Thursday September 30 2021 Forecast (7:26AM)

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

This final day of September will be a cool one and an upper level low spinning over the region (center just to the east and north) which is sending a band of showers across the South Coast as the day dawns will also provide the instability for some pop up afternoon / early evening showers later today. This low will slide to the east enough so that we will have dry weather Friday, and then the high pressure area approaching from the west is going to have its top pinched from 2 sides – from the upper low still not that far away in eastern Canada, and the approach of moisture from a new system to the west. This interaction probably means varying amounts of clouds for the weekend, but at this time I expect the dry air to be substantial enough to keep away a rain threat. That probably can’t hold any longer by Monday, which is looking more like a wet day at this time. And once again, if you have plans near the coast this weekend, be aware of increased ocean swells / surf and rip current risk as a result of distant offshore Hurricane Sam.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers South Coast early. Isolated to scattered showers redeveloping during the afternoon hours. Highs 58-65, coolest in higher elevations of southwestern NH through central MA. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53 except 38-45 interior lower elevations. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

FRIDAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45 interior areas, 45-52 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind WSW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 58-65. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 5-9)

The beginning of this period may start unsettled before high pressure from the north wins the battle and we turn drier with fairly seasonable temperatures. Still have to keep an eye on low pressure to the south.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 10-14)

High pressure should be more dominant with drier weather in this stretch of time, and we should also start to see a transition to more westerly flow again in the larger scale pattern.

Wednesday September 29 2021 Forecast (7:29AM)

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

The feel of the cool side of early autumn has arrived and will continue for a few days. Upper level low pressure will still be over the region through Thursday and a disturbance brings the chance of some shower activity from late today into Thursday, though most of this time will be rain-free. The upper low pulls far enough east to eliminate the shower threat by Friday, so the end of the week and at least the start of the weekend will be dry. The question to answer is whether or not the dry weather lasts through the weekend. There are already indications that “spill-over” moisture, or an area of unsettled weather coming up over a ridge of high pressure to our west will slide down on a northwest flow and potentially at least cloud us up for Sunday if not bring some rain into the region, but enough dry air may be in place to hold this off at least for a while. Also, this is a reminder if you have plans near the coast to be aware of increasing ocean swells / surf and rip current risk by this weekend as a result of distant offshore Hurricane Sam.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. A late-day shower possible favoring southern NH and northern MA. Highs 61-68. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers. Lows 50-57. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers. Highs 58-65, coolest in higher elevations of southwestern NH through central MA. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45 interior areas, 45-52 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain at night. Highs 59-66. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 4-8)

At least the first half of this period is vulnerable to unsettled weather with periods of rain as it appears we’ll be in the battle zone between high pressure to the north and low pressure nearby or to the south. There is still the chance that high pressure wins the battle and the region ends up drier, especially later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 9-13)

High pressure should be more dominant with drier weather in this stretch of time, and we should also start to see a transition to more westerly flow again in the larger scale pattern.

Tuesday September 28 2021 Forecast (7:22AM)

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

A cold front will push through the WHW forecast area today, bringing shower activity and perhaps a few thunderstorms. The activity will be most widespread in CT, RI, and southern MA which are also the areas that run the higher risk of any thunder. This front pushes offshore later tonight and introduces the coolest air mass of the early autumn season so far which peaks in coolness Thursday before moderating a little later in the week. Upper level low pressure brings the chance of a few showers to the region later Wednesday into Thursday before high pressure supplies dry weather. Look for increasing ocean swells / surf and rip current risk by the end of this forecast period as a result of distant offshore Hurricane Sam.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers, favoring southern MA southward, with a chance thunderstorms especially south of I-90. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with additional showers South Coast, otherwise clearing. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix with a pop up shower possible. Highs 61-68. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 50-57. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers during the morning. Partly cloudy with an isolated shower possible during the afternoon. Highs 58-65, coolest higher elevations central MA / southwestern NH. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45 interior areas, 45-52 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)

High pressure centered mainly to the north of New England should be close enough to make dry weather dominant, but a couple of areas of low pressure to the south need to be watched, and one may be close enough for a rainy interlude about October 4 before another threatens later in the period. Temperatures near normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 8-12)

