekend we switch from Daylight Savings Time back to Standard Time as the clocks go back 1 hour at 2 a.m. Sunday. I’ve noticed a lot of folks lately having gotten into the habit of calling “Standard Time” by the name “Daylight Savings Time”. No. That’s what we are coming off of, and going BACK to Standard Time. Spread the word. Let’s call things what they are. And speaking of getting back to things, back to the weather I go, and back to the cold air we go on Monday and Tuesday with a nice delivery from the arctic via Canada. A few snow showers may accompany the incoming cold on Monday, but nothing series in the snow department. Tuesday, Election Day, looks dry, but there may be some areas that never get out of the 30s – so between today and that day, we’re going to see a couple of mighty chilly days for this time of year…

Details…

TODAY: Overcast. Snow or rain changing to snow, accumulating 1/2 to 2 inches, especially on grassy/leafy surfaces and other typically cold surfaces., while the South Coast / Cape Cod are mainly rain with a few flakes mixing in. Breaking clouds this afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NE shifting to NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 21-28 except around 30 urban centers. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 31-38 evening then a slow temperature rise overnight. Wind variable under 10 MPH early, becoming S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers, especially in the afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers during the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind S 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Slight risk of a rain or snow shower. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening with a passing snow shower possible. Mostly clear overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind chill below 20 at times. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

Dry weather dominates with a warm-up November 4-6, then cooling down again later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

Dry, chilly start then warming up again November 9-10. Strong cold front may bring rain showers and then another shot of cold by November 11. Watch for a wave of low pressure with possible unsettled weather late in the period.

Thursday October 29 2020 Forecast (7:53AM)

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

Discussion…

Today, you get spared a long discussion and instead just get this quick summary, because there is not really any change to my thoughts on this forecast. Low pressure passes south of the region tonight and Friday, starting as rain, which will be somewhat beneficial but not as much as some model forecasts have been – another few chips taken out of the drought. Colder air flips the rain to snow first in higher elevations north and west of Boston then eventually toward the city as the precipitation shield gets ready to depart during Friday. Minor snowfall accumulation on the order of a coating to 2 inches take place, greatest in higher elevations well north and west of Boston before things come to an end, and while most of any snow melts away later Friday, even with cold air moving in, some wet ground and puddles will remain and that sets up a good chance for ice patches Friday night as temperatures fall below freezing pretty much regionwide. No changes to the weekend with a chilly but tranquil Halloween, a full moon rising in the evening before clouds arrive, then a milder, breezy Sunday with a rain shower risk as a warm front passes and a cold front approaches. This cold front will bring a fresh shot of cold air by Monday.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving southwest to northeast. Highs 46-53. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to N.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain, may mix or turn to snow southwestern NH and north central MA overnight. Lows 34-41. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Overcast morning with rain except mix/snow likely especially northwest of I-95 with minor accumulation favoring higher elevations of north central MA and southern NH (coating to 2 inches maximum). Mostly cloudy afternoon with a passing rain or snow shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind NE shifting to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 21-28 except around 30 urban centers. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 28-35 evening then a slow temperature rise overnight. Wind variable under 10 MPH evening becoming S up to 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers, especially in the afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers during the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind S 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Slight risk of a rain or snow shower. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

Dry weather dominates but with up and down temperatures. Coldest November 3, mildest November 4 and 6 with cooler shots November 5 and 7, based on current timing.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

Dry, chilly November 8, warming up November 9-10 then strong cold front follows with a cold shot by November 11. Watch for wave of low pressure with precipitation threat by the end of the period.

Wednesday October 28 2020 Forecast (7:48AM)

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 28 – NOVEMBER 1)

