Tuesday August 31 2021 Forecast (7:29AM)

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

The final day of August will be one of the nicer days of the summer with a sun/cloud mix, lowering humidity, but still warm, as a weak area of high pressure moves in. This high pressure area will move away by early Wednesday and we will then eye the approach of the low pressure area that was once Hurricane Ida from the southwest. As this area of low pressure and its associated moisture stretches out along a frontal boundary as it moves into and through the region Wednesday night into Thursday, it becomes more difficult to pinpoint where the axis of heaviest rainfall will be. Similar to a winter system there can be a rather sharp drop off in precipitation gradient, and even the timing is still a little in question, with some guidance taking the system out of here rather quickly Thursday afternoon while other models linger the rainfall into Thursday evening. Currently, my leaning is slightly faster on the timing, but still a significant rainfall (over 1 inch and up to a few inches of rain) especially in the I-95 & I-90 belts south and east. Tweaks to come if needed. Drier air arrives Friday but still have to watch for a pop up shower due to marginal instability being worked on by daytime heating. High pressure brings great weather Saturday to start off Labor Day Weekend.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 80-87. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 70-77. Dew point near 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with rain likely, tapering off late day when clouds may break especially northwest of Boston. Areas of fog through midday. Highs 65-72. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partial clearing. Areas of fog. Any lingering rain ends. Lows 58-65. Dew point lower 60s to upper 50s. Wind N to NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers. Highs 71-78. Dew point near 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches forming interior lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point middle 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

Sunday of Labor Day Weekend (Sep 5) will be fair, mild, and a tiny bit more humid as high pressure shifts and the wind blows from the southwest. Labor Day Monday features warm and humid weather with a chance of passing showers and thunderstorms as a cold front approaches the region. Trend is to drier/cooler for the middle of next week but the transition may be a little delayed to get there with one more disturbance to come through. Will keep an eye on that.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

Cool/dry interlude early period, warming up again mid to late period as a larger area of high pressure drifts from northwest to southeast across the Northeast. A period of showers may accompany the shift from cooler to warmer weather.

Monday August 30 2021 Forecast (7:40AM)

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

A warm front is passing through the region this morning and introducing a shot of very warm and muggy air, but a cold front approaching on the quick from the northwest will also trigger the chance of showers and thunderstorms today, especially mid afternoon into evening. I’m not expecting widespread but rather scattered coverage of these showers and storms in one or possibly two waves. Any of the storms can become strong to severe, but this will be a rather isolated occurrence. Activity settles down later this evening and overnight as the front pushes through and introduces a slightly drier air mass for Tuesday, although it will still be on the warm side with a sun/cloud mix for the final day of August. Cooler air will filter in at night as the wind shifts more to the north and eventually to the east. September arrives Wednesday and we’ll be watching the remains of Hurricane Ida, heading in our direction from the southwest. As this event draws closer, it looks like the low pressure area that was once the hurricane, in the form of a post-tropical , weaker but defined low pressure center, will be passing to the south of New England, far enough to keep us from re-entering the tropical air mass on the other side of the front the low will have linked up with, but close enough to spread its rain shield into southeastern New England, with current timing Wednesday night and Thursday. Some guidance moves this out rather quickly Thursday while other guidance allows it to hang around longer into Thursday night too. So the end-timing is still a bit in question. I have slowed it down slightly in comparison to yesterday’s outlook. Regardless, drier air moves in by Friday but there may be just enough instability left in the atmosphere to pop a couple diurnal showers.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible mainly southern NH and central MA early afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible all areas mid afternoon on. Highs 81-88. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, can be strong and gusty near any storms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms into late evening favoring eastern MA, RI, and eastern CT. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to lower 60s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 80-87. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 70-77. Dew point near 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with rain likely, tapering off late day when clouds may break especially northwest of Boston. Areas of fog through midday. Highs 65-72. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partial clearing. Areas of fog. Any lingering rain ends. Lows 58-65. Dew point lower 60s to upper 50s. Wind N to NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers. Highs 71-78. Dew point near 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

Labor Day Weekend… High pressure in control to start with dry and pleasant Saturday September 4 with low humidity, then similar Sunday September 5 with a slight increase in humidity. Monday September 6 humid with passing showers and thunderstorms possible as a cold front approaches and passes through the region. Drier, cooler weather expected to arrive for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

Warmest early and late period, cooler interlude mid period with an air mass from Canada. Showers will be limited, probably the best chance with air mass change late September 9 or September 10.

Sunday August 29 2021 Forecast (8:49AM)

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

Showers that I did not forecast very well got into the area last night wetting down some Saturday evening plans – not one of my better short-term forecasts! Ah well! Those have moved out for now and we are left with a mainly cloudy Sunday as a warm front approaches the region, and I do think any shower activity today will be limited to this evening and tonight as the front moves through. This will introduce warmer and humid air to the region for Monday, a day which carries a shower and thunderstorm chance as we will be in a smaller warm wedge of air between that warm front and an approaching cold front. We’ll have to keep an eye on the situation tomorrow as a few strong or severe thunderstorms are possible. The cells should be isolated to scattered during the day with the possibility of a more organized broken or perhaps solid line crossing at least parts of the region from late afternoon into evening. This front should clear the region by early Tuesday, a day that will still be warm but less humid to end of the month of August. The first couple of days of September will find our attention on the remains of Hurricane Ida (making landfall today as a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Louisiana coast). The remains should have an impact with some rainfall in our area Wednesday into Thursday, the timing and exact orientation of which still will have to be pinned down. Early estimate: Wednesday PM to Thursday AM, heaviest in southeastern areas, but don’t lock this in yet. Anything from a shift northward with heaviest rain north and showery weather here to a complete miss to the south remains on the table.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers mainly south and west of Boston by later in the day. Highs 70-77, coolest eastern coastal areas. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 85-92. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to lower 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 80-87. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain chances go up as the day goes on. Highs 70-77. Dew point rising to lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

