Monday November 30 2020 Forecast (7:56AM)

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 1)

Discussion…

On this final day of November our main focus will be a storm system that will impact the region today, as well as into the first couple days of December, albeit much less so after this evening. The evolution of this system began over the weekend as a jet stream trough made its way eastward across the US. Surface low pressure developing near the western Gulf Coast region and has made its way northeastward as of this morning to a point it is about to move northeastward out of the Tennessee Valley then up the Appalachians and into the St. Lawrence Valley via New York State. The upper level system driving it is becoming a closed off low pressure area and as the surface storm maxes out while passing west of New England, a strong pressure gradient between it and offshore high pressure will result in a strengthening southerly wind flow across our area today. Also a significant ribbon of moisture will produce a significant bout of rainfall in the form of steady moderate to heavy rain ahead of a warm front then widespread moderate to heavy rain showers and embedded thunderstorms in the warm sector after the warm frontal passage and ahead of the cold front from midday through late evening. It is in the warm sector with the convective rainfall that the both the strongest gradient wind and strongest wind gusts will occur. If you have outdoor decorations, make sure they are secured as strong wind gusts could disturb them greatly. With trees mainly leafless, the chance of tree damage has dropped off, but some older, weakened trees may still come down or lose limbs, and this can result in some property damage and/or power outages. Street and parking lot flooding will be an issue due to heavy rain, and exacerbated where any leaves block storm drains. Coastal flooding will not be a significant issue as the tide should be shy of reaching its high for the night while the strongest winds occur, and this particular tide is not nearly as high as the series with saw with the new moon a couple of weeks ago. Once the axis of moisture gets beyond our region, the clouds will break and the air will remain quite mild overnight into Tuesday, but being on the eastern side of a closed low pressure area keeps us in the risk area for additional rain showers, although these should be just scattered. So December will start off feeling a bit more like a day in mid spring. As the upper low lifts its way into and through eastern Canada, our winds turn more westerly here Wednesday and Thursday, driving drier and seasonably chilly air into our area. By Friday, the next low pressure trough will be moving in from the west rather quickly (a little more quickly than previously anticipated) so the weather will be unsettled, mild enough for rain, but not nearly as stormy as the system we will see later today.

Details…

TODAY: Overcast. Rain arriving late morning through midday southwest to northeast, may be heavy at times during the afternoon. Highs 57-64 occurring late-day. Wind SE to S increasing to 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH coastal areas with higher gusts all areas by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Overcast evening with widespread rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Breaking clouds overnight with a chance of additional isolated to scattered rain showers. Lows 45-52. Wind S 15-35 MPH with gusts as high as 45-60 MPH evening (gusts above 60 MPH may occur in isolated coastal locations and higher elevations), shifting to SW 10-20 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH overnight.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 57-64 occurring in the morning, then falling through 50s by late-day. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of rain showers evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 42-49. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 31-38 occurring in the evening. Temperatures may rise overnight. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 5-9)

A lot of uncertainty in this period. Watching the computer models try to “figure this out” has been interesting. Based on what I know through Friday, my best guess is the previous “weekend storm threat” actually holds off until the December 6-7 time frame with the first part of the weekend more likely to be dry. The storm that would result from the passage of a low pressure trough has a very questionable evolution and potential track, so it will be something to watch for now and I will once again try to pin down more detail as we get closer. A period of windy/colder weather would likely follow this threat (whether the storm impacted the region or missed it), perhaps with some snow showers.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 10-14)

Continuing to watch the potential for a colder and stormier period of weather in this time frame due to less high pressure in the US Southeast and a temporary disruption of the polar jet stream with indications for a fairly large scale trough of low pressure impacting the central and eastern US, including our region. Low confidence forecast at this time.

November 29 2020 Forecast (7:36AM)

