Monday May 31 2021 Forecast (8:12AM)

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

Memorial Day 2021. We’ve all been talking about the unseasonably chilly and wet weather that we’ve had the past few days after having a relatively very nice spring overall. We can complain about it or accept it, hate it or love it, but let’s all take some time to remember why we get to hide from the weather or face it head on. A big part of that reason are people who served us and paid the ultimate sacrifice, and will never get to walk in rain or sun again. Please remember them as you go about your day today….. As far as the weather, we’re not quite out of this yet, but you’ll see signs of improvement today as the most numerous of the lingering showers are occurring as I write this blog update, and are moving through eastern MA and southern NH. In fact, I just had a tiny but heavy downpour cross my location (about 7:40 a.m.). As a low pressure center cuts right across the region and then slowly exits via the Gulf of Maine by midday and afternoon, we’ll see less shower coverage, becoming just isolated, but there will still be enough instability left in the atmosphere that a shower or even isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out right up until the end of the day. Tonight, the drier air finally moves in behind the low for some clearing. This will mark the end of May and meteorological spring, having seen four chilly and fairly wet days, not very representative of meteorological spring overall, which was mild in general, and had significant amounts of dry weather despite some episodes of beneficial rainfall, helping our precipitation deficit get reduced. Meteorological summer arrives Tuesday, the first day of June, and we’ll immediately see a turn in the weather pattern that will put you in summer mode. While Tuesday will only be somewhat warmer, with at least partial sunshine and high temperatures over 70, it will feel quite different than the days preceding it. This trend will continue Wednesday with another warm day, but some clouds will increase later in the day and at night as a weak disturbance approaches. At this time I think the shower activity will hang back mostly to the west of the region at least during the day, but a couple may wander in sometime at night. With high pressure becoming established off the US East Coast toward Bermuda, and a frontal system trying to move into the region from the northwest, Thursday and Friday should be fairly warm and on the humid side, featuring more cloudiness, especially Friday, and some risk of showers and thunderstorms, weighted more toward Friday as it stands now.

TODAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Cloudy with areas of fog and numerous to scattered showers morning. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming W to NW 5-15 MPH during the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patches of fog forming. Lows 48-55. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. More humid with dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 77-84. Humid – dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Humid – dew point 60+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 73-80. Humid – dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 7-10 (JUNE 5-9)

High pressure will anchor off the US East Coast and probably keep that frontal boundary I talked about mostly to the west and north of the region. Weekend of June 5-6 sees some clouds to start then overall more sun both days with increased heat and moderate to borderline high humidity, but probably no rain threat other than possibly a shower to start out June 5. June 7-9 will see that frontal boundary closer at times with a few opportunities for showers/storms.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 10-14)

High pressure offshore should weaken, more of a zonal flow pattern arrives with variable temperatures and a few shower threats amidst mostly dry weather.

Sunday May 30 2021 Forecast (6:46AM)

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 30 – JUNE 3)

This middle of Memorial Day Weekend blog update will be short. There’s not much change to what was written yesterday. We’re in the midst of a chilly, unsettled stretch of weather that coincided with the long holiday weekend that’s the unofficial start of the summer season, taking on special meaning this year as we come down the home stretch of a year plus that’s been anything but “normal”. Many would love to get out and enjoy some nice weather, but if you get out there again today you’ll have to act more like it’s March. That’s the way it goes sometimes! The next low pressure wave brings its round of rainfall, which will turn more showery in nature as it goes on later today through tonight. Still have hope we get it to exit early enough to salvage a good deal of Memorial Day Monday rain-free. It will warm up slightly that day as well as we lose the northeasterly wind that we still have today. We’re finally free of this system as June arrives, and the first few days look more typically mild to warm for early June, along with slightly higher humidity and eventually the risk for some shower activity as a disturbance and frontal boundary move into the area during the middle of the week…

TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog and drizzle especially near the eastern coast. Rain returns south to north during the morning, becoming showery later. Highs 48-55. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-30 MPH, strongest in coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of a thunderstorm overnight. Areas of fog and drizzle. Temperatures steady 48-55. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW during the morning then NW during the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog possible. Lows 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers late-day favoring areas south and west of Boston. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. More humid with dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 77-84. Humid – dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 7-10 (JUNE 4-8)

An intrusion of cooler air may arrive early in the period before warmer air returns with the general pattern featuring high pressure offshore, high pressure in Canada, and a weak boundary nearby. Episodes of showers and a few thunderstorms are possible at times during this period, with timing uncertain this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 9-13)

Overall idea right now is similar pattern will continue but shower threat may decrease somewhat.