The same general pattern should be in place with high pressure having a tendency to be near and north of the region while areas of low pressure to the south and disturbances to the west have to be watched. The idea remains to lean dry but know that the door is open for wet weather intrusions. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

Monday September 27 2021 Forecast (7:28AM)

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

A warm front crosses the region today but most of the shower activity associated with it goes across northern New England, leaving us with a mild sun/cloud mix kind of day. A cold front drops through New England from northwest to southeast tonight through Tuesday with little activity on it initially, but a recharge arrives in the form of an upper level disturbance from the west, meaning that southern MA, CT, and RI stand the greatest chance of shower activity from this front during the day Tuesday, with even a thunderstorm possible in a few areas. This front pushes offshore Tuesday night and ushers in a cool air mass for the middle of the week, but with an upper level trough moving across the region and surface high pressure back to the west and north, this leaves the door open for a few pop up showers Wednesday, and even a few more solid areas of showers moving through Wednesday night into Thursday with the help of a disturbance. High pressure edges closer as the trough pulls off to the east by Friday, with the first day of October likely featuring some diurnal clouds popping up but this time not leading to anything more than an isolated brief light shower in a few locations on an otherwise dry and pleasant though breezy day.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A couple showers possible southern NH to northeastern MA. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20+ MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower possible, mainly across southern NH. Lows 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers, favoring southern MA southward, with a slight chance of a thunderstorm mainly south of I-90. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix with a pop up shower possible. Highs 61-68. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 50-57. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers during the morning. Partly cloudy with an isolated shower possible during the afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix with a brief light shower possible. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 2-6)

High pressure is expected to bring dry weather for the October 2-3 weekend with coolest weather Saturday and slightly moderating temperatures Sunday. Watching early the following week for at least temporary impact from low pressure to the south with the possibility of some rainfall during the early part of the October 4-6 window then drying out again with generally seasonable temperatures. We’ll also be dealing with increased ocean swells / surf in coastal areas from far-offshore Hurricane Sam.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 7-11)

The same general pattern may be in place with high pressure having a tendency to be near and north of the region while areas of low pressure to the south and disturbances to the west have to be watched. The idea at this time it to lean dry with near to above normal temperatures for the predominant pattern.

Sunday September 26 2021 Forecast (8:03AM)

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

We’ve reached the final 5 days of September, and the final moments of the impact from a low pressure wave along that slow moving frontal boundary that has been around for the past 2 days. A decent slug of rain and some embedded thunderstorms visited eastern MA, RI, and southeastern NH overnight and very early this morning, and is rapidly exiting as I write. The canopy of cloudiness (and a few remaining showers) left behind will be exiting from southwest to northeast during this morning, turning today into something looking far different than it started out as drier air arrives. A small area of high pressure helping to bring this dry air in will hang around through Monday, another very nice day, dry but on the mild side. And then it’s time for a bit of a change, which will be signaled by scattered showers as a trough swings through and a cold front crosses the region during Tuesday. Behind this will be the coolest push of air so far this early autumn season for the middle of the week, with the help of high pressure building from Canada into the Great Lakes region, and a broad area of low pressure east of New England. The only thing we will have to watch for is the potential for a pop up instability shower one or both of those days, but odds are against it based on the evidence at my disposal at this time.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with lingering scattered showers southeastern NH and eastern MA until the 8 a.m. hour except Cape Cod through 9 a.m. hour, otherwise increasing sun from southwest to northeast later this morning. Sunshine and passing clouds midday-afternoon. Lowering humidity. Highs 70-77. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, especially midday on.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of a shower late. Lows 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 65-72. Wind SW to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 61-68. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 1-5)

As mentioned yesterday, there will be “things to watch” that threaten what otherwise can be a fairly dry start to October with cool air followed by moderating temperatures. The biggest threat to the fair weather outlook will be the evolution of low pressure south of New England, which seems as if it would be more of a threat toward the end of this 5-day period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 6-10)

There is evidence on medium range guidance still that the same battle between high pressure near or over the Northeast and low pressure to the south may continue into if not all the way through this period as well. This leaves a lot of uncertainty as this means the weather can range from unsettled / stormy (if low pressure is close enough) to tranquil (if high pressure is in firm enough control). So this will be one of those instances that you can hear the forecaster say “I really have no idea what the weather is going to be like.”. 😉