Saturday June 6 2020 Forecast

129 Comments

7:53AM

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 6-10)

Update and adjustment time. Not too many big adjustments to the forecast as we begin the weekend. Today, a cold front will cross the region, cutting into the humid air and causing some showers and thunderstorms to pop up. Where some of the shorter range guidance had one rather thin line of showers/storms on yesterday’s runs, they have adjusted to a more scattered line-segment set-up on recent runs. Either way, the region runs risk of 1 or 2 showers and/or thunderstorms in any given location with timing being mainly noon to 6PM favoring the northwestern half of the region (southwestern NH through central MA to near the I-95 belt) during the first three hours and areas to the southeast during the remainder of the afternoon. By this evening, it will all settle down and we’ll already be seeing drier air flowing into the region behind the cold front. This sets up a beautiful Sunday, night? Not so fast. For a couple days now I’ve been eyeing the possibility that Sunday will at least feature cloudiness and possibly some shower activity. Both look to be the case, but it won’t be a wash-out, not nearly so. A low pressure area will develop offshore on the front that has gone by, high pressure will be centered in eastern Canada, and there will be cold air aloft. This combination will produce lots of clouds and some pop up shower activity with the greatest shower risk being during the afternoon hours of Sunday over southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI. Drier air will win out eventually and both Monday & Tuesday look like much sunnier days but with temperatures still slightly below average. By Wednesday, we will see a warm up as we’ll have seen high pressure shift its way southeastward and we’ll be into a west to southwest air flow at that time. Sometimes these warm-ups are met with more cloud cover, other times not really, so I am playing it down the middle for now.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Risk of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, favoring areas I-95 belt northwestward first half of afternoon, then areas to the southeast mid through late afternoon. Humid, then drying out late-day. Highs 80-87, cooler Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW by late afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows 55-62. Wind NW up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers, mainly afternoon favoring the I-95 belt. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 11-15)

Advancing warmer air and higher humidity means more cloudiness but limited rain chances June 11, then a better chance of showers and possible thunderstorms as a frontal system approaches and passes through during June 12-13. It still looks like the main moisture from whatever is left of T.S. Cristobal (expected to move from the Gulf of Mexico into the central US) moves into Canada and misses this area, which is in need of significant rain. Dry weather is expected with lower humidity by June 14 and quick-moving systems may send cloudiness and warmer air back into the region by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 16-20)

High pressure dominant in eastern Canada and weak systems in the US indicates a drier and slightly cooler than average pattern for our region for mid June. Some guidance indicates a little more grim a picture, with a broad low pressure area evolving to turn the region wetter. While I do think that general pattern is possible, the wetter weather would likely evolve further south, keeping this area on the drier side.

129 thoughts on “Saturday June 6 2020 Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    re: blog format
    Not terrible, but still doesn’t do much for me.
    Kind of plain if you ask me.
    Still favor Thursday’s format.

  3. Thanks TK !
    I agree with JpDave and Scott.

    Great job being 2 to 3 days ahead on Sunday’s forecast. Everyone else seems to be coming around to what you have been saying since mid week.

  4. I don’t really like the formats having the links at the bottom as this one does.
    Thanks so much for “listening to the people!”

    1. Also, the line spacing is oddly large! It is hard to tell where a new paragraph starts.

  5. I hope folks on the central Gulf Coast take this approaching hybrid storm seriously, in spite of the winds being 50 or 60 mph.

    I am peaking at the Naples pier panaroma webcam and there are some thick, loud 4 to 5 foot swells rolling in, on an otherwise calm Gulf Coast. There is some serious energy to these waves, saying there’s something fairly impressive out in the Gulf generating them.

    Wind field on this hybrid system is very large and well removed from the center. Its not going to be a typical tropical system landfall. But, I think the storm surge warnings are well warranted.

    1. Actual front, which I presume would be igniting the convection, is still out by Albany NY or thereabout.

      Also, despite what that satellite image depicted, all surface observations from Boston to Albany indicated cloudy skies.