Discussion…

In the latest “the models really suck” example, we have some light rain around the region this morning from a disturbance that was basically missed inside 36 hours by a lot of short range guidance and that I had to correct my forecast for yesterday. Not that the rain is a bad thing, any drops of rain we get we’ll take, although this particular episode is basically negligible as far as drought relief goes. At least we have a shot at something a tiny bit more beneficial occurring before this week is over. The focus has been misguided on this upcoming system, born of a combination of energy coming from the southwest and the moisture from a Gulf of Mexico tropical system. It’ll be rather fast-moving, and suppressed a bit further south than guidance had been showing, and while that will allow some beneficial rainfall, it will probably end up coming in at under 1 inch for most areas. But what about the snow?!?! Snow in October, for one thing, is not totally unusual. Having significant measurable snow outside of the mountains is far less common than seeing flakes that amount to nothing or minor accumulation. This event coming up will fall into the latter category for the WHW forecast area. But what you will be impacted by far more than any snowflakes that fall is the stinging chilly breeze that will be hitting you in the face if you’re outside on Friday afternoon and evening, delivering a modified piece of a very cold air mass that has been plaguing much of western and central Canada and the western US, setting records all over the place and even causing a very early season ice storm pretty far to the south in the US Plains States. The good news here is we won’t see any ice storms, but we may see some black ice on Friday night as the temperature drops below freezing. Any wet ground or puddles left behind will likely freeze up, so with the area not being used to this, it’s something to keep in mind if you are heading out. All it takes is one small patch of ice under one foot to result in a butt landing, or worse. So use caution. In addition, basically anybody who has escaped a frost/freeze up to this point will see it happen finally on Friday night / Saturday morning as the temperature falls below freezing basically everywhere and into the 20s in many areas, thus ending the growing season once and for all. Onto the weekend we go next. Saturday, Halloween, a full moon (the second one of the month), and we’ll have high pressure sitting over us with dry, tranquil, but cold weather. Any towns/cities that will be having trick or treating Saturday evening will be doing so under a clear sky, a bright rising moon, temperatures in the 30s, but light wind. High pressure moves offshore by Sunday and warm front goes by the the morning before a cold front approaches the region from the west later in the day. This results in a milder but breezy, cloudier day, along with the risk for some rain shower activity.

Details…

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of light rain this morning. Highs 50-57. Wind E under 10 MPH shifting to S.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind S under 10 MPH shifting to W.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving southwest to northeast during the afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain, may mix or turn to snow southwestern NH and north central MA overnight. Lows 34-41. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Overcast morning with rain except mix/snow likely especially northwest of I-95 with minor accumulation favoring higher elevations of north central MA and southern NH (coating to 2 inches maximum). Mostl cloudy afternoon with a passing rain or snow shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind NE shifting to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 21-28 except around 30 urban centers. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 28-35 evening then a slow temperature rise overnight. Wind variable under 10 MPH evening becoming S up to 10 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers, especially in the afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

A strong cold air delivery November 2 with wind and maybe a passing snow shower early and again later at night. Dry, chilly November 3 after a brief snow shower risk early. Warm front may produce some light rain November 4 with milder air moving in. Dry, briefly cooler November 5 before high pressure shifts south of the region with a stronger warm up but still dry weather November 6.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

Potential rain showers with a cold front November 7, then a shot of dry/cold air November 8-9 before moderating temperatures and still mainly dry later in the period.

Tuesday October 27 2020 Forecast (7:30AM)

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 27-31)

Discussion…

Keeping in mind our often-mentioned terrible performances by guidance, there are not a lot of changes in today’s forecast from what was written yesterday, so to summarize, after a very feeble performance by an approaching warm front yesterday, first not giving much rain, and second never making it through, we get into a northerly air flow today which turns easterly on Wednesday as high pressure passes north of the region. A minor disturbance may bring a touch of wet weather later tonight and early Wednesday. And then comes the much-hyped first snow threat of the season! Oh wait a moment, it’s not really much of a snow threat now is it? It’s a rain threat, which we need, and we may score some beneficial rainfall of up to an inch or so mainly from Thursday afternoon through much of Thursday night and into early Friday as low pressure passes south of the region. Some of the moisture from yet another Gulf of Mexico tropical system will be involved in this, but I do think a fair amount of that moisture will miss to the south. Yes, there will be cold enough air from the north getting involved with this system so we probably do see a change to snow in some areas mostly outside of I-95 (though cannot rule out flakes further southeast for a time) as things get ready to wind down on Friday. As for accumulation? No, not 2011. We may see some minor accumulation, possibly measurable, in higher elevations favoring north central MA and southwestern NH, as far as the WHW forecast area goes. By Friday evening, it’s gone, and it’s cold/dry. This sets up a very chilly but dry Halloween on Saturday, which also features the second full moon of the month (Hunter’s Moon).

Details…

TODAY: Lots of clouds, breaks of sun. Highs 52-59. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers late evening and overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers in the morning. Highs 51-58. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely, especially during the afternoon hours. Highs 46-53. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain, may mix with snow southwestern NH and north central MA overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast morning with rain except mix/snow likely especially northwest of I-95 with minor accumulation favoring higher elevations of north central MA and southern NH. Partial clearing during the afternoon. Highs 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32 except 33-40 urban centers. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

Cold start then milder finish November 1 as another cold front approaches. Rain showers night of November 1 to early November 2 may end as snow showers as a shot of cold/wind arrives for the balance of November 2. Another quick-moving disturbance may bring a rain/snow shower early November 3 followed by more breezy and cold weather. Quick warm-up November 4 then cool-down November 5 but high pressure dominates with dry weather.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

Very divergent medium range guidance (no surprise), so for now going with mainly dry, maybe brief unsettled weather around November 7. A lot of up and down temperatures may occur during this period. Will fine-tune with time.