Saturday May 29 2021 Forecast (8:18AM)

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

The timing may not be great, but after a fairly warm and dry meteorological spring, we are going to end it with a stretch of cool and wet weather over the Memorial Day Weekend. This happens as a frontal boundary sits to the south of the region and a series of low pressure waves travel along it. The first of these spread its rain into the region late yesterday and provided a good soaking of 1 to 2 inches, much of it falling during the night time hours. Today, as that first low pressure wave departs, the rain will taper off and some residual moisture result in a few more areas of mostly lighter rain crossing the area in patches while low level moisture on a northeast wind creates pockets of drizzle, especially closer to eastern coastal areas. Temperatures that fell into the 40s during the night due to the combination of the advance of a chilly eastern Canadian airmass into the region and colder air being brought down from above by rainfall will hardly recover at all today. With the thick overcast in place, very limited solar radiation will make it through, only enough to “warm” us up a few degrees, so early morning temperatures which range from 42 to 49 across the WHW forecast area will only warm about 3 degrees maximum in any given location. In comparison to the middle 80s to lower 90s we experienced just 3 days ago, that feels pretty cold! However, we’ve seen this happen both in the cool-down and warm-up directions many times here in the spring. It’s just one characteristic of our climate. Another important note: While we’re not exactly experiencing good beach weather this weekend, over the next couple of days, the combination of astronomically high tides and an onshore wind up to moderate speeds will result in areas of coastal flooding around the times of high tides. Water levels may be up to around a foot above normal during peak high tide times, so keep this in mind if you will be near the water. Looking ahead a little, the next main low pressure wave will respond to an upper level wind that turns a little more southerly, and this low is now expected to cut across the Connecticut Valley late Sunday through early Monday, with a more showery rainfall pattern resulting, with fairly good coverage of showers any time Sunday into the morning hours of Memorial Day Monday. If we see a tongue of drier air move up from the southwest quickly enough, it may end up drier for some of the Memorial Day ceremonies being held on Monday, but that part of the forecast will have to be tweaked right up into that morning since it’s hard to predict the timing of showery precipitation, and it will come down to exact location of the low center and trough axis. With a bit more southerly air flow evolving during the latter portion of the weekend, we’ll warm things up slightly, so that some locations may get back to the 60s during Monday. So this ends Meteorological Spring, which was warm and dry overall, on a chilly and wet note, but provides some additional beneficial rainfall. Looking ahead, June begins on a warmer note with a bit more humid feel as high pressure sits over the Middle Atlantic region to just offshore of there on Tuesday and Wednesday, but while this goes on a frontal boundary will be drifting toward our area from the west, bringing with it some clouds, and possibly leading to the chance of showers again by later Wednesday…

TODAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of drizzle and fog. Highs 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH inland and 10-20 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog especially near the coast. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-30 MPH, strongest at the coast.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely in the morning. Showers likely in the afternoon. Areas of fog and drizzle. Highs 48-55. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-30 MPH, strongest in coastal areas.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of a thunderstorm overnight. Areas of fog and drizzle. Temperatures steady 48-55. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW during the morning then NW during the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog possible. Lows 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers late-day or evening. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 7-10 (JUNE 3-7)

Seasonably warm, more humid, and episodes of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms with the general pattern likely to feature high pressure offshore, high pressure in Canada, and a weak boundary nearby. An intrusion of cooler air is possible around June 4-5, but not certain.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 8-12)

Overall idea right now is similar pattern will continue but shower threat may decrease somewhat.