      1. The 12z NAM finally is indicating something of a line around 3 to 6pm. If I recall correctly, it hasn’t been bullish at all for any showers/storms.

        I think Boston south is mostly low clouds off the ocean to the south. I think the high angle sun will burn them off. I think there’ll be enough surface warmth in the Boston to JP area for instability by mid afternoon. Question, as discussed in Taunton’s discussion is how much dry air invades the mid layers of the atmosphere. Water Vapor loop looks moderate for moisture. Richest moisture south of South Coast, but not super dry air invading either.

        2. Best I can tell, CT and S. Central MA stand to get the most benefit from any convection.
          Also, the strongest storms.

          2. Thanks TK!
            This format is a little plain for my taste, but not as bad as the first.
            JpDave I hope your right about the location of the biggest storms because we could certainly use some rain around these parts.

            1. Perhaps not. Please
              see WxWatcher’s post below.

              I suppose it depends upon your Short Range Guidance of choice. I am waiting on the HREF.

  11. Thanks TK
    The sun has been out a couple hours now where I am. Will see if I get in on some thunderstorm action this afternoon.

  12. Thanks TK. Not a huge fan of this one, Thursday’s remains my favorite so far.

    Should be a pretty solid line of thunderstorms that comes through SNE between about 2-5PM. It won’t look like much initially but it’ll be a case where the storms strengthen pretty much right overhead, with the I-95 corridor favored for the greatest impacts. Not sure there will be much in the way of “severe” weather by definition, but I could see a lot of 40-50 mph wind gusts and some small hail within the line.

    2. I am thinking a locally strong thunderstorm in a few spots in SNE today. This certainly won’t be a severe weather outbreak.

    1. This is awesome!! Hard to get a really good look at the fish, but based on the fast water and the shininess of the fish, it sure looks like a very very nice rainbow trout. Looks to be something between 15-18 inches and probably 2-3 pounds. Quite a catch for the young man. I am so happy for him.
      Thanks for sharing.

      1. I’ll ask son and also,location. I am guessing River behind his apt in RI but not sure. Thank you.

    2. Btw, If you don’t mind my asking, where was this?
      Was this the West River? Somewhere else?
      thanks

  16. From NWS Boston
    Latest mesoscale analysis already showed an impressive amount of
    CAPE over our region, between 1,500-2,000 J/kg. Mid level lapse
    rates remained barely moist-adiabatic, which is not favorable
    for widespread strong convection. That doesn`t mean that that a
    few thunderstorms cannot become strong to severe later today.
    Damaging straight-line wind will be the primary threat.

    Regional radars showed showers already starting to develop
    across eastern NY state. These were associated with a pre-
    frontal trough, which will be one of the convergence mechanisms
    available to us today. The other will be a cold front, which
    was still farther west across upstate and central NY. Based on
    the current timing, this front should be moving across our
    region during the time of peak heating.

    If you will be outside this afternoon, keep an eye on the sky.
    Move indoors if you can see lightning or hear thunder from your
    location.

  17. Now using iPad and agree with all the comments on two days ago…..was it two? And also the comments re navigation links at bottom. Thanks again for including us in your decision. I now look forward to both your forecast and seeing the new design

    And wow …..hyphenation even applies to comments.

  19. Layout… I like simplicity, and I like the fonts on this one, but the overall layout is kind of a sleeper to be honest. I feel like I’m typing on an electric typewriter with a blank sheet of paper. Thursday’s is also my favorite so far. Knowing what tomorrow’s looks like, that may be the other stronger candidate. I have one more after that to post on Monday, and then for the remainder of next week you may see the style change around randomly as I explore the options in each one. My aim is to have a new layout decided on and implemented by 2 weeks from today (June 20).

    WxW… This may be a great example of watching pop up storms organize into a line of convection in live laboratory format. In other words, I am probably going to do a little bit of chasing this afternoon, although I probably won’t need to go far at all. It will somewhat depend on how the thing looks as it goes by and whether or not it still has some intensification potential left as it heads into southeastern MA. At the very least it may be rather picturesque. We’ll see how that goes.