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

Discussion…

Stratocumulus? What stratocumulus? We’ve finally gotten rid of the low level moisture that, with the help of a couple of disturbances, had caused us abundant cloudiness the last couple of days, and today we get to enjoy a bright late November day as an area of high pressure slides just to the south of New England. While it won’t be warm like that stretch we had earlier in November, it will have a seasonable feel to it but with the lack of wind the air will be quite tolerable, so no more excuses to put off the last of the outside cleanup or putting up holiday decorations. But be warned, if you are putting up decorations vulnerable to strong wind, make sure they are anchored, as they will be tested for their “staying power” later on Monday. Low pressure forming near the western Gulf Coast is going to be propelled rather rapidly northeastward on the eastern side of a developing upper level trough. While we will be on the warm side of this storm system, it’s going to deliver us quite a dose of wet weather and strong southerly wind alter Monday, especially Monday evening. Once we get to Tuesday, the main belt of rainfall and strongest wind will have departed, but it will still be somewhat unsettled with a frontal boundary nearby and the trough to our west. So while a good portion of Tuesday may end up rain-free, I can’t rule out some passing rain showers with a fair amount of clouds crossing the sky, although the air will be mild despite a gusty breeze, which will be from a “mild” direction. We’ll have to wait until midweek, when the upper low shifts into eastern Canada, for some seasonably chilly air to arrive here. But it will do so with dry and breezy weather.

Details…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Overcast. Widespread rain showers arriving west to east by late morning or midday. Highs 57-64 occurring late-day. Wind SE to S increasing to 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH coastal areas with higher gusts all areas.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast evening with widespread rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Breaking clouds overnight with a chance of addition rain showers. Lows 45-52. Wind S 15-35 MPH with gusts as high as 45-60 MPH evening (gusts above 60 MPH may occur in isolated coastal locations and higher elevations), shifting to SW 10-20 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH overnight.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 57-64 occurring in the morning, then falling through 50s by late-day. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of rain showers evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 42-49. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 4-8)

Cold front moves through the region with a risk of rain showers December 4. Weekend storm threat December 5-6, odds favoring rain coast but rain and/or snow possible interior depending on the storm track and temperature profile. The track of that storm is highly uncertain. Guidance currently shows a few hundred mile spread in possibilities. Colder with a risk of snow showers December 7-8 behind the departing storm system.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 9-13)

Eyeing the potential for a colder and stormier period of weather in this time frame due to less high pressure in the US Southeast and a temporary disruption of the polar jet stream with indications for a fairly large scale trough of low pressure impacting the central and eastern US, including our region. While it’s too soon to pin-point any specific storm systems and their results, there is also the possibility that this pattern is even slower to evolve and that much of this period can be storm-free.

Saturday November 28 2020 Forecast (8:48AM)

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

Discussion…

With fairly abundant low level moisture in place now since Thanksgiving a couple days ago, we’ve been covered, literally, but a fairly stubborn blanket of stratocumulus clouds. They pulled a vanishing act for a few hours Friday morning to tease us a bit before taking the sky over. And today we still have them in place. We’ve also seen some ground fog patches develop overnight in areas where the temperature fell to meet the dew point, but these are dissipating quickly this morning. What will continue to be more stubborn are the stratocumulus, which again will dominate the sky much of the day. Although today that layer of air is going to be able to mix a bit more dry air in so we will see some breaks in the cloud cover, enough for intervals of sun in some locations. Despite the clouds, we’re still in a fairly mild air mass anyway, and without a lot of wind it won’t feel that bad outside at all. Outdoor decorating plans are quite doable – just may have some damp ground. If you really want to work outside in sunshine, then Sunday is your day, as it will be a similar-feeling day to today, just sunnier with drier ground, as we get a light but drier westerly air flow north of a high pressure area centered in the Mid Atlantic. And then, things change. A dual Pacific jet stream will be bringing a couple of disturbances through the middle of the country this weekend and they are set to rendezvous over the Midwest as we reach the final day of November on Monday. A low pressure wave forming over the lower Mississippi Valley will then track north northeastward on the eastern side of a developing closed upper low, moving up through the Tennessee and eastern Ohio Valleys and up along the Appalachian Mountains on its way to the St. Lawrence Valley during Monday and early Tuesday. For us, this means a strengthening southerly wind and a rain event. Significant rainfall amounts may result from this, which may result in local flooding but will also continue to east away at our drought. We’ll have to watch for some high-tide coastal flooding as well especially on south-facing shores as this will occur with the full moon Monday. The frontal boundary that trails this initial low pressure area will be the focus for a second wave of low pressure. While guidance has been in some disagreement about the exact strength and track of this low, what most likely happens is that it tracks to our west on Tuesday, probably through NY State, and this will keep our area on the mild side with some additional rain showers, but probably not quite as hard-hitting as the late Monday portion of the event. The closed low pressure system that is the catalyst of all this will start to lift into eastern Canada by Wednesday, at which time our surface wind will become more southwest to west, driving drier and more seasonably cool air into our region.