Friday May 28 2021 Forecast (7:39AM)

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

The weather is going to be much cooler than it has been recently and on the unsettled side as we head into and through the Memorial Day Weekend. That much has become clear. The little details of the day-to-day weather are being worked out in each forecast update, and it’s coming into focus that it looks like our wettest weather will be tonight and Saturday morning and during the day Sunday. Sunday’s timing is a little faster than what was indicated yesterday. While I’m not ready to declare Monday a “save”, there is still a chance of some shower activity based on what I see now, but we may salvage part of that day with some dry weather and even some sun. Basically, the unsettled weather is going to the the result of two low pressure areas. The first one comes at the region via the Ohio Valley tonight into Saturday, passing just to the south on a frontal boundary sitting there. We’ll have a chilly northeast to east wind during this. Not atypical for late spring, while some of us were at or above 90 just a couple days ago, most of us will be stuck in the 50s, even some upper 40s, during Saturday and Sunday. We get a break in the rain as the first low moves away during Saturday, but a second low pressure area forming on the boundary to the south will then be pulled northward right into New England on Sunday, bringing the rain back. There is still a little bit of conflict among the various computer guidance about how far west this low tracks, with some guidance bringing it far enough west that we get into a more humid southerly air flow for a time Sunday night into Monday, ending that with a round of showers before the wind switches to north, while other guidance keeps that low center further east and keeps us on its cooler side, but also pulls it out of here quickly enough so that the majority of Memorial Day Monday is dry. At the moment, my leaning is toward the second scenario, but not without some threat of wet weather to at least start the day before potential improvement. There will still be some fine-tuning needed for this forecast. By Tuesday, high pressure will be offshore to the southeast of New England and we’ll see immediate results in the form of warmer weather to welcome June.

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Rain arrives west to east late afternoon / evening. Highs 60-67. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain tapering to drizzle then ending by late morning. Highs 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain returning south to north in the morning. Areas of fog. Highs 50-57. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog possible. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 7-10 (JUNE 2-6)

Seasonably warm, more humid, and episodes of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms with the general pattern likely to feature high pressure offshore, high pressure in Canada, and a weak boundary nearby. An intrusion of cooler air is possible around June 4-5, but not certain.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 7-11)

Overall idea right now is similar pattern will continue.

Thursday May 27 2021 Forecast (7:13AM)

DAYS 1-6 (MAY 27-31)

Suddenly we’re in one of those periods of time where forecast confidence takes a hit, even in the short term. It happens, and there’s not much a forecaster can do about it, other than re-evaluate and try again each update! Yes we already had some uncertainty about the upcoming weekend with conflicting guidance which then suddenly reversed roles and now look a bit more in agreement. But just yesterday, last evening / night specifically, many of us, myself included, were expecting a broken line of showers and storms, heaviest to the northwest, struggling to touch any areas south of Boston. What we got was a much more widespread rainfall event for a good portion of the region. Yes, some areas still were missed, but just here at home, for example, while our thunderstorms were not the type you’re going to remember, we ended up with several hours of beneficial rainfall, which might have made the forecast look bad, but was beneficial for our deficit and cleaning out the air and washing off surfaces of the abundant pollen that had been about. And now we move on, looking ahead through the Memorial Day Weekend, which today looks a little less “nice” than I had been leaning. The forecast idea is basically the same today and tomorrow, with high pressure moving in (though staying north) today with drying, still warm but no longer hot air, and generally nice weather. Much cooler air arrives for Friday and may be around for most of if not the entire Memorial Day Weekend while a string of low pressure areas are close enough to plague the region with occasional wet weather. Even at this point the details are still somewhat fuzzy, but the forecast below will reflect a little “less dry” outlook than what it had been doing previously… And who knows, this may look different yet again tomorrow. I’m not as confident as I’d like to be right now!

TODAY: Some early clouds, then mostly sunny. Drying air. Highs 77-84. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain by late in the day. Highs 62-69. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Lows 48-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with period of rain and drizzle in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain especially eastern and southern areas. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain especially eastern and southern areas. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain especially eastern and southern areas. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain in the morning. Highs 60-67. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 7-10 (JUNE 1-5)

The first few days of June are expected to feature a return to seasonable warmth and slightly higher humidity as a couple disturbances move through the region, but with limited chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. This may be followed by a shot of cooler air from Canada at the end of the period but very low confidence here.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 6-10)

Low confidence but indications of a weak boundary in the region, cool Canadian air to the north, warmer and more humid air to the south. Not sure which will dominate just yet, but usually this set up leads to occasionally showery weather.