High pressure should bring dry weather and a warming trend September 3-5 though a brief interruption of clouds and a shower threat may occur between late September 4 and early September 5 as humidity increases. Frontal system interacts with higher humidity bringing a shower chance later in the period, but not completely sure on timing this far out. Continued early call on Labor Day Weekend (September 4-6) is not too bad overall.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

Cooler/drier trend early to mid period, warm-up late period. Mostly dry weather is expected.

Saturday August 28 2021 Forecast (8:59AM)

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

You know we’re approaching the finish line of Meteorological Summer when August no longer lasts the 5-day forecast period in section one of my blog! Well here we are, in the final weekend of August and the last 4 days of Meteorological Summer, and it’s been a wet one. Hot? Not so much, because July was not. Hotter beginning and very warm ending with cool interlude as a more accurate way to describe the June-August period. Although these last 4 days have a bit of both, cooler this weekend and a spike in heat and humidity Monday before we settle things back to seasonable by Tuesday. How do we get there? Well after our recent spell of heat and humidity, we brought a cold front down across the region yesterday with not much fanfare other than a few isolated areas of showers and thunderstorms, but during the night the cooler air really arrived and this morning feels far different, as will a good part of the weekend, with a maritime polar air mass in place. We do pay for this with a lot of cloud cover this weekend, although there will be some periods of sun too, especially today and part of Sunday morning. The good news is that any rainfall will be limited to just a chance of showers later Sunday as a warm front approaches the region. This front will cross Sunday night and re-introduce warm to hot and more humid weather to us for Monday, a day that will also bring with it the chance of showers and thunderstorms behind that warm front and ahead of a cold front. I need a little more time to sort out the details on the shower and storm threat and the potential for any severe weather, but keep in mind that Monday and Monday evening do carry that potential at this time. Tuesday, a cold front will push through the region early, leaving us with a westerly air flow, less humid but seasonably warm weather to end August. Wednesday, the first day of September, our attention will be on the remains of Hurricane Ida (forecast to make landfall as a powerful hurricane on the Gulf Coast, likely Louisiana, later this weekend). The remnant moisture from that system will move through the lower Mississippi Valley then the lower Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday, then make a run at the Northeast later Wednesday. The question to be answered is how far north the northern limit of the rainfall will get. Our medium range guidance is split on this, but I feel there is at least a decent chance at a moderate rainfall event for at least a portion of the region – something I will watch and fine-tune.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 70-77, coolest eastern coastal areas. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers mainly south and west of Boston by later in the day. Highs 68-75, coolest eastern coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 60s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 85-92. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to lower 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 80-87. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain chances go up as the day goes on. Highs 70-77. Dew point rising to lower 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

Any Ida remnant moisture linked up with a frontal boundary should exit September 2 with drying and seasonably cooler air for a brief time. High pressure brings dry weather and a warming trend September 3-4 before a disturbance brings a chance of showers September 5 followed by more dry but mild to warm weather September 6. From this you can see the early call on the Labor Day Weekend (September 4-6) to be not all that bad.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

Unsettled with a chance of showers to start this period, followed by a cooler/dry trend as we get a stronger northwesterly air flow out of Canada with a trough moving through the Northeast.

Friday August 27 2021 Forecast (7:39AM)

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 27-31)

Heat and humidity hang on especially for southern areas for one more day but a back-door cold front will cross the region during the day today into this evening putting an end to the hot spell. The front, besides a wind shift and temperature drop, won’t produce much more than an isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly south of I-90 sometime today, if anything at all. High pressure builds across eastern Canada supplying cooler maritime air for the weekend and the front will come to a stop just south of New England before starting to return as a warm front later Sunday. I’m optimistic that enough dry air will be supplied by the high pressure area to keep us mainly dry for the weekend, with even partial sunshine, but showers should become more possible especially in southern and western areas with the approach of the warm front later Sunday. The front pushes across the region Sunday night into early Monday delivering a warm to hot and humid air mass to us once again, but this time for a very brief visit as a well defined cold front then approaches later Monday from the northwest and passes through the region Monday night and early Tuesday, bringing a drier Canadian air mass in, this time a continental polar air mass from the northwest for a warm but drier end to the month of August.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible midday and afternoon mainly south of I-90. Highs 85-92. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s north to south to start, then gradually decreasing north to south. Wind NW shifting to NE increasing to 5-15 MPH from north to south.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest eastern coastal areas. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers mainly south and west of Boston by later in the day. Highs 68-75, coolest eastern coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s to lower 60s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 85-92. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to lower 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 80-87. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

The moisture from the remains of a Gulf of Mexico tropical system (Ida) may impact our area with a chance of rain sometime September 1 into September 2, depending on how they move into and through the eastern US. Behind that should be a period of warm and humid weather for a day or two before a Canadian cold front brings a shower/thunderstorm threat by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

One or two shots of cooler/dry air are possible during this period, but the details cannot be determined just yet. This should be a drier period of weather overall, but at least one shower threat should take place with an air mass change.