    1. This comment string uses hyphens! I hate those (I know I said it yesterday too). Well, I’m definitely not voting for either of them!

  20. JPD responding to above re fishing

    Haha. He lives in Cumberland but I’m not sure where they were fishing. He goes all over. I asked but know they are house hunting this afternoon. Will let you know

    BTW. The rod grandson is using was my favorite rod. It has seen three generations of success.

    2. If that fish was caught in the Blackstone River in
      Cumberland, ALL the MORE IMPRESSIVE!!!

  22. Pretty decent storms erupting over Eastern NY and Western MA.
    Perhaps a very interesting afternoon ahead of us.

  25. A line of showers and storms forming out in the Berkshires. No warnings yet. Will see what happens as that line moves east.

  27. A storm just starting to pop to my west in northern monson, the sun is out full here but can hear the thunder in the distance. Deep distance rumbles. I’ve always thought it was neat to be in the sun and some blue sky with thunder in the distance.

  29. Just picked up about 0.3″ rain in a 25 min downpour. Not a severe storm by an my means. A few rumbles and flashes. But 0.3″ is the most rain we have had since we picked up 0.5″ on May 16. The previous 3 weeks we had received 0.1″ total. Dry conditions to moderate drought is going to become more common this summer in parts of SNE.

    Peaked here at 89. I am usually a bit more aggressive on temps particularly this spring where I think temps have been under forecast due to model error but I was probably 2-3 degrees cool today.

    My weather thoughts remain the same. More dry, cool shots come but are short lived. Consistent all spring. Cool has been over modeled and too prolonged. More so away from the coast. Generally we get 1-2 days below normal. 3_4 days trend normal to above and then repeat.

    Bet on dry. Even this end week period there were models that had Thursday night through Saturday with 0.75″-1.0″ and then reality stepped in.

  31. One heck of a storm over central MA right now. Radar indicating winds ~60-75mph on the lowest tilt. Damaging gusts likely ongoing at the surface.

  33. Very high wind with this storm. Had a gust I would estimate high 50s to maybe 60. Seconds before the torrential rain. Big producer with this. Not much lightning.

    1. …A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT
      FOR SOUTHWESTERN WORCESTER AND SOUTHEASTERN HAMPDEN COUNTIES…

      At 243 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Charlton, or 10
      miles southwest of Worcester, moving east at 30 mph.

      HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

      SOURCE…Radar indicated. Trees were downed in West Brookfield and
      Monson from this storm.

      IMPACT…Expect damage to trees and power lines.

      Locations impacted include…
      Worcester, Shrewsbury, Grafton, Holden, Webster, Southbridge, Auburn,
      Oxford, Millbury, Charlton, Palmer, Spencer, Dudley, Leicester,
      Thompson, Sturbridge, Sutton, Monson, Douglas and Rutland.

  36. Thanks TK. Agree with most others….I liked the Thursday format the best, Friday format second best, and today is probably #3 but don’t like the hyphens either!

    Still sunny and downright hot here with temps now pushing 90! Fuel for the fire. Storms getting very close…

  37. Maybe because it is simply getting closer to the radar, but echos
    looking more impressive with time. Quite the storm out there and is on a bee line to Boston. This may be one of those times where
    the city actually meets severe criteria. We shall see.

  38. JPD. Yes on Blackstone and rainbow trout. Well done. Sin says river not clean enough to eat them so he catches and releases quickly so they are not injured

    1. That is truly amazing! I really mean that. That is a tremendous catch!!

      We have eaten at River Falls Restaurant in Woonsocket,
      right on the Blackstone. Nice restaurant and beautiful view of the river.

  39. Vicki any loose items that can blow I would say secure them if you can. These storms mean business

  40. This confirms I am not a fan of this setup. Having trouble finding new comments quickly.

  47. Figures. Looks like it’s getting WIMPY on the section that
    will be coming through the city.

  50. That nasty looking storm looks lined up for South Shore.

    Western Horizon is darkening with thick cirrus blowoff.