Details…

TODAY: Lots of clouds, breaks of sun. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Patches of ground fog. Lows 35-42. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Thickening overcast. Widespread rain showers arriving west to east late morning on. Highs 53-60. Wind SE to S increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast evening with widespread rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Breaking clouds overnight with a chance of addition rain showers. Lows 45-52. Wind S 15-25 MPH with gusts as high as 45-55 MPH evening, shifting to SW 10-20 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH overnight.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind SW to S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of rain showers evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 42-49. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 3-7)

A dry westerly air flow with seasonably chilly weather for December 3-4. Watching a storm potential for the December 5-6 weekend in which timing, low pressure track, and precipitation types are highly in question, depending on the evolution of the upper pattern. Whatever takes place at that time should be exiting with a return to seasonably chilly, dry weather at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 8-12)

Eyeing the potential for a colder and stormier period of weather in this time frame due to less high pressure in the US Southeast and a temporary disruption of the polar jet stream with indications for a fairly large scale trough of low pressure impacting the central and eastern US, including our region. Obviously far too soon to pin-point any specific storm systems and their results. These will look different on pretty much all models run-to-run. It’s more important to focus on the overall pattern at this range.

Friday November 27 2020 Forecast (9:15AM)

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

Discussion…

A little bonus sunshine to start your Friday in much of the WHW forecast area as a batch of drier air came in during the pre-dawn hours to obliterate the fog and low clouds. But stratocumulus clouds are already making a comeback from west to east and they will likely dominate the sky a good portion of the day with abundant low level moisture to sustain them. Nevertheless, we’re in a fairly mild air mass, so it will be a comfortable day by late November standards. A weak cold front will cross the region from west to east on Saturday, with some additional cloudiness, although I am leaning away from any rain shower threat. This front will bring slightly cooler air into the region through Sunday, which itself will be a nice day as high pressure moves across the region. And then things get a little more fun for the last day of November (Monday) and first of December (Tuesday). A more amplified upper level pattern puts a deeper trough of low pressure into the eastern US and in response a fairly impressive surface storm system will get going, and track into the Great Lakes. That track puts our area on the mild side of the storm and we can expect a decent shot of rain and wind later Monday as a result. We’ll get into some drying by Tuesday as the cold front trailing that low pushes offshore, but plenty of upper level energy means that we’ll have additional rain shower chances Tuesday.

Details…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 49-56. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 31-38. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Thickening clouds. Numerous rain showers arrive west to east midday and afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind SE to S increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast evening with widespread rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Breaking clouds overnight with a chance of addition rain showers. Lows 45-52. Wind S 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 2-6)

Low pressure in eastern Canada sends a trough through the Northeast and may trigger a few rain and/or snow showers as it turns colder Decmeber 2. High pressure passing south of the region brings fair, cool, breezy weaher December 3 and dry, seasonably cool and more tranquil weather December 4. December 5-6 weekend – starts fair and chilly, ends with rain/mix/snow threat as we’ll have to watch low pressure approaching from the southwest. Too early to know the track and details of this potential system.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 7-11)

Indications of some blocking in the pattern which could result in near to below normal temperatures and near to above normal precipitation, including wintry weather chances, during this period.

Thursday November 26 2020 Forecast (8:36AM)

COMMENTARY

Nobody needs to be reminded what the last 10 months have been like. Regardless of your point of view and set of beliefs on the many issues that impact us daily, we all have one paramount commonality. We are all human beings, capable of understanding and compassion, and we should exercise that to the best of our ability every day, for every day is a gift and an opportunity for you to make what you can out of. I realize for some, for many in fact, there are things out of our control – health and other issues, life circumstances, etc. This is where I sincerely hope we have at least a friend and/or loved one we can count on, who will be there for us, knowing we’d be there for them if and when needed. Nobody is going to magically fix a health issue, something going wrong in somebody’s life, or make disease disappear. If only we could… What we can do is only the best we can do: support one another, make choices, some of which will be mistakes. Learn from the mistakes, grow with the successes, share what is good with those around you, and if we all do the same, we’d be spreading something that everybody would benefit from. It’s time to put aside differences, turn our backs on hatred, and try to be thankful for what we have. It’s not always an easy thing to do, but we have to try. Wherever you find yourselves today, I hope you have the happiest Thanksgiving that you can possibly have. And I thank all of you for supporting this blog, which is nearing its tenth anniversary. Where does the time go? Take care, friends. Be safe. Peace.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