    1. It is fast and it is nasty. Some of Sutton power out and at least one tree down. All closer to center of town from what I’m hearing

  52. Pretty uneventful here. Some initial gusty winds then briefly heavy rain and rumbles of thunder.

    Mass Pike corridor, Vicki and SC definitely took the brunt of this one!

  54. We just lost a huge tree but it fell perfectly so no damage to the house and didn’t hit any cars on the road. It was during the torrential rain.

  55. Where are you located? I read a tweet from Pete Bouchard with the wind signatures showing and he thought a microburst was in progress in Bellingham.

  56. Really dark to the north, near the NWS-Norton office. I live about two miles south of there.

  57. WIMPORAMA here in JP. Never even rained all that hard and not
    much thunder and lightning.

  61. Wow, did that storm fall apart ! We have some light rain. I don’t think we’ve come close to a tenth of an inch of rainfall.

  62. So because of my current health and a few other obligations I did not leave as early as I would have liked, but I did end up chasing. My best bet was to go south and try to get ahead of where I knew the storms would pretty much last the longest. So it was a gamble, go south, but not TOO far south because the HRRR, nailing things left and right, predicting a quick change to out-flow dominated storms and rapid dissipation of the line approaching the South Shore, so I kind of split the difference and settled on a higher elevation off 139 in Pembroke MA. I got a decent lightning show through Boston, mostly just south of the tunnel, when a new storm was intensifying in the Milton area (Blue Hill had a gust over 50 MPH), but there was nowhere for me to really pull off and see it easily so I just opted to keep heading south. I did end up getting the line just as it became outflow dominated, and it gave me gusts in the 35-45 MPH range briefly, along with a few bursts of heavy rain (not torrential), but mostly lighter to moderate. Lightning was very limited by the time the storm got to me, which was not a surprise given the lack of updraft. Here is a photo of the shelf cloud as the line approached my location just off 139 in Pembroke.

    https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/102832578_10158493437072265_6590852086168342039_o.jpg?_nc_cat=105&_nc_sid=110474&_nc_ohc=8ttkGzCzmdIAX8HSKU8&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-1.xx&oh=99cdd4279c7b6a3b1f24b61cf8b29b0e&oe=5F007DFF

  63. Beautiful evening here. Light wind out of the NW and dew points down into the 50s but temps rebounded more than I thought they would. Got back up to 84 here around 6.

    TK good shot of an impressive shelf. You are so right – updraft was a real limiting factor for lightning. Radar gave me thoughts of wider spread winds approaching 70 but ground truth probably more like 35-40 except for Bellingham Franklin Foxboro Sharon Canton Norwood area of Norfolk County.

  64. TK, I hope you’re doing allright, healthwise. Take care.

    The rain and T-storm here in Back Bay was not impressive.

  67. Power just went out in Uxbridge. Daughter is telling me many trees down. Same with north Attleboro. Could it be microburst

      1. I think so. We have a ton of damage around town. Worst damage in a long time that I have seen.

        1. North you must have been on that the SE edge of that cell that went hard through Bellingham Franklin Wrentham Cumberland RI area. Straightline winds will deliver notable impact even we don’t scale them like other destructive weather events.

          Strong cell just moved through central Middlesex county. I saw it max out at 63dbz. That’s probably big hail.

          1. Daughter and family are headed to Ashland to pick up generator from SILs shop. Route 16 Uxbridge is lined with emergency vehicles and trees down

  68. I intercepted that storm in middlesex county in waltham. strong winds and mostly pea sized hail. saw bunch of branches and a tree down. Best night storm I have seen in a while. I think its my first time seeing hail at night too.

  69. Soooo JMA thanks to you my budding 11 year old met now knows the difference between microburst and straight line winds. According to her mom, She terrified her sister reading it but she does get it

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