Discussion…

Shifting gears now, onto the weather, and an active pattern sends yet another storm system into our region for the holiday. The down-side is that it makes local travel and “outdoor dining” for the holiday much less pleasant, and the up-side is that we get another good dose of rain to contribute to reducing our long-term precipitation deficit. There’s enough instability in the atmosphere that as an occluding frontal system passes through, we’ll have rounds of showers, some heavy, that may include thunder. In 2017 we had thundersnow on Christmas and we may have thunder for Thanksgiving today. All that’s left is a good old fashioned Halloween thunderstorm, right? Maybe next year… 😉 Today, our greatest chance of thunder will be south of Boston as that area is in the warmest and most unstable air. As was suspected, the warm air has had trouble pushing too far to the north, with the boundary having even slipped back to the south again late yesterday. This “cold air damming” set-up is rather common around here, especially in the colder season from later autumn through mid spring, and is something that a lot of computer guidance will have trouble with, often under-predicting its influence. Thankfully, the surface temperatures on the cold side of the boundary over interior northern MA and southern NH sit above freezing, so we’re not seeing any icing issues, just cold, raw, wet weather. Closer to the coast of MA down through RI we’ve seen the milder air move in with a little more ease, and temperatures as of 8 a.m. range from the upper 40s to middle 50s. We won’t see too much more rise in these areas, perhaps a few upper 50s to near 60 degree readings over parts of southeastern MA and RI to go along with the showers and downpours. The main front pushes through the region this evening and the wet weather will move out, but initially, winds will be fairly light and there may be some areas of fog to contend with, so keep that in mind if you have evening or nighttime travel plans, as visibility may be reduced. Some improvement takes place tomorrow, but it may be very tough to break up all the cloudiness that remains, as we don’t have a really strong push of westerly wind to help. While an upper disturbance coming by may trigger a quick passing shower, most areas will remain dry during the day, despite the cloudiness, and the air will be fairly mild, so while the ground may remain damp, otherwise it won’t be too bad out there is you plan to get outside to walk or put up Christmas lights / decorations. If you wait for Saturday and Sunday to do these things, you’ll be in luck too. Other than a weak cold front moving through from west to east with some clouds and a very remote chance of a quick shower Saturday, it won’t be a bad day. Sunday ends up a bit cooler but will feature more sunshine. Don’t get used to that though. Things change quickly on Monday as the next storm system takes shape and heads this way. The low track on this one will be west of New England, and by later Monday we’ll find ourselves in a pretty significant southerly air flow and staring at a band of moderate to heavy rainfall. While it’s still a handful of days away, the initial thought on this is that it will be a late day and nighttime “main event” of rain, wind, and possible thunder – something to monitor and tweak as we get closer to it. But it looks like November may borrow the March lion for its exit.

Details…

TODAY (THANKSGIVING): Cloudy. Numerous to widespread rain showers, including the chance of thunderstorms favoring the South Coast region. Highs 45-52 interior northern MA and southern NH, 53-60 elsewhere. Wind E under 10 MPH interior northern MA and southern NH, SE to S 5-15 MPH elsewhere.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Scattered showers and a chance of a thunderstorm in the evening. Spotty drizzle and areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 50-57. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy morning and midday with a slight chance of a brief rain shower, then mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind W around 10 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 31-38. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Thickening clouds. Numerous rain showers arrive west to east by late-day or night. Highs 53-60. Wind SE to S increasing to 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 1-5)

As December gets underway, we’ll be dealing with a more amplified pattern that has a trough in the interior eastern US initially, putting our area in a southwesterly air flow aloft. The storm that approaches us on Monday will likely have a broad center across the Great Lakes region with us in mild air with a rain shower threat on December 1, although much of that day may end up rain-free. Some cooler air will get in here in modified form behind this system as it lifts away into eastern Canada and shifts the wind to more westerly December 2-3. We’ll have to watch for another storm threat December 4 and/or 5, with timing uncertain. Odds would favor our area being on the milder side of that system as well, as the pattern would probably still favor a low track over the interior eastern US, but given model divergence and inconsistency, we’ll be having to do a lot of defining of possibility and detail with this system as that time draws closer.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 6-10)

Continued hints of an evolving blocking pattern with additional chances of unsettled weather here, but with a trend toward a little colder weather as well, we’ll have to start thinking about the possibility of some wintry weather. Keep in mind, this is just a rough outlook on a pattern that may evolve more slowly, and that the forecast itself as low confidence based on the reasons previously discussed. So think of this as a “very rough draft outlook” if you will. 🙂